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Posted at 1:17pm on Aug. 30, 2006 Rudy Gives 2008 Preview

By The Bij

Cross-posted at Race 4 2008.

Hizzoner was in the Twin Cities last night to raise money for Senate candidate Mark Kennedy. Rudy was the featured speaker at even which also included Sen. Norm Coleman and Rep. John Kline.

This is the second time that I have heard Hizzoner speak at one of these small fundraisers, and I can tell you that he has not failed to impress.

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Posted at 2:00am on Jul. 18, 2006 Addressing the Abortion Meme

By The Bij

Cross-posted at Race 4 2008.

When discussing the candidates for the 2008 Republican nomination for President, invariably at least one pundit will declare that "No Pro-Choice candidate can ever will the GOP nomination". Having stated this "known fact", the pundit will usually go on to definitively dismiss the chances of one or more of the candidates in the GOP field.

The fact that an openly Pro-Choice candidate could never win the Republican nomination will not be debated here. Even the most liberal Republican must concede this point. However, the problem lies with the inherent dishonestly, the "sleight of hand" if you will, of the statement. The real question is whether a candidate that has espoused Pro-Choice ideals in the past can win the Republican nomination for President if they have properly reformed their opinion to fall in line with the majority opinion of the Republican Party. Or perhaps more succinctly: Is a Pro-Choice Presidential candidate able to modify their position on abortion to appease the Republican base? I believe that history shows the not only to be possible, but the norm in the Republican nomination process.

Due to the thesis in question, I will include as evidence policy enacted, signed, or championed during any elected term of the candidates detailed here. The statement in question is in itself a declaration of purity on this issue. Surely then, any legislation signed as an elected official that would serve to increase the number of abortions or further the Pro-Choice agenda in any way would be viewed by the "True Believers" of the GOP as evidence of softness on this issue and will be treated as such here.

Not discussed here will be any impact of nominating a formerly Pro-Choice candidate the 2008 general election. This essay discussing the impact on the Republican nomination process alone.

Past Nominees

Let's begin by taking a look at the first post-Roe open contest-

1980

1980 was essentially a two-man race from the very beginning, 1976 2nd place finisher Pro-Life Ronald Reagan versus Pro-Choice George H.W. Bush.

George H.W. Bush was the liberal candidate in the race. Dr. Larry M. Bartels recalls Bush's 1980 candidacy in his seminal "Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice":

"By 1980 I was ready to begin (working on this book) again, and I remember being delighted as well as provoked when three different friends-all reasonably sophisticated liberal Democrats-began to talk enthusiatically about George (H.W.) Bush in the weeks following his dramatic emergence in the 1980 Iowa Republican Caucuses"

Bush went on to defeat Ronald Reagan in Iowa before his campaign was derailed in New Hampshire.

Bush becomes the model for future Republican presidential candidates. After his selction as VP, Bush was able to reform his abortion stance in order to become acceptable to the Republican base when it was his turn in 1988. By that time, not even Evangelical Minister Pat Robertson could do enough damage to Bush on this issue to deny him the nomination.

But what about the the man at the top of the ticket?

Almost no one denies that Ronald Reagan detested abortion personally (although there are dissenters out there). In 1983, President Reagan submitted an unsolicted Op-Ed to The National Review entitled "Abortion and the Conscience of the Nation" where he argued that, "We cannot diminish the value of one category of human life -- the unborn -- without diminishing the value of all human life."

However, Reagan's actions as Governor of California would certainly be cause for controversy in today's nomination process. As biographer Lou Cannon notes in his chronicle of Reagan's time as Governor "The Role of a Lifetime":

"Reagan was not as obsessive about anti-abortion legislation as he often seemed. Early in his California governorship he had signed a permissive abortion bill that has resulted in more than a million abortions. Afterward, he inaccurately blamed this outcome on doctors, saying that they had deliberately misinterpreted the law. When Reagan ran for president, he won backing from pro-life forces by advocating a constitutional amendment that would have prohibited all abortions except when necessary to save the life of the mother. Reagan's stand was partly a product of political calculation, as was his tactic after he was elected of addressing the annual pro-life rally held in Washington by telephone so that he would not be seen with the leaders of the movement on the evening news. While I do not doubt Reagan's sincerity in advocating an anti-abortion amendment, he invested few political resources toward obtaining this goal."

