Sorry, but no one is going to win, check out the delegate math
By Thunder Posted in 2008 — Comments (124) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
First it is unlikely that any candidate will drop before Super Tuesday. Second, it is unlikely that any candidate we get the big MO. Winning one state won’t do it. It also doesn’t look like any candidate is going to run away with it all.
A look at the delegate math suggest no one is going to win. Folks, we are headed for unknown territory.
Delegates needed to win the nomination: roughly 1200 out of about 2400 (after adjustment to the original total of 2488 for state penalties assessed shifting their primaries early).
The current and projected delegate count before super Tuesday is as follows.
Current Proj NH Proj Mich Proj Nev Proj S Car Proj Florida
Romney 26 5 6 5 4 11
Huckabee 20 2 6 4 8 13
Thompson 6 0 1 2 4 5
McCain 3 5 4 1 4 6
Giuliani 1 0 3 5 4 14
---------------------------------
Total Romney 57
Total Huckabee 53
Total Thompson 18
Total McCain 23
Total Giuliani 27
This brings us to super Tuesday;
The following is a list of winner take all states.
Rudy Giuliani is expected to win New Jersey and New York on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008, and those states award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis.[1] That will give Giuliani 153 delegates towards the roughly 1000 needed to win the nomination.
Total Giuliani 180
John McCain will likely win Arizona, which is another winner-take-all state, giving him 53 delegates on Super Tuesday.
Total McCain 76
Mike Huckabee should win the winner-take-all state of Georgia, to earn him 72 points on Super Tuesday.
Total Huckabee 117
Mitt Romney is strong in the winner-take-all states of Massachusetts, Vermont and Utah, which yield a total of 96 delegates.
Total Romney 153
Fred Thompson can be expected to win the winner-take-all state of Tennessee, assuming he wins a majority of the votes, for a total of 55 delegates.
Total Thompson 73
================
Total Giuliani 180
Total Romney 153
Total Huckabee 117
Total McCain 76
Total Thompson 73
==================
Grand Total……… 599
Delegates needed to win the nomination: roughly 1200 out of about 2400. The available delegates 2400-599 = 1801
Total Giuliani 1200 – 180 = 1020 or 56% of the Remaining
Total Romney 1200 - 153 = 1047 or 58% of the Remaining
Total Huckabee 1200 - 117 = 1083 or 60% of the Remaining
Total McCain 1200 - 76 = 1124 or 62% of the Remaining
Total Thompson 1200 – 73 = 1127 or 62% of the Remaining
The likely of any candidate getting the amount of the remaining delegates are likely to be slim and none.
The Republican Party does not have superdelegates. It does, however, have 463 unpledged delegates, 123 of whom are Republican National Committee members.[1]
Links:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdelegates
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=R
http://www.conservapedia.com/2008_Republican_Primary
It doesn't matter if he wins or loses, its no more than one delegate difference. Unless a candidate can string 3 or 4 victories together, I just don't see the big MO.
Just look at the movement in polls since Iowa. Huckabee is up and Romney is down. Romney didn't actually lose Iowa by all that much. But, the media narrative was all about how well Huckabee did and how poorly Romney did. It will be the same with New Hampshire.
... that it excludes the fact that if Romney loses NH he will have lost the two of the three key states in his election strategy. He was supposed to win Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan. He's put a lot of money and people in all those states, and they were key to giving him any kind of momentum going into Super Tuesday. Now he's lost two of those three states, and Michigan isn't looking that good either.
The whole argument for his campaign has been that he was the most electable conservative candidate. His conservatism has always been open to question, and now his electability is seriously in question as well. I still predict that he will make a last stand in Michigan, which means that the good folks of that state had better prepare themselves to have their mailboxes stuffed with dozens of brochures and "informational" letters about how the negative qualities of Huckabee, McCain, Rudy, and Fred. I don't think it will work any better than it did in Iowa and New Hampshire, but the Romney camp doesn't seem to have much of a learning curve and at this point it's probably too late to change their ways anyway.
Hang all traitors and secessionists! Hang them high!
- Me
you are counting second place as a loss.
Ron Paul lost. Duncan Hunter lost. Even Giuliani lost. They all have yet to place in the top 3 in any race.
Romney has won once and taken second place twice. I will grant you that he was counting on winning Iowa and New Hampshire. Those are setbacks, no question. But even taking second has still allowed him to pick up delegates. He's certainly in a stronger position right now than Fred Thompson or Rudy Giuliani. McCain and Huckabee have a little momentum with their wins, but not enough to steamroll any of the other Big 5 candidates out of the race.
Romney may not win, but he will have a say in who does and doesn't.
... when what you really needed was a win. Romney & Co haven't been shy about their Iowa-New Hampshire-Michigan strategy. They've been banking on that working all year long. Now it's down to Michigan. I'm not saying that Romney is totally dead at this point, but let me put it this way: He must win Michigan. If he doesn't win Michigan the only reason for him to stay in the race is to play the part of spoiler (as your last sentence seemed to indicate), and that shouldn't be what any presidential campaign is about.
Hang all traitors and secessionists! Hang them high!
- Me
First off, you're right. Mitt needs Michigan like he needs air. I've seen people suggest that a win in Nevada might get him through if Michigan is another close loss. Not sure. It'd be better if he won, though (duh!).
But more to the point, Mitt's monmentum strategy was to combat a clear national front-runner. With Guiliani coming down to mingle with the common folk nationally, it opens the possibility for this "delegate math".
Namely because the Democrats are allowed to vote in our primary and have no real one of their own. Hillary Clinton is on the only major candidate on their ballot. The Democrats have no delegates.
So their voters and all liberal independents are free to vote in the Republican Primaries. It cheapens the entire election and opens this thing up for major tampering.
