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Content by freelunch
Posted at 1:03pm on Jan. 10, 2005 Causes for optimism
By freelunch
Three weeks from now, we may know how soon we will be able to leave Iraq. While it may matter which candidates win, it will matter as much or more how many people voted.
Until I learn better, I'm using these as quick and dirty standards of success or failure:
Shi'ite turnout:
- Less than 50%, abject failure, we might as well pull out right now.
- Greater than 70%, great, solid support for the beginnings of democratic institutions and a clear sign that there will be the opportunity to have a strong Iraqi government that can take over in a year or so.
- Between 50-70%, more of the same.
Sunni turnout:
- Less than 10%, strong predictor of imminent civil war.
- More than 30%, good enough commitment to Iraq first.
- Between 10-30%, more of the same.
Kurd turnout:
- Less than 40%, strong predictor of attempted separatism.
- More than 60%, good enough commitment to Iraq first.
- Between 40-60%, more of the same.