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HOUSE RACES

Current Republican Seats In Play:

Arizona 01

Simon (D): 38%
Renzi (R): 45.3%

Trend: Only three polls out since September. The latest one is from Southern Arizone Univerisity. That has Renzi up by 13%. Constituent Dynamics (CD) polled the race in early October and had Simon up by 4%.

Simon: $67,274
Renzi: $673,977

Projection: Renzi has the lead and has much more money. The incumbent wins in this race.

Result: No Change in House make-up.

Read on . . .

Arizona 05

Mitchell (D): 40.6%
Hayworth (R): 45.3%

Trend: SUSA is the only independent pollster to poll this race. From mid-September to mid-October they had the race tighten from a 12% lead by Hayworth to only a 3% lead. The latest poll comes from a democratic pollster and they have it as a 1% lead for Hayworth.

Mitchell: $299,493
Hayworth: $950,889

Projection: No poll has shown Mitchell with the lead. This race isn't even in RCP's list of top 50 House races. The newest SUSA poll has to worry Hayworth a little, but it is somewhat easy to dismiss SUSA and its huge swings. If a Democratic pollster has you leading at this point, then you are pretty safe. It might be within 8%, but Hayworth will win.

Result: No Change in House make-up.

Arizona 08

Giffords (D): 49.5%
Graf (R): 34.7%

Trend: Giffords' lead was consistently over 10% until mid September. The last two polls (Zimmerman and Zogby) show less than a 10% lead.

Giffords: $413,365
Graf: $217,689

Projection: the GOP pretty much has given up on this race and has stopped spending money here a while back. Giffords will take it.

Result: Demcrats gain 1 seat so far.

California 04

Brown (D): 41.3%
Doolittle (R): 48%

Trend: both polls out in October have had Doolittle up by 8-10%. The only poll that has had it close came out in August and it was from a Democratic sponsored poll.

Brown: $381,640
Doolittle: $790,789

Projection: Doolittle has the poll support and the money advantage. He will win.

Result: Democrats still up only one seat.

California 11

McNerney (D): 40.3%
Pombo (R): 43.3%

Trend: Both polls done since September have had the race within 1-2%.

McNerney: $329,503
Pombo: $1 million

Projection: This race may look close, but it isn't. Pombo has the big money advantage and the polls aren't trustworthy. The only polls that have been put out from this race have come from Democratic sponsored groups. There are two ways to look at polls sponsored by one side or the other. The first, which I usually do, is to ignore them. The second, which I only do when there are no other polls available, is to add about 5% to the other side. Doing that would give Pombo the lead. Additionally, if this race were really close, there would be other pollsters running in to poll it. Pombo wins.

Result: Democrats still up only one seat.

California 50

Busby (D): 42%
Bilbray (R): 51.3%

Trend: SUSA is the only one bothering to poll this race. Their two earlier polls had Bilbray leading by double digits then their latest one that came out a week ago had Bilbray leading by 3%.

Busby: $323,858
Bilbray: $183,228

Projection: Didn't we just go through this race? I predict it comes out about like it did last time. Busby got Democrats' hopes up but still lost. I think this race is a good example of how out there SUSA is sometimes. Their polls go all over the place. Bilbray wins, even with Busby's small money advantage.

Result: Democrats still up only one seat.

Colorado 04

Paccione (D): 39.4%
Musgrave (R): 44.2%

Trend: Since mid-September three polls have come out from independent pollsters. The two released in October (SUSA and Mason-Dixon) have Musgrave up by 10%. SUSA had one in September that had her up by only 4%, so another wild swing from SUSA. The latest polls is from a democratic pollster and it is the only one that has ever had Paccione leading, and it only gives her a 3% lead. Definitely goes against the independent pollsters' 10% Musgrave leads.

Paccione: $233,420
Musgrave: $101,825

Projection: When two indepenent pollsters have the race in double digits for one candidate and then a poll from a democratic sponsored pollster has the other candidate leading there is only one thing you can do... call BS on the biased poll. Musgrave wins.

Result: Democrats still up only one seat.

Colorado 05

Fawcett (D): 35.7%
Lamborn (R): 45.7%

Trend: All three polls from this race have come out this month. SUSA has Lamborn up by 13% but Mason-Dixon, which came out about 10 days earlier than SUSA had the race tied. A republican sponsored poll had Lamborn leading by 15%.

Fawcett: $92,554
Lamborn: $44,054

Projection: Two things... 1) If you use my method for the partisan polls, then you would subtract 5 from 15% lead and get 10% lead for Lamborn. That would then match up pretty well with the SUSA poll. 2) If this race were really close, why would neither candidate have over $100,000? I'm going with the two latest polls here and projecting Lamborn the winner.

Result: Democrats still up only one seat.