I think Romney can and probably should win Nevada. The demographics don't favor Huckabee, and illegal immigration will kill McCain there is my guess.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
Texas and Ohio, suddenly will become important if this plays out. My guess it will and they will become late in the day "Iowas."
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
You are correct to a point.
However, what you are ignoring is
a) cash flow
and
b) momentum
Finally, keep in mind that most of the rest of the states are not proportional. A good number of them are as follows:
1 delegate per congressional district which goes to the winner in that district.
12 that go to the winner of the whole state.
In other words, someone is going to break out in the south and win a bunch of states.
Thompson or McCain will gone after South Carolina, Super Tuesday at the latest which will even up the odds.
Huckabee will either be gone or be rolling after Super Tuesday. Out of cash or on his way to the nomination. A LOT will depend (for these there) on what happens in SC.
Heck, McCain could be gone tomorrow or at least after SC.
I realize that is the conventional wisdom, but it isn't happening. Heck, even Duncan Hunter isn't dropping, and You can bet that Ron Paul is going to grab some delegates (actually, he already has).
Thompson is completely broke, but he isn't dropping. The candidates are finding other ways to get their message.
Look at the Huckasters I am not going to run this ad, but here it is. He did it because he was out of money, but wanted to get it out.
Also, your discounting the interenet, which is virtual free medium. All you have to do is buy some mailing lists (not very costly, and send a bunch of e-mail.
This is the first Presidential Election where I believe the internet might play a deciding role. All those candidates are hanging around because they to see the strong posibility of a brokered convention. To play a part all they need is enough to anty up when the cards are dealt.. This is going to get very interesting...
the question - will an unsettled nomination - perhaps even headed into the convention - be good for the eventual nominee, creating intense interest, or harmful, leaving him wounded? I tend to think it will help, with the caveat that the threat of deserters is perhaps magnified if Rudy or Mike is chosen at a brokered convention.
and once the Obamatons wake up and realize they've bought an empty suit, a pig in a poke which no amount of lipstick will make any less extreme or the antithesis of unifying, it'll be too late.
Thanks for your work on this.
Super Tuesday has definitely changed the primaries when several candidates are polling fairly evenly.
The Democrats may face the same issue unless Obama really starts running away with it. Their three candidates are quite even at this point. If Obama continues to win states he may pick up major momentum and run away with it. If Clinton and Edwards win a few states and the breakdown stays 29%, 30% and 38%, as it was in Iowa, I don't see any of the three dropping before February 5th.
On our side with 5 candidates splitting the vote pretty evenly your scenario is even more likely. It is hard to picture any of the 5 being able to string together enough consecutive victories to build the necessary momentum. A brokered convention is looking like a strong possibility.
I honestly believe that this election (both the GOP and Democrat side) will be studied for years to come. I would venture to say that 50 years from now, people will look back at the primary and general election of 2007/2008 and still be talking about how crazy it was (on both sides).
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
...primaries to your analysis? Either based on current polling or anticipated polling factoring momentum?
Good post.
Mr. Ed
Straight from the Horse's Mouth
Not enough information out their, but from a statistical analysis point of view, I think we are going to end up with the following.
Rudy 31% or 744 delegates
Romney 27% or 648 delegates
Huckabee 22% or 528 delegates
McCain 10% or 240 delegates
Thompson 9% or 216 delegates
Other 1% or 24 delegates.
Then there are the uncommitted delegates.
Bottom, line, I don't think Huckabee gets the nomination, but it puts him in the position of choosing between Rudy or Romney. Of course, there will be a price for that, and it is likely the VP spot.
Firstly, great post, I was thinking about doing one similar to this but I found it too exhaustive.
But the idea that in this scenario Huckabee would be in a position to endorse either Rudy or Romney doesn't seem as realistic as Huckabee either endorsing or being endorsed by McCain and Thompson. Given Huckabee's great respect for McCain, he may decide to sacrifice his third place lead to fourth place McCain. Huckabee would see himself at a crossroads where he could either serve as VP to Rudy (Definitely not Romney) or to McCain -- which I think would be much more realistic.
Then again, I really do wonder if this is where Newt Gingrich gives that Lincoln speech he's been talking about.
However, the bottom line is that a brokered convention would be a victory for the Republican nominee -- it would be such a circus that it would generate so much publicity and likely be the only force that truly unites the party - the media will love it and the American people will love it. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
The GOP convention ends September 4, 3 months before Election Day. That is cutting it a little tight on fundraising and organizational preparation, don't you think?
Yes, it would be quite a circus, and the media event of the (young) century. But it would essentially be a contest to see which underfunded, disorganized candidate gets to be on the receiving end of a blow-out in November.
But the difference between Dole '96 and Republicans in '08 is that the Republican nominee won't be going up against a well funded incumbent President, they'll be going up against a possibly broke Clinton or Obama.
I do think that the Republican nominee will start out outraised by the Democrat, but that's been a reality all the way through this race - the positives of a brokered convention outweigh the negatives here, in my opinion.
Definitely a media circus and lots of free publicity. I'm kinda skeptical that a brokered convention leads to party unity, however.
The reason why I believe that a brokered convention may be the only way the Republican Party can maintain its coalition is because I don't think the party will ever unite behind a single candidate unless they are forced to.
I don't think the usual "x drops out, endorses y" will work anymore because of the deep allegiances supporters have with their candidate. A brokered convention could be just the medicine for the party to get excited about the Republican nominee over their respective candidates.
Thanks for the info. Very interesting. This scenario is about as plausible as any of the predictions about someone catching momentum and pulling away. And I definitely think that all of the top 5 will find a way to stay in until Feb 5, no matter how broke they are. That makes your case more plausible.
This is big time southern baptist territory and churches have honed their GOTV efforts over the past few years. They get people to the polls. I'm betting Huck takes it.
