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I don't like how this is shaping up.

There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life. - Frank Zappa

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

But North Baton Rouge is heavily Democratic, and there is a black Democratic Mayor-President of the Parish who is part of Bloomberg's gun group. Bush got 54% of the parish vote in 2004, so there's a slight Republican lean, but not so much of one that a Democrat can't be elected.

Ascension and Livingston are two heavy Republican parishes, and they have reported fully. So Jenkins really has to rely on South Baton Rouge to turn out now.

....Cazayoux will need a big AA turnout.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

So, is that good or bad for us?

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

nm

If there are some precincts in Zachary and Central out, which are Republican towns in the parish.

the trendline is bad.

Why?

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

Uhh, I don't like to be a downer, but I mocked the D's "moral victories". I'm not going to get too excited about ours.

A win is a win. Let's hope we do win. If it's close, that's better then losing big, but it's still losing.

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

I hear you. Believe me I hear you.

But in a bad year for Rs, in a district that has gotten more Dem over the past couple years, in a state that is more Dem than often let on (no one freaked out when Dems narrowly won LA-5 in 2002 or LA-3 in 2004), it is often more useful to see how messages play. To see that Jenkins -- a deeply flawed candidate -- closed the gap significantly in the last few days on an anti-Obama message is something of a cause for hope.

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

Is Jenkins the candidate in November? It seems like a comeback win wouldn't be impossible, especially if McCain rolls in this state.

I wish McCain would have come down and campaigned for the guy. That might have helped. To my knowledge, he didn't.

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

Now up by 1000. Odd.

But only up by less than 1,000

There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life. - Frank Zappa

http://electionresults.sos.louisiana.gov/050308state.htm

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

What do you blame it on then?

Honest question.

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

But whining about "the brand" in the absence of any facts submitted, that show that a pervasive anti-Republican sentiment turned a district against an otherwise-winning politican, to me suggests a preformulated excuse and not any meaningful analysis of fact.

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Fair enough.

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

There's no reason why the GOP wins a special election in Ohio by 10 pts in a tougher district, and lose a GOP district in LA other than the candidate.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

It's different. New Deal type/socially conservative D's have always done well in the south. They just don't beat incumbent Republicans.

But I agree Jenkins is probably part of the problem.

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

I'd bet money they favor Democrats significantly.

They just favor homegrown Democrats, not the Massachusetts/San Francisco types the Democrats run nationally, which is why Bush won the state twice.

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

Exactly. They like socially moderate/conservative economic populist D's.

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

Remember Rodney Alexander?

He eventually jumped ship, but remember when he won the special election we were suppose to win in 2002?

LA is just weird. I'm not really sure if this election means anything or not.

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

The 'brand' has nothing to do with fraud, does it?

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

The brand stinks, Jenkins was awful. This is just really depressing.

"Livin' the dream. I'm going to Disney World." Super Bowl XLII MVP, Elisha Nelson Manning

A. We shouldn't scream fraud unless we have some solid evidence.

B. Bush got 59% of the vote in this district. It didn't need to be a squeeker.

Granted, personality is pretty strong in LA, and it tends to be less about party then the person, almost every district is competitive when an incumbent leaves, but I don't see exactly what lesson you want to learn here.

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

BR demographics shifted. Last vote for Bush was pre-K.

There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life. - Frank Zappa

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Oh good grief.

You wanna put money on that?

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

Or so, and 4 senate seats, but might well save the White House. This is me laughing at Obama.

"Livin' the dream. I'm going to Disney World." Super Bowl XLII MVP, Elisha Nelson Manning

More likely about 25 this cycle (including the two already lost in special elections).

Looks like Rep. Fossella of New York is going to jail for 5 days for DUI. The district is slightly democratic but he was considered pretty safe until this happened.

I love these numbers being dropped that just come out of thin air. Or worse, they're done with biased analyses that look for R losses without looking for D losses.

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

Our party sucks right now and the NRCC is terrible.

"Livin' the dream. I'm going to Disney World." Super Bowl XLII MVP, Elisha Nelson Manning

These are local elections with specific candidates who have names and track records. Doomsaying on the basis of superficial national trends, without giving me a district-by-district analysis, each one hinging on the local issues that matter there, strikes me as unproductive at best, and senselessly depressing of much-needed Republican activism at worst.

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We suck right now. I do this for a living. That's no reason to stop working or to give up hope. I'm not gonna stop trying. I think this seat should be picked up in November. But the playing field stinks and we are in a bad way right now.

"Livin' the dream. I'm going to Disney World." Super Bowl XLII MVP, Elisha Nelson Manning

I can only evaluate arguments given here based on the facts presented here though. You may have data to back your doomsaying, but just saying it without showing it doesn't persuade.

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My estimate is a 15-20 seat loss. CQ has a nice map that shows lean D, toss up, lean R.

