Fred Thompson must enter the race by... when?
(AP says they're yawning in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.)
By Mark Kilmer Posted in 2008 — Comments (51) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
At RedState.com, spring is in the air, complete with the standard buzzing of the bees and, this year, the Fred Thompson buzz. The Associated Press, however, warns us break through the insulation surrounding our psyches. They don't love Fred in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. No, there's no contempt for Thompson; rather, it seems a slightly self-important yawn:
[F]or now, at least, GOP activists in each of the first three states to hold primary contests next year say voters there are focusing candidates who already have made their intentions clear. They say Thompson buzz is barely audible.
"I just don't see him catching fire at this point right now," said Al Simpson, chairman of the Lancaster County GOP in South Carolina.
What's more, these activists say, Republicans know very little about Thompson.
"Some people know he's done something but they don't know what," said John Fluit Jr., the Republican Party head in Lyon County, Iowa.
And, they say, voters don't know his politics.
"Does he meet the Republican positions on things? I have no clue," said Dick Barry, a state representative from Merrimack, N.H. "I don't know where he stands."
This might be a distraction, but it also might be important to Thompson '08.
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In late 2007, being an unknown candidate could be a problem, and it will be for some nominee-wannabes, but if Fred Thompson wishes to make himself known, he will become known.
A. C. Kleinheider of WKRN-TV/NEWS 2 in Nashville, on his Volunteer Voters blog, sees this story as evidence that Fred Thompson might need "to make a decision sooner rather than later as to whether he wants to jump into the race for President." He outlines a strategy for Thompson which includes no real campaign in Iowa and a focus on New Hampshire, as a win there would damage next-door Mitt Romney and New Hampshire's '00 champ, John McCain. Also, Kleinheider holds, Thompson could commit plenty of resources to South Carolina,
He also links this Newsmax piece which reads an awful lot like the AP piece and concludes:
"I just don't see him catching fire at this point right now," said Al Simpson, chairman of the Lancaster County GOP in South Carolina.
The conventional wisdom does say that Thompson has to win one of the first three to be truly viable, but there is another way.
In February, Quinn Hilly at The American Spectator blog theorized that Jeb Bush could enter the race late and fly past the current field. I agreed in this RedState.com post, though Jeb was not on my own mind. I added to Hillyer's speculation on Jeb:
I could also see Fred Thompson filling the Jeb role in the hypothetical scenario outlined.
Here's Hillyer's scenario:
If, say, John McCain wins California and Arizona, and maybe another, but Mitt Romney follows a New Hampshire win with Feb. 5 wins in Michigan, Utah, and Colorado, and another one or two, while Rudy Giuliani takes Florida, New Jersey, Illinois and Tennessee, and Mike Huckabee wins his home state of Arkansas and Sam Brownback carries home-state Kansas...well, then, who exactly is the front-runner?
Rather than providing unstoppable momentum to any one candidate, in other words, the widespread voting on Feb. 5 could serve to keep all three "major" candidates and even a couple of minor ones alive. Nobody could claim a mandate, the vitriol would continue to grow, and the dissatisfaction already being voiced by conservatives might take on pandemic proportions.
As I've said, he wrote it for Jeb, but it can be applied also to Thompson. Its essence is that if the front-runners battle to split decisions and continue to generate little general enthusiasm, Fred Thompson could be the White Knight.
With all the various sundry Super Tuesdays next year, the front three, while still heavy on symbolism, probably won't have the same impact as they have in the past. But a big win in New Hampshire, if Thompson wants to be President and does not want to take the risk of wait-and-see which the White Knight strategy requires, would be big for Thompson.
As Kleinheider notes, this is going to require some serious retail politicking. I imagine he has the handshake to do it, but it will probably be a new frontier from Thompson.
For now, the first three States in the nominating process yawn and contemplate Rudy, McCain, Romney, and the others. Heck, it's what we're all doing. We're all waiting to be excited.
Your party is calling, Senator.
