BREAKING: LA-GOV: Blanco won't run [Update]
By Vladimir Posted in State Politics — Comments (24) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Promoted from Diaries by Dan McLaughlin
From the Lafayette (LA) Daily Advertiser:
BATON ROUGE – Gov. Kathleen Blanco will not run for re-election this fall.The governor summoned staff and cabinet members to the Governor’s Mansion at 4 p.m. to inform them before making the announcement public on live television tonight.
Blanco’s representatives called television stations seeking airtime for shortly after 6 p.m., a highly unusual request that signals a major development.
The governor also called relatives to come to the Governor’s Mansion this evening.[...snip...]
Blanco’s withdrawal would open the door for Breaux, her friend and fellow Democrat, to make the race. Breaux told Gannett’s Louisiana newspapers 11 days ago that he would make an announcement within two weeks, but only after talking it over with Blanco. He also reiterated that he would not run if Blanco decided to stay in the race.
Read On...[Update] The Times-Picayune's story is here.
Although she declared victory in February after getting strong commitments from the new Democratic Congress for legislation to help the state continue its recovery efforts, Blanco's much criticized Road Home program continued to be plagued by delays and glitches. Designed to help homeowners rebuild with payments made through federal block grants, checks became entangled in bureaucracy and red tape.
More than 115,000 people whose homes were damaged in 2005 by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita have applied for Road Home aid. About 3,000 have received grants.
The latest setback came last week when the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development said the state was wrongly requiring homeowners to wait for a series of reimbursements rather than giving them the option of taking a lump sum at closing. The state approach, HUD officials said, would trigger long delays for environmental and other regulations. [emphasis added]
The Road Home program, designed to help residents displaced by Hurricane Katrina, hasn't gotten much attention at the national level, but it has been a fiasco. Mississippi residents all had their checks long ago, with basically no strings attached. Assistance has been trickling out in Louisiana as the bureaucracy set a series of hoops for claimants to jump through that nobody understood. It is hard for Kathleen to dodge the blame for this baby, as she picked the private corporation to run it, under guidelines set by the Louisiana Recovery Authority.
maybe she'll run for President instead? (Sorry even though I like Mitt, this was too easy to pass up)
I still don't think Breaux jumps in, though, and it's Jindal's to lose.
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The CIA has better politicians than it has spies - Fred Thompson
Except I thought it was a John Edwards joke.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
and not I governor...
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The CIA has better politicians than it has spies - Fred Thompson
I don't know why anyone who has left elective office would ever want to go back. Not when money, freedom, and peace of mind can be enjoyed in the regular world.
Breaux is the only Democrat in Louisiana who can win. Which is why it would be best if he didn't jump in.
I'd love to see Bobby Jindal win. That guy is something of a wunderkind. He's smart, he's young, he's republican, he's conservative, and he doesn't fit that liberal "narrative" that the Republican Party is only for rich white male anglo-saxon protestant heterosexual people. He is what's right with the Republican Party.
...well, there's this big White House in Washington he may have his eye on. So-called "moderate" Southern Democratic governor, popularly re-elected in 2011 after pulling off the "Louisiana Miracle" (i.e., state goes from #50 to #49 in education, #1 to #3 in syphilis, etc.). The state has nowhere to go but up; the MSM will see a compelling story...
I don't think John Breaux has much in the way of presidential aspirations. And, if he does, they're an afterthought. After all, he's not out there making soundbites about anything, trying to be noticed. And I think he's smart enough to realize that the Democratic electorate isn't where he is these days.
In fact, I'd go so far as to say that he really doesn't want the governorship in Louisiana. My impression from him is that he's perfectly happy being a retired politician, making money lobbying and such.
What I think this is about is his being a team player -- and his team letting him know how critical it is that they nip Bobby Jindal's political ascendancy in the bud.
He's the only hope they have of keeping Jindal out of that office.
Breaux's about as good a Dem as we're likely to get, and while it's not Jindal's preference, if there's a 2-term limit in LA for Gov, I'd advise him to run for the Senate in 08 instead, and eye the governor's mansion in 2015.
Exactly. Pick off the easy target, Landrieu, and then after Breaux is term-limited, there will be no major statewide Democrats left in eight years who will be viable. Run for governor then, if he so chooses. Then, he will be in his second term as a senator and when he's elected governor, he can choose his successor. And I'm sure he wouldn't bungle it the way Frank Murkowski did, either.
The GOP needs to get smart about playing the odds. I'm tired of seeing GOP seats turn blue because Republicans were too risky.
Those who say Breaux isn't running are kidding themselves. Why exactly do they think Blanco isn't running -- after saying for weeks that she was? Divine intervention?
No, it's because the pressure on her to drop out in favor of a better candidate was too great. And it was great because Democrats are desperately trying to maintain their hold on the state's political machine.
They're also really trying to thwart Jindal's rise for obvious reasons.
I agree that it would be a smart move for Bobby to not run for governor and to instead take out Landrieu. She's vulnerable while Breaux's very popular and may well beat Jindal for the governorship.
But I'm sure Jindal is really looking for an executive position. He wants this governorship.
I agree. Jindal needs to take out Landrieu.
Which one?
Both are part of the White Democratic machine (Dear old Moon Dad ya'll) still mostly alive and kicking in New Orleans. But Mitch could not be Ray NaGun, and Mary is not all that strong in the state and comes off a bit hysterical in the same way the Cajun Grandma does.
On top of that, Bobby is Baton Rouge guy which is way different than the New Orleans Democratic machine, but I'm not sure how he gets on with folks in the Rural parts of NE and NW La.
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Dennis Miller for President...no more wimps!
