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Is the worm finally starting to turn in Venezuela?

By AcademicElephant Posted in Archived — Comments (3) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Somewhat to my surprise, the United Nations demonstrated last week that it retains at least one shred of self respect and denied Venezuela a seat on the Security Council. Voting on the issue will recommence tomorrow, but Venezuela has not lead in a single round; it has trailed rival Guatemala by 20-30 votes throughout the process. Guatemala may not be able to gather the requisite two-thirds majority to gain the seat, and an alternative nation such as Chile may well wind up the winner, but one thing looks pretty certain: it won't be Venezuela.

Read on...

So what went wrong for Hugo Chavez, the "president" of Venezuela who has been lobbying heavily for the seat for at least a year? It seems that Mr. Chavez misjudged the level of anti-Americanism, even at the UN, and overplayed his hand with his "Devil" speech in September. The assembled delegates may have laughed at his jokes and applauded his fiery rhetoric, but when it came down to deciding who gets the two-year term on the Security Council, the majority of them concluded that Mr. Chavez may be entertaining, but he's not exactly Security Council material. He has is supporters, to be sure, but not nearly enough of them to seriously challenge Guatemala. I never thought I would find myself saying such a thing, but good for the UN. Mr. Chavez is learning that not everyone hates the US, and not all votes can be bought. These could be valuable lessons for him, and ones he might want to take pretty seriously.

The disappointment at the United Nations may have some immediate repercussions for Mr. Chavez on the home front. As Ricardo Sucre points out in his analysis of the the presidential election in Venezuela, Mr. Chavez is running almost exclusively on his plan to make his country into a superpower. Of course, he doesn't have much of a choice since his domestic programs have been a pretty unalloyed disaster. So he's attempting to inflame paranoid nationalism in voters by proposing an aggressive Venezuela that will challenge the imperial United States on the international stage. Mr. Chavez has been setting up his platform for some time, and has spent a large percentage of Venezuela's recent petro-windfall on subsidized fuel for potential allies and a significant military expansion, not to mention on lavish attention-getting trips abroad for himself. The Security Council seat, which would provide Mr. Chavez with a perch from which he could directly confront the US, was to be a centerpiece of his campaign. Had he succeeded in last-week's balloting, he could now point to his prize and proclaim Venezuela's triumph. He could put his vote at the service of his new allies Iran and North Korea in exchange for some of the nuclear technology that he would enable them to develop. And as an added bonus, he could cause no end of trouble for the United States.

But all these grand plans have come to naught. Instead of taking a victory lap this week, Mr. Chavez was forced to claim a "moral" victory which, as we all know, is not as satisfying as actually winning. He has cancelled a series of public appearances, leaving the spotlight to opposition candidate Manuel Rosales, who has used it to point out Mr. Chavez' "embarassing" loss. Mr. Sucre acknowledges Mr. Chavez' still-formidable lead in the race, but also points out that if this trend continues, he may be hard-pressed to stage a credible victory on December 3rd, especially if independent polls show Mr. Rosales surging.

Mr. Chavez has demonstrated a cockroach-like ability to survive setbacks in the past, and he remains entrenched and powerful. But his re-election in December is not a foregone conclusion. The "Ten Million Votes" he envisioned just months ago are dwindling quickly, and I have to wonder if the worm is finally starting to turn in Venezuela?