Content by qlangley
Posted at 4:19am on Jun. 29, 2008 Mr Mugabe's world tour
By qlangley
Mr Mugabe, I wonder would you please accompany me on a brief world tour? Yes, yes, please do bring some of your generals. And bring a few of your senior police officers. I would very much like them to see what I have to show you.
Our first stop doesn’t take us very far. This, as I am sure you know, is South Africa. And this is Archbishop Desmond Tutu. I am sure you remember him: one of the heroes of liberation from white supremacist rule in southern Africa. I know you would like to see yourself in the same category but, let’s be honest, you replaced rule by one set of gangsters for rule by a different gang. Not the same thing at all.
Posted in Contra Tyrannum — Comments (10) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 1:41am on May 21, 2008 The shifting battleground
By qlangley
One of the odd things about this year's primary campaign is that the likely nominees have both tended to win states which they have no chance of winning in the general election while losing their parties hardcore states. Larry Sabato divides the states into those that are strong for one party (won by more than 10% in 2004), lean towards it (5%-10%) or battleground (won by less than 5%). McCain won the primaries in all but one (MA) of the strong Democratic states, while Obama won only half of the six. Of the 18 strong Republican states that have voted so far, Obama has won 13. Of the 17 that have voted on the GOP side, McCain has won just 7.
Posted in 2008 — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 3:00am on Apr. 30, 2008 Politics as snooker
By qlangley
In the World Snooker Championship matches are decided over 25 frames. The first player to win 13 frames is thus the winner, irrespective of whether the other player has won 0 or 12. Imagine, therefore, that, after 22 frames, the score stands at 12-10. Obviously the leading player has a distinct advantage. He need only win one more frame to secure the match. The other player, by contrast, needs to win all the remaining frames.
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Posted at 4:37am on Apr. 16, 2008 Nobel peace effort
By qlangley
Fresh from his attempts to bring peace to the Middle East, former President and Nobel Peace Prize winner, Jimmy Carter is to tackle an even thornier problem: how to bring peace to the Democratic Party.
"I know its a major challenge," Carter explained, "probably the biggest of my career, but I believe it can be done. I believe that if we get this pair around a table we can make major progress. I believe that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are both people of good will. But, then, I believe that rabbits can swim".
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Posted at 9:22am on Apr. 14, 2008 The credentials clash
By qlangley
Perhaps someone will correct me if I am wrong about this, but I believe that the delegates to the Democratic Convention's Credentials Committee are drawn from the delegates elected to the Convention. This means that delegates from states and territories won by Clinton are likely to vote to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates and those from states, territories and the district won by Obama are likely to vote against. So who has the maths on their side?
Posted in 2008 — Comments (4) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 8:15am on Apr. 14, 2008 Obama is losing it
By qlangley
There has been growing coverage - and a YouTube video could prove the killer app - of Barack Obama's controversial comments about small town America. But his questioning of General Petraeus is equally informative.
According to Joe Klein in Time, he handled himself well. He often does. But the point of his questioning seemed to be to set out a new Iraq policy. It now seems to be his position that since the US is winning, and is on the point of achieving most of its goals, it is the right time to start bringing home troops. In this he is not far off. It is probably still a little early, but that certainly is the right basis on which to bring troops home.
Posted in 2008 — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 4:50pm on Apr. 1, 2008 Book review: The Other Boleyn Girl
By qlangley
First of all, it’s important to note that the book is fiction. It doesn’t claim to be an accurate portrayal of any of the people involved. A simple recitation of the facts is not a story. To create a story the Philippa Gregory has had to weave in portraits of individuals and add events which are speculative, at best. Such works are bound to be controversial. It is a matter of certainty that many people will disagree with much of the speculation and interpretation in a work of this kind. It is especially certain in this case. While the factions that fought the Wars of the Roses a generation earlier are now gone, the factions which disputed the marriage of Henry VIII and Katherine of Aragon were Protestants and Catholics. These factions not only still exist, they run universities and schools. Protestant educations and Catholic educations differ. These differences remain very real today.
Posted in Culture — Comments (5) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 8:47am on Mar. 29, 2008 McCain wins
By qlangley
I decided this morning that it is very unlikely that either of the leading Democrats can beat McCain. His main advantages at present are:
1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton
3. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton
The whole Pastor Wright story is hurting Obama in the polls, but let us not forget the measurable influence of the Bradley-Wilder-Obama Effect, in which polls overstate his support. In primaries - especially in large and competitive states - he is getting creamed by Clinton. It is his huge lead in caucuses that is giving him the edge. When the electorate is wide and gets to vote in secret, Obama loses. A few days ago I was convinced he would get hammered in PA and that North Carolina would be closer than expected. A Clinton win there would tip the whole balance of the campaign, and I was beginning to think it was a real possibility. It still is possible. Wright is surely hurting him in reality much more than in the polls.
Posted in 2008 — Comments (31) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 3:00pm on Mar. 24, 2008 A simple proposal
By qlangley
Wouldn't it be great if there was one simple act that could radically alter the world economy. Well, first of all, let's ask what the problems are:
1. Energy prices are high. Actually, all commodity prices are high, despite long-term downward trends. But oil is unreasonably high, and the high prices are based as much on market sentiment and fears about the instability of the Middle East as underlying supply and demand.
Posted in Economy — Comments (8) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 10:48am on Mar. 22, 2008 Measuring the impact of Pastor Wright
By qlangley
According to the Rassmussen Daily Tracking poll, Obama's lead over Clinton (formerly 8 points, outside the margin of error for polls such as this) has virtually disappeared. He now leads by one point. Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania seems to have increased, while Obama's lead in North Carolina has decreased. While 51% thought Obama's speech was good or excellent, it doesn't seem to have impacted the polling figures yet, and 56% remain concerned about his links to Wright.