Redstate

What urban realignment could look like

By Soren Dayton Posted in Archived | Barack Obama | Democrats | Hillary Clinton | Pennsylvania — Comments (16) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

I am going to be a little deliberately provocative and speculative. Barack Obama puts urban white ethnic voters in play in a way that we may not have seen in our lifetime, indeed in our parents' lifetimes in many places.

Look at two maps of Philadelphia. The first one is the results of yesterday's primary. The second one is a map of the city that marks the density of African-American vote. I urge you to click on the results map and look at the ward-by-ward results. The key observation is that Obama is winning 80-20 or more in black wards. And Clinton is winning 80-20 in white wards.

What strikes me is that Barack Obama has been unable to break out of his African-American and university support into the broader white-working class. (note that Temple and the University of Pennsylvania are on the South side of Philly)

The areas that Clinton won have either Republican or organizations on the ground (primarily Northeast Philly) or have demonstrated willingness to support Republicans (the South Philly wards, overlapping with retiring State Sen. Vince Fumo's (D) district in which Rick Santorum had performed well prior to 2006)

We can convert these. Read on.

First, some demographics. Both NE and S Philly are highly Catholic. Hillary won Catholics 70-30. In our primary, John McCain won with a coalition that included substantial Catholic turnout.

Second, these areas have voted for Republicans in the past. Northeast Philly has a Republican machine that delivers State Representatives (including the last two Speakers of the PA House of Representatives) against Democrats. Local Republican precinct captains have existing relationships with both the local Democratic organization and the local Democratic voters. These are small precincts with 500-600 voters. The local Republican precinct captains know the voters. They know who they can talk to. And they have 6 months to have those discussions. I can assure you that every "bitter/cling" comment, every Bill Ayers like associate, or every Jeremiah Wright comment will get communicated over beer or coffee or donuts or something.

Similarly, in South Philly, you have lots of traditionalist Catholics. They voted for Santorum.

Third, there is resentment at the out-of-touchness of rich liberals, which Obama looks like. Mythical New York City community organizer Michael Gecan wrote in the Village Voice:

What I heard and sensed in some of these anti-war "leaders" was what many hear and sense in the Democratic Party "leaders" to this day—a contempt for the common woman and man, a distaste for all the flawed institutions that conserve traditions or beliefs or cultural patterns (family, congregation, party, military), and a profound faith in their own intelligence and savvy and expertise.

He also points out that some Republicans have figured out how to organize this crowd:

But another cadre—the geeky, awkward, young Republican crowd—was truly horrified by the emergence of this upstart elite. ... The driven chancellor of his powerful diocese, Rove has taught his team how to mix more easily and work more smoothly with the Bushes of Yale and the Frists of Princeton. ... Rove is systematically going after the last bastions of Democratic institutional strength—courting the Jewish community, the trial lawyers, and parts of organized labor.

Of course, union members, like Gecan himself, and Jews are voters who Obama is particularly weak with. Just after the 2004 election Gecan wrote in the Washington Post:

It was as if they had never been there. And in a way, they never were. These two tendencies -- celebrity worship and quick-hit canvassing -- betray the central problem at the heart of the Democratic Party's political culture. The party has no time or patience for the complex work needed to listen to Americans, to understand their range of views and positions, and to engage them on their deepest interests. Even worse, many in the hierarchy of the Democratic Party have contempt for ordinary Americans -- for their red faces and moderate churches and mixed, often moderate, views.

Think back to what I said about Northeast Philly. We have an existing Republican machine that knows how to talk to people. In South Philly, perhaps a vet in his 60s who is inspired by McCain's service and goes to church and drinks at the bar with people can talk to people. And he can cooperate with the church ladies.

Fourth, there is a real sense that people don't connect to Obama. Back to the exit polls. One-third of voters yesterday, including about half of Clinton's voters do not believe that "Is Obama In Touch With People Like You".

And fifth race will indeed matter. Back to those exits. 13% of white voters said that race mattered to their vote. 75% of those people voted for Clinton. Let me repeat that with slightly different words. 10% of Pennsylvania Democrats publicly tied their support for Clinton to Barack Obama's race. We all suspect that the numbers are higher than that. Roger Simon has a very interesting piece at The Politico about this.

It looks like this might be replicable in other parts of the state. Watching MSNBC we see Chuck Todd and Scarborough repeating Eddy Rendell's pride at winning Lackawanna County, which contains Scranton, pro-life Bob Casey's home town. Clinton won Scranton 72-26. Or pro-life, veteran, Hillary Clinton-endorsing Jack Murtha's Washington County 71-29. It's not a mistake that there are either a lot of vets there or that Murtha is pro-life. He's not the only one, and McCain can win these. (BTW, Washington County is the home county of PA GOP's Chairman Gleason, who would love to deliver it)

And it could be replicable in Ohio. Or New Jersey. Or Gecan's Brooklyn. Or Massachusetts. Or Rhode Island. Or working class Connecticut. The parts that Joe Lieberman won. Or Macomb County in Michigan.

We may be looking at the realignment that puts the Northeast and the Rust Belt back in play.

Also, and many readers know that I was no fan of Mitt Romney's. But can you imagine a guy with $400m winning in Northeast Philly and connecting with these voters in the way that McCain might?