Colorado 07

Perlmutter (D): 47.8%
O’Donnell (R): 40.6%

Trend: Only two companies have polled this race twice. SUSA had the race tied in August and then gave Perlmutter a 17% lead in mid-September. CD had Perlmutter up by 2% in late August and then had the race tied in early October. Mason-Dixon and Zogby have the race between a 6-9% lead for Perlmutter.

Perlmutter: $323,038
O'Donnell: $424,976

Projection: The race has been tightening, but I don't think it is going to be enough. Beauprez should have sought reelection and not run for Governor. Perlmutter wins this one.

Result: With this seat, Democrats have now gained two seats.

Connecticut 02

Courtney (D): 41.6%
Simmons (R): 44.4%

Trend: Not really a lot to go on here surprisingly. The latest poll is from a democratic pollster and they have Courtney leading by 4%. The University of Connecticut polled a week or so ago and had Simmons with a 2% lead. Zogby had one from the start of October and had Simmons with a 3% lead.

Courtney: $114,354
Simmons: $913,549

Projection: This is a hard one to call. Two partisan pollsters have polled the race and both have their guy winning. Only difference is that the Republican pollster was much more bold and had Simmons leading by 14% while the Democratic pollster has at least kept the margins smaller. It's not good when you have to rely on Zogby and a college poll. But both give Simmons a small lead. Add that to the fact that Simmons has the monetary advantage and the incumbency. It is not a conservative district, but Simmons has regularly been targeted in the past and won. Simmons will do it again this time.

Result: Demcorats still up by two seats.

Connecticut 04

Farrell (D): 43.2%
Shays (R): 44%

Trend: Once again, we have to rely upon the University of Connecticut and Zogby. A democratic pollster came out with a poll in the middle of October than have Farrell up by 3%. UC is the latest poll and they have the race tied. Zogby had Farrell up by 5% in late September and UC had Shays up by 5% in late September, so they trend in their poll is towards Farrell.

Farrell: $485,338
Shays: $812,695

Proejction: This is the closest race so far. Some argue that Lieberman will help Shays because Republicans and moderates will come out to vote. I'm not sold on that theory. Shays has been fundraising very well lately, He just broke records for fundraising this last quarter. But the race is still extremely close. This will be a tossup right up until the end. I don't think the money is enough to sway it either way right now. The national parties will probably be getting invovled.

Result: Democrats have gained two and now we have one toss-up.

Connecticut 05

Murphy (D): 42.2%
Johnson (R): 47.2%

Trend: Only one independent pollster has polled this race so far. And I use the term independent pollster very loosely when I'm talking about CD. Three polls have been released this month, one by a republican pollster which had Johnson up by 10%, one by a democratic pollster, which had Murphy up by 5% and one by CD, which had Johnson up by 6%.

Murphy: $351,013
Johnson: $406,268

Projection: Johnson is the most senior member from CT. I don't understand why the Democrats, in the current environment are having such a difficult time in CT. But they are, and Johnson is the least vulnerable. She has been in tough races before and has won them all since 1982. Her District includes the most Republican area in the state. It may be close, but Johnson will win.

Result: Democrats have gained two and we have one toss-up.

Florida 13

Jennings (D): 48.8%
Buchanan (R): 40.2%

Trend: Trend aren't really relevant here. Only one pollster has polled this race more than once and they are a democratic pollster. They have had Jennings leading by at least 8 in each poll. CD polled the race in early October and gave Jennings only a 3% lead.

Jennings: $178,815
Buchanan: $117,987

Projection: Florida has been moving towards being more and more red lately. This district elected Bush by 13% in 2004 and elected Harris by 10%. There is no way that Jennings has a large lead in this race.

I'll talk this opportunity to point out my complete distrust of CD. Time after time this race they have come in and polled where other independent pollsters have not been polling and have given the Democrats a lead, sometimes a huge, unrealistic lead. If this race were really close then other pollsters would be in here other than CD and democratic pollsters. The Republican party has not even rated this race as one to worry about. Buchanan will win.

Result: Democrats have gained two and we have one toss-up.

Florida 16

Mahoney (D): 49%
Negron (R): 43.3%

Trend: Since the start of October only CD and Research 2000 have polled this race. The latest was from REsearch 2000 and they had Mahoney leading by 7%.

Mahoney: $136,474
Negron: $153,000

Projection: This is a Republican district. It gave Foley 68% of the vote in 2004 and Bush 54% of the vote. But are people going to be willing to pull the lever with Foley's name on it now? The Republicans won a recent court victory allowing them to post up fliers around the polling places explaining that a vote for Foley was really a vote for Negron. But I don't know if it will be enough. Right now, I think Mahoney wins.

Result: Democrats have now picked up three seats and we still have one toss-up.

Florida 22

Klein (D): 45%
Shaw (R): 47.3%

Trend: No pollster has polled this race twice. CD gave Shaw a 8 point lead in August. Research 2000 gave Shaw a 5% lead a couple weeks ago. Then a Democratic pollster gave Klein a 6% lead last week.

