Redstate

would eventually be released. The question was why did they do it to begin-with, how did Britain handle it, and what lessons did the Iranians learn. Given that I doubt you know their minds, we can only speculate as to the answers to those questions. One idea that was floated, and has a certain logic to it, is that like the kidnapping of the two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah, Iran did this to test the waters... ie test British (and in general, European) resolve, as they are getting a good deal of heat about their nuclear development and this has caused rifts inside Iran.

If that's the case, it's probably fair to say Idontneedajob has consolidated his power, and the Iranians will now go full steam ahead in nuclear development.

So your gloating about being right in predicting eventual release, and that Britiain was right in doing nothing has for me a very "Peace in our Times" tone to it.

I hope you are right, and this turns out to have been handled correctly, but these guys are thugs and bullies, and I cannot in my life racall an instance where giving thugs and bullied what they wanted ever turned out well.

... it's probably fair to say Idontneedajob has consolidated his power, and the Iranians will now go full steam ahead in nuclear development.

So your gloating about being right in predicting eventual release, and that Britiain was right in doing nothing has for me a very "Peace in our Times" tone to it.

Whoah there pilgrim! If you read the link I posted you'll see I was responding to a particular group of bloggers whose arguments would seem, in light of these events, to have been rendered moot. And how, exactly, do you arrive at the conclusion that this was a win for the Iranians? This was a situation in which they took a very extreme position from which they were forced to back down (an aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf combined with new UN sanctions can be very persuasive). If anything, they've been made to look foolish, rash, and (dare I say it) weak in the eyes of the Middle Eastern world. Not even the Arabs will believe that their line about a "gift" to the British.

A precedent embalms a principle.
- Disraeli

They entered Iraqi waters, took hostages under the noses of the British military, then thumbed their noses at the world. Unless you believe there actually was a violation of Iranian sovereignty, they just got away with an act of piracy on a very public stage. They had to have done this for a reason.

The most readily available reason is that in the wake of increasing pressure to abandon their nuclear weapons program, they wanted to get a feel for just how resolute the West was actually willing to be. We keep hearing rumors of unrest inside Iraq. A government that feels it is under siege is likely to create crises to deal with, and this was classic for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

Now they can release the hstages magnanimously after having discerned that the only action the Brits (and for that matter NATO and/or the EU) were willing to take was to talk.

I doubt the carriers in their backyard even played into the equation, as the Iranians knew they were going to be there before the snatch was made.

They wanted to see how Britain would react.... and Britain cowed. I guarantee it is playing that way throughout the Arab world.