1996

This bring us to the next open nomination, that of Senator Bob Dole in 1996. Dole was able to gain the nomination over more socially conservative candidates Pat Buchanan and Alan Keyes.

Social Conservatives were uneasy regarding Senator Bob Dole's abortion stance from the very beginning of the campaign. Noted as the only person who could "could bridge the gap between the moderate and conservative wings of the Kansas Republican Party." Many conservatives wondered about Dole's commitment to the Pro-Life movement.

1996 perhaps marks the highwater mark of influence of Pro-Choice adherents on the Republican Party, with politicians such as Christine Todd Wittman, among many others, loudly calling for a Pro-Choice running mate, and warning of impending doom if the GOP did not take a more moderate abortion stance.

Anti-abortion activists found their fears confirmed as soon as Dole won the nomination. Dole openly advocated moderating the Republican Party platform adopt a "declaration of tolerance for divergent points of view" regarding abortion.

2000

The 2000 election brings us the most Pro-Life field of candidates since Roe. However, once again the frontrunners were not without their problems in this regard.

Texas Governor George W. Bush was responsible for appointing the majority of judges on a Texas Supreme Court that ruled the Texas Parental Notification statute unconstitutional. Bush also stated that he did not believe that the country was "ready" to overturn Roe vs. Wade.

Arizona Senator John McCain, despite having a lifetime record being strognly Pro-Life, created doubt in the minds of GOP primary voters when it came to light that he privately assured a group of San Francisco newspaper editors that he would not make the overturning of Roe vs. Wade a priority in his administration, as well as vocally attacking the leaders of the Religious Right. These two actions served to cancel out whatever gains McCain may have enjoyed by gaining the support of retiring 2000 GOP candidate Gary Bauer, the strongest So-Con candidate in the race.

This illustration of past Republican Presidential candidates shows us that a GOP Presidential nominee need not be 100% ideologically pure in regards to abortion. Pat Robertson, Pat Buchanan, and Gary Bauer have all failed in their attempts at the nomination over candidates with much weaker Pro-Life credentials. However, what it does show is that candidates are able to modify their abortion stances to become "acceptable enough" to the Republican base.

At no time will this history be of greater relevance than in 2008, which sports perhaps the weakest field of Presidential frontrunners in regards to abortion since 1976.

Let''s take a look at the 2008 Republican field (excluding media frontrunner John McCain whose abortion stance was discussed above).

Mitt Romney

Governor Mitt Romney entered politics in 1994, challenging Massachusettes Senator Ted Kennedy.

In a televised debate with Sentor Ted Kennedy, Romney explained that "regardless of one's beliefs about choice, you would hope it would be safe and legal."

Romney went on to explain how he had come to his opinion:

"Many years ago, I had a dear, close family relative that was very close to me who passed away from an illegal abortion. It is since that time my mother and my family have been committed to the belief that we can believe as we want, but we will not force our beliefs on others on that matter. And you will not see me wavering on that.With my mom, that was a personal thing because we had a tragedy close to us -- not in our immediate family, but a young girl who actually was engaged and had an illegal abortion and died. She was a beautiful, talented young gal we all loved. And it pretty much ruined the parents -- their only daughter. You would do anything not to repeat that."

Referring again to that incident:

"I have since the time that my mom took that position when she ran in 1970 as a US Senate candidate. I believe that since Roe v. Wade has been the law for 20 years we should sustain and support it."

In his 2002 campaign for Governor, Romney explained that:

"On a personal basis, I don't favor abortion," he said. "However, as governor of the commonwealth, I will protect a woman's right to choose under the laws of the country and the commonwealth. That's the same position I've had for many years."

George Allen

George Allen entered the Virginia Governorship as "pro-choice in the first trimester and opposed to overturning Roe vs. Wade."

As recently as his 2000 Senatorial campaign, Allen has expressed his opinion that "...a woman should be allowed to have an abortion only until the point in pregnancy when there is a medical evidence of a heartbeat and brain activity." In a Project Vote Smart survey, Allen again reaffirmed that "abortion should be illegal when the fetus is viable, with or without life support" and "[abortion should be legal]...when pregnancy resulted from rape or incest, when the life of the woman is endangered, and gross fetal abnormality." Some Pro-Life advocates have noted that "the point in pregnancy when there is medical evidence of a heartbeat and brain actility" accounts for 98% of all abortions.