Klein: $27,578
Shaw: $1.3 million

Projection: Shaw is leading in the independent polls. He has almost 48 times more money on hand than Klein. Should be an easy win for Shaw.

Result: Democrats up three with one toss-up.

Idaho 01

Grant (D): 43%
Sali (R): 49%

Trend: Just another example of CD trying to make things look better for the Democrats. Not one other pollster has even bothered to look at this race. Then CD comes out and says that Sali only has a 6% lead.

Grant: $505,447
Sali: $883,631

Projection: CD is just a sad, partisan pollster. This race is not going to be close. Sali wins.

Result: Democrats up three with one toss-up.

Illinois 06

Duckworth (D): 44.8%
Roskam (R): 43.2%

Trend: CD has had this race tied in both its August and October polls. Zogby had Duckworth with a 5% lead in late September. The Chicago Tribune came out with a poll a week ago saying Roskam had a 4% lead.

Duckworth: $481,972
Roskam: $476,576

Projection: The latest money numbers for this race may not be correct. According to an 10/19 report by RCP Duckworth has less than $200,000 while Roskam has over $1.5 million. Regardless, the partisan quality of the polls in this race is disturbing. The only decent, independent poll comes from Chicago Tribune (and somehow I doubt that is not a left leaning paper). Apparently the DCC has decided it needs to throw $2.3 million into the race to try and help Duckworth. I would imagine the Republicans will respond to try and keep Henry Hyde's seat. If CD has the race tied and the Chicago Tribune has Roskam leading by 4% then I think it is pretty likely Roskam wins.

Result: Democrats up three with one toss-up.

Illinois 10

Seals (D): 36%
Kirk (R): 50.7%

Trend: Another example of how full of crap CD is. On 10/11 a Democratic sponsored poll came out giving Kirk a 17% lead. A week later CD came out saying that Kirk only had a 2% lead.

Seals: $188,698
Kirk: $1.1 million

Projection: No contest. CD is idiotic. Kirk has the big lead in the polls and a ton more money. He wins easily.

Result: Democrats up three with one toss-up.

Indiana 02

Donnelly (D): 49.1%
Chocola (R): 42%

Trend: IN early October / late September Chocola was polling in the 30s. Since then he has polled higher than 44% in three polls but has still be behind Donnelly in each.

Donnelly: $242,324
Chocola: $656,687

Projection: Not looking good for Count Chocola. I think Donnelly picks this one off. When a Republican sponsored poll from October has you behind then you know you are in trouble.

Result: Democrats have now gained four seats and there is still one toss-up.

Indiana 08

Ellsworth (D): 49.3%
Hostettler (R): 38.4%

Trend: Indiana State and Research 2000 both have shown Ellsworth expanding his lead since early September.

Ellsworth: $48,848
Hostettler: $240,595

Projection: Why are the Republicans having such a hard time in Red Indiana but holding on in blue CT? Seems like Ellsworth will take the seat.

Result: Democrats have now gained five seats and there is still one toss-up.

Indiana 09

Hill (D): 48.2%
Sodrel (R): 42.8%

Trend: Research 2000 had Hill leading by 6% in early September but in a poll released last week they have Hill with only a 2% lead. SUSA did two polls two weeks apart. In the first they had Hill leading by only 2%, in the second they had him leading by 4%.

Hill: $543,016
Sodrel: $666,347

Projection: In 2004 Sodrel beat Hill, but both had 49% of the vote. This is going to be another close one. But after seeing the way IN is going this year, I'm going to project Hill takes it this time.

Result: Democrats have now gained six seats and there is still one toss-up.

Iowa 01

Braley (D): 45%
Whalen (R): 40.5%

Trend: Since September there have been two indepdent polls from this race. Selzer and Co (never heard of them) had Braley with a 7% lead in mid September. Zogby gave Whalen a 13% lead in late September. The latest poll is from a demoratic pollster and they have Braley leading by 11%.

Braley: $342,813
Whalen: $313,383

Projection: I have no idea. Reuters/Zogby gives Whalen a big lead, Selzer gives Braley the big lead. The Washington Post recently reported that the Republicans were feeling pretty good about this seat. Kerry won the district by 7% but Nussle (who is running for Governor this year) won in 2004 by 12%. I think this one is going to be close until the very end.

Results: Democrats have picked up six and now there are two toss-ups.

Iowa 02

Loebsack (D): 48%
Leach (R): 47%

Trend: There's only been one poll from the district. Guess by who? That's why, CD.

Loebsack: $33,879
Leach: $42,336

Proejction: If this race was a 1% race, both parties would be throwing money into it and each candidate would have more than $50,000. This has been CD's method for a while. They go into a House race which no one thinks is competitive and then they come out with a poll having the Democrat either very close or leading. If this race were close, other pollsters would be paying attention. Leach will win.

Result: Democrats have picked up six and there are two toss-ups.

Kentucky 03

Yarmuth (D): 46%
Northup (R): 47.4%

Trend: The Democratic pollster has had the race the same since June. SUSA had Northup up 6% in late September then in a poll from last week has Yarmuth up 1%. CD has the race tied.

