Stories by Adam C2
Posted at 10:22pm on Aug. 3, 2006 SEN-TN: Primary Election Results
By Adam C2
The Republican Senate primary in Tennessee is hotly contested. Center-right Chattanooga Mayor Corker is expected to win a plurality over the two more conservative nominees: Van Hilleary and Bryant. The election was today and results are starting to come in. The winner will take on moderate Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. for the chance to replace retiring Republican Senator Bill Frist next year. Newest update on top.
Update [2006-8-4 7:43:19 by Adam C]:
As of 8:32 AM EDT with 78% of precincts reporting, the results are:
Corker 186,466 48.2%
Bryant 134,713 34.8%
Van Hilleary 61,533 15.9%
That lead is practically insurmountable. Bob Corker will be the Republican nominee for the Senate for Tennessee. Hopefully the negative primary can be kept in the past and the candidates can rally behind Mayor Corker.
As of 11:03 PM EDT with 900 or so precincts out of 2432 reporting, the results are:
Corker 128,989 50.0%
Bryant 88,384 34.3%
Van Hilleary 38,194 14.8%
As of 10:31 PM EDT with 675 precincts out of 2432 reporting, the results are:
Corker 105,457 49.7%
Bryant 74,971 35.3%
Van Hilleary 30,142 14.2%
As of 10:13 PM EDT with 304 precincts out of 2432 reporting, the results are:
Corker 85,098 51.6%
Bryant 55,857 33.8%
Van Hilleary 22,725 13.8%
Posted in 2006 — Comments (10)/ Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 4:22pm on Jul. 31, 2006 VT-AL: Republican Pick-up?
By Adam C2
I am somewhat unaware of ARG's track record on polling, but today's release on VT is mildly surprising in a good way:
SEN:
Sanders (I) 56
Tarrant (R) 35
REP:
Welch (D) 41
Rainville (R) 42
GOV:
Parker (D) 36
Douglas (R) 47
The incumbent Governor, Douglas, has generally led most polls and seems to be in a good position to win re-election. When he passed on running for Senate, Rep. Sanders' (I) corronation seemed inevitable. Mr. Sanders still leads by a large margin in his race, but Mr. Tarrant polls better here than in past polls. However, it is the At Large House seat that brings the best news. Republican strategists have played up Ms. Rainville's chance in VT but this is the first poll I've seen and it shows they were right to be excited. Martha Rainville has an impressive military background including her stint as Adjutant General of the Vermont National Guard. She was the first woman to serve in this role in the 370 year history of the Vermont National Guard. I will be watching this race closer to see if she's the real deal for VT.
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Posted at 9:04pm on Jul. 22, 2006 State of the Governors - July 22, 2006
By Adam C2
The most recent SUSA 50 state Governor approval rankings were just released. 33 Governors have over 50% approval. Of the 17 who are under 50%, 8 are running for re-election this year. The endangered incumbents are:
GOVERNOR APP DIS
WI: Doyle (D) 48% 45%
TX: Perry (R) 47% 48%
IL: Blagojevich (D) 44% 51%
ME: Baldacci (D) 44% 52%
MI: Granholm (D) 43% 53%
CA: Arnold (R) 40% 57%
OR: Kulongoski (D) 39% 55%
AK: Murkowski (R) 21% 76%
Note that there are many more open seats that are filled by Republicans at present, so the overall gubernatorial picture still favors Democrats. However, 5 of the 8 endangered incumbents in this cycle are Democrats. More on these races below.
Posted in 2006 — Comments (21)/ Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 2:13am on Jul. 18, 2006 Swing Region: Midwest or Mountain West?
By Adam C2
I've written before about the Midwest as the current "swing region" in politics, especially in 2006 and 2008. The Governor races in MI, WI, MN, IL, and OH are all close and excepting IL are in states where the Presidential race was within 5 points. OpinionJournal noted the same thing with a focus on the upper midwest. For Republicans, picking up MN, WI, and MI is worth 37 electoral votes while solidifying OH is worth 20 on its own. If PA is included, the total is 78 EVs in 5 states. Let's put the midwest on hold for a minutes and talk about the Mountain West.
