Hotline Poll shows GOP rising
Confirmation of Gallup poll from last week
By Adam C Posted in Archived — Comments (6) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
I'll admit that I was skeptical of the recent Gallup poll showing a generic ballot with Rs down 2. I don't put much faith in generic polls for the reasons documented by Michael Barone and Jay Cost, notably that the generics have shown Ds winning for most of the post-1994 era despite them losing the entire time. IIRC, the polls generally overstate actual D voting by 10 percentage points. That being said, shifts in these polls can reflect overall generall excitement among partisan voters especially if likely voters are polled instead of "adults."
Today, Hotline released a new poll showing Rs tied with Ds on a generic ballot of likely voters and down 7 among registered voters. Alone this may be an outlier. Together with the Gallup poll, this may show the overall climate shifting.
This month's Diageo/Hotline poll should serve as a splash of cold water on "Speaker" Pelosi and "Majority Leader" Reid.
-- Unlike many major nat'l polls, our poll consistently surveys regis. voters. And this month, we are dividing our research between regis. voters and likely voters.
-- In our RV sample, Dems are in a strong position. But cull down to "likely voters," suddenly the GOP has a fighting chance. In the generic ballot, our LV sample has the two parties even. Among all RVs, Dems are up 7.
-- Also of note, Bush's job rating rises 3 points among LVs. (The party I.D. makeup of our LV sample is 4 points more GOP than our RV sample). Which brings us to exactly why handicapping midterms are so difficult. A 3 point shift in party I.D. could tip 10 House races and 2 Senate seats.
-- The C.W. believes the GOP's turnout operation is superior. It's the one thing nat'l Dem strategists (translation: anti-Dea-NC folks) fear the most about this cycle. The overall enviro heavily favors Dems but what if the Dems never communicate with the casual angry Dem-leaning indie and convince them to vote?
I'll still wait for one more confirmation of the narrowing before accepting it. But two polls showing a race in the margin of error when generic sampling tends to overstate D performance by ten points might give Rs a reason to believe HeavyM's contention that we can actually win in 2006."
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Hotline Poll shows GOP rising 6 Comments (0 topical, 6 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
and optimism oftentimes becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we get our heads screwed on right, 2006 is ours for the taking.
BTW, thanks for the link.
There is no theory of evolution, just a list of creatures Chuck Norris has allowed to live.
Go check out Posts 28, 29, and 30 on Strieff's Blog re: the Alaska Governor's race and you'll see why I was a bit circumspect on some things. I apologize for the brief threadjack.
In Vino Veritas
the election hasn't actually begun yet in most parts of the country. Neither party has initiated an ad blitz and the public is not yet paying attention. Discontent over many issues is rife and the Republicans are incumbent and should be held responsible for many failings. The Democrats, however, are... the Democrats, as always, and I think they are totally capable of kicking victory away. I'd imagine that the recent evidence of continuing Islamist attempts to attack us is getting the public's attention and that will inevitably drive voters away from the Democrats.
With all the dire news around Iran (and the eerie comparisons to the rise of Hitler and the Nazis), Iran is are becoming the single issue this election. Iran and oil prices are tied together. Iraq and Iran are tied together. Israel-Hezbollah and Iran are tied together. And Islamic terrorism and Iran are tied together. All these single issues point to Iran. And Kerry's approach, proxied by Europe, is failing miserably. This is why the GOP will actually win this election cycle, so long as Iran keeps it up. Al-Qaeda was 2004, Iran is 2006.