Yarmuth: $169,529
Northup: $893,858

Projection: Northup has the money advantage. But this has been a very strange race. This summer Northup's 30 year old son died due to an unknown heart condition and the race has kind of been on hold since then (though, it never stopped the nice people at moveon.org from attacking her while she was morning her son). Northup has been in close races many times and has always won. She has the money and will win again.

Result: Democrats have picked up six and there are two toss-ups.

Kentucky 04

Lucas (D): 43.6%
Davis (R): 45.6%

Trend: SUSA has been focusing on this race. They have polled it 5 times since July. But as usual, their polls have been all over the place. In July they had Lucas leading by 9 then in August they had Davis leading by 2 then in September they had Lucas leading by 4 then in early October they had Davis leading by 3 and their latest released a few days ago has Davis up by 2%. CD has had Davis leading by 3% in their two polls since late August.

Lucas: $236,798
Davis: $1.3 million

Projection: President Bush carried this district by 27% in 2004. Davis has a huge money advantage that Lucas won't be able to overcome. Davis wins.

Result: Democrats have picked up six and there are two toss-ups.

Minnesota 01

Walz (D): 47%
Gutnecht (R): 48%

Trend: Again, only one poll out from this district, and again, guess who... CD.

Walz: $697,176
Gutnecht: $1.2 million

Projection: Gutnecht has almost twice as much money and CD is not reliable. Gutnecht will win easily.

Result: Democrats have picked up six and there are two toss-ups.

Minnesota 02

Rowley (D): 38.5%
Kline (R): 52.5%

Trend: SUSA has been the only one putting out polls from here. Their first one had Kline up by 20%, their second, released in mid-October had Kline up by 8%.

Rowley: $100,731
Kline: $744,892

Projection: Kline has 7 times more money and substantial leads in the polls. He will win.

Result: Democrats have picked up six and there are two toss-ups.

Minnesota 06

Wetterling (D): 45.6%
Bachman (R): 45.4%

Trend: SUSA had Bachman up by 3% in early October and then had her up by 6% in their poll released last week. Strib had Wetterling up by 8% which is good news for Bachman, because Strib ALWAYS gives a huge advantage to democrats.

Wetterling: $783,607
Bachman: $563,656

Projection: President Bush won here by 15% in 2004 and Kennedy won it by 8% over Wetterling in 2004. Strib is the worst pollster in the country and the most biased. If they have Wetterling only leading by 8% then that is bad news for her. SUSA has Bachman up by 6% and I think that is about how it will end up.

Result: Democrats have picked up six and there are two toss-ups.

Nevada 02

Derby (D): 39.5%
Heller (R): 45%

Trend: Only two polls from the district so far. Research 2000 had Heller with a 8% lead in early September. Mason-Dixon had Heller with a 3% lead in mid-September.

Derby: $123,192
Heller: $251,991

Projection: President Bush won here by 16% in 2004 and Gibbons won by 40% in 2004. It's a red district. Heller has the polls, the political leanging of the district and the money on his side. He wins.

Result: Democrats have picked up six and there are two toss-ups.

Nevada 03

Hafen (D): 39%
Porter (R): 46.3%

Trend: Only three polls and no pollster has done more than one poll here. Mason-Dixon had Porter leading by 10% in mid-September. Even the Democratic pollster had Porter up by 4% in late September.

Hafen: $181,573
Porter: $225,171

Projection: Porter has the substantial lead and more money. This one isn't even on RCPs list of close races. Porter wins.

Result: Democrats have picked up six and there are two toss-ups.

New Hampshire 01

Shea-Porter (D): 30.7%
Bradley (R): 54.3%

Trend: No poll has shown the race closer than 12%.

Shea-Porter: $80,966
Bradley: $450,024

Projection: Easy win for Bradley.

Result: Democrats have picked up six and there are two toss-ups.

New Hampshire 02

Hodes (D): 36.2%
Bass (R): 47.2%

Trend: No non-partisan pollster has had this race within 10%. The Becker Institute (never heard of them) came out with a poll in early October saying Hodes had a 9% lead. But that goes against every other pollsters' results.

Hodes: $56,288
Bass: $331,796

Projection: Bass beat Hodes by 20% in 2004. The polls, except for the Becker one, are saying that a similiar result is going to happen in 2006. Hodes doesn't have enough money to compete. Bass wins again.

Result: Democrats have picked up six and there are two toss-ups.

New Jersey 07

Stender (D): 39.5%
Ferguson (R): 48%

Trend: Since May, only three polls have been released from this district. CD had Ferguson up by only 2% in early October. A republican pollster had Ferguson with a 25% lead in a poll released just a few days later. A democratic pollster came out with a poll before both those other polls in early October and had Ferguson up y 7%.

