Redstate

Posted at 8:43pm on Jan. 28, 2008 My theories on the democratic race

By Tim112358

Firstly I think that there is no clear frontrunner and the race could go either way. I don't buy Clinton inevitability and I don't buy Obama inevitability. The media will weave its spin, based on whatever sells best. The process is almost random.

Intrade has it at about 2:3 odds with Obama rising. Personally I think this somewhat understates Obama's chances (I’d put it at fifty/fifty, with perhaps a slight edge to Obama simply because the Clinton camp seems to be in meltdown). A lot depends on what happens in Florida, will the press spin it as a hollow victory for Hilary without delegates and without campaigning, or will the headlines read "Hilary wins Florida" and the body have the disclaimer? The spinning in Florida, and the margin of the vote, will mean a lot going into Super Tuesday. If Clinton loses Florida by some miracle then she is out of the race. She had all the advantages, demography, and name recognition in a state without campaigns, and she still lost.

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