Content by Adam C2
Posted at 10:22pm on Aug. 3, 2006 SEN-TN: Primary Election Results
By Adam C2
The Republican Senate primary in Tennessee is hotly contested. Center-right Chattanooga Mayor Corker is expected to win a plurality over the two more conservative nominees: Van Hilleary and Bryant. The election was today and results are starting to come in. The winner will take on moderate Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. for the chance to replace retiring Republican Senator Bill Frist next year. Newest update on top.
Update [2006-8-4 7:43:19 by Adam C]:
As of 8:32 AM EDT with 78% of precincts reporting, the results are:
Corker 186,466 48.2%
Bryant 134,713 34.8%
Van Hilleary 61,533 15.9%
That lead is practically insurmountable. Bob Corker will be the Republican nominee for the Senate for Tennessee. Hopefully the negative primary can be kept in the past and the candidates can rally behind Mayor Corker.
As of 11:03 PM EDT with 900 or so precincts out of 2432 reporting, the results are:
Corker 128,989 50.0%
Bryant 88,384 34.3%
Van Hilleary 38,194 14.8%
As of 10:31 PM EDT with 675 precincts out of 2432 reporting, the results are:
Corker 105,457 49.7%
Bryant 74,971 35.3%
Van Hilleary 30,142 14.2%
As of 10:13 PM EDT with 304 precincts out of 2432 reporting, the results are:
Corker 85,098 51.6%
Bryant 55,857 33.8%
Van Hilleary 22,725 13.8%
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Posted at 4:22pm on Jul. 31, 2006 VT-AL: Republican Pick-up?
By Adam C2
I am somewhat unaware of ARG's track record on polling, but today's release on VT is mildly surprising in a good way:
SEN:
Sanders (I) 56
Tarrant (R) 35
REP:
Welch (D) 41
Rainville (R) 42
GOV:
Parker (D) 36
Douglas (R) 47
The incumbent Governor, Douglas, has generally led most polls and seems to be in a good position to win re-election. When he passed on running for Senate, Rep. Sanders' (I) corronation seemed inevitable. Mr. Sanders still leads by a large margin in his race, but Mr. Tarrant polls better here than in past polls. However, it is the At Large House seat that brings the best news. Republican strategists have played up Ms. Rainville's chance in VT but this is the first poll I've seen and it shows they were right to be excited. Martha Rainville has an impressive military background including her stint as Adjutant General of the Vermont National Guard. She was the first woman to serve in this role in the 370 year history of the Vermont National Guard. I will be watching this race closer to see if she's the real deal for VT.
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Posted at 9:04pm on Jul. 22, 2006 State of the Governors - July 22, 2006
By Adam C2
The most recent SUSA 50 state Governor approval rankings were just released. 33 Governors have over 50% approval. Of the 17 who are under 50%, 8 are running for re-election this year. The endangered incumbents are:
GOVERNOR APP DIS
WI: Doyle (D) 48% 45%
TX: Perry (R) 47% 48%
IL: Blagojevich (D) 44% 51%
ME: Baldacci (D) 44% 52%
MI: Granholm (D) 43% 53%
CA: Arnold (R) 40% 57%
OR: Kulongoski (D) 39% 55%
AK: Murkowski (R) 21% 76%
Note that there are many more open seats that are filled by Republicans at present, so the overall gubernatorial picture still favors Democrats. However, 5 of the 8 endangered incumbents in this cycle are Democrats. More on these races below.
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Posted at 11:49pm on Jul. 19, 2006 2008: Who is acceptable? McCain?
By Adam C2
Gallup has a new poll out on acceptability of possible candidates in 2008. These are only Republicans polled on the Republican candidates:
2006 Jun 26-29 Yes No Net
Rudy Giuliani 73 25 +48
Condi Rice__ 68 29 +39
John McCain_ 55 41 +14
George Allen_ 36 35 +1
Newt Gingrich 45 50 -5
Bill Frist____ 38 44 -6
Mitt Romney__ 31 42 -11
Jeb Bush___ 44 52 -13
Dick Cheney__ 34 61 -17
George Pataki 33 51 -18
Mike Huckabee 17 40 -23
Sam Brownback 14 43 -29
Gallup led with the story that McCain has over 40% of Republicans who find him unacceptable. That is accurate and I actually expected a higher number. But the surprising part of these numbers is that the following people have higher negatives: Gingrich, Frist, Romney, Jeb Bush, Cheney, Pataki, and Brownback. Also surprising is that McCain has the third highest net rating on acceptability.
Note that acceptability is not a pledge to vote for a person, but the most common criticism of McCain is that he is flat unacceptable to many conservatives. This poll seems to show that he is no more unacceptable than other early 2008 hopefuls. That must give heart to the McCainiacs.
