The Ultimate State-by-State Guide to Likely Super Tuesday Delegate Results

By TexasGringo Posted in Comments (12) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

MONDAY UPDATE: DIARY WAS ORIGINALLY POSTED FRIDAY EVENING. THERE ARE LOTS OF NEW POLLS OUT SINCE THEN. THE INDIVIDUAL STATE ANALYSES HAVE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

For those who want to skip the detailed analysis, here's the bottom line: McCain 657, Romney 264, Huckabee 52.
UPDATE TOTALS BASED ON NEW POLL RESULTS: MCCAIN 659, ROMNEY 300, HUCKABEE 52, PAUL 8. THE THREE STATES TO REALLY KEEP AN EYE ON TUESDAY ARE CALIFORNIA, GEORGIA, AND MISSOURI.

For those who read on, a few notes before the state-by-state analysis. The basic information regarding type of primary, number of delegates, and how they are selected comes from wikipedia. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008. For delegates, the first number listed is the number of district level delegates, the second is the number of at-large and bonus delegates, and the third is the number of state party delegates (unpledged even after Super Tuesday). For latest polls, I have taken the average of all state polls reported on Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html) that were taken entirely or primarily on or after January 27 (the day after the Florida primary)(usually only one, sometimes two). If there is no post-Florida poll, but are prior January 2008 polls, I’ve listed the average of those results, but marked it with an asterisk.

As to predictions, I’ve relied heavily on the most recent polling. Many states allocate delegates based on results in individual congressional districts, however, when one candidate has a significant lead statewide, I’ve generally assumed that he will win all the districts. If the polling is close, I’ve split the district delegates somewhat proportionately. If there is no polling, I’ve explained my reasoning in the comments section for how I’ve predicted the state. I've also relied somewhat on the recent trend of McCain and Romney gaining and Huckabee losing support. As the race becomes increasingly perceived as a two-man race and as McCain and Romney both seem to have much more cash than Huckabee, I think it is likely for this trend to continue.

Note that in my predictions, I have not allocated any of the state party delegates, since they are unpledged delegates and not allocated based on the Super Tuesday results.
UPDATE: ACCORDING TO THIS ELECTION GUIDE http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/supertuesday/republicanp... SOME OF THE STATE PARTY DELEGATES ARE PLEDGED TO THE STATE WINNER. WHERE THAT'S THE CASE, I'VE UPDATED THE RESULT TO INCLUDE THEM.

State: Alabama
Type: primary, open
Delegates: 21/24/3
How Selected: modified WTA district + proportional other
Latest Polls: M37 R18 H29
UPDATED POLL AVG: M40 R17 H33
Comments: McCain has surged since Florida, Huckabee is holding steady, and Romney is up. Since McCain has a large lead and seems to be gaining, I’m giving him all the district delegates and splitting the other proportionally.
UPDATE: I MIGHT HAVE WRITTEN HUCKABEE OFF TOO EARLY.
Prediction: M30 R6 H9
UPDATE: DISTRICT DELEGATES ARE SPLIT 2-1 IF NO CANDIDATE RECEIVES A MAJORITY, SO I'M GIVING MCCAIN 2 FOR EACH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT AND HUCKABEE 1, WHILE STILL SPLITTING THE OTHER DELEGATES PROPORTIONATELY. M25 R5 H15

State: Alaska
Type: caucus, closed
Delegates: 3/23/3
How Selected: district/state convention
Latest Polls: none known
Comments: My sense is that Romney will do relatively well, but since I’ve got no hard data, I won’t even venture a guess here. Need some local insight.
UPDATE: AS MY GUT INDICATED, ROMNEY SEEMS TO AT LEAST BE COMPETITIVE HERE AS HE HAS DISPATCHED A SON TO CAMPAIGN. I'LL GO AHEAD AND GUESS THAT ROMNEY GETS THE BULK OF THESE DELEGATES. PAUL IS ALSO RUMORED TO BE STRONG IN ALASKA.
Prediction: ???
UPDATE: M5 R15 P6

