Rasmussen: South Carolina - Huckabee 25%, Thompson 18%, Romney 18%, Giuliani 12% (Can you hear the "Jaws" music?)
By Titans Posted in 2008 — Comments (50) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has taken the lead in South Carolina’s Republican Presidential Primary. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Huckabee with 25% of the vote, Mitt Romney with 18% and Fred Thompson with 18%. A month ago, Romney and Thompson were on top.
The latest election poll also shows Rudy Giuliani with 12% of the vote, John McCain with 9%, and Ron Paul with 4% (see crosstabs). The race among Democrats in South Carolina has become a toss-up between Clinton and Obama.
Huckabee, at least for the moment, is carrying out the plan envisioned by the Thompson campaign last summer. He attracts from 37% of Evangelical Christians and 29% of conservatives. Thompson currently earns 20% of the Evangelical vote while Romney is supported by 15%.
While Huckabee leads among conservatives, Romney has a modest edge among the smaller number of political moderates likely to vote in the Primary. Among moderates, it’s Romney 22%, McCain 16%, Huckabee 16%, and Giuliani at 14%.
A month ago, Thompson was leading among Evangelical Christian voters while Romney had the advantage among other Protestants. Today, Huckabee attracts 22% of other Protestants, Romney 21%, and Thompson 16%.
The race in South Carolina remains very fluid and could easily be impacted by results from earlier voting. Forty-one percent (41%) of Huckabee’s supporters say they will definitely vote for him but 19% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Just 38% of Romney’s voters are certain they will vote for him while 18% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Among Thompson voters, 41% are certain while just 10% say there’s a good chance they’ll change their mind.
Twenty-six percent (26%) of Likely Republican Primary Voters in South Carolina name immigration as the top voting issue followed by the economy (20%), national security (19%), and the War in Iraq (15%). Health Care is the top issue for 7%.
Huckabee and Romney are the frontrunners in Iowa, Romney has the edge in New Hampshire, while Huckabee and Giuliani lead in the national polls. However, five candidates are in double digits nationally, any one of whom could conceivably win the nomination.
Huckabee is now viewed favorably by 70% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters and unfavorably by just 21%. That’s up dramatically from 57% favorable and 29% unfavorable a month ago.
Thompson is viewed favorably by 74%, Romney by 72%, and McCain by 60%. Those figures are little changed from a month ago.
Giuliani is now viewed favorably by 65%, down from 72% a month ago.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/200...
pulled up to 18 from 17 yesterday so he has bottomed out, Huck's march to victory is slowing he only moved from 20 to 21.
Rudy will take back the national polls next week when people find out Huck's a socially conservative lib.
Not that either one is exactly a conservative.
Romney may get a boost from the attention he received on his Faith Speech.
Rudy will lose in early socially conservative states but, ultimately, he will be way ahead after February 5th. Only Romney can survive Mega Tuesday if Rudy wins the big states like California and New York, etc.
17 to 18 is holding steady, not an increase. Same for 20 to 21.
I have no idea if anyone has bottomed out or hit a plateau, and you don't either.
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Seeing basically the same numbers moving slightly day after day after day really clogs up the diary list.
It only adds so much value to gloat about Mike Huckabee's climb every single day like this, without anything really new to report.
But I think this is the first poll with Huck ahead in SC. It shows this is not just an Iowa movement. And that Huck is now arguably leading in 2 of the first 4 states is pretty substantial news to me.
Even if it isn't particularly good news.
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My rec would be to shorten the title and make a point about why this poll matters. Ex: PRES-SC: Huckabee gets first lead.
As long as there is also analysis or commentary, I think polls are often a good starting point.
But I'm a numbers guy, so YMMV. :)
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Huckabee is doing good but, his gains have slowed, weekly polls are more accurate. Please stick to weekly posts of new polling data.
Thanks
The volatility favoring your guy today can be the one sinking him tomorrow, unless volatility magically stops.
