A New Bogeyman
By streiff Posted in War — Comments (2) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
As the tensions with Iran increase, the news media has discovered a new bogeyman: the Quds Forces of the Pasdaran.
The Quds Force, variously described as “shadowy” and “mysterious” (and presumably “clean” and “articulate” in the bargain) is believed to the prime mover behind Iranian meddling in Iran and Lebanon. The media, fed by sources within the intelligence community, are beginning to construct a 10-ft tall, bionic, Cray-brained enemy against which we are powerless.
What is most interesting and significant about the Quds Force is what is not being reported.
Read on.
Prior to our humiliation in the early days of World War II in the Pacific the prevailing media myth was of the invincibility of American arms. This myth, fed by no little amount of racism, simply pooh-poohed the idea that a warrior people like the Japanese could ever be a real threat to a US military force. If the myth was not dead by V-J Day it was certainly throttled on the Suwon-Cochiwon road in June 1950.
From the Korean War onwards the dominant media meme has portrayed the American soldier or marine as a hapless and incompetent fighter who is only able to prevail by virtue of technological prowess. [Why this mythos is so attractive is obvious. It reinforces the worldview of the weenie-armed pencilnecks in newsrooms everywhere that their perceived intellect makes them superior to the young infantryman carrying 120-lbs of equipment and settling the fate of nations at bayonet point.]
Sadly, the US intelligence community (unofficial motto: fat asses, wear glasses) feeds into this nonsense. Every infantryman or tanker who served during the Cold War as bombarded day in and day out with the assessment of the Red Army. Not only did they outnumber us, we were told, they were tougher, smarter, and better than we were. Those who’d actually seen the Red Army up close were a lot less than surprised by its abject failure in Grozny.
The same pap was, and continues to be, fed to us on the North Korean army.
During the Gulf War we were warned about the fierce and “battle hardened” Iraqi Army. The Afghans, we were repeatedly told, had vanquished everyone who had set foot in that country. Al Qaeda, naturlich were invincible because of the superiority of the “Fourth Generation Warfare” (more hooey, itself) they practiced. Baghdad in 2003 was predicted to cause 40,000 US casualties if we were silly enough to attack it.
So now we are at the beginning of the Quds Force myth.
But, to coin a phrase, there is a dog that is not barking. From the New York Times:
Like so much else about the Iranian state, the Quds Force, which conducts overseas operations for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, remains remarkably mysterious even to those who closely study the country.
[…]
Questions about what exactly Quds Force officers have done and whether they acted at the direction of the Iranian leadership have taken on particular urgency as the Bush administration sends more troops to damp the violence in Baghdad. But the competing power centers inside the Iranian government, and the intense secrecy that obscures decision making, make answers elusive.
[…]
But the Quds Force is cloaked in secrecy inside Iran and is the subject of considerable guesswork from scholars in the United States, who in interviews this week offered estimates of its size ranging from 3,000 to 50,000 men. The true number, along with details of the strength and budget of the entire Revolutionary Guard, is hidden even from the Iranian Parliament, said Mr. Milani, according to legislators he has spoken with.
Some specialists even question whether the Quds Force exists as a formal unit clearly delineated from the rest of the Revolutionary Guard.
Iran has been our primary intelligence target in southwest Asia since 1979. They did, after all, sack our embassy and keep 63 of our countrymen hostage for 444 days. We did land troops in Iran to try to rescue them. We fought a brief war with them in 1987-88. They’ve been implicated in the Pan Am 103 bombing and the bombing of Khobat Towers.
It isn’t like their behavior is news to anyone.
Yet just take a moment to ponder what we don’t know about the Iranian force arrayed against us in Iraq. We don’t know how many there are. We don’t know who they report to. We don’t know their funding. We really don’t even know if they really exist.
If you ever wondered why Donald Rumsfeld commissioned Douglas Feith to reexamine the findings of the intelligence community, just think about it for a moment. The answer will come to you.
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A New Bogeyman 2 Comments (0 topical, 2 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
"Scholars" and "Journalists" may not know much about the "mysterious" Quds force, but then they don't have access to classified information. The US intelligence community knows a great deal about the Quds force, right down to organization charts, names, locations, all of it.
While the analytical capability and conclusion-drawing proficiency of the US intel community is questionable, the full weight of our collection capability is no less impressive than our overall military prowess (except in HUMINT, where we suck). When that power is focused on a target, the volume of information we can vacuum up and process is mind-blowing.
Your point on bogeymen is well-taken. Both the Soviets and the North Koreans were/are grossly overrated.
But don't underestimate the IRGC-QF either. They are a dangerous adversary, precisely because they operate in a niche that the US has historically been less than adept at combatting. The QF specializes in indirect operations. Rather than attacking us directly, they prefer to develop and employ surrogate forces, generally paramilitary and quasi-terrorist forces to do their bidding. This can present the US with a particular conundrum because it avoids our strengths in high intensity maneuver warfare. Instead, they try to draw us into nasty guerilla warfare in and among the local population, which negates our firepower and takes advantage of our reluctance to inflict collateral damage and kill innocents.
Hizbollah is the prototypical Quds Force surrogate. Look how much trouble they caused Israel this past summer in Lebanon. While the Israelis prevailed, the public was shocked at how much trouble they had overcoming resistance from a bunch of dirt farmers. The resulting furor cost the Army Chief of Staff his job.
The resilience of the US soldier has never been in question. The resilience of public opinion and the US body politic is another question entirely, and the Iranians operate on a much different time horizon than we do. Fighting irregular warfare for 3 years to trigger the non-binding resolutions is not an unappealing concept to them.
"If all men were just, there would be no need of valor."
- Agesilaus
It does not completely bother me when our enemies capabilities are overestimated other than it may cause undue, wasted emphasis when planning. What bothers me is the liberal use of negative adjectives to describe our forces.
Why does this bunk always find its way from the intelligence community to a gaggle of ridiculous geek journalists that treats it as Gospel without any mitigating information?
Frankly, I don’t think we are walking around Iraq going “ooh grab that guy, he is Quds”. We are grabbing anyone that is a bad guy and if we can classify him as Iranian or whatever fine, otherwise who cares?
Iran has stood largely unopposed against any meaningful army, so the myth grows about their invincibility. However, one only needs to look at the Iran-Iraq war or recent Zahedan bombings to know that Iran is very vulnerable.
History shows the American military man is very motivated and prone to overwhelming resolve. Anything less is a picture painted by Vietnam era journalistic crackpots and their next generation liege. Who do they think continues to sign up for this all volunteer military and extend their service? Gee that doesn’t fit with their fallacious vision of a disgruntled military bemoaning constant deployment and vexed by this war’s objectives meme, does it?
"Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori"
Contributor to The Minority Report