Redstate

By Thunder Posted in 2008 — Comments (15) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

It looks like Florida voters will turn out in record numbers today (actually since voting started two weeks ago). This is driven partial to a state wide initiative to cut property taxes, and probably more by the Presidential primary.

With more than a million votes already cast during early voting or with absentee ballots, Florida should see turnout records fall today.

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/01/final_thoughts_on_flori...

Of the million voters that will have voted by the end of today, 500,000 will have been republican. Of that 500,000, 25% or 125,000 will have already voted before today. And as the Polls show, its too close to call. Two different polls have two different leaders.

Romney 34%, McCain 32%, Giuliani 13%, Huckabee 10%

U.S. Sen. John McCain, who had a 2% lead after polling Sunday night, now finds himself trailing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 34%-32% according to results of a telephone poll conducted Sunday and Monday nights January 27-28, 2008. Rudy Giuliani, who was tied with Mike Huckabee at 12%, has now taken a 3% lead over Huckabee (13%-10%). Ron Paul has 3%, and 7% are undecided..

“This is basically a dead heat. Romney gained a point since last night while McCain dropped 3%. A major change came from those who have already voted. On Sunday night, Romney and McCain were tied among the 33% who said they already voted. After Monday night’s polling, Romney had a 9% lead among those voters. Romney also cut McCain’s lead among those who say they will be “definitely voting” from 4% in Sunday’s polling to 2% at the end of polling on Monday night,” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Interactive said.

Hours before the start of Florida's voting, Arizona Sen. John McCain held a slim 4-point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 35 percent to 31 percent, in what was essentially a two-man race, the poll found.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2428418520080129

To fully understand Florida, you have to realize that this is a very big state with a much different sets of population groups.

Florida has as many as eight [Regions]…
The Panhandle is home to a significant number of veterans. …more than one in five voters are military veterans… northern-most part of the state is seen as the most Southern part of Florida. John McCain and Mitt Romney will compete for votes there.


On the east side of the state… Romney will have to battle Mike Huckabee for social conservative votes… If Romney scores a big win along the coast, he could be in strong position around the rest of the state.
On the east side, the region around Daytona Beach and … retirees have flocked there, and Giuliani has spent time courting their votes.


On the west side of the central region, Tampa Bay, home to the second-largest media market in Florida, also has its share of retirees…Without a big pro-Giuliani turnout throughout the central part of the state, the former New York Mayor is going to leave Florida empty-handed. Pasco County, just north of Tampa Bay, takes pride in reporting their vote counts early. If Giuliani is to have success among the retirees on whom he has focused, early results should show a big pro-Rudy edge.
Giuliani will also need a big boost from the Treasure Coast, an area on the state's southeastern edge including Vero Beach, Port St. Lucie and Palm Beach… the area is home to the state's large Jewish community. Giuliani, insiders say, should be able to count on a boost there, as well.


More retirees populate Sarasota, Bradenton, Fort Myers and Naples, on the opposite coast… come largely from the Midwest as opposed to the Northeast. They are economic conservatives, setting up another battleground between Romney and McCain.
Miami-Dade County and Broward County each have huge Cuban populations, which traditionally vote Republican...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2008/01/geographic_coal...

Other factors in the race will be organization. In this case, its Romney’s organization which is basically Jeb Bush’s organization versus Charlie Crist’s Organization that McCain got when Charlie Christ endorsed him.
http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2008/romney/romneyorgfl.html

Finally, there is the ballet initiative which will cut property taxes. This is likely to bring out more Economic Conservatives.

The battle in Florida is a microcosm for the rest of the country. It is basically moderates verses conservatives. Its Voters who view Defense more important verses Voters who feel economic interest are more important. Its also the first primary where only registered republicans can vote. It’s the endorsement of a Governor who has been in office for less than a year, plus a US Senator versus Talk Radio host like Rush Limbaugh and Shawn Hannity.

Momentum has also effected Florida. Out of the three most hotly contested Primaries/caucus, three leaders emerged. Huckabee (Iowa), McCain(New Hampshire), and Romney(Michigan).

McCain took out Huckabee in South Carolina but Romney was able to negate that by winning little contested Nevada. While it was not hotly contested, it was well covered because of the democrats in Nevada. Romney was also able to emerge with the most delegates.

The winner of Florida will stand alone as far as momentum goes, and it will be hard to stop that train.

What will be the final out come. Well, If I knew, I would be hired by every news agency in the country. I am pulling for Romney, so I have rose colored glasses on.

The effect of what happens in Florida is easier to predict.

If McCain wins

It means that McCain may very well take NY and NJ. It also means that McCain will have the delegate edge. It also will have tremendous effect on California. It means that McCain will be seen as the candidate to beat and he should come out of Super Tuesday with the delegate lead.

Rudy will be on life support or completely out.
Romney will be playing catch up. He will not be out because he has a lot of support in the west and has a bank account. But he will trail badly in the delegate count.
Huckabee will be the least effected. Although he will fight McCain more for southern primaries. Still, Huckabee’s best chance is to be McCain’s running mate.

If Romney wins

It means that Romney will steam roll in the west, in particular California, where McCain and Romney are battling it out. It will also help Romney in the Mid west, and will mean that Romney will emerge from Super Tuesday with the delegate lead.
Rudy Regains his lead in NY and NJ and will still be a player. He will be behind the delegate count, but still have enough to influence the end result.
McCain will begin to decline and it very well may be the end of McCain.
Huckabee will pick up more southern delegates but without McCain, it doesn’t look like he is going anywhere. Still he will have a sizeable delegate count, and may yet have an influence in the end result.

After Florida voting is finished, Florida may very well be deciding who the next president is. As for me, I am going to Romney’s rally tonight to either celebrate a victory or the agony of defeat.