If Rs win all toss-up seats (as well as all lean Rs), then Rs have 203 (which is a gain of 2 or so).

If Ds win all toss-up seats, then Rs have 188, a loss of about 15.

I expect Ds to win most of the toss-up and some lean R open seats. That could change, but Rs have done very little to give non-partisan voters a reason to vote R this cycle.

The 70 seat prediction of SLC is just silly and unresearched. But a bad year could mean a 30 seat loss.

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...and it was unserious. I was just seeing how people would react.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

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And can you cite me a year in which the NRCC wasn't incumbent hog heaven?

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

It's broke.

"Livin' the dream. I'm going to Disney World." Super Bowl XLII MVP, Elisha Nelson Manning

When was the NRCC ever proven to be decisive in open seat elections? Everything I know about it suggests it's run by incumbents for incumbents.

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

Isn't often decisive I guess, or at least not in a provable way, but if the NRCC had 40 mil in the bank, I'd feel a lot better right now. We have a lot of seats with weak fundraising right now that would feel a lot better if we knew the NRCC would definitely be able to spend a million bucks on.

"Livin' the dream. I'm going to Disney World." Super Bowl XLII MVP, Elisha Nelson Manning

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

McCain need that, I think.

"Livin' the dream. I'm going to Disney World." Super Bowl XLII MVP, Elisha Nelson Manning

On the front page Brad Smith has analyzed the fundraising situation, and McCain's going to be fine in the general between the public funding and his regulatory expenses account. The RNC will thus be able to help our Congressional seats, as I understand him.

But we shall see.

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

The dems have already won 2 new seats this cycle: Foster and Cazayoux

Soon to be lost by the GOP: Travis Childers in MS-1

Incumbents likely to see a prison cell before the election: Don Young / Vito Fossella

That's wins to start.

Then the following GOP open seats:
NJ-3, AZ-1, NJ-7, VA-11, OH-15, OH-16, NY-26, NY-25, IL-11, NM-1

So now we are up to +14. These seats are all more Democratic than the two open seats the GOP has already lost.

And then I think the Dems will pick off about 2/3 of the 15 Republican incumbents in these districts:

NY-29, WA-8, MI-7, FL-24, VA-10, CT-4, MO-6, OH-1, FL-21, FL-25, IL-10, CA-45, PA-18, NJ-7, PA-6.

There will be new elections for all these seats in November. Do you know at all what you're talking about?

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“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

There are generally 3-5 special elections per cycle. Can you name me 1 example of someone winning the special election and then losing the general a few months later?

Foster, Cazayoux, and Childers will all be safe in November.

That just proves I don't memorize special election results.

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

Nor have you proved anything.

A good recent example of my point is that Bilbray beat Busby in CA-51 narrowly in the special election from Republican Duke Cunningham went to jail, and then in in 2006 general won by much more.

More commonly, the special election loser doesn't even try to put up a real fight.

But you keep on telling yourself that the GOP is going to do well in November if it makes you feel better.

"But you keep on telling yourself that the GOP is going to do well in November if it makes you feel better."

There's a difference between clowning around and being a smart-axx..why dont you act civil?

Oh good grief. Maybe he could have been nicer. But maybe you could just quit whining.

We have way too many whiners here. If someone thinks your logic is backwards and tells you so, you shouldn't flip out. Either say why you think it is wrong or just agree to disagree. Don't whine about hurt feelings. This isn't a knitting club.

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

n/t

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The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena

Go to the Man post

a comment by her...

Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson

You are Machismo.. you know that dont you?

"40 million American households with Carnitas are generally happier
than those people in households that don't have Carnitas

Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson

predictions on WWII.

It may be intriguing, but not productive.

Officer and a gentlemen
.."I got no where else to go!"

"40 million American households with Carnitas are generally happier
than those people in households that don't have Carnitas."

A few months? No, next cycle? Yes - Harris Woffort lost to Rick Santorum in 1994 after winning a hotly contested special election in 1991.

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

....occurred during a Republican wave election.

You expecting one of those to occur in November.?

.

MS-01

"Livin' the dream. I'm going to Disney World." Super Bowl XLII MVP, Elisha Nelson Manning

I agree.

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

Bush won LA-6 by 19 points, and now a Democrat just won there by 3. A 22-point swing! I wouldn't be betting on Republicans in any competitive race.

Childers is a very, very good candidate. The "liberal elitist" tag will no more work on him than it worked on Don Cazayoux or Jim Webb.

His TV spots are great, very warm and personable. For example:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Y7oDTGclHp8

By contrast Greg Davis seems a bit awkward on his TV ads. For example here:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Suh0eQ5Kj8s

It's hard to believe there will be a huge Democratic sweep in the congressional races, if the Presidential race is not a Democratic sweep. And especially not if McCain is able to win. I've never heard of such a thing ever happening before.