Since entering the Senate, Allen hasassembled a strongly Pro-Life voting record (as his rating of 0 by NARAL attests to). He has voted for the Partial Birth Abortion ban as well as "Yes" on criminal penalties for harming a fetus during the commision of a crime.

Come 2008, Senator Allen will have a minimum of a six-year Pro-Life voting record to deflect his past views.

Rudy Giuliani

Hizzoner is on record as supporting abortion. His 2008 campaign has began in earnest. His attempts to modify his abortion stance will likely soon begin as well.

Rudy's strategy for overcoming his Pro-Choice past is not yet known. Many pundits have speculated that he may take a Federalist approach to the issue (abortion is a state issue) while strongly advocating his preference for strict constructionist judges such as Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, and Alito. Others have suggested that he may reverse his opinion completely.

Regardless of his past, no one could deny Rudy's intellect. It no doubt has occurred to him that his abortion stance will need to be modified in order to obtain the Republican nomination. With an altered abortion stance, a track record of being the most accomplished conservative since Ronald Reagan, and his stratospheric public approval ratings, pundits should discount Rudy Giuliani at their own peril.

In conclusion, I hope the effect of this essay, for those who have taken the time to read it, is to show that rarely are there any ideologically pure frontrunners in a GOP nominating contest. It is useless for we as conservatives to childishly point the finger at the other's candidates and play the "my candidate is more Pro-Life than yours" game.

If this diary is followed by multiple comments explaining how Romney and Allen really didn't mean what they said. I have truly failed here.

Anyone who wins the Republican nomination will be naturally constrained by their base from any Pro-Choice leanings, especially in the post Harriet Miers world where websites maintain fantasy footballesque rankings of the most desired conservative Supreme Court nominees.

Spending, taxes, and immigration are critical issues where there is a wide divergence of opinion and track records amongst the 2008 candidates. The abortion issue will take care of itself.

It should also be noted that Condoleezza Rice has described herself as "reluctantly Pro-Choice". Further analysis is ommitted here due to her personal denials of seeking the presidency.

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Posted at 5:20pm on Jul. 12, 2006 McCain Once Again Gives the Base The Finger

By The Bij

Cross-posted at Race 4 2008.

I just for the life of me cannot understand how John Weaver can allow quotes like this to make it to print:

"I would never say this publicly, but some of these talk-show hosts, and I'm not saying they should be taken off the air; they have the right to do what they want to do; I don't think they're good for America."

So let's get this straight Senator- Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Hugh Hewitt, etc...­, the broadcasters that have actually given a voice to American conservatives for the first time since Tom Dewey and are listened to by tens of millions of people each week (the very ones you want to vote for you in the primaries in 18 months), are harming this country? Of course, the NY Times outing of the SWIFT program fails to get a mention. I wonder what percentage of GOP primary voters listen to Rush or Hannity at least once a week Senator?

"I urge my friends who complain about the influence of the religious Right, get out there and get busy. That's what they do! Now, if we believe in the Republican party of Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt, the big-tent party, then we have to get out there and show that. The fact is, some of us have sat idly by while those very active people have basically set the agenda for our party. I get attacked every day because I'm working with Ted Kennedy. How can I work with Kennedy? Because I want to get something done!"

And yet another veiled insult to the Religious Right:

"I understand the frustrations a lot of Republicans feel," McCain says. "We're not representing their hopes and dreams and aspirations. We worry about Ms. Schiavo before we worry about balancing the budget. We're going to take up this Family Marriage Amendment again. Why?

It's hard to believe that someone who has already gone through a presidential run would make the same fatal mistakes that sunk his campaign the last time. How does this rhetoric help to build bridges with Evangelicals in South Carolina; the very people that torpedoed his candidacy the last time?

The Religious Right are the very people that took the Republican Party, a party that pundits were speculating could go the way of the Whigs in 1976, to the dominant governing coalition of the country.

Senator, these are the people who you'll need to stuff your envelopes, knock on doors, man your call center. These are the dedicated footsoldiers of the Republican Party. Their support may not be enough to earn a candiate the nomination outright, but their ill will is enough to keep any candidate, even one as popular nationally as you, from the Republican nomination.

While Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani are out building bridges in the community that will determine whether or not they can be the next POTUS, John McCain continues to act as if the next presidential election will be conducted via a Rolling Stone reader's poll. Republicans will never nominate a man who is so devisive within their own party.