Stender: $279,076
Ferguson: $621,657

Projection: Ironically, the Democratic pollster will probably end up being right. It's another example of CD coming out with a poll more optimistic for the Democrats than polls sponsored by the Democrats themselves. Ferguson will win by at least 7%.

Result: Democrats have picked up six and there are two toss-ups.

New Mexico 01

Madrid (D): 48.8%
Wilson (R): 43%

Trend: Research & Polling has had three polls from here. The first in August had Wilson up by 3%, the second in late September had the race tied and the last released about a week ago had Madrid up by 3%. SUSA had one come out in mid September with Wilson up by 5%, their next one in mid October had Madrid up by 6%. CD's poll from early October has Madrid leading by 8%.

Madrid: $420,040
Wilson: $701,777

Projection: The trend is towards Madrid, but Wilson has been counted out before and has come out on top. Personally, I think she pulls it out. But based on the numbers right now I'll say that Madrid wins it.

Result: Democrats have now picked up seven and there are two toss-ups.

New York 03

Mejias (D): 46%
King (R): 48%

Trend: Once again, only one poll out from this district and it's from CD.

Mejias: $122,312
King: $1.2 million

Projection: Not really worth talking about. King will win easily. It's just another example of CD trying to help the liberals and the MSM to play up the republicans are in trouble story.

Result: Democrats have picked up seven and there are two toss-ups.

New York 19

Hall (D): 46.3%
Kelly (R): 45.7%

Trend: Only three polls from this district. Two from Democratic pollsters. They both have Kelly winning by 5-2%. Then CD sneaks in and says that Hall is leading by 9%.

Hall: $131,519
Kelly: $989,927

Projection: It just becomes more and more clear that CD's only mission is to puff up the Democrats. When a Democratic pollster doesn't have the Democrat doing better than an "independent" pollster then you know something is wrong. Kelly has the lead and the money. She will win.

Result: Democrats have picked up seven and there are two toss-ups.

New York 20

Gillibrand (D): 44.2%
Sweeney (R): 42.4%

Trend: Yet another exaple of CD's bias. They came out with a poll in mid-October saying Gillibrand was leading by 13%. After they said that, Siena College came out saying Sweeney was leading by 14%. Then the latest two polls, both democratic polls, show Gillibrand leading by 2% and 3%.

Gillibrand: $161,674
Sweeney: $301,019

Projection: I hope by now that everyone is willing to admit that any poll from CD is pure crap. Sweeney won in 2004 by over 30%. Sweeney will win this one.

Result: Democrats have picked up seven and there are two toss-ups.

New York 24

Arcuri (D): 46.5%
Meier (R): 39%

Trend: Again, only two polls out from this district. One was from a democratic pollster in July saying that Meier was behind by 4%. Then CD came out with a poll in early October saying that he was behind by 11%.

Arcuri: $313,233
Meier: $248,162

Projection: President Bush only won this district by 6% in 2004, but Boehlert won the district by 23%. The fact that there are only two polls from the district is telling. If it were really a close race there would be more. I'm about 90% sure that Meier will win this district pretty easily. But because there are no reliable polls out at this point, I'll call it a toss-up.

Result: Democrats have picked up seven and there are now three toss-ups.

New York 25

Maffei (D): 51%
Walsh (R): 43%

Trend: Just one poll, care to guess?

Maffei: $52,671
Walsh: $346,6600

Projection: Walsh has 15 times more money than Maffei. Do you think if this race were close that Maffei would have so little funds? Do you think if it were close that some other poll wouldn't be polling it? Walsh wins reelection and further proves how horrible and politically motivated CD is.

Result: Democrats have picked up seven and there are three toss-ups.

New York 26

Davis (D): 49%
Reynolds (R): 42.8%

Trend: SUSA has come out with 4 polls from this district since early September. They have had Reynolds leading by 2% in late September then Davis leading by 5% in early October, then Reynolds leading by 3% in mid-October and their latest from last week has Reynolds leading by 5%. CD came out with a poll in early October saying Davis was leading by 16%.

Davis: $137,985
Reynolds: $1.28 million

Projection: Reynolds beat Davis by 12% in 2004. SUSA shows the race moving towards Reynolds. The only reason the average is tilting towards Davis is becuase of CD and another democratic sponsored poll from early October that showed Davis with a 8% lead. Don't believe it. Reynolds has 9 times more money. He will beat Davis.

Result: Democrats have picked up seven and there are three toss-ups.

New York 29

Massa (D): 45.5%
Kuhl (R): 41.5%

Trend: Only two polls from this race. The first, which was released in mid-September, was from a Democratic sponsored poll. That had Kuhl leading by 4%. Then, CD came out with a poll in mid-October saying Massa had a 12% lead.

Massa: $232,415
Kuhl: $341,090

Projection: Kuhl won the district by 10% in 2004 while President Bush won it by 14%. Again, add 5% to the partisan poll, that gives Kuhl a 9% lead and then just completely ignore CD. Kuhl will win.