A couple of months ago, an Electoral College landslide victory for Obama seemed possible, if not highly probable. And that could cause a congressional sweep on his coattails. But now, with Reverend Wright and other things, I don't think that can happen.

I think GOP losses in the House will be tolerable. The Senate will be tougher to bear.

The demographics of the district changed after Hurricane Katrina. A number of blacks fled the devastation in New Orleans to settle there, further tipping the district to the Democrats.

http://www.rollcall.com/electionmap/LA.html

It's the flip side of why Bobby Jindal was able to win. A number of blacks left Louisiana entirely after Katrina, tipping the state somewhat to the Republicans.

This isn't the same district it was before Hurricane Katrina. It has some black refugees from Katrina living there now, and they vote Democratic.

The "black exodus" likely only made Louisiana 1-2% more Republican. The inverse is likely true in LA-06 -- perhaps bringing the District from 59% Bush to 57% Bush.

For instance: Bush won East Baton Rouge Parish with a tad less than 54.5% in 2004. Jindal won the parish in 2007 with 53.99%. And East Baton Rouge Parish is where most New Orleans blacks would have gone.

Nothing's really changed. The demographic issue is only an issue at the margin.

He's certainly got to vote strategically. If he makes one major wrong vote between now and November he's history.

But isn't Jenkins the guy for '08 too? Or is there a separate primary?

"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas

nm

http://politicsla.com/site/commentary/caza/

Interesting article on the race and how a African American Democrat is running in Nov and they wanted Dem to win now so it can be a three way race in Nov this professor of politics in area implies

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explain?

1 district with a poor candidate does not a trend make.

IL, LA, and next month MS... all R +10 districts IIRC.

And all of this is on top of that 30 seat loss in 2006. Those of us arguing that there is something to be worried about see this is a continuation of the 2006 shift. The country has moved 5 points toward the Ds and that is showing up in a lot of ways in a lot of places.

Even with that shift, LA-06 should have stayed in R hands. So it took a controversial candidate to push it into the loss category, but that doesn't negate the fact that any R+5 district is now competitive and D+5 districts aren't even being considered. Heck R+1 districts are seen as "hard to hold." This of course goes back to the fact that the country has moved 3-5 points to the Ds.

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in terms of Dem/Rep. I'm sure that we even agree on the why. Its the remedy that there is disagreement on.

We need to make a case for conservative policies. If we don't do that, picking people with a moderate image is not going to sell.

Liberalism will beat conservatism or moderation in most instances unless the non-liberal candidate takes the time and effort to explain why conservatism works. Once you get into democrat-lite territory, the game is over and the battle lost.

I hope MCCain uses Rudy as an economic spokesman. Rudy did a great job explaining the benefits of free markets.

A loss in a conservative district is bad regardless of spin. A second such loss is even worse. You can blame bad candidates (and that's more than fair to do), but if you keep throwing up poor candidates many will begin to wonder why you couldn't run better ones.

A three point loss in such a district is pretty surprising on its own. After Foster's election, it builds a narrative, and one that you folks don't need right now. That's less spin than simply taking note of who's won where.

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33 years in GOP hands with President Bush winning it with 59% of the vote in 2004 isn't enough to qualify as "conservative" to you?

Sir, respectfully, it shouldn't take a Democrat to tell you that you guys lost a seat that should NOT have been in play. If you want to win, you shouldn't be splitting hairs over things like that.

Republicanism is not synonymous with conservatism, not a bit. You really should get over yourself, especially being a guest here, and do some reading about the factions of the Republican party before spouting off and embarassing yourself. Then you'd recognize that the partisan lines are different in Louisiana from how they are in other places. Oftentimes, both the Republican and the Democrat in a race will be religious and fine with big government.

Example: Note that it was a big deal whether Bobby Jindal would vote for or against the Pelosi SCHIP plan, and that district we won by about 50 points.

Republican is not synonymous with conservative. No, sir, it is not.

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You are correct. The differences are impressive.

As to self-inflicted embarrassment? I know that you can justify this loss by reminding us all that Louisiana is an odd duck politically, focusing more on the personality of the candidate than the party affiliation (if not in absolute terms then in a comparative sense).

If you'd prefer that I modify my language to the following, I gladly do so.

The Republicans flubbed a district that has been solidly "Republican" for a long time.

Happy? That's the only victory on this one you're likely to have, already having lost the district. As for "getting over myself" I'll say this to you. I've been respectful, and I will continue to be so. That doesn't mean that I will concede points or arguments when I find them to be specious. I wonder, by your reasoning (if I've sussed it) what districts would actually be bad to lose?

Time is better spent learning from what happened and trying to avoid a repeat than it ever is spent trying to justify it. I was only trying to point out that I thought some of you guys were dealing with a loss in a less than constructive fashion. Not all of you by any means, but take the lesson in lieu of excuses. That seat should *not* have been in play.