Ryan Sager, noted libertarian Republican, argues in his book The Elephant in the Room that the libertarian wing of the Republican Party is looking into their options as the Republicans become more Southern and less Western. A recent column lays out the basic argument that AZ, NM, CO, NV, WY, ID, UT and MT are about to become the new "swing region." This seems more probable in AZ, CO, NM, NV, and MT than the others but the numbers in the region are worth looking into. More below.
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Posted at 11:48am on Jul. 8, 2006 Partisan Politics: The Long Run
By Adam C2
Grover Norquist sat down with the American Prospect to discuss the future of Republicanism, Democratism, and the conservative movement. His insights are clear and forward thinking. I agree with almost all of his analysis. Here are a few key points, although I recommend the whole interview:
Posted in Republicans — Comments (7)/ Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 10:49pm on Jul. 5, 2006 Mexican Elections: Votes being counted
By Adam C2
Note now that I do not speak nor read Spanish well. My understanding is that vote counting in the Mexican election has begun and results can be seen here. Mr. Lopez has lead the whole evening, but the margin has fallen quickly as the PAN strongholds have reported. The most recent update was at 9:57 PM CDT (also Mexican time):
Lopez led by 1.31% over Calderon with 88.96% reporting. At the rate of narrowing over the past few updates, it is likely that the race wil be within the .2% one way or the other. Of course the rate could speed up or slow down. If anyone reads Spanish, please help translate the posts at the link above. Specifically the one at 21:59 which seems to be an announcement from the IFE.
Update [2006-7-6 10:42:13 by streiff]: Calderon wins. "With 99.56 percent of the vote counted, Felipe Calderon would win even if all the remaining votes went to Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party. He had 35.82 percent of the vote, compared with 35.37 percent for Lopez Obrador."
Update [2006-7-6 9:24:23 by streiff]: Surprise, surprise, surprise "Mexico's leftist presidential candidate refused on Thursday to accept election results that showed him losing narrowly and said he would challenge them in court."
Update [2006-7-6 8:52:10 by streiff]: Calderon still in lead: "With 99.2 percent of the vote tallies counted, Calderon had 35.77 percent of the vote, while Lopez Obrador had 35.42 percent.
Electoral officials did not immediately release vote totals, but the percentages translated into an estimated difference between the candidates of about 142,000 votes."
Update [2006-7-6 7:57:56 by streiff]: Calderon lead holds: "With 99 percent of the ballots cast, Calderon was ahead by a margin of 0.33 of a percentage point, about 130,000 ballots."
Update [2006-7-6 6:49:1 by streiff]:Calderon regains narrow lead, "With nearly 98 percent of the vote tallies recounted, Calderon had 35.62 percent of the vote, while his opponent Andres Lopez Obrador had 35.57."
Update [2006-7-6 0:38:50 by Adam C]: Calderon has gained on Lopez over the past few hours. At about 1 AM with 94.69% reporting, Lopez leads by .62%.
Lopez 35.91
Calderon 35.29
If the gap narrows at the same pace as it has for the past few hours, Calderon should win by between .1% and .2% which is around 50,000 votes out of 41 million. Also note that the "pre-count" from Sunday showed Calderon winning by 1%:
Lopez (PRD) 35.4
Calderon (PAN) 36.4
Posted in 2006 — Comments (165)/ Email this page » / Read More »
Posted at 12:50pm on Jul. 3, 2006 SEN-CT: Lieberman (I-CT) starts petition drive
By Adam C2
After feeling the heat from anti-war leftists in the Democratic primary in Connecticut, Sen. Liebermann is calling a press conference today to announce that he will be petitioning to run as an Independent. He is calling himself an "independent Democrat" and will continue to run in the Democratic primary. However, if he loses the primary this will allow him to run in the general election as an independent.
Polls show Lieberman winning a three-way race against Lamont (D) and Schlesinger (R). However, if he loses the primary, it most likely will hurt his image in the general election. It is unlikely that the Republican will emerge from this three way race, but it is more likely than any two way race.