Compared to the prior Rasmussen, Huck took 3 from Romney and 3 from Fred and 1 from Giuliani. These slivers can easily switch back again. (and SC has always been questionable territory for Rudy anyway)
That CNN hit job really hurt Giuliani more than any other candidate, as did his stupid attack on Romney for his "sanctuary mansion". I'm still assuming this will turn into a Romney/Huckabee vs. Giuliani contest, but if Romney wins New Hampshire and Michigan it could very well turn into a Romney vs. Huckabee race.
but, he's a veteran in campaigns he'll recover and he's already brought up his national numbers.
Remember some guy named Fred Thompson. Yeah, that guy whom was the new Ronald Reagan. He was leading Rudy by up to 10 points and held a lead for over a month.
Huck the high priest of liberalism is more dangerous that an abortionist in the GOP.
that are or I guess maybe all five of them are in the top tier.
This is just a cut-and-paste of the linked article. Have any analysis to provide, Titan?
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NARF
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Kirk? Is that you? :)
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"The bass, the rock, the mic, the treble, I like my coffee black, just like my Metal." - MSI
...from the bleeding heart Christian socialist.
While I think that Roe v. Wade should be overturned and abortion made illegal or at least strictly restricted in each and every state, at least if abortion does remain legal, there is other recourse. You can - as Giuliani pleads - ask women to not have them.
If Mike Huckabee hikes taxes and bloats the size and power of government, there is no such alternative recourse.
IF Huckabee or anyone else raises taxes or "bloats the size of government" there is always NEXT years budget or sooner to correct the error. If Guiliani winks and nods and nominates a David Souter or Anthony Kennedy clone to the Supreme Court and homosexual marriage is hoisted onto the people, well, we can always nominate a new Justice in say 20 years?
Point is, perhaps GOP primary voters are going to care as strongly about the Court as the left-wingers and we are not willing to "trust" Guiliani or others on this vital issue.
been reduced or eliminated in the last 30 years? SCOTUS justices are turned over faster than budgets are cut.
And if you think for one second that Bubba Jr. will be getting conservative judicial nominees confirmed, think again. He's pro-HLA and FMA and he would mobilize the opposition and the Congressional Dems like you've not seen since Bork. And BTW, you don't actually think he's going to make abortion a litmus test on nominees do you?
The probability of getting "good" judges out of Rudy, given his judicial advisory commission and his willingness to fight for his nominees, is significantly higher than with Bubba.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
that Rudy knows he must prove himself on judges or we social conservatives will leave him out to dry?
Rudy may actually ram through somebody to the right of Scalia or Roberts. You no how people tend to make up for their short comings.
If Huckabee's inner compass guides him to larger and larger budgets - as he has proven - and he does so in his first year of president, what is to have us believe that he'll cut the budget in year 2?
Though I'm skeptical about Giuliani on judges, I'm downright facetious about Huckabee on the economic matters. In the end, though, they are both liberals of different stripes. Giuliani is a social liberal and Huckabee is an economic liberal. Why would anyone describing themselves as an all-around conservative support any one of these candidates?
I think that there are three acceptable candidates that will keep the entire party more or less together: Romney, Thompson, and McCain (and that's my preferred order.) If it comes down to Giuliani vs. Huckabee, I have to go with Giuliani because the president exercises much more control over the budget (via the veto) and trade policy, etc. than over social policy since it is currently more or less held hostage in Supreme Court precedent.
From realclearpolitics.com
Huckabee Romney Thompson Giuliani McCain RCP RCPAverage 17.8 17.8 16.2 16.0 10.6
Rasmussen 25 18 18 12 9
Insider
Advantage 23 14 17 17 10
American Res.
Group 18 21 13 23 10
Clemson 13 17 15 9 11
AP-Pew 10 19 18 19 13
thearmchairrepublican.blogspot.com
Not the same as in the comment box. Oh well.
Bottom line:
Real Clear's average of the polls in South Carolina:
Huckabee 17.8
Romney 17.8
Thompson 16.2
Giuliani 16.0
McCain 10.6
thearmchairrepublican.blogspot.com
Once more polls come out and old ones are dropped from realclearpolitics.com Huckabee will probably be in the lead in South Carolina. He's up 19 points on intrade.com today and is now above a 50% chance to win the state. The jaws music is very appropriate for those of you who fear Huckabee winning the nomination. I would argue that he's not as scary as you paint him to be. Look at his immigration plan that came out today.
