Content by horaceox
Posted at 2:54pm on Jun. 20, 2008 FISA and the Netroots Betrayal, Continued
By horaceox
The Netroots love to brag about how the 50-state strategy and their oodles of cash brought about the Big Change of 2006, and are propelling the country toward a new progressive majority.
With that in mind, let's look at how the Freshman who captured Republican seats in 2006 (and the four special elections since then) voted:
Jason Altmire (PA-04): Yea
Michael Arcuri (NY-24): Yea
Nancy Boyda (KS-02): Yea
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Posted at 10:14am on Apr. 1, 2008 No Really. Hillary Has A Decent Shot (caution -- long post with lots of maps)
By horaceox
Promoted from the diaries. This is some detailed work here, and gives us hope that the hits will keep on coming. – Neil Stevens
It has become something of a passtime among polling geeks like myself to use Jay Cost's primary vote calculator to predict the outcome of the Democratic race. Most who have played with it have come up with some kind of scenario where Hillary leads in the popular vote.
Now, I don't mean to pat myself on the back, but a few days before Jay's calculator came out, I had my own estimate coming to this conclusion. But this calcuator provides some more concrete ways of estimating the popular vote. Let's look at this in more detail (especially given all the calls for Hillary to drop out).
Before we do a state-by-state assessment, people who followed me from myelectionanalysis.com know about my obsession with political geography. In case you didn't know, I've hand-programmed maps for every congressional election going back to 1972, with about half the states going back to their origins. I love maps and their use at displaying political data. This Hillary-Obama race gives a perfect opportunity to analyze along these lines.
Read on...
Posted in 2008 | Appalachia | Archived | Barack Obama | Democrats | Hillary Clinton | Rooting For Injuries — Comments (25) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 2:51pm on Jan. 31, 2008 I'm Voting Hillary In The Primaries (and no, I haven't been 5150'd, unlike Britney Spears)
By horaceox
It looks like by the time the first post-Super Tuesday primaries are held here in Virginia, the Republican nomination battle will be more or less wrapped up. Between the Arnold and Rudy endorsements and Huckabee and Romney splitting the conservative vote, I'm just not sure anyone other than McCain will be viable by then.
So what's a Republican to do? Take a page from Kos, of course. You will recall that in the Michigan primary, Kos urged Democrats to vote for Romney, on the theory that he would be the weakest general election candidate.
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Posted at 10:19am on Jan. 20, 2008 In a just world
By horaceox
We would never, ever, ever have to hear another smug liberal gloating about how Bush destroyed the McCain campaign in SC in 2000 by spreading rumors about McCain's "black child:"
The Clinton campaign said their supporters in the union had been the targets of threats designed to keep them from attending caucuses. Obama's camp said their backers were receiving telephone calls that made repeated reference to his full name - "Barack Hussein Obama."
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Posted at 12:13pm on Dec. 18, 2007 It is time to shift focus
By horaceox
Here at Redstate, we've dedicated almost as much energy to attacking Hillary Clinton as we've dedicated to attacking the Republican nominees. As I type, at redhot there is a piece entitled "40% of voters actively opposed to Senator Clinton."
But as I see it right now, there is at least a 50% shot that the nominee will be someone other than Senator Clinton. She is going to lose Iowa. She may come in third. That may be enough to destroy the remaining 2% lead she has in New Hampshire.
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Posted at 5:41pm on Nov. 12, 2007 Just Thinking About Her Sweet C-C-Can
By horaceox
And now for something completely different. I promise this is the only time I will ever reference WWE on Redstate, but this is an amazing example of how the MSM feels it has a license to manipulate interviews with impunity. Watch the edited version on the right. Then the edited version on the left. Notice how a categorical denial is turned into an ambiguous-to-guilty response. Truly amazing. And disgusting.
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Posted at 11:52am on Oct. 25, 2007 One Cheer For Rangel's Tax Reform
By horaceox
House Ways & Means Chairman Charlie Rangel outlined his comprehensive tax overhaul today. I haven't (and won't) read the actual bill, but the outline is as follows:
On individual taxes, the heart of his plan calls for eliminating the alternative minimum tax — which was originally created to prevent millionaires from taking too great advantage of tax breaks but now touches people with upper middle incomes and is poised to affect tens of millions of families with incomes as low as $50,000 a year.Posted in Archived — Comments (3) / Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 3:09pm on Oct. 20, 2007 So Here's The Question Pejman
By horaceox
You, like I, are a devout FiCon. This is to say nothing about your level of SoCon-ness (about which I know little), but you certainly have a deep knowledge of economic theory. More importantly, from what I've read you understand the philosophical arguments in favor of limited government. I like to think I have the same, and indeed my strong belief in the latter is why what follows isn't really that important to me in the big picture.
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Posted at 12:45am on Oct. 16, 2007 Heh
By horaceox
Okay, so this isn't really funny: The price of sin rose Monday in Venezuela where President Hugo Chavez is on a campaign to make Venezuelans cut back on drinking and smoking. . . . Alcohol is now 10 percent more expensive; cigarettes are 20 percent pricier. "Really, it's difficult to buy at these prices," she said, then joked, "They say they're going to stop eating so that they can continue drinking."
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Posted at 11:20am on Sep. 18, 2007 Don't Write Off NH Senate Yet (UPDATED)
By horaceox
Early ARG polling showing Sununu down by 20 points to Jeanne Shaheen may be off the mark. The latest Rasmussen shows him down 5 points, with similar favorables/unfavorables to the former Gov. Rasmussen is one of the two or three most accurate polling outfits out there, whereas ARG's results have tended to be outliers this cycle.
Generally, when an incumbent is below 50%, or below his challenger, it is bad news. The exception is when the challenger has as good or greater name recognition. Examples include Strickland-Allard in CO in 2002 and Murkowski-Knowles in 2004. This could be just such an example.
With other Rasmussen polls showing Rudy and Romney competitive with Hillary, it may well be that 2006 was the outlier, and that NH is swinging back to its swing state status.
Fasten your seat belts, this one ain't over yet.
UPDATE: AND BAM! Just like that, ARG comes up with a poll showing Shaheen ahead of Sununu 46%-41%. This is the same outfit that showed a 57%-29% lead for Shaheen in June. Even better news from the internals -- Shaheen has already solidified her base (only 5% of Dems are undecided) while Sununu has not (12% of Reps are undecided). Once that happens, it becomes a battle for the remaining independents.
This race is not over. Not by a long shot.