Team McCain may be counting on the compressed primary calendar in 2008, as well as his solid showing in many 2008 polls to carry him to the GOP nomination quickly; "Shock and Awe" if you will.

As fellow Race 4 2008 writer DaveG has stated, there are 3 tickets out of Iowa and 2 out of New Hampshire. With the potential of having as many as 10-12 primaries by Feb 5th, 2008 however, this can work both ways. Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney have an excellent chance of doing very well in New Hampshire. If the results are basically a three-way tie in NH, GOP primary voters will have extremely viable alternatives to vote for on February 5th.

If I could tell Senator McCain anything, I would tell him that I truly respect him and am profoundly grateful to the lifetime of service that he has given to the country I love. I believe that he is a good man who honestly believes that he can bridge the partisan divide and bring the "Two America's" together again.

That being said, ­Senator McCain needs to stop letting his and his political advisor John Weaver's personal hatred of Bush Co. and their base destroy them- and that is exactly what is happening once again.

Senator McCain- this is truly destroying you. You need to honestly make peace with the Religious Right to turn your Presidential dreams into reality. You need not be subservient to them, but you must respect them.

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Posted at 1:10am on Jul. 3, 2006 35% of Americans Will Not Vote for a Mormon President

By The Bij

Cross-posted at Race 4 2008.

It was only a matter of time until the first poll was conducted regarding whether Americans will vote for a Mormon presidential candidate. Here is the first of many to follow I'm sure:

Religion hasn't been an issue in American presidential politics since 1960. That may change in 2008 if Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, a Mormon, remains a leading candidate for the Republican nomination.

More than a third of registered voters -- 35 percent -- say they wouldn't vote for a Mormon for president, the latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll finds. That's considerably more than say they wouldn't vote for a Catholic, Jew or evangelical Christian. Only a Muslim gets a higher negative response.

Among all respondents, 37 percent say they wouldn't vote for a Mormon. More than two in five Democrats say they wouldn't do so, while about a third of both Republicans and independents say they wouldn't. Females are slightly more negative toward a Mormon candidate than males.

``It's a sign that this is going to be a factor in Romney's campaign,'' said Scott Rasmussen, an independent pollster and president of Rasmussen Research in Ocean Grove, New Jersey.

By comparison, 22 percent of registered voters say they wouldn't support an evangelical Christian, 14 percent wouldn't back a Jewish candidate, and 9 percent say no to a Catholic. Fifty-three percent say they wouldn't vote for a Muslim.

The anti-Mormon rating ``is a concern, but you have to remember this is all hypothetical now without even mentioning a candidate,'' said Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times' polling director.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=awU0UNxmMDDM&
refer=

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Posted at 10:11am on Jun. 26, 2006 2008 Power Rankings

By The Bij

Cross-posted at Race 4 2008.

With 18 months to go until the Iowa Caucuses, I thought it would be fun to discuss where all of the GOP 2008 candidates stand at this point in the campaign. So without further ado, here are my 2008 Power Rankings:

1. John McCain

John McCain has the slimest tightrope of any candidate to walk in the 2008 race for the Presidency.Winning the general election in 2008 is not the problem. John McCain will likely trounce any Democrat he faces in that contest.

McCain's major problem is that he is despised by a significant faction of his own party for his often contradictory views and frequent criticisms of Republican policy. It seems inconceivable that he could be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. However, there is simply no other conclusion to be drawn at this stage of the game.

The Arizona Senator consistenly leads or comes in 2nd place in polls of Republican voters regarding their preference for 2008. McCain has the most prestigious hires of all GOP candidates, snagging Mark McKinnon (Bush/Cheney 2004 Media Advisor) and Terry Nelson (Bush/Cheney 2004 Political Director). Bob Dole's 1996 finance chairman has also been added to the fold.

Money should be no problem for the Straight Talk Express either as the Arizona Maverick has been able to gain the support of key members of Bush's Ranger's, ($200,000 in fundraising) and Bush's Pioneers ($100,000 in fundraising), including powerful Texas player Tom Loeffler.

The Senator has been touring the country to raise money and support for Republican candidates in 2006: Iowa, New Hamphire, Ohio, California, Florida, and Minnesota to name a few.

All of these stops will translate into names that will owe him in 2008 if their campaigns are successful: Nussle, Blackwell, Dewine, Schwarzenegger, Crist, Pawlenty, etc... All will be on board the Straight Talk Express come 2008.