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Fred Thompson must enter the race by... when? 51 Comments (0 topical, 51 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
You can believe that McCain is also sure of it. Notice how he is now positioning himself further right every day? Fred will have the same effect on other 'Pubs soon.
Harry Reid on Iraq: “I say we’ve lost. Let’s bring our boys home in, oh, say 18 months. In the meantime, no more funding for them.”
Large donors and supporters are going to start choosing individual candidates and pledging their support. Money does matter in the primaries, and Thompson could be left behind.
I know a lot of people are frustrated with how early the primary has started, but it's a reality candidates need to accept. The next Presidential election will most likely exceed $1 billion, that kind of money takes a lot of time to raise.
Whatever prior commitments Thompson may have, do any of them take precedence over running for President of the United States of America?
I'm sure he could squeeze some fundraisers in with his current schedule over the next few months. Just announcing his intention to run would have a lot of money pouring in his campaign. Conservatives are really hungry for his candidacy, and many aren't thrilled with the current Big 3.
"Back in the thirties we were told we must collectivize the nation because the people were so poor. Now we are told we must collectivize the nation because the people are so rich. "
William F. Buckley, Jr.
I disagree with the MSM and some of the "few" others here, Fred
would be much better off letting the build-up continue for another few months. I would suggest about August or so before committing...
Formally known as Deagle... "Golf is a way of life..."
How many of these county chairs and 'activists' that the AP talked to are already committed to other campaigns. If you're a Romney or McCain supporter of course you're gonna tell the press that you don't think Thompson can jump in and win at this point.
A lot of these people - local party officials in early primary states - have been courted for years by Romney, McCain, and Giuliani. And I'm guessing they are probably a bit high on themselves because of it. The idea that a candidate who didn't spend all of 2006 buying them dinners and inviting them to personal meetings to get their support would catch fire without all that damages their egos.
If Fred Thompson jumps in this summer and wins, he will prove that all that stuff that the other candidates have done two and three years ahead of the election was worthless. And the types of people quoted by the AP in that article have a vested interest in stopping that from happening.
This was exactly my thought! Alas, I'm too lazy to google and find the answer.
Oz
Signature disclaimer: I'm not currently paid by any campaign, but I am available. Current preferences for President: 1) F.Thompson; 2) Romney; 3) McCain; 4) Gingrich; Guiliani removed 04/03/07
The only buzz I hear is Brownback buzz. Fred D. Thompson is only exciting to those with stars in their eyes. He's on a hit tv show, he occasionally fills in on a radio show. Whoop-de-doo!
He probably wants to at least finish out the current season of Law and Order before he leaps in as the GOP's savior. Big deal.
We already have celebrity candidates who aren't actually conservative (Giuliani, Romney, McCain) who are currently attracting groupies for no clearly defined reason.
At least Fred has some conservative cred. So I welcome him if he decides to take the plunge. Personally, I prefer a proven conservative like Sam Brownback. Big surprise. ;-)
Blogs 4 Brownback is documenting the latest Brownback buzz!
Democrats on Iraq: "We don't want to win. We just want to quit."
My SUVs park in the shade of AlGore's carbon big toeprint.
Blogs 4 Brownback is documenting the latest Brownback buzz!
what are you? 12?
___________________________________
The CIA has better politicians than it has spies - Fred Thompson
A random walk through my head at Indiscriminate Tastes
Blogs 4 Brownback is documenting the latest Brownback buzz!
Maybe Brownback has the monopoly on the buzz at the middle school. I guess that would explain why I haven't been hearing any of it.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Blogs 4 Brownback is documenting the latest Brownback buzz!
Could you be more specific? Hehe...probably not. The "conservative" candidates you speak of are questionable, ie, Guiliani (not conservative), Romney, questionable (can you say flip flop), McCain (only on terror - remember the MSM, anti-first amendment). I would agree that his credentials are still up in the air, but better than those you mentioned...
Formally known as Deagle... "Golf is a way of life..."
