Ben Cardin Is Still Toast
By Erick Posted in 2006 — Comments (17) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
In case you missed it, Ben Cardin went to Prince George County, Maryland to try to rally black voters after losing massive support from black elected officials in PGC. The event started off well, but then descended into another reminder that Ben Cardin is still toast.
Mr. Cardin appeared with Prince George's County Executive Jack B. Johnson and about 30 other lawmakers in Hyattsville, aiming to keep a diminishing lead in the polls.
Mr. Johnson noted that he supported Mr. Cardin's opponent in the primary -- Kweisi Mfume, past president of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People. . . .
But the rally turned sour later. State Sen. Nathaniel Exum, Prince George's Democrat, berated Mr. Cardin for excluding him and other local delegates from speaking or being mentioned.
"You do the same [stuff] over and over again, just ignore us," Mr. Exum yelled at Mr. Cardin after the rally, which was held in Mr. Exum's district.
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Ben Cardin Is Still Toast 17 Comments (0 topical, 17 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Agreed. I think Steele has a chance, but its going to take a lot of hard GOTV in Maryland to get him over the top.
Any Red-staters from from Maryland out there who can weigh in on the mood of the GOP in Maryland?
Optimistic and getting more so. Bob Ehrlich is surging, now going neck and neck with O'Malley, despite being 10 points back according to some polls just a few weeks ago. Ehrlich got the Washington Post endorsement (very surprised).
Ehrlich's job approval is 54% and getting better. Steele is polling along the same lines where Ehrlich is getting good numbers in the counties near Baltimore. In the rural western counties, Steele is up by several points.
Among white voters, Steele is ahead, according to the Baltimore Sun's polling and if he can pull 25% or better among blacks, Steele can win in this pivotal race.
De Opresso Liber
If Steel can get (and seems to be getting) a significant portion of the black vote in the more densly populated (eastern and southeastern) counties - the remainder of (far less urban) Maryland will take care of itself. I am from Frederick County - west and a little north of Baltimore).
There have been some minor rumblings that we so-called redneck Neanderthals from the Maryland bush would balk at a black man as our Senator. THAT is (in my view) pure leftiist propaganda, and indicative of the deep underlying well of barely suppressed, simmering Democrat Jim Crowism.
Transferrence of that particularly odious cultural trait from the Democrats to the Republicans (in the words of the famous Sir Harry Flashman) "ain't in it".
My view? Make certain Steel is at the head of the line when the new Republican Senate majority leader starts assigning office space. I want my guy to be treated well and be nice, and content in his new digs.
GB
somewhere where he has visibility. I wonder if they could swing him a Judiciary Committee seat. That's hard to come by for sure, but it would get him some face time whenever the next SCOTUS nomination comes up.
thenh Chafee's seat on the JC will need to be filled. I can't think of a better replacement.
Just as every cop is a criminal, and all the sinners saints - Sympathy for the Democrats
Steele's getting significant support from the black community. Here's something that I posted on Steele's potential within the black community:
This year, the Maryland Democratic Party commissioned a statewide survey of black voters which showed that 44 percent were open to a Steele candidacy.
Steele isn't getting 44% of the black vote but it's over 20%, which means that Cardin is toast.
that broke out the percentages of white and black votes Steele needed to win. Coulda sworn the poster said he needed 35% of the black vote. Note: I have no clue, just looking for some clarification.
_______________________________
If "pro" is the opposite of "con", what is the opposite of "progress"?
are both well positioned to win in a state where, based strictly on the registration numbers, they shouldn't even have a chance.
The legislature has screwed up so bad they've been overturned on several important legislative issues (WalMart, early voting, voiding the public utilities commission), even though all the judges are Democrat cronies. So attitudinally here in MD, Dems are facing what the GOP is facing across the rest of country, only it may be even more intense.
There are two largish concentrations of black voters in MD, the first is in Prince Georges, the second is Baltimore. I think the two split the bulk of that population about 50:50, which is why the Prince Georges endorsements from black Democrats the other day were so big: 50% of 50% gets you the base 25% I've seen mentioned elsewhere as being competitive, a bit more than that and Steele is over the top. Throw in the chance to elect the first black senator from MD, and Steele might not only be pulling 25%, but close to the 44% who were open to his candidacy. On a different count, the Dems talk about racist Republicans depressing the turnout for Steele, but I don't buy it. Personally, I hope he gets even more white votes than than Sarbanes did so we can start moving past all this race talk we go through every election.
I think one of the signs of the strength of Steele's campaign, is that he isn't running negative ads. Cardin is. He's even picking on Steele's dog.
Bottom line, I suspect GOP across the state aren't merely optimistic, they are euphoric about this historic chance.
I would get my teehinie down there this morning and seek these guys counsel, very publicly. All he needs to do is pay attention and listen. That's something Maryland Democrats don't know how to do.
"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill
"Democratic year"?
Isn't THAT a bit... well... premature?
It is not 20% as someone stated above- I have no idea where you got that from. It is more along the lines of needing 33-34% of the black vote in Maryland. He is close, Jack Kemp and Mitt Romney will be joining us this weekend in the phone banks. Will it be enough? I doubt it- but we need to try the best we can. Everyone needs to vote a straight GOP ticket down the line wherever you live!
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Cross Into the Blue
But I think that Ehrlich AND Steele will win big in MD!
I think that this is a situation where one hand feeds the other. We need a poll that asks Steele voters who they will choose for Gov?
I think that I will get to watch a Blue State Get Red on Election Day.
The Ehrlich campaign was endorsed by the Washington POST this week.
I think that the Cardin snub of the NAACP debate confirmed to MD exactly what Wayne Curry said! He basically said; What do we have to lose, the Dems have screwed us for years, lets give change a chance!
Someone also said and I agree that this message will go through the black community in MD "like a rocket" (which I believe to say "before Election Day"). Steele needs 30% of the black vote in MD to win. I think he does it handily and catapults Gov. Robert Ehrlich to victory over liberal Mayor Martin O'Malley for Governor.
I guess you have to ask a Democrat Politician for the answer. Both Casey and Cardin seem to think they know.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
clearly Steele has momentum and there is room for optimism. To say that Cardin, who still leads in every public poll and is running in a Democratic year in Democratic state, is "toast" is, I think, a bit premature.
Brad Smith
Professor of Law
Capital University Law School
Capital University website
Center for Competitive Politics website