State: Arizona
Type: presidential preference election
Delegates: 24/26/3
How Selected: statewide WTA
Latest Polls: M40 R23 H9
UPDATED POLL AVG: M41 R25 H8
Comments: McCain should easily win his home state.
Prediction: M50

State: Arkansas
Type: primary, open
Delegates: 12/19/3
How Selected: modified WTA district + proportional other (WTA if 50%+)
Latest Polls: none known
Comments: Presumably Huckabee should dominate his home state. However, it is unclear whether he can surpass the 50% mark. Given his fading nomination hopes and the antipathy of many Arkansas Republicans, I’m very doubtful he can do it. Heck, even McCain is not polling over 50% in Arizona. So, I’ll assume Huckabee outperforms his current best poll support by about 10% (which would give him about 40-45% of the vote), wins every district, and look to Tennessee and Missouri to guestimate result for the statewide proportionate “other” delegates.
Prediction: M7 R4 H20
UPDATE: DISTRICT DELEGATES ARE SPLIT 2-1 IF NO CANDIDATE RECEIVES A MAJORITY, SO I'M GIVING HUCKABEE 2 FOR EACH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT AND MCCAIN 1, WHILE STILL SPLITTING THE OTHER DELEGATES PROPORTIONATELY. M11 R4 H16

State: California
Type: primary, closed
Delegates: 159/11/3
How Selected: WTA district + WTA other
Latest Polls: M35 R27 H13
UPDATED POLL AVG: M38 R35 H10
Comments: McCain has a good lead, but hardly insurmountable. News reports indicate that Romney will go on the air here. Unlike other states, McCain has not really increased his lead. It’s unclear how much, if any, Arnold’s endorsement will matter to Republican voters. This state seems like Romney’s best bet to stem the tide as it’s currently close, there’s a ton of delegates at stake, the primary is closed (big advantage to Romney), there is not insubstantial Mormon support, he can outspend McCain on ads, and the immigration issue should favor Romney in among Republican voters. I’ll guess Romney makes his major effort here and pulls close to even. Huckabee’s support continues to be stagnant and he should be shut out of the delegates.
UPDATE: MY GUESS THAT ROMNEY WILL MAKE A BIG PUSH HERE AND CLOSE THE GAP LOOKS TO BE CORRECT. STILL DOESN'T LOOK LIKE HE'LL WIN OVERALL, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE.
Prediction: M92 R78
UPDATE: ROMNEY SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOMENTUM HERE. MCCAIN IS ALREADY DOWNPLAYING THE SIGNIFICANCE OF A LOSS. IT'S REALLY TOO CLOSE TO CALL. I'LL SPLIT THE BABY AND SAY MCCAIN WINS THE STATE OVERALL BUT ROMNEY WINS MORE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS DUE TO HIS SUPERIOR ORGANIZATION IN FOCUSING UPON DISTRICTS WITH FEW REPUBLICANS. M86 R84

State: Colorado
Type: caucus, closed
Delegates: 21/22/3
How Selected: district/state convention
Latest Polls: M24 R43 H17
Comments: Not exactly sure how the delegate selection process works. Prior caucuses seem to be something in between WTA and strict proportionate, so that the winner gets a disproportionately large share of the delegates, but not all, so I’ll assume something like this is how Colorado works
Prediction: M13 R28 H2

State: Connecticut
Type: primary, closed
Delegates: 15/12/3
How Selected: statewide WTA
Latest Polls: M48 R29 H7
UPDATED POLL AVG: M45 R23 H7
Comments: This one is not in play.
Prediction: M27