Yeah, I just don't understand why these guys are the "frontrunners." They don't represent me. They don't hold my values. I guess I'm old school. I want the GOP nominee to be conservative. Silly me!
Blogs 4 Brownback is documenting the latest Brownback buzz!
One, he (Brownback) will never be known widely enough to be selected, Duncan would be a more likely candidate, but Thompson is the most likely and actually seems to be the more conservative candidate which you should support.
Front-runners are media driven and are not the conservative's selection, so I would not worry about that.
Formally known as Deagle... "Golf is a way of life..."
Forget the issues. We need a dynamo! We need an actor. Take 5. I prefer a conservative to a phoney. What do you want?
Blogs 4 Brownback is documenting the latest Brownback buzz!
If Al Gore had been just a little more animated, he might have been President. Some of us have likened Gore to a wooden object, too. So far, no furniture of any kind has been elected President.
Harry Reid on Iraq: “I say we’ve lost. Let’s bring our boys home in, oh, say 18 months. In the meantime, no more funding for them.”
It’s going to be interesting to see if any of the candidates drop out or begin stepping back. While it would be surprising for any such thing to happen before even the first primaries, I’m not so sure it won’t. If that would happen, and Thompson has entered the race, could he absorb that support? I’m also curious to see how McCain handles Thompson entering the race. Finally, Thompson can probably loose Iowa or New Hampshire, think Bush in 2000, but his campaign will have to accelerate the work for the southern primaries and the Midwest states.
It has amazed me this campaign season, to watch all the endorsements already being made to candidates. I would think one would want to wait until, at least, the beginning of Fall to put my name behind someone.
He won Iowa because McCain didn't even campaign there. Also after his loss in NH, Bush came back to win SC which effectively ended the campaign for McCain.
Thompson also has a movie coming out on HBO at the end of May so he won't officially enter until after that. I don't know if the media rules apply for candidates who just have exploratory commitees, but I assume that his shows wouldn't air if he had one otherwise he would have one so he could start raising money.
I think the reason he will wait is because contractually he is committed to NBC and HBO. If he tried to get out of those contracts he would suffer big financial penalties and may even be subject to big lawsuits. Sweeps are coming, this is when NBC makes its money.
By the time he is in he will have missed early debates and almost the entire 2Q of fundraising. This means that he might be 40 to 50 million behind the top candidates. He is also way behind in organization which takes time and money to develop. I
I think he will get a bump with his announcement, but not more than 5% or so. (It's not as if when pollsters list the candidates they tell people he hasn't announced yet.) People won't know anymore about him after he announces just because. They already have the option of choosing him in every poll and only 1 in 10 do. If he doesn't do well at Ames I don't think he will be able to pass the big three, just pull even. If it comes down to a tight 4-way race, whoever wins Iowa, NH and SC will get enough momentum to pass the other 3 on Feb 5th.
If sweeps week is more important than running for President of the most powerful nation in the world, forget about it. This is obscene to me. Pick one or the other. Who the hell cares about NBC's revenue when we're fighting against the Islamofascist menace?
Where are our priorities?
Blogs 4 Brownback is documenting the latest Brownback buzz!
He doesn't have any choice in the matter. I think it is ridiculous that we have to avoid showing anything that stars an actor while he is running for office, but that's apparently the way it is. There were the same kind of issues with Arnold's run, but at least he didn't have new TV episodes in the can at the time.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
why, oh why would we want a man who keeps his promises (contracts)??????
7 months before the first primary is PLENTY of time to be in the race.
___________________________________
The CIA has better politicians than it has spies - Fred Thompson
A random walk through my head at Indiscriminate Tastes
I am really, really getting sick of this earlier primary thing. There's no reason why getting into the primary in June or July should be too late.
Frankly, I wish Redstate would take a month off from the primary. I'm already tired and we're 19 months from the general.
Back to reality, considering Mitt, McCain and Giuliani all have 10 mil or less in the bank, Thompson isn't too far behind money wise.
I guess infrastructure is a concern, but for crying out loud, there are probably more than three people in this country capable of guiding a Republican to the White House.