LiberalLurker:
Thompson will win undoubtedly win Tennessee if he is still in this race on Feb. 5. If Thompson isn't in the race, then Huckabee will likely win big unless Thompson campaigns in the state for one of the other candidates as their VP. The sight of Thompson in the famous red Chevy pickup driving through TN would be unbeatable in the state.
If Thompson got less than 60% of the vote in Tennessee it would a huge shock. When Thompson ran for re-election to the Senate he received the most votes ever in TN history. Nearly every Republican elected official in TN has endorsed Thompson including the two very popular Senators. Simply put Thompson is a legend in Tennessee. Thompson has received over 80% of the donations coming from TN, and in all honesty Tennesseans has financed most of Thompson's campaign.
If by some weird chance a Huckabee-Thompson ticket (very doubtful) emerged, you could mark every state in the South for them. Don't even think there would be much point campaigning.
Thompson is also likely to win here in Alabama, thats 48 delegates I believe. Last poll I've seen taken of this state was done back in Nov. by Capital Survey Research showing Fred at 26%, Rudy 24%, McCain 12%, and Romney 9%.
If Huckabee wins South Carolina and Flordia then Huckabee will have stuck a serious fork in Fred and then Rudy.
The media will not let Rudy get away with a 2nd or 3rd place finish in Flordia, when his entire strategy has been to win the state. Also, with McCain, Romney and Huckabee decending on the state, I don't think Giuliani will have the momentum to carry 2nd place in FL.
He'll do well in Georgia, too... I haven't seen any polls, but I'm thinking he'll do pretty good...
View my blog at http://preacherskid.blogdrive.com/
Of couse, those current numbers will change significantly if someone can put together two victories in NH, MI, SC, or FL, especially if the victories are sequential.
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
---
Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
But its proportional, so it is unlikely he will carry the whole state. In Arkansas, they have a love/hate relationship for him. So, he may get the a plurality of the votes, but he won't get them all. Also, remember, other candidates will have other states they doe well in.
Tuesday 5 February 2008: 31 of 34 of Arkansas's delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in today's Arkansas Presidential Primary.
12 district delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 4 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates. These delegates are allocated to the presidential contenders as follows:
If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (more than 50%), that candidate is allocated all 3 of the district's delegates.
If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the candidate with the plurality (most votes) is allocated 2 delegates and the candidate with the next highest number of votes is allocated 1 delegate.
19 at-large delegates are to be allocated to the presidential contenders based on the statewide primary results. A mandatory 10% threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the statewide level.
Each presidential candidate receiving 10% percent of the statewide vote is allocated 1 delegate.
If a presidential candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote statewide, that candidate is allocated the remaining at-large delegates.
If no presidential candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, the remaining at-large delegates are allocated proportionally among the 3 highest vote-getters (providing those candidates also received 10% of the statewide vote). Round fractions down to the nearest whole number. Award any remaining delegate positions to the candidate who received the most votes
Considering that the AR GOP has endorsed Fred. If Fred is still in, and he will be, he will take AR and you can take that to the bank. In fact my bet is Fred is popular enough, that it is very possible that he takes ever state south of the Mason-Dixon line, except possibly FL
Different candidates have to win different states. Hunter is toast, and I expect that even he'll realize that at the latest after Michigan. I don't think both McCain and Romney make it out of New Hampshire, though I think the loser will hold on until Michigan, lose that, and then bow out. Huckabee is done if he doesn't win either Michigan or South Carolina, the latter of which would be extremely difficult after losing the former. Thompson may drop out after a sixth place finish today, but if he stays, I expect that he'll finish fourth or worse in South Carolina, and then duck out before Super Tuesday. Rudy may pack it in if he doesn't finish at least a very strong second in Florida.
To make a long post short (okay, too late), there aren't enough states to keep everybody in it until Super Tuesday. Something somewhere has to give, and I'm desperately hoping that it does lest Rudy's strategy actually pays off.
Fred has skipped NH and is in South Carolina. South Carolina will be where he makes his stand and when he beats Huckabee there, it'll be over for the second Dope from Hope.
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
I know he skipped New Hampshire. I also expect that he'll finish sixth there, and likely do the same in Michigan. It's extremely risky to have people continue to think you're viable after you get dropped like a bad habit in some early states. Just ask Rudy.
Can't say I agree with you here. I don't see candidates bowing out of this.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
Are California and Illinois proportional or winner-take-all? I don't have any stats on hand but last I heard Rudy was leading in both those states.
---
Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
Don't know about Illinois, but California is winner-take-all by Congressional District, and I believe some bonus delegates for the winner of the state.
will get some delegates from California. He has had California for Thompson working on his behalf for a long time and they have made good progress. The liberal part of this State is the urban areas like Los Angeles and San Fransisco. Other areas are far more Conservative and he will probably run strong in those areas. I know this because i'm working for him in the north east area of Los Angeles County. He will get some licks in here. I guarantee it...
but I do know polls in Illinois show Huckabee just 2 points behind Rudy. If Huckabee wins SC and/or Michigan that momentum may be enough to push him over the edge and take Illinois Feb 5th.
Illinois is winner take all. Rudy has the State Party leadership backing him but the grassroot conservatives have had a hisory in Illinois of beating the establishment party of the IL GOP. Many in Illinois support Huckabee. Something you will never see reported about Illinois and might susprise some is Illinois is one of the most open homeschooling States. My wife and I homeschool and she has been getting e-mails for months about Huckabee. The homeschoolers in Illinois...and they are plenty are buzzing for Huck. I also know that with less than three weeks to get on the ballot a grassroots movement popped up and got Huck delegates in all but two congressional districts. Those lean very Democratic so it really dosen;t matter anyway.