Result: Democrats have picked up seven and there are three toss-ups.

North Carolina 08

Kissell (D): 43%
Hayes (R): 46.7%

Trend: Three polls have been released since the start of October. The first was a Democratic pollster. They had Hayes leading by 1%. Then CD weighed in and said Kissell was leading by 7%. The latest poll was from a republican sponsored poll. They had Hayes winning by 16%.

Kissell: $35
Hayes: $794,281

Projection: If CD was even close to being right and Kissell was leading by 7%, then why the heck does he only have $35 on hand? Subtract 5% from the Republican poll and you get Hayes with about a 6% lead. Add 5% to Hayes lead in the Democratic poll and you get Hayes leading by about 10%. The truth is somewhere in between there. Hayes will win.

Result: Democrats have picked up seven and there are three toss-ups.

North Carolina 11

Shuler (D): 49.6%
Taylor (R): 43.8%

Trend: Two polling companies have polled this race more than twice. Onpoint (a democratic pollster) had Shuler leading by 5% in August and now has him leading by 8% with their poll they released about a week ago. CD had Shuler leading by 3% in late August and had him leading by 8% in early October. Zogby had Shuler leading by 9% in late September.

Shuler: $336,865
Taylor: $136,396

Projection: In 2004 both public and Democratic polling showed Taylor's opponent within 2% and Taylore went on to win by 10%. But this time, all the polls are showing Taylor behind. Granted, I don't trust any of them, but it looks like Shuler will win.

Result: Democrats have now picked up eight seats and there are three toss-ups.

Ohio 01

Carnley (D): 47%
Chabot (R): 42.5%

Trend: Only two pollsters with polls out from this district. Both are democratic sponsored polls. The first from July had the race tied. The latest, released a few days ago, had Cranley leading by 9%.

Carnley: $277,575
Chabot: $565,201

Projection: This race isn't even mentioned in most of the websites. There's a reason for that. Chabot will win.

Result: Democrats have picked up eight seats and there are three toss-ups.

Ohio 02

Wulsin (D): 43.3%
Schmidt (R): 44%

Trend: SUSA has polled this race twice. The first, in mid-September, gave Schmidt a 3% lead. The second, in mid-October, gave her a 8% lead. CD came out in early October saying Wulsin had a 3% lead.

Wulsin: $182,161
Schmidt: $268,229

Projection: Ignore the CD poll and Schmidt has about a 5% lead. She will win by at least that much.

Result: Democrats have picked up eight seats and there are three toss-ups.
Ohio 15

Kilroy (D): 53%
Pryce (R): 41%

Trend: No trend, only two pollsters have bothered to check this race. One was our sleazy friend CD which gave Kilroy a 12% lead in early October. The other was a Democratic pollster, who gave Pryce a 1% lead in late September.

Kilroy:$667,760
Pryce: $895,669

Projection: Pryce won here by 20% in 2005. She has more money and she will win again this year.

Result: Democrats have picked up eight seats and there are three toss-ups.

Ohio 18

Space (D): 48%
Padgett (R): 39.7%

Trend: No one has polled this one twice. A republican pollster had Space with a 2% lead in early September. But a few days later a democratic pollster had him with a 14% lead. Zogby then said Space had a 9% lead and CD agreed with that a few days later. The latest poll, from a Democratic sponsored poll has Space leading by 7%.

Space: $188,502
Padgett: 174,410

Projection: Ney's old seat gets taken over by the Democrats. Space wins it.

Result: Democrats have now picked up nine seats and there are three toss-ups.

Pennsylvania 04

Altmire (D): 41.7%
Hart (R): 49%

Trend: Only three polls from this race since September. The first was from a Democratic pollster that had Hart up by 4%. Then Susquehanna cam out about a week ago and also had Hart up by 4%.

Altmire: $54,793
Hart: $500,559

Projection: This race is the 46th closest race as rated by RCP. There's a good reason for that. Hart has a lot more money and she is leading in Democratic sponsored polls by 4%, which means it is more like a 9-10% lead. She will win.

Result: Democrats have picked up nine seats and there are three toss-ups.

Pennsylvania 06

Murphy (D): 43.8%
Gerlach (R): 44.4%

Trend: Not a whole lot or reliable polls coming out of this race. The latest is from a Democratic pollster, they have Murphey leading by 3%. CD has had two polls from here. Their first in August had Murphey up by 5% and then their latest from early October had him leading by 6%. Zogby had him leading by 2%. Keystone Research came out with a poll in late September showing Gerlach leading by 3%.

Murphy: $729,717
Gerlach: $555,960

Projection: Kerry won the district by 3% in 2004 and Gerlach only won the district in 2004 by 2%. I don't trust the Democratic sponsored poll and I don't trust CD and I don't trust the Republican sponsored poll. So that leaves the Zogby poll (which I also don't trust, but I trust them more than these other ones) and the Keystone poll. If you average them then you come out with Gerlach leading by less than 1%. This race is going to be a toss-up until the end.