...claiming God is making him rise in the polls will be a Goldwater-style blowout in the general election. A Catholic Conservative like myself doesn't like to hear presidential candidates prosletyzing on the stump.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
If Huckabee's opponents are foolish enough to let him get the nomination -- which would require almost completely ignoring his record as governor -- he will experience an epic flameout in the general election.
Huckabee supporters should read a bit more about the man himself. He's petty, vindictive, thin-skinned, prone to self-pitying press conferences about how unfairly the media treats him... in other words, Hillary Clinton would be picking her teeth with his tie clip long before November. Issues? Issues wouldn't even enter into the equation. Huckabee would sink himself quite handily.
Yes, but his record on immigration is atrocious, along with his tax and spending, along with his record on crime, along with his pandering to identity politics, along with his support initial support of Shamnesty. But I guess that the bulk of the evangelical supporters of Huckabee just don't care about his record? Im not disparaging evangelicals, mind you, just questioning their rationale for backing a RINO so eagerly.
Huckabee supporters - you are taking the party over the cliff, and you are backing a general election loser, in the same way Giuliani supporters were doing. Your candidate will keep the bulk of fiscal conservatives and libertarians home in the general election, whether you realize it or not.
And for all the hope and talk about substance, Fred's appeal was supposed to be that he was the Hollywood star with the flash. More people vote on feelings and who they like than who is the best candidate.
Bush beat Kerry on the "Who would you rather have a beer with?" contest and Huckabee clearly is winning it in this primary.
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I am a Positivist Pastafarian for the alliteration alone.
"More people vote on feelings and who they like than who is the best candidate. "
Exactly my point, it's all about feelings. Style over Substance. Woe are the people who value reason and thought.
Every wonder why Ben Franklin said, "A Republic, if you can keep it"?
She wins the looks contest over all of them.
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“You are not only responsible for what you say, but also for what you do not say. ” - Martin Luther
Giuliani was fiscally conservative as mayor and TOLERATED illegal immigration, because there were 2,000 murders in NYC a year when he took over alone, not counting other felonies. The concentration was on driving down the crime rate perpetrated against NYC citizens - murder, robberies, drugs, muggings, not rounding up illegals.
thearmchairrepublican.blogspot.com
and an infinitely bigger budget, than Arkansas. Rudy solved his budget problems by cutting taxes, Bubba Jr solved his by raising them.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
NYC 2007 Budget is $60B. The State of Arkansas 2008 budget is $22B.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
Huckabee is really going to take this. H U C K A B O O M
Otherwise he won't break 6 Million for the Quarter.
Mind you, 6 million isn't bad, and could help with the February 5th carnage. but He didn't even break 3 Million in total donations for the quarter until December 2nd.
He's about to get seriously dog-piled. and he's going to need a lot of money to break past the mud about to fly his way.
(when I refer to mud, I'm not trying to imply that the information will be correct or incorrect, simply that it will be negative)
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"The bass, the rock, the mic, the treble, I like my coffee black, just like my Metal." - MSI
SC will shift depending on who wins IA, NH and MI, and there are a lot of undecideds. A Huckabee surge is interesting, but could disappear as fast as it arose.
"There isn't a man alive who hasn't wanted to boot an infant." - W.C. Fields
http://www.redstate.com/blogs/dhannon_pdx/2007/dec/01/huckabee_the_next_...
It's his communication skills. He has a vision and he can sell it.
He is our strongest chance against the democrats, because he can sell our platform and seize the middle while doing it.
in the White House.
Dont we want a President who has ideas that we embrace? Why would you want one that has to "sell" you on his ideas?
You make the POTUS sound like a used car salesman!
is in his 15 minutes of fame! And as I said in another post; this guy is closer to landing the job as the next Jarrod from Subway than he is to being the POTUS!
Please give him back to AK. We Hope you never come out of that hole again.
This is the guy that should go to Hollywood! Who are the real "actor's" in this campaign? Huck acts like he's trying to win "best new actor" in a tired old series, Mitt - Best supporting role to illegals and abortion; Rudy - its all a Broadway act; the conservatism that is. His actual record is at least impressive.
If his numbers keep dropping like this, he can't afford to lose 5 primaries in January. He desperately needs a win somewhere before Feb 5.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”