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Posted at 2:19pm on Jul. 18, 2006 McCain Update
By Adam C2
From today's Political Diary ($ sub),
John McCain Takes Manhattan (Institute)
John McCain has been patching up relations with conservatives of late, and yesterday he attended a breakfast at the Manhattan Institute, New York's leading free-market think-tank, to rub shoulders with its donors....
He appealed to general conservative themes with a ringing endorsement of property rights, the use of nuclear power and the need to encourage democracy in Iran. But when asked why he had told Arizona reporters he supported the teaching of "intelligent design" in schools, the senator made clear he believed in the theory of evolution but that he didn't think students should be shielded from other ideas. "Local school boards, not the federal government, can decide where it is taught, and it doesn't have to be in science class," he said....
Mr. McCain said that he supported making the Bush tax cuts permanent and the use of private accounts to shore up Social Security. But he also called for a return to the spirit of cooperation that he said reigned during the Reagan administration when a bipartisan commission headed by Alan Greenspan helped patch up Social Security. He failed to note that to placate Democrats, the final product significantly increased the payroll tax in exchange for a gradual increase in the retirement age.
The senator also warned about a rising tide of protectionist trade sentiment....
Mr. McCain seemed clearly aware that his audience was not overly friendly to his efforts to limit campaign contributions. When asked if his desire for tougher campaign finance laws would interfere with him naming conservative judges such as John Roberts and Samuel Alito, Mr. McCain said he believed the issue had largely been settled and he looked forward to appointing judges conservatives would approve of.
All in all, Mr. McCain scored points by giving direct answers to most of the questions he received and for exhibiting a refreshing candor about the need for Republicans to restrain spending if they hope to bring their voters to the polls in future elections. He has clearly decided that the Republican Party is a big tent, and that to win the 2008 nomination for president he needs good relations with groups in every corner of it.
Emphasis mine.
He may not have many fans here, but he is clearly winning over converts as time goes by. Republicans have a habit of nominating the person "whose turn it is" as opposed to the Democrats ability to pick a new face, for better or for worse. I am still holding out hope for a Gov Sanford or Gov Pawlenty run. But at least if McCain becomes the nominee, it seems he is learning to engage all parts of the party rather than run against it. He's learned some lessons from 2000 and it seems to be benefiting him.
Update [2006-7-18 14:22:52 by Adam C]: Some parts of the story were deleted to meet the guidelines of the WSJ's subscription agreement barring total re-printing of an article.
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Posted at 2:13am on Jul. 18, 2006 Swing Region: Midwest or Mountain West?
By Adam C2
I've written before about the Midwest as the current "swing region" in politics, especially in 2006 and 2008. The Governor races in MI, WI, MN, IL, and OH are all close and excepting IL are in states where the Presidential race was within 5 points. OpinionJournal noted the same thing with a focus on the upper midwest. For Republicans, picking up MN, WI, and MI is worth 37 electoral votes while solidifying OH is worth 20 on its own. If PA is included, the total is 78 EVs in 5 states. Let's put the midwest on hold for a minutes and talk about the Mountain West.
Ryan Sager, noted libertarian Republican, argues in his book The Elephant in the Room that the libertarian wing of the Republican Party is looking into their options as the Republicans become more Southern and less Western. A recent column lays out the basic argument that AZ, NM, CO, NV, WY, ID, UT and MT are about to become the new "swing region." This seems more probable in AZ, CO, NM, NV, and MT than the others but the numbers in the region are worth looking into. More below.
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Posted at 12:19pm on Jul. 17, 2006 MD-SEN: Cheer for Mfume
By Adam C2
That's the lesson repeated by almost every poll in this race and the most recent one from the Baltimore Sun is no different:
PRIMARY:
"If the primary were held today, the survey finds, each candidate would get about three out of 10 votes....
Cardin, a 10-term congressman who lives in Baltimore County and represents Maryland's 3rd District, leads Mfume among white voters, 41 percent to 14 percent; among those 65 and older, 33 percent to 21 percent; and among those who frequently vote in primaries, 34 percent to 26 percent....
Mfume, a former five-term Baltimore congressman and past president and chief executive officer of the NAACP, leads Cardin among African-American voters, 57 percent to 12 percent. He leads among voters under 35, 39 to 17 percent; and among occasional primary voters, 32 percent to 23 percent."
GENERAL:
Steele 36
Cardin 47
Steele 40
Mfume 42
"Among white voters, Steele leads Mfume, 48 percent to 33 percent. Among African-American voters, Mfume leads Steele, 71 percent to 11 percent."
The primary isn't until September, so this one has a while to go. No matter what, the late primary will suck money away from the eventual Democratic nominee. The best case scenario for Lt. Gov. Steele is for the Democrats to go negative on each other, especially if Rep. Cardin goes negative on ex-Rep. Mfume. This would likely upset many black Democrats who are already upset with the Democratic treatment of Mr. Mfume. Specifically, when Mr. Mfume was the first to enter the race no Democratic bigwigs jumped in to support him. But when Mr. Cardin threw his hat in the ring, they started lining up. This lack of support for black candidates did not go unnoticed. If it is followed up by a negative campaign, then two things might happen that would help Mr. Steele. This assume that Mr. Cardin does win, which is still more likely.
