Stories by machiavel
Posted at 2:01pm on Jan. 11, 2007 Vote.
By machiavel
Posted in Archived — Comments (8)/ Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 11:35am on Dec. 13, 2006 John McCain Censors the Internet
(202) 224-2235.
By machiavel
So, John McCain wants you to report the kiddie porn spam comments posted on your blog, or risk a fine of up to $300,000.
As a pander to what the Senator endearingly terms "the far-right base" it's probably good politics -- or at least someone in his office thought so. But, as legislation, it's very poorly crafted and shows a certain cluelessness when it comes to the medium he has repeatedly tried to regulate to death. It also dashes the hope expressed by some that McCain would represent a revival of the Goldwater-Gingrich "leave us alone" coalition that could drive a stake through the heart of Big Government Conservatism. As with CFR, as with Kyoto, as with the gun-show loophole, McCain's answer is always to regulate first, and ask questions later -- the essence of Big Government "conservatism."
Read on...
Posted in 2008 — Comments (35)/ Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 2:23pm on Dec. 11, 2006 Vote
By machiavel
Posted in 2008 — Comments (35)/ Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 7:33pm on Nov. 13, 2006 Giuliani '08?
By machiavel
This is pretty surprising. Rudy had given all indications that we he was going to take his sweet ol' time making a decision. Instead, he's out of the gate, and early:
The former mayor filed papers to create the Rudy Giuliani Presidential Exploratory Committee, Inc., establishing a panel that would allow him to raise money for a White House run and travel the country.
The four-page filing, obtained by The Associated Press, lists the purpose of the non-profit corporation "to conduct federal 'testing the waters' activity under the Federal Election Campaign Act for Rudy Giuliani."
Posted in 2008 — Comments (112)/ Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 4:45pm on Nov. 13, 2006 2008: Year of the Outsider
By machiavel
The grand narrative of 2006 was that the GOP went Washington, sometimes selling out the base and other times selling out their souls. The Architect knows it. You know it. I know it.
The Beltway arrogance went beyond just the ethics or the spending. It was the Speaker defiling the People's House by offering sanctuary for bribes on ice. It was a little known committee of the bureaucracy thinking Dubai deserved ownership of U.S. ports. It was the too-clever-by-half nomination of Harriet Miers. It was not dealing with the immigration sooner and more forcefully, and in a post-9/11 world, recognizing that while you can't do enforcement only, it's madness not to even consider enforcement first.
What all of these ideas have in common is that only in Washington could they be considered smart. Virtually everyone outside the Beltway, and some smart people inside it, saw this slow motion car wreck unfolding these many months, and we were powerless to do anything about it.
But now we can do something about it.
The delousing process has begun. And the Republican Party now has a chance to liberate itself by looking for leadership that's the polar opposite of Washington. Instinctively, this is why Mayor Giuliani and Governor Romney begin the race with significant advantages, not even counting the historical bias towards executives in Presidential races. And it's why, though Old Media doesn't know it yet, Senator McCain begins the race at a massive disadvantage. If you thought Harriet Miers, the Dubai Ports deal, immigration, the Gang of 14, and the torture debate were useful exercises in party building, wait till you get a load of John McCain, wrench-in-the-works extraordinaire. We lost one election by not listening to our base and falling prey to Washington gobbledygook. We do not need to lose another.
Read on...
Posted in 2008 — Comments (39)/ Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 7:06pm on Nov. 9, 2006 Setting the Table for '08
The First Post-Allen Straw Poll
By machiavel
Here we go folks... Now free and clear of the '06 debacle, GOP Bloggers has put up a benchmark poll of sorts for the '08 cycle. Drown your sorrows here:
Posted in 2008 — Comments (70)/ Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 8:29am on Nov. 9, 2006 51.1% - 46.5%
By machiavel
That was the Democratic margin in the House of Representatives, according to election results totaled up at USA Today.
The final polls showing tightening were right. And the exit polls were wrong -- so wrong that the national ones have in fact been pulled from the CNN site. But those that were up showed a 10-11 point margin in the House, so they were as wrong as in '04. Hopefully a correction will be forthcoming.
Obviously, this narrower-than-expected margin in the House did not prevent significant losses. For perspective, the 1994 popular vote margin was 51.5% to 45.5% Republican. The results are a mirror image of 2002, when Republicans won 49.6% to 45.0%.
Two further thoughts: In the end, gerrymandering turned out not to be as big a factor as thought. Republicans and Democrats have attained similar majorities with the same popular vote margin. And the road ahead is difficult, but not insurmountable. We have a four point hole to climb out of, not a ten or eleven point one.
Posted in 2006 — Comments (9)/ Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 2:20am on Nov. 5, 2006 ABC/WaPo: GOP Within 6 on Generic Ballot
The Wave Breaks?
By machiavel
Via TKS, we learn that the generic ballot has closed to within 6 among likely voters, 10 among registered voters (which means that GOPers are sailing past the likely voter screen, a good indicator).
Here's the ABC Washington Post poll generic ballot question. Compare/contrast with two weeks ago:
Dem Rep Other Neither Will not No
cand. cand. (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
11/4/06 LV 51 45 1 1 * 2
11/4/06 RV 53 43 1 1 * 3
Dem Rep Other Neither Will not No
cand. cand. (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
10/22/06 LV 55 41 0 1 * 3
10/22/06 RV 54 41 * 1 * 3 In 2002, the only indication we had that Republicans would have a good night came from a NYT/CBS poll released on Sunday showing the GOP pulling ahead. Unlike most Presidential elections, midterm elections tend to break and clarify at the very end.
If this is true, it would be consistent with the recent tightening we have seen in PA-SEN and MT-SEN, which means the GOP base could be coming home.
Bonus tidbit: what did the final poll before the '94 avalanche say? Dems +5%.
Posted in 2006 — Comments (38)/ Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 3:07pm on Oct. 14, 2006 October Straw Poll Analysis
By machiavel
I'm having trouble finding a catchy title for this month's analysis, because no single event seem to cause the numbers to move in a particular direction. However, America's Mayor did increase his lead in this month's blogosphere-wide poll with the help of a large influx of votes from Captain's Quarters. This months results, along with last month's for comparison:
Giuliani 28.5% (22.4%) Gingrich 21.5% (21.5%) Romney 19.9% (18.2%) Allen 8.1% (10.6%) Tancredo 5.9% ( 7.3%) McCain 3.8% ( 5.0%) Brownback 1.6% ( 2.4%) Huckabee 1.1% ( 1.2%) Frist 1.0% ( 1.1%) Hagel 0.7% ( 1.4%) Pataki 0.2% ( 0.3%)
As always the real nitty gritty is in the internals. Read on.
Posted in 2008 — Comments (16)/ Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 11:00am on Oct. 12, 2006 Cast Your Vote
2008, Again
By machiavel
The October GOP Bloggers straw poll is up. It's got some interesting 2 and 3-way matchups and a breakdown by state. Feel free to discuss your personal ballot in the comments, and who you moved to acceptable and unacceptable this month.
After this nice distraction, head on over to Rightroots to return the focus to what we need to do 27 days from now.