Mark W. Johnson
Founder
Il GOP Network
www.ilgopnet.com
In Illinois delegates are voted for by congressional district. How the statewide vote goes is just a "beauty contest". Delegates are elected individually in each congressional district. The delegates appear by name on the ballot along with who they are committed to. It is possible for a congressional district to elect three different delegates for three separate candidates. Campaigns usually try to get well known local elected officials to run for delegate so it is possible that say, Romney may win the beauty contest vote in that district overwhelmingly, while a well known popular state rep running as a delegate for Huckabee could be elected.
I agree with you in principle but I think you over estimate both McCain and Romney. McCain will not do as well as you project in SC and he's not as popular in his home state as you suggest. Romney should win MA as you suggest but he is going to get thumped in SC.
Huckabee is not going to do nearly as well in SC as he did in IA and probably won't beat Thompson there. That brings up FL and Rudy will probably do ok there and Romney may do ok as well given the number of former Northeast liberal Republicans that now make FL home.
Anyway, I agree we are headed for uncharted waters with the delegate counts.
Just curious why you think Huckabee won't beat Thompson in South Carolina?
Right now, he leads Thompson threefold in the polls.
The only Republican who I see who now has a path to the White House is Huckabee. If he wins Michigan, it all might fall his way.
Huckabee wins Michigan, South Carolina, Nevada, Florida...it's over.
All it takes is an overflow of evangelicals.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
possibly those self-classified Christians, but an 'evangelical' Christian is different than a Christian.
There has been 3 state contests (I forgot WY earlier), so far, Romney has won 1, Huckabee has won 1, McCain has won 1. Thompson came in 2nd (WY), 3rd (IA). Now Romney came in 2nd in NH, 2nd in IA and 1st in WY....so explain to me again how Huckabee has the only path?
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
I know we haven't had one of those in a long long time but I'm rough around the edges on it and reading this analysis makes me ask what would happen in a brokered convention? Who would give delegates to who?
Yay, brokered convention!
Actually, from a political standpoint, that might be a good idea (not Jeb Bush, necessarily, but someone who isn't running). The candidates will all be so beat up and feelings among their partisans will be so, uh, partisan, that it could really give the GOP's nominee a shot in the arm if they went for someone else. Plus the media would eat it up.
If Jeb Bush were named Jeb Smith, he'd already be the frontrunner.
Anyhow, if it came to something like that, I'd guess someone like Mark Sanford or Tim Pawlenty.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
I'd really like our chances if Tim Pawlenty emerged from a brokered convention.
Jeb Bush should change his name to Jeb Walker or Jeb Arbusto right now. Just in case.
they start with a vote. If no has enough delegate votes to push him over the top then the arm twisting begins. Candidates with less delegate votes will be pressed by the stronger candidates to pledge their votes for cosideration such as a place in Administration, a change of position on a issue of importance to the lesser candidate etc... Of course the lesser candidates have to convince their respective delegates to change their votes to the stronger candidate. When one candidate thinks he has aquired enough delegates the vote goes up again and again until someone gets the required majority and is declared victor. It's really interesting stuff and you won't want to miss it. This system is why I believe a consensus candidate will emerge. The candidate who might not have started with the most votes but has the least negatives can actually win.. That's why it's exciting and why I think Thompson has a chance..
...is that any of the candidates who are continuing to get SOME delegates and are not flat broke have every reason to stay in... just about no matter what else happens because this gives them bargaining power at the convention and we might just find that a candidate who wasn't even near he top of the delegate count gets the nomination.
In fact, I thing Fred has a good chance even if he falters in S.C. and beyond. Why? Because there is a strong tendency in this race for many of the delegates of most candidates to despise the other candidates... but Fred is probaby the lone exception to his rule.
IOW - can you imagine Huckabee delegates voting for Romney or McCain? Can you imagine McCain delegates voting for Huckabee or Romney? Can you imagine Romney delegates voting for McCain or Huckabee?
But I don't think McCain, Huckabee, or Romney delegates will have any problems voting for Fred if their own candidate is unable to secure a majority. (Fred might even gain many of the Ron Paul delegates since he is the most "strict constitutionalist" of the bunch.)
Sure, different delegates will make their own decisions... but this is the "trend" I predict.
It does appear that Fred may be everyone's palatable second choice. I'm good with that.
If you've read Team of Rivals you know that Lincoln won his election by being everyone's second choice.
The odds of five candidates in the race on January 29th are nil.
The odds of four candidates still in are very very low.
After South Carolina, the greatest probability is that there will be three candidates left.
We know two of them: Huckabee and Giuliani.
The third will be one of Fred, Mitt, and McCain.
I don't see a brokered convention in the tea-leaves. Kinda busy at the moment, but I will post on this soon.
MOlsen6
Proud supporter of McCain '00 and McCain '08
Thompson's already not running in most states.
Romney has the money to stay in as long as he continues to pick up delegates.
McCain appeared dead last summer and yet is still thriving.
I think Thunder's right. The ego's of each of these men is too strong to allow them to quit when there is still a chance.
The winner of South Carolina is going to win the nomination. Either McCain or Romney will get a boost out of New Hampshire, and will compete with Huckabee for South Carolina.
If Huckabee wins SC he will win Florida. He can say he's the candidate with the momentum; he won in Iowa; he won in South Carolina. And he's already ahead in Florida. Then Huckabee would do well enough on Super Tuesday to clear most of the field (he wouldn't win NY and NJ, but he'd do well enough to be far ahead of everyone else).
If Romney wins SC (which would require him winning tonight I would think) then he can claim to have the momentum and will likely win in Florida. Conservatives will be forced to rally around him.
If McCain wins SC, you see where I'm going. I just think the winner of SC will likely win FL because Republican voters are going to want to avoid this brokered convention.
South Carolina is the key. As always.
It is already less than a month away. What does a candidate have to lose by staying in and hoping to pick up whatever additional delegates they can on that day?