McCain also has key support from current Republican officerholders such as Trent Lott and Haley Barbour.

However, no supporters will be as critical as his South Carolina contacts: Senator Lindsey Graham and Governor Mark Sanford.

The race to the GOP nomination runs through South Carolina. In fact, no modern candidate has ever won the Republican nomination without first winning SC. The Palmetto State is considered the great conservative filter in Republican Presidential politics, signifying that a candidate will be able to connect with southern voters in general.

McCain will not let his Presidential dreams die in South Carolina this time. When it comes time for SC's primary, The Straight Talk Express will have Graham and Sanford (the state's two most popular politicians) at every whistlestop (Sanford's proclamation of 2008 independence was a little too emphatic for my tastes.)

If McCain wins in South Carolina, he's the Republican nominee for President.

Between now and then however, Senator McCain has got to stop backing policies that infuriate those he wants to vote for him in the primaries.

He has got to stop insisting on immigration reforms that many in his base equate to amnesty for criminals; he has to stop siding with Al Gore on environmental issues; he has got to stop making statements that clean government is worth trampling the First Amendment.

If he is able to walk this tightrope, he may just be President.

2. Rudy Giuliani

America's Mayor, Rudy Giuliani, is the key player in the 2008 Republican Primaries.

His decision to enter the race may be the deciding factor of whether or not the GOP primary race is a two-man contest, or a race in which anything can happen.

Currently, Hizzoner and and Senator John McCain lead nearly every poll of Republican voters in regards to 2008 Presidential preferences; and more often than not, Rudy comes in first place.

Rudy Giuliani's appeal spans all spectrums of GOP voters: Evangelicals, Women, Country Club Republicans, Security Moms, etc... all register-to-die-for approval ratings for him. In fact, Giuliani may be the most populaur political figure in America.

The main reason why Rudy entering the race changes everything comes down to numbers.

We can assume that the Mainstream Media will tirelessly trumpet the 2008 GOP primary race as "McCain vs. Rudy". They will be the two 800 lbs. gorillas in the media's eyes as soon as they are both declared candidates, leaving the rest of the field to fight for soundbite scraps from this moment on.

We can assume that as the frontrunners and as two of the most famous people in America, McCain and Rudy will garner at a minimum between 25%-30% of the primary vote each. The 25%-30% each represents the floor, not the ceiling, for both candidates vote totals.

In this best case scenario, that leaves between 50% to 40% for the rest of the main players, each of which will be highly organized, well funded, and will tear each other apart for 3rd place. Even if the 2008 primary contest is not the most intense and compact primary season ever (which it will be); how long can Romney, Allen, Gingrich, Frist, and Huckabee, etc..., hold out splitting this tiny piece of the pie amongst themselves?

If this scenario comes to pass, Rudy entering the race ensures that either himself or John McCain is the Republican nominee for President in 2008.

Of course this is all assuming that Giuliani significantly alters his stands on key social issues; namely Abortion and Gun Control (Giuliani emphatically denies that he has ever supported Gay Marriage).

The GOP does have a long history of pretending that presidential candidates have not supported abortion in the past if they, in turn, publically repudiate abortion during the campaign season. Ronald Reagan signed the most liberal abortion bill in America while Governor of California. George H.W. Bush was Pro-Choice until his 1980 presidential run. Rudy is smart enough to know that he cannot make a serious run for President in the Republican primaries as a Pro-Choice candidate.

You can bet that appointing only strict constructionist judges will be one of the first promises that Hizzoner makes in his campaign announcement speech.

Giuliani may be able to finesse his support of Gun Control by claiming that he acted as a Mayor of a City on this issue, and that those policies are not what he believes to be right for the country as a whole.

There are still some unbelievers out there concerning a Rudy Presidential campaign. They cite the amount of money that Giuliani is making in the private sector, as well as his ill-fitting social views, and of course mention his bizarre private life which began with him marrying his second cousin at a very young age and has culminated in his third marriage to Judith Nathan.

But there can be only reason why Rudy has made the time to appear before minister groups in Florida, to campaign for former Christian Coalition Director Ralph Reed in his bid for Lt. Governor of Georgia, and gone on the stump for Iowa gubernatorial candidate Jim Nussle.

Rudy 2008 is on its way; and the impact on the race for 2008 could not be more profound.