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Posted at 10:17pm on Jul. 2, 2006 Mexican Elections: PAN wins Congress
By Adam C2
The right-of-center PAN has won a plurality in the Chamber of Deputies. The far left PRD came in second and the left-of-center old ruling party fell to third place. The PRI seems to continue a slide into irrelevency as their main claim to electoral success was holding the levers of power. If nothing else, this election solidifies the end of one-party dominance in Mexico which is a positive development in its own right.
PAN 35
PRD 31
PRI 28
As for the Presidency, Mr. Calderon of the PAN and Mr. Lopez of the PRD are in a dead heat. The exit polls were too close to call. Results are trickling in here. The latest results with about 7% reporting (as of 9:30 Central/Mexican Time):
Calderon (PAN) 40
Lopez (PRD) 35
Madrazo (PRI) 19
We'll see if this election takes all night.
Update [2006-7-2 22:27:49 by Adam C]: As of 10:45 with 24% reporting:
Calderon (PAN) 38.7
Lopez (PRD) 35.6
Madrazo (PRI) 19.0
Update [2006-7-3 9:30:36 by Adam C]: As of 9:45 AM with 96% reporting:
Calderon (PAN) 36.4
Lopez (PRD) 35.4
Madrazo (PRI) 21.5
It seems the margin has narrowed mainly by Madrazo winning a greater share of the later reporting districts. Calderon has a 1% lead which translates to just under 400,000 votes with approximately 2,000,000 votes left to count. Since this is a three way race, it will be very difficult for Mr. Lopez to overcome that margin. If Mr. Madrazo continues receiving 20%, then Mr. Lopez would need over 62% of the remaining votes while Mr. Calderon only needs 38%.
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Posted at 1:57am on Jul. 2, 2006 SEN-MD: Mfume Ahead of Cardin in D Primary
By Adam C2
I noted back in April that the Democratic primary in Maryland was not cake walk for unexciting Congressman Cardin. A new Washington Post poll of likely voters (51D/29R/14I) conducted June 19-25 found:
Cardin (D) 26
Mfume (D) 33
Others (D) 11
Don't Know 30
Steele (R) 46
Mfume (R) 46
Steele (R) 40
Cardin (R) 52
These poll numbers reinforce the same message as most of the past polls. Lt. Gov. Steele is a strong candidate in a Democratic state and a win by Mfume is good for Steele. As I stated a few months ago:
First, a win by Mr. Mfume would be great news for Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Steele. Mr. Mfume is a polarizing candidate who will have a hard time winning over swing voters. Even if Mr. Mfume does not win the primary outright, a close race could also be helpful. If the race is close, both Mr. Cardin and Mr. Mfume will have to spend money and attack one another in a hope of pulling out a victory. All of this softens up the eventual candidate. Furthermore, if a close loss makes black voters feel abandoned by a state party that is roughly 50/50 racially and has never nominated a black Democrat to the positions of GOV, LT GOV, or SEN that can only help Mr. Steele make inroads into the community.
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Posted at 10:57pm on Jun. 28, 2006 SEN-WA: The Art of Persuasion
By Adam C2
I mentioned last week that Washington state is now in the top tier of Senate races. Since then, I've done some digging on Mr. McGavick and become very impressed with the man. On the tech side, he has his own campaign blog and a superb website. More importantly, he is following in the footsteps of Sen. Gorton and Mr. Rossi and their successful brand of Washingtonian Republicanism.
Mr. McGavick is a businessman with a savvy for selling his product. He helped get Sen. Gorton elected and served as his cheif of staff. Later he led SafeCo Insurance as their CEO. Now he is in the business of selling himself. And taking a look at a recent review by a left-of-center Washington journalist, he is succeeding:
McGavick's appealing to Democrats by finding common ground on things they and Republicans can easily agree on — such as the partisanship issue. He openly blames Republicans as well as Democrats for the problems, which has given him credibility with that particular group of Democrats.
He already has them interested and agreeing on small points. Next, he'll start to close them on slightly larger, but still basically non-controversial issues — like health care costs. He openly asks, who knows more about this particular topic than the CEO of a major insurance company? Once he has them agreeing again, the issues will get incrementally larger until he has either turned them off — and they go back to Cantwell — or subverted (closed) them. It's Salesmanship 101 — and McGavick is a Master Salesman.
More below.