Content by MOlsen6
Posted at 4:04pm on Jun. 18, 2008 The Pooh Bear Presidency
By MOlsen6
Well, it has certainly been a banner day for the Obama campaign. First, Quinnipiac comes out with a poll showing that Obama leads McCain in Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, clearly indicating that all three states are "locks" (OK, the actual claims are a 83.8% chance of winning PA, a 82.1% chance of winning OH, and a 58.6% chance of winning FL) for Obama according to Fivethirtyeight.com , which is otherwise a well designed and executed website, if based on a distinctly liberal view of the Electoral College. OK, the Obamaniacs certainly can get carried away easily (with just one set of polls no less!), and maybe even realize that they don't have to campaign after all ... but then there is this:
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Posted at 5:14pm on Feb. 29, 2008 And we are listening ...
By MOlsen6
MSM pundits, like MSNBC's Chris Matthews, are already coronating "King" Obama due to his victory in Texas over Hillary Clinton, despite the fact that the election will not happen until next Tuesday. And we are listening. CNN is sweating out the merger of the Clinton people with the winning Obama people, and talking about the possiblity of a joint "Dream-Team" ticket of Obama for President and Clinton for Vice-President. Clinton's surrogates are already saying "We knew the primary would be a more difficult challenge than the general election." And we are listening.
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Posted at 1:37pm on Jan. 9, 2008 McCain Advice and Analysis
By MOlsen6
At the risk of submitting a redundant and inferior post to Charles Bird, here is my analysis of the GOP race, and my advice to Mr. McCain:
Status of the Race: Up in the air. Right now, three candidates have won a state primary or caucus: Huckabee, McCain, and Romney. There is a crowded field, and some, such as Thunder, are predicting a brokered convention. MI, NV, SC, and FL are up next. Huckabee is unopposed as THE Christian Conservative in the race. McCain is leading for the security conservatives, but this won’t be settled until after FL. Try and work hard to build with the fiscal conservatives on tax issues. The key to winning is who can expand their sphere of influence and recruit new supporters from the other candidates.
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Posted at 4:23am on Dec. 31, 2007 New Year's Resolutions for Red Staters
By MOlsen6
The GOP nomination is likely to be determined in the next 30-45 days (No, I don't subscribe to the pundit's fantasy of a brokered convention). Given the number of candidates and the fact that no candidate has 20% of the Republican Party support according to Rasmussen, roughly 80% of the folks are supporting a losing candidate.
In the interest of de-conflicting the situation before the inevitable occurs, I propose 5 New Year's Resolutions for Red Staters:
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Posted at 5:44pm on Dec. 23, 2007 Poll Analysis: Rasmussen & ARG versus Strategic Vision & InsiderAdvantage
By MOlsen6
Iowa caucus polls are tricky. Of the 650,000 likely Republican voters in the state of IA, roughly 100,000 will vote in the IA GOP caucus. But what 100,000 will vote? That is the question.
Realclearpolitics.com takes an average based approach to dealing with the notoriously large sampling errors inherent in such a small sample analysis. Over the course of many polls and many elections, this method has been quite reliable. Take for example the final predicted electoral college result of the 2004 Presidential election between Bush and Kerry versus the actual final result. Overall, not a bad picture of a very close and difficult to predict election. This is great. But what to do when there are two clearly different predicted outcomes?