3. George Allen

George Allen is a formidable challenger to the perceived GOP Frontrunners of John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. He is regarded by most analysts as the candidate that GOP primary voters will rally around if either McCain or Rudy prove unacceptable.

He was able to snare rising star Dick Wadhams, touted as "Karl Rove's Heir Apparent" by Slate, to run his 2006 and presumed 2008 campaigns.

Allen also has the support of many party insiders who wish to keep control of the GOP out of the hands of an "unacceptably liberal" candidate like McCain or Giuliani. Rush Limbaugh singled out Allen in an interview on Fox News TV show Hannity & Colmes when asked who he believed would be a good choice for the Republican Party in 2008.

What would the 2008 Presidential campaign look like if George Allen were to win the GOP nomination?

Expect a replay of 2000 & 2004.

The smear campaigns have already begun in anticipation of his presidential campaign.

There will most certainly be a rehashing of his sister's accusations of sadistic physical abuse at the hands of her brother detailed in her 2000 book Fifth Quarter: The Scrimmage of a Football Coach's Daughter.

Of course there will be the requisite charges of racism, with vauge unsubstantiated accusations of suspensions in high school for racist graffiti; as well as the substantiated fact of his proudly displaying the Confederate Flag as a youth. Expect an unparelleled attack campaign by Democratically aligned civil rights organizations.

Allen also has a tough 2006 reelection fight against Jim Webb this November.

Allen may win in 2008 due to the Democrat's penchant for nominating Northeastern liberals. But it will not be easy.

4. Mitt Romney

In many ways, Mitt Romney is the prototypical Republican Presidential nominee: handsome, charismatic, clearly intellectually brilliant, with a lifetime of accomplishment in both the public and private sector.

No presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan is as good in front of the camera as Romney (see his C-Span Q&A interview). With his movie star good looks and easy going manner; Romney is able to charm nearly any audience.

Romney has been on the frontline of the culture wars in his tenure as Governor of Massachusettes. He campaigned on a promise of a moratorium on changes to abortion law during his time as Governor and followed through on that by vetoing a 2005 emergecy contraception bill as a violation of that moratorium.

He also did his best to prevent Gay Marriage becoming legal in Massachusettes, however a compromise bill establishing civil unions was not able to pass the heavily Democratically-controlled state legislature.

Romney's main weakness is concern over whether Americans will vote for a Mormon candidate.

Certain pundits have expressed the view that Evangelical voters will never "pull the lever" for a Mormon candidate in a Presidential race, while others have suggested that the socially conservative beliefs of the Church of Latter-Day Saints may even be a benefit with these voters.

This hurdle parallels another Massashusettes politician, John F. Kennedy, who had to address concerns of many Social Conservatives on becoming the first Catholic President. Romney will likely address it the same way as JFK did; that he is proud of his religion but it will not affect his governance as President.

It has even been suggested that Romney's religion may benefit him in a Presidential race as Mormons are generally affluent and are highly active in working/volunteering for causes they believe in.

Romney's other main weakness is that he will probably be unable to win his home state, and will likely not be able to bring many New England states with him either. However, he will in all likelyhood base his Presidential campaign out of Michigan (the state where he was born and raised) and will be able to make that state competitive.

Mitt Romney is in many ways the opposite side of the same coin that he shares with Rudy Giuliani. Both are the charismatic men of accomplishment that both parties desire in their presidential nominees. Romney comes without the personal baggage of America's Mayor. However, he is nowhere near the electoral sure-thing that Giuliani is.

5. Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich may be the candidate that Republican primary voters will turn to if the rampant discontent with the lack of fiscal responsibility shown by the Republican controlled Congress continues.

Gingrich is one of the most important Republicans to have ever lived; and he is still beloved by everyday GOP'ers. He is organized and will have the support to make noise in the 2008 primaries, especially in places like Iowa.

Newt ranks this high because he will be able to upset other candidates in the early primaries. However, he will not have the staying power to actually win the nomination and is probably still too hot to handle for the VP slot. His future may lie in the Cabinet of the next Republican President.

6. Mike Huckabee

Mike Huckabee may be the most underrated of all aspirants to the 2008 GOP nomination, as he fits the mold of who wins Presidential elections in the United States, namely a center-right governor from a southern state.