This district has no special loyalty to Republicans. Registration statistics for district 6, as of April 6, 2008, from the Louisiana SOS, broken down by Parish as that's all I could find:

Ascenscion Parish: of 32,324 registered voters, 11,872 Democrats, 12,006 Republians.

East Baton Rouge Parish: of 260,109 registered voters, 130,397 Democrats, 72,946 Republicans.

East Feliciana Parish: of 13,458 registered voters, 8,059 Democrats, 2,992 Republicans.

Iberville Parish: of 10,959 registered voters, 8,094 Democrats, 1,442 Republicans.

Livingston Parish: of 70,687 registered voters, 28,676 Democrats, 23,758 Republicans.

Pointe Coupee Parish: of 7,337 registered voters, 4,352 Democrats, 1,567 Republicans.

St. Helena Parish: Of 8,819 registered voters, 6,392 Democrats, 1,175 Republians.

West Baton Rouge Parish: of 14,886 registered voters, 9,222 Democrats, 2,594 Republicans.

West Feliciana Parish: of 7,169 registered voters, 4,019 Democrats, 1,889 Republicans.

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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater

As others have argued, many conservatives (anecdotally) register as Democrats out of inertia. They don't necessarily vote that way. I'm from South Carolina myself, and I can assure you that I knew more than a few such people.

But continue on this line of reasoning. If you can't expect to hold a seat you'd had for 33 years and President Bush won by something like 18 freaking points then please carry on.

I should have said that many register as Democrats *in the South*.

Nationally it may be a relatively conservative-friendly district, but that doesn't mean it's a lock Republican area.

But you're only here for one reason: to cause trouble. Just freaking admit you were wrong in your gloating and move on. For crying out loud.

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I won't admit to that which is not true. If I were here to gloat I would have done so. Read my posts. I try to be constructive. Don't take a statement of the obvious as gloating or bragging. It wasn't. I don't hate you folks, nor do I wish you to fail miserably in your endeavors. However, when I point out inconvenient facts or approaches, it isn't because I feel inherently superior or am here to lord this loss over you. I just think its a bad idea to try to find ways to explain why this loss wasn't that big of a deal.

I think you're wrong. I gave some reasons, and helpful suggestions. I haven't made fun of anyone or attacked anyone. I'm pretty tame, as far as a sparring partner goes. If you think I'm here to raise cain, you have a low threshhold of disagreement.

is not now defined as conservative as it was from 1980-2001. We were in the ascendency during those years, and even continued in that mode thru 2004 due to dem weakness on defense. In fact, even 2006 was a unique year six greivance election in which the dems underperformed in historic terms.

The fact is that this remains a center right country, and the fact that the center right does not own congressional majorities is due to gop spinelessness in the face of the lib pc msm media and their between election polls.

and more

Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson

This was a winnable district, to be sure, but a) we had a bad candidate, a perennial loser, b) it was a three way split with an anti-tax, anti-pork independent taking about the D's margin of victory in her own vote total, and c) this area has never been partisan for Republicans.

So while I surely think there are lessons to be learned, particularly for the Louisiana GOP and perhaps similarly for other states where there's a historical D advantage but fertile ground for R gains, I think it's absurd to generalize from one particular race and claim that there's some anti-Republican national trend.

For crying out loud, look at what Cazayoux ran on. He certainly did not run as a Democrat. In fact on his issues page the word Democrat only appears way down low in reference to the Blue Dog Democrats, just prior to a call for tax cuts. He says he's pro-life, anti-illegal immigration, pro-2nd Amendment, pro-tax cuts, pro-Jindal and pro-reform.

To take his victory as a partisan triumph is ridiculous.

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Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson

The parties are not deeply entrenched, and people vote for candidates, not parties, in large measure.

The state has tended to vote R in presidential elections because the D's have offered candidates like Dukakis and Kerry. No way, no how do these people connect with LA voters.

Clinton, on the other hand, spoke their language.

This is a state where traditional values matter, where pro-choice matters, where guns matter.

There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life. - Frank Zappa

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Vlad

The roots of modern Republicanism in Louisiana are not very deep, they really only go back to the early 70's and are a result mostly of school busing and the over-reach of the Federal government into states rights.

I grew up in Louisiana during that era, and became a Republican for just that reason, to the displeasure of my yellow dog Democrat parents.

There is also a predominate N/S split along racial lines with the NE of the state around Monroe being predominately African American with some crazy Congressional district boundaries having been drawn as a result of Federal intervention under voting rights claims.

While traditional values are part of what makes Louisiana tick, Republican growth in LA is as much a part of Liberal Democrat judicial power being applied in a heavy handed manner as those core values.

______________________________________
Proud member of the Barry Goldwater wing of the party !

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