Result: Democrats have picked up nine seats and there are now four toss-ups.

Pennsylvania 07

Sestak (D): 44.2%
Weldon (R): 46.8%

Trend: There have been three partisan polls from this district. Other than them, there have only been two other polls. The first was from Franklin Marshall College which had Sestack up by 1%. The other was from CD which had SEstak up by 8%. By the way, the poll that came out after CD, which was sponsored by the Democrats, only had Sestack up by 7%.

Sestak: $970,821
Weldon: $296,324

Projection: Weldon had to recently deal with an investigation dealing with his daughter's Russian business dealings. Because the Keystone poll has this race within 1% I'd like to say it is a toss-up. But because of the investigation stuff, I'm going to say it is probably going to go to Sestak.

Result: Democrats have now picked up ten seats and there are four toss-ups.

Pennsylvania 08

Murphy (D): 42.4%
Fitzpatrick (R): 46.2%

Trend: Not a lot of reliable polls from here. Franklin & Marshall came out with one last week saying Fitzpatrick was up by 9%. Two Democratic sponsored polls before that had Murphy leading by 2 and 4%. Before those another Democratic sponsored poll had Fitzpatrick leading by 9%. Before that, CD actually had Fitzpatrick leading by 6%.

Murphy: $448,884
Fitzpatrick: $490,090

Projection: Even with all the Democratic sponsored polls, Fitzpatrick is still leading in the average. The fact that CD actually had him leading makes it a slam dunk. Fitzpatrick will win again.

Result: Democrats have picked up ten seats and there are four toss-ups.

Pennsylvania 10

Carney (D): 49.9%
Sherwood (R): 38.6%

Trend: A lot of Democratic sponsored polls from this race. Since August there have been three of them. The first one in August had Sherwood leading by 4%. But the latest two have him behind by 14% and 15%. Lycoming College had Carney up by 8% in mid-September and the latest from Franklin & Marshall had him up by 12%

Carney: $225,942
Sherwood: $275,471

Projection: I'd prefer to see some more pollsters talking about this race. But right now, it looks like Carney has a pretty solid lead and will probably win it.

Result: Democrats have now picked up eleven seats and there are four toss-ups.

Texas 22

Lampson (D): ?
Sekula-Gibbs (R): ?

Trend: none

Lampson: $1.1 million
Sekula-Gibbs: $163,252

Projection: The Republican party has pulled out of the race and some are now saying that they should support the libertairn, who currently only has $13,558. The Democrats won this one a while back when they won the court battle to keep Delay in it. Lampson will win.

Result: Democrats have now picked up twelve seats and there are four toss-ups.

Virginia 02

Kellam (D): 45.7%
Drake (R): 45.5%

Trend: CD had Kellam ahead by 8% in late August and then had him ahead by 2% in early October. Mason-Dixon came out with a poll last week saying Drake was ahead by 2%.

Kellam: $146,575
Drake: $594,395

Projection: It's going to be close. But Drake has a small lead in the latest reliable poll and she has more money. Drake will win reelection.

Result: Democrats have picked up twelve seats and there are four toss-ups.

Virginia 10

Feder (D): 42%
Wolf (R): 47%

Trend: No trend, just one poll from this race, from CD.

Feder: $532,291
Wolf: $900,661

Projection: Yet one more example of CD trying to help the Democrats. Wolf will win easily.

Result: Democrats have picked up twelve seats and there are four toss-ups.

Washington 08

Burner (D): 46%
Reichert (R): 49.6%

Trend: SUSA has come out with three polls from here. The one in late Septmeber had Reichert up by 2% and the latest one, released in mid-October had him up by 3%. Even CD gave him a 3% lead in early October.

Burner: $711,635
Reichert: $812,621

Projection: It may be close, but Reichert will win it.

Result: Democrats have picked up twelve seats and there are four toss-ups.

Wisconsin 08

Kagen (D): 48%
Gard (R): 46%

Trend: Yet again, no trend. Only one poll from CD.

Kagen: $86,434
Gard: $236,263

Projection: President Bush won this district by 11% and Green won it by 40% in 2004. CD is playing games. Gard will win it pretty easily. Especially considering his huge money advantage.

Result: Democrats have picked up twelve seats and there are four toss-ups.

Wyoming AL

Trauner (D): 37%
Cubin (R): 44%

Trend: No trend, just one poll from Mason-Dixon.

Trauner: $189,509
Cubin: $273,000

Projection: Should be a rather easy win for Cubin.

Result: Democrats have picked up twelve seats and there are four toss-ups.

Current Democratic Seats In Play

Colorado 03

Salazar (D): 55.2%
Tipton (R): 35.2%

Trend: SUSA has the race steady at about 10%, the other polls are from Democratic pollster that have Salazar with a larger lead.

Salazar: $322,279
Tipton: $60,459

Projection: Easy win for Salazar.