State: Delaware
Type: primary, closed
Delegates: 3/12/3
How Selected: statewide WTA
Latest Polls: none known
UPDATE: M41 R35 H7
Comments: There’s an October poll showing Giuliani with a big lead, with McCain and Romney very close and far behind. It seems like most of Giuliani’s voters from back then have migrated to McCain. Given McCain’s strength in the most recent polls available in nearby states (Maryland, New York, New Jersey), I assume McCain has a sizeable lead here.
UPDATE: AN ARG POLL SHOWS THIS RACE CLOSER THAN I EXPECTED. ROMNEY COULD PULL AN UPSET.
Prediction: M15
UPDATE: M18

State: Georgia
Type: primary, modified open
Delegates: 39/30/3
How Selected: WTA district + WTA other
Latest Polls: M35 R24 H24
UPDATED POLL AVG: M32 R29 H25
Comments: There is only one recent poll and it is a significant change from a couple of earlier polls in January. Basically, McCain is way up, Romney is somewhat up, and Huckabee is down (even though two candidates dropped out in the interim). It’s possible the one recent poll is an aberration, but I’m guessing it’s an accurate measure of shifting opinion.
UPDATE: ROMNEY HAS CLOSED THE GAP HERE AND COULD WIN THIS STATE. IF HE'S TO KEEP FROM BEING BLOWN OUT THIS AND MISSOURI ARE STATES THAT HE REALLY NEEDS TO TAKE.
Prediction: M69
UPDATE: ROMNEY AND HUCKABEE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GIVE THEM SOME OF THE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS. M57 R9 H6

State: Illinois
Type: presidential preference primary + delegate election, open
Delegates: 57/10/3
How Selected: district delegate election + unpledged state delegates
Latest Polls: M34 R26 H16
UPDATED POLL AVG: M39 R23 H15
Comments: Not exactly sure how the delegate selection process works in Illinois. Based on how I read wikipedia, I’ll assume the districts are WTA and that the other delegates are not awarded to anyone at this time. Huckabee looks too far behind to win any district. Romney, however, may be close enough to win some, so I’ll just guess that McCain and Romney split them roughly proportionate to their current polling numbers.
UPDATE: BASED ON COMMENT BELOW, I'M ASSUMING THE OTHER DELEGATES WILL BE AWARDED TO THE STATEWIDE WINNER AND PREDICTION IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. ALSO, WITH THE WIDENING POLL NUMBERS, I'M ASSUMING MCCAIN WILL WIN A GREATER PROPORTION OF THE DISTRICT DELEGATES
Prediction: M33 R24
UPDATE: M55 R12

State: Massachusetts
Type: primary, modified open
Delegates: 30/10/3
How Selected: statewide proportional (must surpass some minimum?)
Latest Polls: M32 R54 H5
Comments: Poor Romney. In one of the few states he dominates, his home state, the delegate selection process works against him. This is the only state to award all delegates proportionately, and one of few to favor Romney.
Prediction: M14 R26

State: Minnesota
Type: caucus, open
Delegates: 24/14/3
How Selected: BPOU/district/state convention
Latest Polls*: M41 R17 H22
Comments: The poll above was taken during the week before Florida. Presumably, McCain’s lead has increased, if anything.
Prediction: Not exactly sure how the delegate selection process works. Prior caucuses seem to be something in between WTA and strict proportionate, so I’ll give McCain, the runaway leader, a share of the delegates greater than his current polling numbers suggest. I’ll also assume a post-Florida Huckabee fade.
M26 R7 H5

State: Missouri
Type: primary, open
Delegates: 27/28/3
How Selected: statewide WTA
Latest Polls: M34 R30 H28
UPDATED POLL AVG: M34 R29 H26
Comments: Since this is a WTA state and Romney is within striking distance, he may want to make a major push here. His number from the one poll above is way up compared to prior polls, so it may overstate his support. Romney has a chance if he can win over Huckabee supporters. Huckabee may also make a major effort in this state, as a prior poll had him narrowly in the lead. I’m going with the current leader, but this one could change from M55 to R55 or H55.
UPDATE: MCCAIN MAINTAINING HIS LEAD, BUT IT'S STILL CLOSE. ROMNEY REALLY NEEDS TO WIN THIS ONE TO KEEP THE DELEGATE COUNT ANYWHERE NEAR CLOSE.
Prediction: M55
UPDATE: M58