I'm betting that unless one candidate wins 5 states in a row no one will gain the necessary momentum to force the others out.
Nobody (among the plausible 5) is going to drop out before February 5th. But the bar for momentum going into Super Tuesday is lower than most years because the race is so fractured. If Huckabee wins SC, he can plausibly claim momentum.
Everyone should want to avoid a brokered convention. Obama campaigning all spring and summer for the general, while the the Republicans go after each other does not sound to me like a recipe for winning in November.
I expect that Clinton won the nomination tonight. Obama did what he needed to do in Iowa, got the boost, and still lost New Hampshire (or so it appears). If she won, I think the coronation is back on schedule.
It will certainly be an interesting race. I have no idea what happens in Nevada, where Clinton had a big lead in polls a month ago. In SC, Obama is crushing Clinton, and with the large black vote, it should be an easy win. After that, it's on to Super Tuesday and they both have money. If Obama takes Nevada and SC, I'd think he still has the edge. If they split, then who knows.
This sets things, er, as everyone expected, I think (can't really say right). This was a huge comeback, and now she'll get the bounce back heading into South Carolina and Nevada. I'll be surprised if Obama wins another state.
I think it checks Obama's mo more than creates a Clinton tidal wave. The polls in SC are strong in Obama's favor. I don't see it swinging back to Clinton. Way to many blacks that will vote for a black candidate in SC now that Obama is seen as electable. I don't think a close defeat in an almost all-white state that he was way behind in a couple of weeks is going to change things that much in SC. Guess we'll see.
The other interesting dynamic is what does Edwards do? Does he drop out before Super Tuesday? If so, where do his voters go? I'd think they're more anti-Clinton, so this might give Obama the boost he needs. If Edwards stays in through Super Tuesday, do the Dems then go to a brokered convention? Interesting times for political junkies!
However, a Huckabee win in SC won't assure him the nomination. Quite the contrary. The rest of the party would rally around one other candidate.
That's why Rudy's strategy is plausible. But if a non-Huckabee wins SC, Rudy probably would get steamrollered in Florida.
First of all, not all Republicans are against Huckabee. Don't confuse universal dislike of Huckabee at Redstate with universal dislike among primary voters (see polls in South Carolina, Florida, etc). If online support was a true measure of voter support, then Thompson would be polling above single digits in some state besides TN (and John Edwards would be the runway Democratic nominee for that matter).
But more importantly, if Huckabee wins SC, on top of his victory in IA, which candidate is the Party going to rally around in FL to stop him? You can't beat something with nothing. Huckabee will have momentum going into Florida, and unless 2 candidates drop out before FL (and why would they?) there isn't going to be one anti-Huckabee candidate.
because he will not place third I think in either NH or MI, and Romney will continue to embarrass him. Romney will be the delegate leader by then regardless of how he does in NH, and that will be all he needs to win or place 2cd in SC.
"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman
of about 40%. My surmise is that the non-Huckabee will eventually emerge and that he will wipe the floor with the Huckster. I also think that most Fred, Rudy, Romney, and McCain supporters will go for the "anybody but Huckabee" candidate.
Incidentally, just because South Carolina has chosen the winner so many times does not assure it of doing it this time. South Carolina has never been won by the "insurgent" candidate (except maybe 76-I'm not sure). If Huckabee can't get his support above a certain level, South Carolina might be the last race where his support can win a plurality.
Remeber also that 200,000 GOPP voters already have voted in Florida. That's a big hump for Huckabee to get over.
My understanding is none after the first vote.
True they are often chosen for loyalty, but how much will that count for? Could Huckabee really convince his delegates to vote for some one like Guiliani? Or even McCain?
I think Thompson and maybe Romney are the candidates who would benefit the most from a brokered convention.
Also, delegates aren't limited to the present candidates.
What happens if some delegates try to break the deadlock by starting a movement for some other candidate like Condi Rice, or Jeb Bush, or even Newt Gingrich.
Things could get very weird...
... from purely a voyeuristic perspective: I would love to see a brokered convention. Like Bush V Gore, this type of theater is really interesting.
But, not sure that this is in the best interest of anybody -- I can't imagine any way to not disenfranchise signficant portions of Republican voters.
-JAC
Huckabee must be defeated by enough of a margin in SC for Fred to have a hope of sweeping any WTA southern states and getting a plurality of delegates from proportional southern states.
McCain, I think, is seen as something of a Yankee (though not a damnyankee) by many in the South, and I'll be surprised if Rudy or Mitt do well, much less win, once either the Huckabee or Thompson steamroller gets going. Mitt and Rudy are the damnyankees to McCain's semi-yankee-ness.
I wouldn't rule out a brokered convention though... there are too many players likely to be left on the field after 2/5/08.
Fred Thompson: Hands Down, the ONLY Consistently Conservative candidate.
But it all comes back to your basic assumptions on the race. I don't think Fred Thompson will win much of anything to be honest and will drop out after South Carolina. So his delegates have to go somewhere. Remember, people don't have to drop out to be out. Witness Duncan Hunter.
Actually, after South Carolina Thompson probably won't be the only person dropping out.
The possibilities here. If Mitt loses NH, Michigan, and SC he is out realistically even if he stays in. If McCain loses SC or Michigan he is weakened enough to make his lack of organization and funds take him out of the race in many states whether he stays in or not. If Huckabee loses SC he has no organization or funds to keep going regardless of whether he stays in.
South Carolina is a thunderdome of which at least two candidates will exit no longer viable. This could fuzzy up your numbers.
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I am a Positivist Pastafarian for the alliteration alone.
Normally, candidates drop out when it becomes absolutely clear that they cannot get the majority of delegates. However, I wonder whether the dynamic is different this time. Perhaps candidates stay in simply to block another from gaining a majority and thus throwing the nomination to a brokered convention.