First, Mr. Mfume may refuse to endorse Mr. Cardin. Mr. Steele and Mr. Mfume seem to genuinely get along on a personal level and Mr. Mfume has nothing to lose by snubbing the country club Democratic leadership in Maryland. This would help Mr. Steele win votes among black voters. Even better, there is a small chance that Mr. Mfume could endorse Mr. Steele which would probably effectively end the race in favor of Mr. Steele.
Second, black voters may just stay home if they feel the the Democratic Party has taken them for granted again. This is less likely now that the Lt. Gov. nominee and an Attorney General nominee are black. Nevertheless, if Cardin goes negative it may still lead to fewer black voters casting a ballot for him.
The conundrum for Mr. Cardin is that unless he starts doing something, the momentum right now is with Mr. Mfume. So Mr. Cardin is caught between letting the primary slip away and alienating a large part of his base for the general election. Tough choices ahead.
Update [2006-7-17 15:27:46 by Adam C]: Here are the primary numbers, now that I found them:
Primary Election Matchup
Cardin 32
Mfume 28
Other/Undec 40
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Posted at 11:48am on Jul. 8, 2006 Partisan Politics: The Long Run
By Adam C2
Grover Norquist sat down with the American Prospect to discuss the future of Republicanism, Democratism, and the conservative movement. His insights are clear and forward thinking. I agree with almost all of his analysis. Here are a few key points, although I recommend the whole interview:
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Posted at 10:49pm on Jul. 5, 2006 Mexican Elections: Votes being counted
By Adam C2
Note now that I do not speak nor read Spanish well. My understanding is that vote counting in the Mexican election has begun and results can be seen here. Mr. Lopez has lead the whole evening, but the margin has fallen quickly as the PAN strongholds have reported. The most recent update was at 9:57 PM CDT (also Mexican time):
Lopez led by 1.31% over Calderon with 88.96% reporting. At the rate of narrowing over the past few updates, it is likely that the race wil be within the .2% one way or the other. Of course the rate could speed up or slow down. If anyone reads Spanish, please help translate the posts at the link above. Specifically the one at 21:59 which seems to be an announcement from the IFE.
Update [2006-7-6 10:42:13 by streiff]: Calderon wins. "With 99.56 percent of the vote counted, Felipe Calderon would win even if all the remaining votes went to Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party. He had 35.82 percent of the vote, compared with 35.37 percent for Lopez Obrador."
Update [2006-7-6 9:24:23 by streiff]: Surprise, surprise, surprise "Mexico's leftist presidential candidate refused on Thursday to accept election results that showed him losing narrowly and said he would challenge them in court."
Update [2006-7-6 8:52:10 by streiff]: Calderon still in lead: "With 99.2 percent of the vote tallies counted, Calderon had 35.77 percent of the vote, while Lopez Obrador had 35.42 percent.
Electoral officials did not immediately release vote totals, but the percentages translated into an estimated difference between the candidates of about 142,000 votes."
Update [2006-7-6 7:57:56 by streiff]: Calderon lead holds: "With 99 percent of the ballots cast, Calderon was ahead by a margin of 0.33 of a percentage point, about 130,000 ballots."
Update [2006-7-6 6:49:1 by streiff]:Calderon regains narrow lead, "With nearly 98 percent of the vote tallies recounted, Calderon had 35.62 percent of the vote, while his opponent Andres Lopez Obrador had 35.57."
Update [2006-7-6 0:38:50 by Adam C]: Calderon has gained on Lopez over the past few hours. At about 1 AM with 94.69% reporting, Lopez leads by .62%.
Lopez 35.91
Calderon 35.29
If the gap narrows at the same pace as it has for the past few hours, Calderon should win by between .1% and .2% which is around 50,000 votes out of 41 million. Also note that the "pre-count" from Sunday showed Calderon winning by 1%:
Lopez (PRD) 35.4
Calderon (PAN) 36.4
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Posted at 12:50pm on Jul. 3, 2006 SEN-CT: Lieberman (I-CT) starts petition drive
By Adam C2
After feeling the heat from anti-war leftists in the Democratic primary in Connecticut, Sen. Liebermann is calling a press conference today to announce that he will be petitioning to run as an Independent. He is calling himself an "independent Democrat" and will continue to run in the Democratic primary. However, if he loses the primary this will allow him to run in the general election as an independent.
Polls show Lieberman winning a three-way race against Lamont (D) and Schlesinger (R). However, if he loses the primary, it most likely will hurt his image in the general election. It is unlikely that the Republican will emerge from this three way race, but it is more likely than any two way race.