Redstate

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"Write-in could win DeLay's spot, poll find" says Houston Chronicle, reporting on an exclusive poll:

http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou061029_ro_delayseat.89758d7f....

"She has a good chance of winning—a very good chance of winning.” said Jim Granato, who heads the University of Houston’s Center for Public Policy.

A blitzkrieg of political ads has shown voters how to cast write-in ballots for Sekula-Gibbs.
Now, the poll indicates 62 percent of likely voters are aware there’s a write-in candidate.

And 61 percent say they know how to cast a write in vote.

Thirty-six percent said they’d vote for Lampson and 4 percent for Libertarian Bob Smither, who’s also on the ballot.

But 35 percent said they’d vote for a write-in candidate.

“That tells me that they’ve been reading the papers,” Granato said. “They’re up on that. And of course, the next step is, ‘Who’s the write-in candidate you want that’s closest to your preference?’”

The answer: 79 percent of surveyed voters who said they’d write in a candidate said they’d write in Sekula-Gibbs. "

My commentary:

I find Lampson's low numbers very encouraging. He can be taken out by getting past 40% mark, and poll shows that voters as of today would give GIBBS about 30% of the vote to Lampsons 36%... the many undecided are probably NOT democrats since Lampson has been running flat-out for months, and is now DOWN from previous polls.

Even more than the high numbers for 'write in' is Lampson's pathetic numbers.It tells me that the good people of TX-22 are not buying his lame campaign.

I had feared that Smithers would suck a lot of air out of Gibbs and vice versa, but it looks not to be the case. Given this poll, it is fair to call Smithers the spoiler and not vice versa as some were implying.

This is a 60/40 type district. you need to get 3/4ths of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters to vote for GIBBS.
That would be 45% of the total electorate.

Poll was 36% Lampson, 35% writein (31% for GIBBS, 4% other). 5% Smithers. That still leaves 25% undecided, most of whom are GOP voters confused or refusing to support ... win over 1/3 of those and GIBBS will win the election.

With this kind of polling, it is quite possible to see a result such as :
45% GIBBS, 40% Lampson, 10% Smithers, 5% other
Not that it WILL Happen, but it is possible.

I'm moving this race from "impossible" to "we may have a chance!"