... Romney is out if he loses Michigan, but it doesn't much matter to him what happens in South Carolina because he hasn't put much money or that many people there. But he MUST win Michigan.
Huckabee can survive if he loses SC, but it will be tough for him because he's expected to do well in the South. The good news for him is that he'll probably win there. [1] Only McCain is in striking distance of Huck right now, and I think what McCain really wants is to concentrate on winning Michigan in order to put a stake through the heart of Mitt Romney.
Thompson and Rudy both benefit from the soft bigotry of low expectations. They've both staked their grub money on being able to pull off a strong finish in the later primary states, although Thompson needs to at least finish strong in South Carolina to remain a serious candidate.
[1] http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/south_carolina-pr...
Hang all traitors and secessionists! Hang them high!
- Me
At worst, he's going to be second (barring some major scandal). He'll go on.
I do think only one of Romney, McCain, and Thompson make it past SC.
Rudy has made Florida his battlefield so he plays through the 29th. After that, who knows?
If he can't win in the south where he should be strong then the meme that Iowa was isolated can start to stick. He needs SC bad. Not as bad as Thompson, but one of those guys can't make it out alive. Romney and McCain are another duo that needs a strong showing there to prove they have more appeal than just the north and/or the west. So one of those guys have to be out.
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I am a Positivist Pastafarian for the alliteration alone.
I do not know. It is not Georgia, but it is nearby. GC would probably know.
P.S. Two of SC's 6 reps are for the FairTax. Spratt a D is the only SC rep. that is actively opposed to the FairTax. My guess is that SC is less supportive of the FairTax than Georgia. Moreover, not every FairTaxer, is pro-Huckabee.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
Harry Brown [SC-1] is a cosponsor. Joe Wilson [SC-2], Gresham Barrett [SC-3], Lindsey Graham, and Jim DeMint have each voiced support of FairTax in the past. Jim DeMint was a cosponsor of it when he was in the House and now sponsors a variant of the FairTax in the Senate now.
Unless some candidates drop out before the primary or Huck completely self-destructs, he is going to win SC big since he is the only pro-FairTax candidate other than Ron Paul.
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Eliminate the IRS and all payroll taxes! http://www.fairtax.org
I'm in the upstate, near Greenville:
- Christian conservatives, seemingly, are staying coalesced around Huckabee. Fred Thompson waited WAY too late to make any sort of impact. There is practically no Fred Thompson presence here.
- Romney is liked the most, overall, at least where I am.
- Giuliani has a lot of positive name recognition as "the guy who cleaned up NYC," and "the 9/11 mayor," but he's made no play to win here, and Romney has, Romney has the edge.
My guess, after Huckabee third or fourth in Michigan and Nevada, and McCain begins fading after New Hampshire, voters here will swing back to Romney.
thearmchairrepublican.blogspot.com
at least on Thompson, Huckabee and Romney
http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=1750
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
Upstate SC. Near Greenville, a big financial area, where Romney has a stronghold. I never said Fred Thompson had no presence state-wide, just where I am.
thearmchairrepublican.blogspot.com
Fred was in Greenville today and I'm sure things will begin to turn around. Huckabee is about to crash and burn and Thompson will take the lead in the south, but it may end up a brokered convention after all.
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
I think a lot of the Senator, and he would have a shot here if Romney had won Iowa and New Hampshire. Now, it looks like South Carolina will be do or die for Mitt Romney, and you better believe he is going to spend the money to make sure that happens. We've had this discussion before, Senator Thompson having obligations to fulfill before he jumped into the race. All I'm saying, if he had gotten in before Huckabee, there would be no Huckabee candidacy now. All the Huckabee voters would be Thompson voters, and he would walk away with South Carolina. As it stands now, his impact is negligble, and that is a shame.
thearmchairrepublican.blogspot.com
I believe that Huckabee is about to have a rude awakening and while he and the others are bouncing around up north, Thompson is going to be traveling all over SC.
If Huckabee makes another 'okay' performance in the SC debate on January 10, it could all be over.
I'll tell ya, if Mitt loses today in NH and then in Michigan, it maybe that he drops and gives his endorsement to Thompson, unlikely, but if a VP deal was cut...there's a thought...
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
My discussion with my father was very enlightening the other day. I was shocked that he was so favorable to Huckabee. He was convinced that Thompson's campaign was DOA. The campaign just doesn't seem to be making an impact.
I was shocked with the discussion of the primaries that occurred at my office. McCain was the front-runner, to include among Democrats as an alternative if Obama is nominated.
Up until the last few days I thought Fred would do great down here. I'm shaken. Mitt signs are everywhere, and many of my social acquaintances are Mitt voters. I still thought, Fred will do great. But the more I chat with people ...
I think with an advertising focus Huckabee will rapidly lose support. Although I still *wish* it would be Fred, unless something turns around it looks Mitt to me. Not that I am all that unfavorable toward Mitt myself, mind you.
absentee
but today's society isn't known for sticking with things for very long.
Thompson is literally living down in SC right now. He doesn't have nearly the amound of ground to make up as he did in Iowa. The paid media blitz will begin soon, as you've probably noticed, Fred is getting a lot of free national media right now.
It is my belief that Romney and McCain will completely destroy Huckabee in the next two weeks.
The truly ideal thing to happen at this point, is for Romney to lose in NH and Michigan and then drop out, endorse Thompson. Thompson to go on to win the nomination, and make Romney his VP.
If Thompson doesn't win the nomination, I believe he will, I'll survive, and so will the spirit of this country. If a Democrat wins the office, however, what truly remains of America is a concern to me.
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
How does Thompson get any momentum? He's sitting at just above 10% in South Carolina right now.
You say that Romney needs to lose Michigan, but the problem is that he might very well lose Michigan to Huckabee. Same thing goes with Nevada.