State: Montana
Type: invited caucus
Delegates: 3/19/3
How Selected: statewide WTA
Latest Polls: none known
Comments: I’m really just guessing on this one. Considering how well Romney has done in the Wyoming and Nevada caucuses, however, I suspect he is the favorite here.
UPDATE: ONLY COUNTY REPUBLICAN CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBERS VOTE. GIVEN ROMNEY'S ORGANIZATIONAL EDGE AND GREATER SUPPORT AMONG MORE ACTIVE REPUBLICANS, THIS SHOULD HELP HIM.
Prediction: R22
UPDATE: R25

State: New Jersey
Type: primary, modified open
Delegates: 39/10/3
How Selected: statewide WTA
Latest Polls: M46 R27 H8
UPDATED POLL AVG: M49 R26 H7
Comments: Should not even be contested.
Prediction: M49
UPDATE: M52

State: New York
Type: primary, closed
Delegates: 87/11/3
How Selected: statewide WTA
Latest Polls: M55 R21 H7
UPDATED POLL AVG: M55 R24 H8
Comments: Should not even be contested.
Prediction: M98

State: North Dakota
Type: caucus, closed
Delegates: 3/20/3
How Selected: statewide WTA
UPDATE: APPARENTLY WTA ONLY IF CANDIDATE RECEIVES 65% OF VOTE.
Latest Polls: none known
Comments: My comments regarding Montana apply equally here.
Prediction: R23
UPDATE: M6 R15 P2

State: Oklahoma
Type: primary, closed
Delegates: 15/23/3
How Selected: WTA district + WTA other
Latest Polls: M37 R19 H28
UPDATED POLL AVG: M39 R20 H26
Comments: Since the previous poll, pre-Florida, McCain is up 8, Romney is up 11, and Huckabee is down 3. It’s difficult for me to see how Huckabee turns this around to win statewide and I expect McCain’s lead over Huckabee to grow.
UPDATE: AS PREDICTED TWO DAYS AGO, MCCAIN HAS INCREASED HIS LEAD AND HUCKABEE HAS FADED. DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A MCCAIN SWEEP HERE.
Prediction: M38

State: Tennessee
Type: primary, closed
Delegates: 27/25/3
How Selected: district proportional (WTA if 50%+) + other proportional (WTA if 50%+)
Latest Polls: M33 R18 H25
UPDATED POLL AVG: M29 R23 H26
Comments: In the only other poll prior to the most recent, Huckabee trailed Thompson by one percent (25-24). Now, McCain has surged, Romney is up, and Huckabee’s support is flat. I expect Huckabee’s support to fade, and McCain and Romney to increase, although I’ll guess no one tops 50% statewide.
Prediction: M23 R13 H16
UPDATE: M20 R16 H16

State: Utah
Type: primary, modified open
Delegates: 9/24/3
How Selected: statewide WTA
Latest Polls: none known
UPDATED POLL AVG: M4 R84
Comments: Based on Romney’s overwhelming support among Mormons in Nevada and the large Mormon population in Utah, it’s safe to predict an overwhelming Romney victory here.
UPDATE: WHAT AN INCREDIBLE POLL RESULT. I CANNOT THINK OF A FRONT RUNNER EVER BEING SO TOTALLY TROUNCED. SAFE TO SAY MORMONS LIKE MITT. HUCKABEE PROBABLY HAD NEGATIVE POLL NUMBERS HERE!
Prediction: R33
UPDATE: R36

