Redstate

By Vladimir Posted in 2008 | John Kennedy | Louisiana | Mary Landrieu — Comments (2) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

This is shaping up to be an interesting election. Let me say at the outset, I want a Republican Senate majority as much as anyone. I just don't see that this seat is in the bag.

Mary Landrieu is widely regarded as the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat sitting for reelection in 2008. The diminution of the State's traditional Dem power base has been attributed to hurricane-rearranged demographics and the weakening of a certain Congressman's (hint: intials W.J., D-LA) political machine due to the distraction of Federal prosecution. With Bobby Jindal's election and success as a first-year honeymoon governor, there is an apparent rising tide for Republicans.

Landrieu's highest-profile challenger at this point is State Treasurer John Kennedy, only recently an R, a candidate who launched his Senate bid while running unopposed for State Treasurer last year.

Here's the rub: Louisiana is still a majority Democrat state. The electorate, the middle third, at least, is fiercely independent of party dictates.

There is one policy area where Landrieu has consistently broken ranks with her party orthodoxy: Energy. Say what you will about Mary, she has been a consistent voice in energy matters, especially in two areas: expanding access to more areas offshore and in ANWR, and pushing for a greater share of offshore oil and gas revenues for the producing states.

Continued overleaf...

The oil and gas industry is the heart and soul of conservative Republicanism in Louisiana. Many of the State's best-paying jobs are oil-related, not only in the producing segment but also in refining, chemicals, and in the massive oil-service sector.

John Kennedy's reputation as a "fiscal conservative" stems from his insistence on spending restraint during the Blanco administration. I fear that he will be perceived within the State as being the National Party's anointed Great White Hope as the R with the highest name recognition and therefore the best bet to unseat Landrieu. I fear that Kennedy's support from the State's largest industry will be tepid.

In order for me to get excited about Candidate Kennedy, I'd like to have a good feeling that Sen. Kennedy (R-LA) would be easy to distinguish from Sen. Kennedy (D-MA). We don't need another RiNO in the Senate. We need a Senator whose commitment to conservative ideology is greater than his commitment to personal ambition. (Louisiana's record with Johnny-come-lately Republicans has been hit-or-miss, at best.)

Candidate Kennedy could start by convincing the Republican base that he will be at least as solid on oil and gas issues as the incumbent has been. That may be a neat trick, with $3.30/gallon gasoline.

Here's the Times-Picayune opinion piece that inspired this diatribe (emphasis added):

Landrieu gears up for GOP challenge

[T]his is one of those races that may not be as competitive as GOP forces hope.

For one thing, Landrieu has picked off some prominent Republican endorsements in one of the state's GOP strongholds, the north shore [of Lake Ponchartrain: Bobby Jindal's old congressional district, the most conservative in the State]. St. Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis is backing her, and this month Covington Mayor Candace Watkins, Hammond Mayor Mayson Foster and St. Tammany Parish Assessor Patricia Core Schwarz signed on as well.

All cite similar reasons: Ideological differences aside, it's better to have a veteran in the majority party than a rookie from the minority. It's better still to have one on the Appropriations Committee and heading a subcommittee overseeing FEMA.

[snip]

What if the baseline Republican vote in Louisiana post-Katrina -- the percentage of voters who follow party lines no matter what -- is not a majority, but just 33 percent?

That's the percentage who supported GOP attorney general candidate Royal Alexander on the first big statewide post-Katrina ballot.

[snip]

John Kennedy, of course, is no Royal Alexander, who had little relevant experience and several black marks -- including evidence that he had offered to lobby federal officials in exchange for campaign contributions. Instead, Kennedy has a strong record as treasurer, and as a fiscal conservative.

What he doesn't have is a strong record as a Republican.

He just joined the party last fall, after several years of wooing by state and national GOP leaders.

In fact, last time Kennedy ran for Senate, in 2004, he positioned himself as the moderate alternative to both Republican David Vitter and conservative Democrat Chris John. And he ran with the support of a pair of Democrats who've since been indicted, U.S. Rep. William Jefferson and former state Sen. Charles Jones, something that is not likely to impress hard-core Republican voters.

Before you ask the obvious, "Who's the alternative?", I'd like to know more about current Secretary of State Jay Dardenne. And I note that 2002 Landrieu challenger Suzanne Haik Terrell has left her Washington job to return to the State...

H/T www.LANewsLink.com