Quinnipiac Polls: Obama Up by 5 in CO, 6 in MI, 17 in MN, and 13 in WI

By wsjreader Posted in Comments (5) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Bad news for McCain all over the map.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x4141.xml?ReleaseID=1188

Four surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University for the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, fielded June 17-24

Colorado: Obama 49 - McCain 44, n=1,351 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.7 percent

Michigan: Obama 48 - McCain 42, n=1,411 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.6 percent

Minnesota: Obama 54 - McCain 37, n=1,572 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.5 percent

Wisconsin: Obama 52 - McCain 39, n=1,537 likely voters, margin of sampling error of +/- 2.5 percent

It is time, McCain!

They're right up there with Zogby.

Just ignore them, and move on.

Quin historic accuracy is about the same as Zogby, so take it all with a grain of salt. Let's look at the history...

From the WSJ prior to Penn Primary:
"Other pollsters’ numbers disagree with ARG’s. Clay Richards, who runs the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute’s Pennsylvania poll, said he doesn’t expect his poll that will be published Tuesday to show much difference from the last one, which had a Clinton lead of six points. “I don’t see that much movement in Pennsylvania myself,” Mr. Richards said by phone from Harrisburg on Monday. He declined to comment specifically on his rival’s contradictory numbers. (UPDATE: Sen. Clinton’s lead remained six points in the Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday morning.)"

Actual result - Clinton by 10. They missed by 4, right on the edge of their MOE.

So what about Zogby and others historical accuracy? Let's look at the results after 2006:

Again from the WSJ:
"On to the results: In the Senate races, the average error on the margin of victory was tightly bunched for all the phone polls. Rasmussen (25 races) and Mason-Dixon (15) each were off by an average of fewer than four points on the margin. Zogby's phone polls (10) and SurveyUSA (18) each missed by slightly more than four points. Just four of the 68 phone polls missed by 10 points or more, with the widest miss at 18 points.

But the performance of Zogby Interactive, the unit that conducts surveys online, demonstrates the dubious value of judging polls only by whether they pick winners correctly. As Zogby noted in a press release, its online polls identified 18 of 19 Senate winners correctly. But its predictions missed by an average of 8.6 percentage points in those polls -- at least twice the average miss of four other polling operations I examined. Zogby predicted a nine-point win for Democrat Herb Kohl in Wisconsin; he won by 37 points. Democrat Maria Cantwell was expected to win by four points in Washington; she won by 17. (Zogby cooperated with WSJ.com on an online polling project that tracked some Senate and gubernatorial races.)

The picture was similar in the gubernatorial races (where Zogby polled only online, not by phone). Mason-Dixon's average error was under 3.4 points in 14 races. Rasmussen missed by an average of 3.8 points in 30 races; SurveyUSA was off by 4.4 points, on average, in 18 races. But Zogby's online poll missed by an average of 8.3 points, erring on six races by more than 15 points."

As others have said, polls in June are not very value. But they do give useful trends. They tell you that Obama's missteps aren't being used to affect his numbers. Or maybe they are and he is being pulled down from his natural advantage of 10 to 15 points. It does tell you that McCain isn't helping himself though.

"If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country."

And, at roughly the same time, we have this poll, which is by the usually accurate SurveyUSA.

June 17, 2008

SurveyUSA

Minnesota
Obama 47, McCain 46

....they have been very favorable to Obama this entire year.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

After all, that's been the Achilles' Heel of the Newsweek and LA Times polls...

"Once within the maw of Leviathan, degree of digestion is irrelevant." - Michael Fisk

 
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