Take your time, Fred. People will still be hungry for a true conservative in June.
He has plenty of time to become a candidate. I am also tired of the early entrys...mercy, can we just wait at least a year before the election!
All these early entries will be bankrupt before the election season begins...and rightfully so... Geez, I'm tired of the whole bunch already.
Formally known as Deagle... "Golf is a way of life..."
than I am of the early committers. If they'd leave their options open and listen to the positions of each of the candidates, I'd be much happier.
But I agree that Fred can wait to get in the campaign and not damage his prospects. With all the mau-mauing going on now, it will make him look even more, well, presidential.
Mr Underhill has it right: those who were quoted have probably committed to a candidate, and aren't going to generate buzz for Thompson. So the article is suspect, at the very least, especially if the AP have any qualms about Thompson.
Jeb Bush isn't going to run. I have great affection and loyalty for W (did anyone notice a recent SCOTUS decision on partial birth murder/abortion? Thank Roberts and Alito, and most of all, GWB), but it will take a strange planetary alignment for Jeb to get elected president. I would probably be as fond of Jeb as W, but it ain't gonna happen in 2008. Brownback has to rise above his 2-3% to be viable. Won't happen.
McCain is slipping because Republicans have other choices. When he was the heir apparent, we kinda sucked it up and said ok. Giuliani took the wind out of McCain's sails because Republicans don't like McCain. Period.
Giuliani will have problems with Republicans everywhere. Other than GWOT, what makes him a Republican? Abortion, gun control, environment, taxes, what gives him traction with Republicans? Prediction: he starts sliding before things get started.
Romney? I have not a clue, but Thompson is better known than Romney. And has better Republican credentials. None of these three generate much buzz.
Thompson generated buzz. We like him. The other three? Sure, we'll support any of them if they get the nomination, but there isn't much passion.
And there in a single sentence you summed up why the republicans lost in 2006, and why none of the three "frontrunners" should get the nod for 08. If we are to win the next election, there must be passion for the candidate. Reagan inspired that sort of passion, even from people who hated him. And there were a lot more of them than will admit to it today.
Yeah, run Fred run, if it doesn't interfere with sweeps week. Sheesh. So we have to breathlessly await our conservative savior? No thanks!
Blogs 4 Brownback is documenting the latest Brownback buzz!
Aren't we, Psych?
Look, clearly you're for Brownback. I respect that. I like him a lot, too, and I mean that. But what are his numbers? Not all that good.
What exactly is the point of the sweeps week attack on Thompson? So you don't like him. Just say so. And conservative savior? Jeez, oh pete! How about we just have someone who is conservative, a loyal Republican, articulate (if that isn't a bad word now), and recognizable.]? Put Fred in a televised debate with Brownback, and he sweeps the floor with him, even if it's not sweeps week. Thompson is consistent, conservative, and likable. That's not a bad start.
So, yeah. Run, Fred, Run!!!
Ron Paul is the one who has the support in NH. He raised the second largest amount of funds in just ONE visit.
Forget FRED. He is a member of the CFR so he's the same old same old as the rest.
Good for Ron Paul. He seems like a great guy. I hope he gets some attention. He deserves it.
Blogs 4 Brownback is documenting the latest Brownback buzz!
Ron is my rep and I supported him for years. He lost my support forever when he joined the democrat surrender machine. Take some time to read Ron's floor speech on the Iraq War Resolution here.
Ron Paul will never be elected and and I believe this run of his is simply a way to finance his next re-election campaign.
If the folks in NH like him, I sure wish they'd adopt him!
You can tell AP that no one here takes them seriously....we are yawning at their incomplete and biased reports.
As long as the nominee isn't McCain or Guliani.
I am already firmly committed to not voting for either of those fake canidates.
Regardless of who wins the GOP nomination, what about Rob Portman for VP?
We need Ohio to win... bottom line. He could well deliver the state to us.
He's attractive, well spoken, conservative, popular in southern Ohio, and has an impressive resume.