State: West Virginia
Type: convention, modified open
Delegates: 9/18/3 (the 9 district delegates will be selected May 13)
How Selected: multiple ballot WTA
Latest Polls: none known
Comments: I suspect that the closest state demographically to West Virginia for which we have recent poll results is Tennessee, where McCain (33%) leads Huckabee (25%) with Romney in third (18%). Since I have nothing better to go on, I’ll use these numbers and predict a McCain victory.
UPDATE: ROMNEY DOES WELL AT CAUCUSES AND THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF ROMNEY HAVING STRENGTH HERE.
Prediction: M18
UPDATE: R18

Predicted Pledged Delegate Totals Won on Super Tuesday:
McCain 657
Romney 264
Huckabee 52

Current Pledged Delegate Totals Won Pre-Super Tuesday:
McCain 93
Romney 59
Huckabee 39

Predicted Pledged Delegate Totals After Super Tuesday:
McCain 657 + 93 = 750
Romney 264 + 59 = 323
Huckabee 52 + 39 = 91

In addition to these pledged delegates, there are 63 state party delegates from Super Tuesday states who are unpledged plus 21 unpledged party delegates from pre-Super Tuesday states that I’ve not tried to predict. I’ve also not predicted who will win Alaska’s 26 pledged delegates.

Thus, based on my analysis of the current polling numbers, I think it is safe to say that McCain is set to dominate Super Tuesday and essentially wrap up the nomination. I wouldn’t say Romney has no chance, but something must happen to change the current dynamic if he’s to live to fight on past next Tuesday.

Interestingly, Giuliani’s dropping out and Huckabee’s fading away have hurt, rather than helped, Romney. In every state in which Giuliani and Huckabee have lost strength, McCain has been the primary beneficiary in terms of delegates.

This is great stuff. I'm going to print it out and use it to keep score sunday afternoon. Thanks for taking the time.

-exits

Thanks. There's still a lot of blanks to fill in on some of the states. Hopefully, those familiar with these can shed some light on what they're likely to do.

We directly elect delegates here, so you can vote for a delegate for each candidate if you wanted to. I am pretty sure the at-large delegates are given to the winner.

McCain '08

If there are three delegates per congressional district, does that mean you can vote for pu to three different delegates? Are the delegates somehow associated with the candidates' names on the ballot?

Let's take advantage of DNC's mistakes, and consolidate around McCain and win this thing!

Romney and Huckabee supporters. Currently only 8% of GOP voters have had a chance to have their say. This pushing by some McCain supporters to consolidate before even 10% of the votes have been cast is off-putting and does nothing but cause resentment for those who wish to have a say in who we select.

There will come a time when all those whose candidates didn't make will have to reassess their options, but the day before Super Tuesday isn't it.

"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."

I call it like I see it; not how I want it to be. Also, no where do I call for Romney or Huckabee supporters to consolidate behind McCain. In fact, at this stage, I think everyone should support whoever they want to.

FWIW, I was long ago on record as a Brownback supporter. I then leaned toward Thompson. Currently, I lean toward Huckabee, although I don't think he has much (any?) of a chance and I have no emotional investment in his campaign. I don't like either Romney or McCain, and, if it's still a race when Texas votes in March, I don't know which one I'll hold my nose and vote for.

The second after I post, I realize you weren't responding to me. Doh!

The straw poll is just that... it has nothing to do with actual delegates. The national delegates are whoever gets elected from the state convention in a few months. So I wouldn't count Minnesota in your totals if you are trying to count only pledged delegates. Some (all?) of the other caucuses probably work the same way, with delegates not actually being selected until the state convention.
---
Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman

My biggest quibble is that WV could very well go Romney. It's a "convention" which I assume is like the caucuses that he does well at. Primaries favor McCain because all Rs vote. Caucuses attract the highly motivated which as RS and talk radio show are a bit more pro-Romney than Republicans in general.

______________________________________
Donate to the Rs in Close Senate Races through Slatecard

WV is really just a guess since there are no good poll numbers. Romney has also shown some upward movement in Tennessee and Georgia since I originally posted. So, it could definitely go Romney.

and the even-handed way in which you presented your facts. Nicely done and recommended.

"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."

 
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