LA-GOV: Black voters may tip the balance
By Vladimir Posted in 2007 | Louisiana | Spotlight Blogs — Comments (7) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
For Jindal, Black Voters May Be Key
This Saturday's primary results could be largely determined by voting patterns in the black community.
Although Jindal hasn't devoted nearly as much time to courting black voters as he did four years ago, when he narrowly lost to Democrat Kathleen Blanco in a runoff, some polls show him picking up 18 percent to 21 percent of votes from African-Americans -- twice the percentage he received in 2003. If those numbers don't erode dramatically between now and Saturday's primary, he should exceed the 50 percent margin to avoid a Nov. 17 runoff.
Read on . . .
As shown by the graphic, 40% of black voters are still undecided. The dilemma facing black voters in this election is that none of the candidates would be considered a "natural", a traditional liberal Democrat with a base load of African-American support.
Jindal's indicated support in the black community, if it holds at the 21% indicated by this poll, would be astounding, and would virtually guarantee a primary victory.
Georges ran as an independent, frustrated by the Republican Party's support of Jindal. He has made an overt appeal to the black community, but he's a country club R at heart.
Boasso is running as a Democrat, but the erstwhile Republican is hardly a liberal, scoring a perfect 100% voting record with the main business lobby, the Louisiana Assn of Business & Industry (LABI).
Campbell is Public Service Commissioner and former State Senator from North Louisiana (meaning without much natural appeal in the large urban black communities of New Orleans and Baton Rouge). He is the farthest Left D in the race, but the only plank in his platform is an unpopular (and probably unconstitutional) proposal to restructure oil and gas taxation and end the state income tax. His campaign has lagged all the others in financing, too.
to have come to to the same conclusion the rest of American's have and that is Democrats have failed them miserably. I find a lot more Independents in the black community than used to be.
Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion
Jindal hasn't done a lot of outreach to the black community in 2007 but perhaps as Governor he can work to win over some parts of the community. A major school choice initiative in the New Orleans (and other) area could be a good start. A speech at an HBCU never hurts. A little outreach could go a long way, especially if he starts with 20-30% support in this election. He could hold that for a re-election and start making a lot of waves in the Big Tent discussions.
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According to the graph, the total sample size was 500--which means the sample for Black and White voters was smaller. So, for the sub-groups, the MOE is closer to 9 (if I remember correctly than 4.5.) Jindal's support among African-Americans could be anywhere from 12-30%.
The 40% undecided might indicate a low turnout as well.
I think Jindal will win, but I have been unimpressed by his campaign so far. He should be further ahead at this point.
Blacks make up 30% of the electorate, so my rough estimate is that the MoE would be in the 8-9 area. That said, there is decent evidence that no one is exciting black voters. Thus, both low turnout and more R votes are highly likely. He only got 8-10% in 2003, so a 20% showing would be a massive improvement.
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by any of Jindal's challengers?
If Jindal doesn't win this thing, we may want a fence on our Southern border.
I guess it is unlikely that black undecideds will split his direction, but right now he leads among black voters. That's a big deal.
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