Local loyalties counted for a lot more when the political parties were divided more sectionally than in policy.
We've shedded the old Civil War alignment though, so I don't see that working anymore, as Al Gore found out in 2000 and John Edwards found out in 2004.
Run like Reagan!
and still win. There are enough people keeping their powder dry until he says he will run or not. There are also enough people who will quickly change sides as soon as he gets in.
There is also going to be alot of candidates who will get out either before the primaries or when they start to lose and FDT will pick up all of their supporters.
If he gets in he wins.
"I wish to have no connection with any ship that does not sail fast; for I intend to go in harm's way."
John Paul Jones (letter to M. Le Ray de Chaumont,16 Nov.1778)
I agree he can win because there is still enough money out there for him to catch up, but let's be realistic he has to catch up. His national numbers are flat and still relatively low. I am guessing that after the first debates but before Thompson announces Romney will pass Thompson in the RCP average. He is only .6% behind right now.
If he decides to not take Ames seriously he has no chance at winning. Once Thompson jumps in he will get a bounce to maybe 20% but after that he will have to maintain his position. The MSM will definitely begin to attack him as will the other candidates. Right doesn't have the organization to combat these attacks and to put out a positive message.
Winning in Iowa (or at least doing better than expected) will show that he is serious about the race. Right now his reputation is a lazy campaigner and his rhetoric indicates he believes he doesn't need to make up for lost time. If he continues to be overconfident the way most of his supporters are, Mitt or McCain will make sure he regrets it.
it will knock out (or way down) some of the other top tier candidates.
"I wish to have no connection with any ship that does not sail fast; for I intend to go in harm's way."
John Paul Jones (letter to M. Le Ray de Chaumont,16 Nov.1778)
By the way, isn't Brownback pro-amnesty?
"I wish to have no connection with any ship that does not sail fast; for I intend to go in harm's way."
John Paul Jones (letter to M. Le Ray de Chaumont,16 Nov.1778)
Many are not even ready to begin thinking politics this early. I think those making all the noise now are mostly singing to political junkies. Fred Thompson should get in when mainstreet America is ready to pay attention to those who aspire to POTUS in 2008. The only other people who are pushing things this early is the MSM. Wonder why that is.... $$$$$$$$.
Fred don't run, I don't vote.
While I like the idea of a small state being the starting line for Presidential contenders, having New Hampshire and Iowa as MUST WIN states has left everybody else feeling left out. So other states started moving their primaries up to try to compete with New Hampshire and Iowa. And they in turn moved their events up, and now we have candidates starting to run and trying to intimidate other candidates with their money reserves two years before the national election.
I think its time to revisit our primary system and determine who gets to hold primaries first by a weighted lottery system. A small state gets to go first, and larger states have to wait a bit before they can hold their primaries, but exact positions are determined by lottery during the previous election.
yeah, "we have no one with any buzz"! Except of course for that guy who has nearly 100% name recognition after 9/11. What was his name again? Oh yeah, Rudy something..
Please don't betray your ignorance in front of real political pros on this site..
United States Air Force
http://airforcepundit.blogspot.com
Fred Thompson is hurting himself by not officially getting into the GOP Presidential race right now. Fred doesn't only truly need the right messages to say as a Presidential candidate, but he just as equally also truly needs enough money resources to be a viable candidate for the Presidency. The longer Fred delays getting into the Presidential race, the more difficult it will truly be for Fred to raise the needed amount of money that he will have to raise if he really is going to be a viable Presidential candidate. The mainstream media is already attacking Fred on his present lack of money and on his present lack of people working on his behalf.
FDT is committed by contract thru May; about six more weeks. If FDT enters shortly thereafter I truly believe he will make up ground quick; a political tsunami.
What we're seeing now are those opposed to Thompson already taking aim at him because they know what he is going to do to the other Rep. candidates and the he is the Dems worst nightmare. Hillary is especially vulnerable to FDT's character and appeal IMO.
Well see....