Jindal's dream is to be GOV. He is only a REP because he lost
the GOV race last time. He has worked in the LA executive branch pretty much since he finished grad school.
I guarantee you there is almost no chance he will change races. In fact, my guess is there will be polling data soon that shows him competitive or ahead of Breaux. The state is ready for change and change is Jindal, not Breaux.
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Social Security Choice - Club For Growth
...Breaux will be tough to beat. Jindal has his work cut out.
He has the name, the name-recognition, the connections, the accent. He has some of the swash (and to date, none of the buckle) of his mentor Edwin Edwards.
He'll be strong in south and southwest Louisana, where Jindal ran strongest. Boustany will have a hard time delivering SW Louisiana, for example; Breaux's hometown is Crowley, right in the middle of the district.
R's will have a hard time painting a nightmare scenario of a Breaux governorship. State politics are about jobs, education and rebuilding.
On the national level, that's bad for the R's as a popular D governor in his first year in office could deliver a lot of votes.
Vlad
Breaux's way exposed on the issue of what's his home. Maryland or Crowley?
Voting...LA or MD (or is it DC?)
Property Tax...Homeowners exemption in MD
Car Registration in MD
Other legal ties to the MD and not LA
There will be a court challenge to his claim to Louisiana resident status, and unless the Democrats in the LA assembly do something silly, he will loose.
I personally think Breaux's moves and noise was all about pushing Blanco out, not running himself. Not sure who will be the D standard bearer, but it won't be Breaux.
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Pardon Edwin Edwards...he needs to run for Governor
... if a LA judge rules he's not a "citizen". They've already staked out the position that they will err on the side of permitting somebody to run.
In the eyes of his natural constituency, a serious challenge to his right to run will not be well received.
Vlad
You're probably right, but it will be a bruising court battle and the challenge for Jendal is to not get sucked into the vortex of it. If he's seen as crying sour grapes before the ruling or part of the cabal trying to stop Breaux, he'll loose much mojo with the states voters.
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Dennis Miller for President...no more wimps!
Bobby nearly beat Blanco in his first shot at the governor's mansion. But Blanco is not John Breaux. Breaux is one of Louisiana's most popular politicians -- and not without reason (wish there were more Dems like him, frankly).
I'm not saying that Jindal can't beat Breaux. But I am saying that it will be a very tough race and his chances of success aren't great.
And a second statewide defeat wouldn't be good for his future political prospects -- which is precisely why the Democrats are pulling out all the stops to beat him. He's a threat to them well beyond the borders of Louisiana.
I agree with most of what's been said here. Bobby does want the governorship -- he doesn't want a legislative position. And I think he'd make a fantastic governor. I also think the chances of him being pragmatic and going for Landrieu's seat instead are remote.
But the Democrats really don't want him to gain any political traction -- particularly in such a fashion that might make him a national political figure with executive experience.
has had her team add up the number of democratic voters who left never to return. You know, all those voters the buses would pick up on election day, couldn't before the hurricane though. Little Mary should get those numbers too, because it means the razor thin margin in her last election will mean unemployment.
I thought Breux was ineligible because of Lousiana's residency requirement. I understand Breux is now a high-paid lobbyist who has declared D.C. as his new home.
If Breux does run for Governor, Jindal would most likely lose. Lousiana is a strange state, it's conservative, but easily falls for the Dixiecrat schtick.
If Jindal loses a Governor's race again, his political career will be over. He had better think long and hard about entering the race if Breux runs.
Jindal is such an intelligent and articulate leader, I would hate to lose him. I think he should pursue low hanging fruit, like Landrieu's Senate seat.
"Back in the thirties we were told we must collectivize the nation because the people were so poor. Now we are told we must collectivize the nation because the people are so rich. "
William F. Buckley, Jr.
Remember the whole Torricelli/Lautenberg flap? Remember the Florida Supreme Court in 2000? Democrats don't care about election law and have shown that they are quite willing to flout it when it suits their purposes.
Yes, technically, election law in Louisiana would prevent Sen. Breaux from seeking the office. But almost nobody expects it to hold up in court. That's a pretty sad commentary on our system of laws and governance, of course. The law is only the law when it's convenient for you -- otherwise, it's a technicality that can be brushed aside.
Breaux's running. It's the only logical explanation for why Blanco dropped out -- Breaux has always maintained that he would not run if she was. And now she's not.
I feel for Bobby. But I hope he does what's best for not only the Republican Party, but for him too. I know he wants that office bad. But it seems that Democrats are bound and determined not to relinquish it to him.
It is not often that a party's prospects of holding a governor's mansion go up when the incumbent pulls out of the race. What makes this particularly interesting is that the state is not especially friendly to the incumbent party. Alaska last year was an example of a party holding the governorship with a newcomer when the incumbent would probably have lost, but it is a state in which the GOP usually wins but where Murkowski would have been a clear drag on the ticket.
This is a state where the Dems are the weaker party, but have one star performer who could possibly hold the seat.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
Unfortunately, the posters advising Jindal to stay out of a race against Breaux are correct. As Vern Kennedy's post-election analysis showed clearly, Jindal lost to Blanco in '03 because the rural "cracker" vote in central and north Louisiana, usually reliable for Republicans, voted for the candidate who's skin tone was more like theirs.
Louisiana is blessed to have a wicked smart talent like Jindal. Jindal is cursed to be from Louisiana.
As has been suggested, he'll have a much easier time if he goes after Moon's baby girl's Senate seat in '08 and then seeks the governor's office in '15 when Breaux can't run anymore and a lot of that cracker vote has met its demise.
Kyoto Now! (Because only pollution from the US hurts the planet)
Not only could LA be turned red, but there would be a good shot at cleaning it up.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777