Governor Huckabee is also extremely charismatic (see his appearence on The Colbert Report) with a great story to tell regarding his personal transformation. As one liberal commentor on the leftist Daily Kos put it: "When I saw him on Colbert, I didn't know his party -- I was really concerned when I saw that he was Republican."

His problems lie in the "Invisible Primary", where it has been said that the price of admission into the 2008 race starts at $100 million. McCain, Giuliani, Romney, and Allen will have no problems raising this kind of cash. But can Huckabee?

Huckabee's 2008 chances rest on the conservative base rejecting McCain and Giuliani, Allen's personal issues and a tough 2006 derailing his campaign, and Romney's Mormonism proving to be an insurmountable hurdle. Those things coming to pass, as well as $100 million, and we could be looking at our second President from Hope.

 

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Posted at 12:04pm on May 3, 2006 Rudy Giuliani is Running for President

By The Bij

I returned home to the Twin Cities from Iowa last night where my wife and I attended the Jim Nussle fundraiser headlined by "Hizzoner".

Rudy really was in rare form. His speech was both moving and hilariously funny.

Once again he really stressed the importance of principled leadership and made a great case that Congressman Nussle is just the right man for Iowa.

Great speech. Rudy brought the house down.

It was clear to me however that this was a campaign stop for Rudy 2008. He was gracious, stopping for pictures and shaking every hand. He sat at a table amongst the crowd for dinner and laughed and smiled to everyone who came up to him.

From the Des Moines Register:

Should Giuliani run, could he get the GOP nomination?

"The only way to ever find out is by doing it," he said.

There really is a route for Rudy to capture the GOP nomination.

Declare at absolutely the last moment possible (November 2007?), openly state that you will continue Dubya's judicial philosophy of appointing only strict constructionists, and to move significantly to the right of McCain on immigration (think of how Rudy's strength in Law & Order could help him here).

For those of you that insist that Rudy is not running- Tell me if you truly believe that a man like Rudy Giuliani will be happy making speeches on the "Rubber Chicken Circuit" for the rest of his life?

And for those that believe that Rudy may eventually seek public office, but it will not be the presidency- Tell me why he would sit it out in 2006 when polls show that he can beat both Clinton and Spitzer if he ran?

There can be only one conclusion:

Rudy 2008 is on it's way my friends...

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Posted at 6:48pm on Mar. 22, 2006 Abortion Tough Issue for Hillary & '06 Dems

By The Bij

A new Zogby shows that making Abortion a central campaign issue may have negative consequences for Hillary in 2008 as well as Democratic Congressional & Senatorial candidates in 2006.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060322/law013.html?.v=51

Among the highlights:

The poll found a majority of respondents on 16 of the 20 questions took an anti-abortion position, including:

*  Parental notification laws that were recently upheld by the Supreme

       Court (55% support for girls 18 yrs. & younger; 69% for girls 16 yrs.

       old & younger; only 36% and 23% disagree respectively)

    *  Abortion ends a human life (59% agree; 29% disagree)

    *  The prohibition of federal funds for abortions abroad (69% agree with

       the prohibition; 21% disagree)

    *  Abortion because of the sex of the fetus (86% agree should be illegal;

       10% disagree should be illegal)

    *  Requiring insurance plans to cover abortions where the life of the

       mother is not endangered (56% disagree with such a requirement; 12%

       agree)

    *  When life begins (50% believe it begins at conception; 19% believe life

       begins at birth)

    *  A new federal partial-birth abortion bill (50% want to see another

       bill; 39% don't want to see another bill)

    *  Requiring counseling about a mother's options before undergoing an

       abortion (55% agree with such a counseling requirement; 37% disagree)

    *  A 24-hour waiting period (56% agree with waiting period; 37% disagree)

    *  Federal & state financing of abortions for poor women (51% disagree

       with financing; 37% disagree)

    *  Laws that charge a person who kills a pregnant woman with two murders

       (64% agree with such laws; 23% disagree)

The poll results suggest a shift in the electorate away from abortion rights over the past decade, Mr. O'Leary said. They also suggest that congressional Democrats who champion abortion rights could lose as much as 20 percent support from the electorate.

The issue may affect the 2008 presidential contest, the poll shows, as 60% to 80% percent of Hillary Clinton's support on most of the 20 abortion questions clearly comes from those voters who favor abortion rights. Conversely, 75% to 90% percent of those voters who support John McCain take a pro-life position on the questions.

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