Result: Democrats have picked up twelve seats and there are four toss-ups.

Georgia 08

Marshall (D): 54%
Collins (R): 33%

Trend: Only two polls from here and both were sponsored by the Democarts. The first one was from July and it had Marshall with a 26% lead. The last one, from last week had him with a 16% lead.

Marshall: $650,403
Collins: $400,831

Projection: Even if you add 5% to Collins lead to the latest Democratic poll, he is still behind by over 10%. Marshall should win.

Result: Democrats have picked up twelve seats and there are four toss-ups.

Georgia 12

Barrow (D): 42%
Burns (R): 42.33%

Trend: Only three pollsters have looked at this race. And only one has looked at it since July. The latest pollster, Insider Advantage (never heard of them, but they seem to be indepdent) has the Burns leading by 3%.

Barrow: $835,309
Burns: $404,176

Projection: Georgia redistricted so it's a difficult call. I'd like to see more polls from here. But until we do, I'll have to call it a toss-up.

Result: Democrats have picked up twelve seats and there are now five toss-ups.

Illinois 08

Bean (D): 48.2%
McSweeney (R): 36.2%

Trend: Market Shares (never heard of them) came out with a poll a couple weeks ago saying Bean had a 19% lead. CD has come out with two polls since August. The first had Bean with a 3% lead, the second, released in mid-October had Bean again with a 3% lead.

Bean: $187,832
McSweeney: $472,035

Projection: The only poll to show this race within 5% has been CD. Which is odd considering how biased they are. The other have been from democratic pollsters and the last one was from Market Shares (Chicago Tribune). This race may turn out to be close, but right now I'll call it for Bean.

Result: Democrats have picked up twleve seats and there are five toss-ups.

Indiana 07

Carson (D): 48.3%
Dickerson (R): 41%

Trend: Research 2000 is the only one to come out with two polls from here. The first, in early September, had Carson leading by 20%. The second one, released about a week ago had Carson only leading by 5%. Selzer came out with a poll at the same time saying that Dickerson had a 3% lead.

Carson: $317,857
Dickerson: $25,644

Projection: While the trend of the polls looks encouraging for Dickerson, the fact that he only has $25,000 does not. Carson will probably win.

Result: Democrats have picked up twleve seats and there are five toss-ups.

Iowa 03

Boswell (D): 52.7%
Lamberti (R): 38.7%

Trend: No pollster has done multiple polls here. The latest poll is from a democratic pollster, and they have Boswell leading by 20%. Research 2000 came out with one in mid-September saying he had a 11% lead.

Boswell: $294,186
Lamberti: $266,045

Projection: Pretty solid win for Boswell.

Result: Democrats have picked up twleve seats and there are five toss-ups.

Texas 17

Edwards (D): 54.5%
Taylor (R): 35.5%

Trend: Only two polls from this district. The first was from early October and it was froma Democratic pollster. They had Edwards leading by 21%. The second was from CD, also from early October. They had Edwards leading by 17%.

Edwards: $682,909
Taylor: $210,567

Projection: I'd like to see a reliable poll from this district. But it doesn't appear Taylor has enough money to put up much of a fight. Edwards will probably win.

Result: Democrats have picked up twleve seats and there are five toss-ups.

Vermont AL

Welch (D): 48%
Rainville (R): 42.2%

Trend: Research 2000 is the latest pollster to report from here. They came out with a poll about a week ago having Welch with a 10% lead. Before that a democratic pollster gave him a 11% lead. In mid-September, ARG gave Welch only a 3% lead.

Welch: $509,244
Rainville: $69,496

Projection: If this race was really anywhere near close then Rainville would have more money. Welch will win in this very blue state.

Result: Democrats have picked up twleve seats and there are five toss-ups.

West Virginia 01

Mollohan (D): 52%
Wakim (R): 42%

Trend: No trend. Just one poll from here and it was from CD.

Mollohan: $202,389
Wakim: $232,475

Projection: This one isn't on RCP's top 50. But Wakim seems to be holding his own, he has about the same amount of money. I'd like to see a reliable pollster reporting on this race. But if it were really close, another pollster would probably be reporting on it. I would be willing to bet it will be closer than 10% though.

Result: Democrats have picked up twleve seats and there are five toss-ups.

Final Results: If the races turn out like I projected the Democrats would have gained 12 seats. They need to pick up 15 to win control over the House. So, the 5 toss-ups are pretty big. The Republicans would have to win at least 3 of the 5 to keep control.

However, I was attempting to be as non-partisan as possible. I called some races for the Demcorats that I really think the Republicans have a good chance of keeping. So things may not turn out this badly.

On the other hand, if I am completly wrong about Constituent Dynamics (CD), which I really don't think I am, then the Republicans are in much bigger trouble than I am projecting.

Finally, the amounts of money each candidate has was accurate as of October 18, 2006. They were provided by politicalmoneyline.com. Much of the information in my report was obtained from realclearpolitics.com and pollster.com.