I think Romney can still win Nevada, but I'm not so sure now.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
of those, Fred has campaigned in 2 of them: WY and IA. In IA he came in 3rd (above expectations), in WY he came in 2nd. The next state he campaigns in will be SC. At that point, hopefully either Romney or Giuliani win Michigan. If so, then when SC and Nevada's primaries are held, it'd be an even field. If Fred pulls out a win in SC (very likely), he'll have the momentum in the south to win SuperTuesday and the nomination.
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
Does he have a chance of exercising the demons of 2000?
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I am a Positivist Pastafarian for the alliteration alone.
He won 44% (IIRC) in 2000. It will take about 35% to win this time b/c the field is split. And it will probably take about 20-25% to make second. So even if McCain loses half his support, he could hold on to a second place finish.
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Donate to the Rs in Close Senate Races through Slatecard
It was a two person race in 2000. I think he will have a tough time with Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson grabbing votes.
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I am a Positivist Pastafarian for the alliteration alone.
Isn't SC an open primary? If so and assuming McCain wins tonight, I expect McCain will show strong in SC.
I'm a Charlotte, NC resident, but I work in upstate SC. My observations around here are a lot of support for McCain and Romney. Sadly, a little bit of Ron Paul (gag). My dad is a recognizable evangelical, both as a professor and author. He likes Fred Thompson but is favorably disposed toward Huckabee, the man. After discussing policies at length, he's not disposed toward Huckabee the candidate. He's not exactly unengaged politically. As much as we go down the candidates negatives here at Redstate, it seems it is not penetrating out to the real world with much success.
In any case, if my area were the indicator, I'd see Romney in the lead, McCain in second and third is rather nebulous, but likely not Fred, more's the pity.
absentee
Huckabee's pastoral background is what is carrying him at the moment. However, he will be severely weakened when he gets here, and you better believe since Mitt Romney seems to be the general consensus candidate, he will make sure he wins SC. John McCain is respected, no doubt about it. I know a couple of people who support him. As a Giuliani supporter, I firmly believe if the mayor had made a bigger play here, he would've siphoned off the national security hawks that have coalesced around McCain - McCain being the National Security Candidate.
In the end, I believe Romney will win South Carolina.
thearmchairrepublican.blogspot.com
I definitely think Giuliani could have made a play in the upstate areas, especially the Charlotte suburbs which are reddish-purple.
I'm admittedly just one face in a sea, but like you, I see Romney winning down here.
absentee
Or is it contingent on momentum?
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I am a Positivist Pastafarian for the alliteration alone.
he's a very smart business man....I'd love for him to drop out if he loses Michigan, endorse Thompson and either be Thompson's VP or a cabinet post.
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
I love ya, man, with all my heart. I mean that. Fred until the end, right? Gotta admire that level of loyalty.
thearmchairrepublican.blogspot.com
When I asked my Dad why he liked Huckabee, he said "I think he's more conservative that Romney".
I think that's telling. As the two overtly religious candidates they assumed the presumptive mantle of the social conservatives who are running.
I really think it is that simple. The labels were set months ago. Giuliani is the anti-terrorism candidate. McCain is the war candidate. Huckabee and Romney are the religion candidates, and Thompson doesnt have an identity.
Mind you, I sincerely wish it were not so. I'm just going on observation. As noted, my father was persuaded to Thompson with a brief discussion convincing him that Fred wasn't Dead. Would that Fred were running more campaign ads down here. Or something, I don't know what, to counteract the very effectively distributed message that his bid is DOA.
My consolation is that McCain is my second choice, and I expect he'll do very well. Again, if my observations are worth extrapolating from.
Gamecock may have a different, and certainly broader view, having a wider vantage.
absentee
If Thompson wins SC then I imagine most Romney support will switch to him.
If Thompson is behind Romney in SC then Romney might become the compromise candidate- just because people don't want Rudy, McCain, or Huckabee.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
I think Romney has cemented support here. My father who makes 100k a year supports Romney, as does my Southern Baptist aunt (for an example.) Romney and McCain will be in a three-way dogfight in Michigan and Nevada. Romney has the money to throw on some BandAids to stop the bleeding and move on to SC. McCain and Huckabee, however, will be severely wounded when they get here, with no money. In the end, Romney started early in the process soldifying SC into his column, and I believe he will.
thearmchairrepublican.blogspot.com
Successive ballots, dropping the lowest one or two each round?
You just keep voting. State Delegates are essentially only committed on the first vote. If no one gets a majority, then it is pure retail politics. So it could theoretically go, first ballot: 49% Romney, 48% Thompson, 3% McCain or whatever and second ballot: 100% Jeb Bush.
Not nearly as organized in that regard as selecting a host of the Olympics, but then most of the time that vote requires multiple ballots as opposed to the Dem and GOP conventions which are coronations 80%+ of the time.
The other thing I don't know is what happens if they can't get it all done in 4 Days. I have no idea how much of a cushion the Xcel Energy Center has built into the schedule before having another event. The Minnesota Wild (Hockey) are the primary tenants, but the Hockey preseason this year started for the Wild about September 18th.
He is running in first place amongst upstate SC and the rest of the state typically will follow their lead. Fred Thompson should make it pretty competitive. If he wins, there's a very good chance he pulls in Georgia and West Virginia on Super, Tuesday in addition to his homestate of Tennessee and as mentioned by pcsblazer20, Alabama.
Coming out of Feb. 5th that will put Thompson at over 200 delegates. As others, he'll pull delegates from the remaining Super Tuesday states.
Depending on how Romney flushes out (his camp announced they are staying in the race thru Feb. 5th), it should be a two or three way lead for delegates. This will be a cluster.
