Content by theoneandonlyfinn
Posted at 12:23pm on Jun. 27, 2008 ELECTION PROJECTION 6/27: McCAIN GAINS ON OBAMA
By theoneandonlyfinn
After weeks of an Obama bounce, McCain regains footing in the South while the Midwest solidifies around Barack:
Theres good news here for both candidates.
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Posted at 12:09pm on Jun. 25, 2008 ELECTION PROJECTION- 6/25: McCAIN 210 OBAMA 306 TIED 22
By theoneandonlyfinn
Don't kill the messenger...
A very, very good month so far for Obama, originating moments after he locked up the nomination.
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Posted at 1:23pm on Jun. 18, 2008 ELECTION PROJECTION- 6/18: McCain 249 Obama 289
By theoneandonlyfinn
I'm going to be out of town for the next few days...so Im going ahead and updating my earlier projection with the latest polls:
PPP Virginia gives Obama +2
Rasmussen Vriginia gives Obama + 1
this now makes the state average Obama +1.2
PPP Ohio gives Obama +11
Quinnipiac Ohio gives Obama +6
the expiration of Q's may poll coupled with the expiration of Rasmussen now skews the average to Obama +5.5 his best performance in the Buckeye state since I started these projections here.
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Posted at 5:28pm on Jun. 16, 2008 ELECTION PROJECTION- 6/16: McCAIN 262 OBAMA 256 TIED 20
By theoneandonlyfinn
Obamas unity bounce has continued as McCains leads in Nevada, Missouri and Virginia have shrunk dramatically, and Obamas leads in Washington (now +11) Wisconsin (now +8) and Iowa (now +6) have grown considerably.
With Rasmussen and Mason Dixons latest polls in the last week,
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Posted at 10:56pm on Jun. 9, 2008 ELECTION PROJECTION- 6/9: McCAIN 282 OBAMA 256
By theoneandonlyfinn
Note- recent data out of Missouri by Rasmussen skews the average to just +1.5 McCain- Obamas best performance since his February high.
We may very well face the possibility of Obama racking up huge numbers in the traditionally Democratic states, enough to give him a substantial lead in the popular vote - yet unless he can swing back the blue collar voters in states like Michigan and Ohio, he could still lose the electoral vote and the election.
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Posted at 1:48pm on Jun. 2, 2008 ELECTION PROJECTION- 6/2: McCain 286 Obama 252
By theoneandonlyfinn
Identical to the EV tally from 2004.
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Posted at 12:04pm on May 30, 2008 ELECTION PROJECTION- 5/30: McCain 296 Obama 242
By theoneandonlyfinn
All New Map Design! (mainly because I'm very busy/lazy and this is faster to update)
As polling data out of Michigan keeps pouring in (from both EPIC and SurveyUSA this week), the state is looking better and better for McCain.
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Posted at 2:49pm on May 27, 2008 ELECTION PROJECTION 5/27: McCAIN 276 OBAMA 242 TIED 20
By theoneandonlyfinn
Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.
SurveyUSA's 9pt lead for Obama there scared a few on the right...until Quinnipiac's non-robo poll that used twice the sample size and a more balanced political electorate sample (and Q is pretty left-leaning in most cycles) gives McCain a +4 lead. Scott Rasmussen stuck his nose in the Buckeye state once more before the SUSA poll was released, giving McCain a +1 lead there.
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Posted at 1:05pm on May 20, 2008 ELECTION PROJECTION- 5/20: McCain 296 Obama 242
By theoneandonlyfinn
Note- as of May 17, I stopped tracking data for Clinton. While it "aint over til its over", theres as much chance of her stealing the nomination from Obama as there is for me to vote for either of them...also projection dated for 5/18- no change in data since then...
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Posted at 2:30am on May 13, 2008 ELECTION PROJECTION- 5/13: Mac 301 Obummer 237 (with bonus!)
By theoneandonlyfinn
First the projections, and then...what EXACTLY are the swing states?
SCENERIO ONE- McCAIN V OBAMA
SCENERIO TWO- McCAIN V CLINTON