The remaining states may start making their choices between the leaders. For all the talk of a "brokered convention", the GOP may well end up awarding the nomination spots to the #1 and #2 delegate-haulers to cross the finish line.
You are putting Thompson in SC in a vacuum of sorts. By the time we get here (SC), Thompson would have finished only above Ron Paul in Michigan and Nevada. He will be on life support. The media will frame SC will be Romney's, McCain's or Huckabee's last stand. Even if Thompson wins or finishes second, he then has to face the bulwark of Rudy Giuliani's campaign - where he has been instead of Ia, NH, MI and SC - Florida and beyond.
thearmchairrepublican.blogspot.com
I think Thompson will remain viable until SC because of the MSM - as crazy as that sounds. They are invested in chaos in the Republican primary. They have been doing stories on Thompson making SC the center of his strategy - like all the stories Fox did on Rudy during the Iowa Caucuses and NH primary.
Even Fox has has more favorable coverage of Fred in recent days.
might be up in the air for a lot longer than you think. I believe it's because more states have gone away from the winner take all system. Lesser candidates see that with a few delegates they can have some impact at the convention. Chaos yes, but it will mean a consensus candidate will probably emerge. That might just mean the Republicans will have a candidate that appeals to the silent majority rather than a targeted group, hence more votes. I'm still not giving up on Thompson. He has the least negatives of all the Candidates running and I think he can be the consensus they will turn to....
We want a long drawn out fight between Clinton and Obama.
Then, hopefully, HRC goes to the left to secure the nomination.
Finally, we can face HRC.
I will say it again, WE WANT HRC in the general election. She unites us with independents better than any of our candidates.
The Dems just left chaos. Clinton is back to clear front-runner. Their race will get a bit nastier, but it's Clinton. I couldn't be more excited about our chances against her...
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
... but I think Hillary is the most formidable candidate in the Democratic field. She has the money, the organization, and the Bill all on her side. She is seasoned, and an utterly ruthless politician. I was kind of hoping that Barack would take her down because I think his inexperience and his murky personal background (cocaine, Islamic education, at all that) make him a much easier target. But most importantly, he's an untested candidate who's never had to beat anybody more challenging than Alan Keyes in any election in his entire life.
So let's not fool ourselves, beating Hillary is going to be an extremely tough task for us, even if she's banged up after the primaries.
Hang all traitors and secessionists! Hang them high!
- Me
You cannot underestimate the anti-Hillary vote out there. Giuliani or McCain, probably Rudy, will end up being our nominee. Both will attract independents, especially males, in droves. Maybe even male blue dog Dems, too.
Prediction: Hillary knows this. Watch for her to ask Evan Bayh to be her veep. (Note: Bayh is one of the few Dem's who I like.)
thearmchairrepublican.blogspot.com
Here is another calculation that should be considered. The Thompson campaign filed all the necessary paperwork with the CA GOP this week by the deadline. Flashreport.org reported on the filings of each candidate. Thompson, Romney and Giuliani were reported to have filed. No mention of the others. Without filing the paperwork, even if a candidate won the delegates by winning the congressional district they would not have any voting power as they would not be awarded a delegates.
Some of the counties in CA have more delegates than a combination of states together.
The question is how many other states have similar processes and the potential to not award won delegates?
Richard Rios
Republican Roots
"The government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it." -- Ronald Reagan
Interesting discussion.
One point which I think is underappreciated: the GOP convention is September 1-4, very late and just before the intensive campaigning season begins.
The chance of nominating a dark-horse candidate (i.e. other than an established candidate who ran to the end of the primaries) is nil. This is not 1840 - the months before the convention are the time when the nominee must raise money and build organization. To expect someone drafted out of the blue to start this process on September 4 is simply not an option.
Moreover, if the nominee is not clear before the convention, it still looks pretty disastrous. While the top 2-3 candidates after the primaries might conceivably keep some kind of core staff together, the uncertainty would be fatal to any fund-raising or organizational activity prior to the convention.
There would be one countervailing, but inadequate consolation, perhaps: the Democratic convention is a week earlier, and it would rather funny if they didn't know who to attack. But I don't think that would even approach the handicap due to lost months of preparation on the Republican side.
In the 21st century media-/money-centered campaign, any deals will have to be made well in advance of the convention, such that the outcome is known as soon as possible. If the GOP nominee is really decided at the convention, it won't matter who it is, because he will be helpless to put together a competitive general election campaign.
A 4-way race doesn't seem out of the question, and a 3-way race is easy to imagine. If so, the winner of the last major contests may carry an important edge if he also has the largest totals.
From Super Tuesday, the primaries continue sporadically for another five weeks, until Mississippi on March 11. Then there are about 6 weeks with nothing until Pennsylvania on April 22, where Giuliani should do very well (if he's one of those still standing). After that, the remaining larger states are IN and NC on May 6, and OR/KY two weeks later.
Just PLEASE don't let the nominee be Huck. At this point, I don't really care too much who we nominate -- just not the Dope from Hope.
and if there are, do they leave open the possibility of another candidate?
If Newt shows up at the convention, can people just start voting for him on a whim?
(or Jeb or Condi or ???? )
BTW, I think Jeb would result in an immeadiate and colossal loss just based on the Bush name.
This is the best post I have seen anywhere on the nominations. You have figured out what none of the mainstream pundits have figured out. Great Job.
The funny thing is that a lot of the comments are mathematically or conceptually challenged. Certainly, few are using the proper analytical skill to comment, which is accounting. Winning and loosing any state, or series of states (in most cases), is not nearly as important as the margin of victory. I wish more posters would use a delegate numerical adjustment to your totals when the "declaring" a state for a candidate.
You prove that a sufficient number of seconds or maybe even thirds is enough to win the nomination and there is no point getting out now - unless you are mathematically eliminated. Anything could happen.
Please keep this up! Thanks.
"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman