It's Super Tuesday. Here's an open thread.
By Erick Posted in Archived — Comments (123) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
For your reference here are the states and delegates up for grabs today in the GOP:
AL: 47
AK: 28
AZ: 52*
AR: 34
CA: 172
CO: 46#
CT: 29*
DE: 18*
GA: 71
IL: 70
MA: 43
MN: 40
MO: 58
MT: 25*#
NJ: 52*
NY: 101*
ND: 26
OK: 41
TN: 54
UT: 35*
WV: 30#
* - Winner-take-all.
# - Caucus or convention
Indiana, New Mexico, and Kansas also have Democratic Presidential contests today.
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It's Super Tuesday. Here's an open thread. 123 Comments (0 topical, 123 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I thought the media had already declared our candidate to be McCain. Oh that's right - they haven't decided for the Dems yet. My bad.
I see some numbers that don't look right - a few states off by 1.
You didn't mention WV at all. And you seem to have too many delegates up for grabs today in NY (not all of them are pledged based on today's primary).
Just voted in the NJ primary..Fred is still on the ticket, I thought about a protest vote, but decided not too.
The next booth over a 50 something gentleman asked the election worker, "if i'm registered democrat, do I have to vote democrat?" The election worker answered yes... he said "Oh were one of those states" He flipped a coin with a smile on is face and walked into the booth.
I'm assuming he'll be a vote for McCain in November...unfortunately I probably will be too.
Moderation in temper is always a virtue; but moderation in principle is always a vice. ~Thomas Paine
He'll pick up some delegates here in IL-go Mitt go!
"You're with me? To the Death. For Narnia!!!!!!"(and Mitt)
I just sent in my absentee ballot. Total of 3 votes for Mitt from our house today.
Go, Mitt, go!
(I'm in California for those of you keeping score at home.)
adn "Uncommitted" on the ballot here in MO. I was really tempted to fill in that circle. Alas, in the end I gave my vote to Mitt. I just couldn't do it for McCain...too many issues.
I'm hoping after today we can settle down and start looking forward to the general election...or anything other than the primaries for a little while. No, I don't think this will be settled today, but we should have a pretty good idea what is going on after today.
Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn't mean politics won't take an interest in you.
-- Pericles (430 B.C.)
"Free Government Requires Active Citizens"
www.missouriyr.com - Missouri Federation of Young Republicans
I was proud to be one of the first 5 or 10 people this morning in my precinct. Felt good.
Vote for the ulti-Mitt conservative. Romney '08!
DISCLAIMER: I am loosly affiliated as a volunteer for the Mitt Romney campaign. All viewpoints expressed are my own, not the campaign's.
Of more interest to me is the Democrat Super Tuesday.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
This lefty is sick of Kossian acrimony over "the evil queen" vs.
"the candidate that spits rainbows". Need some civility. Need some *grammar*.
And for what it's worth, I think that Romney is going to be the story tomorrow. The media has already decided that Clinton and Obama will go to a draw, and there are unlikely to be any surprises there. But I don't think they're ready for Romney to take California and a few other unexpected states. That's going to surprise people.
"In my youth, it was said that what was too silly to be said may be sung. In modern economics it may be put into mathematics." -- Ronald Coase
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
... and I know the rules! I aspire to 'flyerhawk'-dom.
"In my youth, it was said that what was too silly to be said may be sung. In modern economics it may be put into mathematics." -- Ronald Coase
With 173 delegates, if this holds or if Romney extends this lead, it will neturlize NY and NJ. If this is wide spread and not concentrated, Romney could be in for a good night.
Romney continued to lead, however, in delegate-rich California, with 40% support in that state, to McCain’s 33%.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1446
Lets also remember, Zogby hit Florida on the nose.
Actually Zogby said that Romney's support seems to be coming heavily from the southern part of the state. So, that says that it is not clear how the CDs will break out and how the delegates will fall. NY/NJ/CT account for as many delegates as the entire state of CA, and I don't think even the Romney folks are saying that Romney will win every single delegate there.
Romney will need to spin the caucuses to his advantage - they're worth no committed delegates as of today, only the prospect of delegates down the road, assuming that his people are sent on to the next levels of caucuses/conventions. He's going to need to continue to work on those states to ensure that supporters don't change their minds before they bind their national convention delegates.
Umm, you do realize that California is not winner-takes-all like New York is, don't you?
Even if Romney wins by 10, it won't even come close to getting him enough delegates to neutralize NY.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
Bad weather in Illinois, Missiori, Arkansas, and Tennesse. This could effect the result in these states.
Yep, bad weather in Oklahoma today too. I haven't voted yet, because I'm at home with my two two-year-olds but I will be voting for McCain this evening, along with my husband.
Go McCain!
Al; CA; CO; GA; IL; MA; MN; MO; ND; OK; TN; UT!
Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now.
-White Goodman
That's funny. He's down significantly in AL. He's running 3rd in MO. There's no indication he leads in IL (last poll had him down 20). And even the most recent poll in OK shows him 3rd (and trailing Huck by about 9). TN is closer the most recent poll has him 3rd there as well.
Romney is going to have some issues. It looks like he's in position to win a few, but then have a whole bundle of third place finishes. McCain meanwhile, will win a bunch and probably take second in the rest.
Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now.
-White Goodman
While you are dreaming, do you mind bringing Ronald Reagan back from the dead, changing the Constitution to allow 3rd terms, and letting him run again?
Because that's roughly the same level of reality as your prediction.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
I'd like that - we get to resurrect Reagan and of course the Dems would jump at the chance to put Bubba up again. That would be a match-up worth watching.
What? I thought Romney was running for Reagan's 3rd term.
Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now.
-White Goodman
Some of his supporters seem dumb enough to think so, surprisingly.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
Don't question whether or not their take on the issues is correct-just call them dumb and stupid.
Then again, considering you're going for McCain, it's not surprising.
Vote for the ulti-Mitt conservative. Romney '08!
DISCLAIMER: I am loosly affiliated as a volunteer for the Mitt Romney campaign. All viewpoints expressed are my own, not the campaign's.
I didn't insult anybody specifically. I insulted anybody who thinks Romney is running for Reagan's third term. You are stupid if you think that.
You are also stupid if you think McCain is running for Reagan's third term, although I think a McCain Presidency would be closer to another Reagan term then Romney.
But frankly, if you think ANYBODY is running for Reagan's third term, you are stupid.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
Some of his supporters seem dumb enough to think so, surprisingly.
If you had put it like you just did, I wouldn't have said anything. I would wholeheartedly agree. But you ascribed a trait that is insulting and can't be reasonably proven to not voters in general, but Romney's voters in particular. That's why I was upset.
And, FWIW, I would have to disagree on the McCain being closer than Reagan. Reagan never actively took on his party and took glee in it at the same time.
Vote for the ulti-Mitt conservative. Romney '08!
DISCLAIMER: I am loosly affiliated as a volunteer for the Mitt Romney campaign. All viewpoints expressed are my own, not the campaign's.
Does not have any Democrat contest today. The primary is in May.
....if the predictions of the Romney folk are right and we come out of today with McCain holding say a 200 delegate edge over Romney with Huckabee holding 200-300 delegates himself, what exactly have we accomplished?
Romney will have some momentum, but so will McCain. There is "institutional" support for McCain going forward, and Romney will pick up some help. But these result give neither a clear path to the nomination.
So unless someone is going to tell me that Romney will cut a deal with Huckabee (and that Huckabee would be willing to accept said deal), I still don't see how anything other than an outright delegate lead by the end of the night gets Romney the nomination.
Someone will have to get out of this race or we will be in worse shape than the Democrats. They have 2 candidates, and someone will probably wrap it up before the convention (now that Edwards is out, all delegates are going to be divided between 2 people - much more likely to get to a majority in that case than with our 3). We are looking at nobody wrapping it up, and we don't even have "superdelegates" that can tip the scales.
Anyone forecasting a deal between Romney & Huck is not living on this planet, sorry Reldim ;).
If there is any deal with Huckabee, it's between himself and John McCain. I have an internal bet that there's been a "gentleman's agreement" between them since at least November on that score.
If it meant the VP spot, IMHO. He is after all, a Politician. Its also likely that Romney could end up being McCain's VP.
Huck could never be McCain's VP, that is a recipe for disaster.
I have a low opinion of Huck after what he did to win Iowa and derail the Mitt-machine nationwide.
But I do not think that he would trade his delegates for a VP spot.
There are so many assumptions involved here, I don't even want to address it.
I'm just trying to figure out what will happen to this election if the 12th imam ever comes out of hiding and starts caucusing with Ahmadinejad.
You don't think that Huck would trade his delegates for a VP slot?
Are you nuts?
Of course he would. At least from McCain. Maybe not Mitt, but he'd do it for McCain. (honestly, a VP nod from Mitt is a quick ride to the private sector)
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
1.) McCain might have a thirst for power, but his own personal pride would keep him from offering such a spot.
2.) McCain knows that Romney wouldn't accept it. Mitt isn't a second-fiddle guy.
McCain's choices are basically Sanford, Pawlenty, Rounds, Huckabee (unless he's smart), or possibly Palin (popular governor, and a woman to deflect the historic ticket on the other side).
People have mentioned Barbour, but he has a history which would make him a bad choice-unfortunate, since I think he's one of the best governors going. If he chose Huckabee, he would alienate every conservative that is already against him, and I'm pretty certain that his turnout in the general election would resemble that of student council president at a large high school.
I think it would be Pawlenty or Rounds. He would be smart to take Palin, but she's unfortunately from Alaska, so she doesn't bring in a region to the ticket.
We won't have to worry about that, though. McCain still has quite a fight on his hands.
Vote for the ulti-Mitt conservative. Romney '08!
DISCLAIMER: I am loosly affiliated as a volunteer for the Mitt Romney campaign. All viewpoints expressed are my own, not the campaign's.
I am a conservative, born-again Christian, and I cannot stand Huckabee.
His is not a serious candidate, and he has shown that he is all about playing poltics. To imply Hannity was bought among other things? Come on... do we need this?
Eat you chicken skin, shut up, go home, and hope your pal McCain throws you a bone IF he gets the nod. It was fun, but it's over.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
“It must not be supposed that folly is as powerful as truth,
just because it can, if it likes, shout louder and longer than truth.”
--Augustine
The problem is...Huckabee has more than likely made a deal with McCain. Huckabee said he is not dropping out and will pull votes away from Romney and give McCain the nomination. Anyone who votes for Huckabee is really just voting for McCain.
Huckabee has won ONLY one state, finished 4th in Florida and DOES NOT HAVE A SHOT AT THE MONINATION. He should drop out and make this a 2 man race!
WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!
Nothing personal but as you may guess, I fundamentally disagree with your analysis.
If Huckabee drops out, McCain will benefit far more than Romney. Despite the rhetoric, which I am beginning to believe is intentionally misleading on the part of many Romney supporters who should know better, it is Romney who is benefiting from Huckabee remaining in the race, not McCain.
Consider two things:
1) Literally every exit poll and preference poll shows that John McCain is the preferred second choice of Huckabee supporters over Mitt Romney by about 20% or more. Ergo, if those Hukabee supporters did not have Mike Huckabee to vote for, more of them would vote for John McCain and he would be winning by even bigger margins.
2) Mike Huckabee has been called a "pro-life liberal" (by Fred Thompson, a sentiment that I somewhat agree with, by the way) and a populist. Truth be known, for better and for worst, his positions line up better with McCain than with Romney (including in abortion, where McCain is much better on pro-life than Romney). If that is the case, then why would Huckabee supporters graviate more to the candidiate they agree less with?
In fact, I think it is foolish and duplicitous for Rush Limbaugh and others to castigate Huckabee on the one hand as not being conservative (a few even agreeing -- correctly, IMHO, that he is definitely more liberal than McCain) and then to argue that Huckabee is spliting the conservative vote with Romney against McCain. That argument simply does not make sense.
First, we still have almost have of the states to go after today. So, if Romney is down less than 300, he can still go on.
I didn't say he couldn't continue, I said, basically, I don't see how he makes up the deficit given the states that are left. Especially if Huckabee isn't out.
And thanks to those who proved my point - which was that unless Huckabee and Romney come to an agreement there can be no consolidated "ABM" drive. And that hurts Romney since basically, that's all he has left - he tried to sell a message and failed and now is relying on being people's third or fourth choice just to stop their least preferred candidate (McCain) from winning.
Also, I disagree that Huck voters are predominantly Romney voters. Primarily, it would seem that if Romney were the natural choice of Huck people there would be no Huckabee - the Huckabee people were looking for an alternatives to both Giuliani (the national frontrunner early) and Romney (the early leader in IA nad NH). McCain was a non-factor during the Huckabee rise. Couple that with the fact that Huck has that whole populism this going, and I don't think you get even a 67-33 split of those voters for Romney. If they are even Romney voters at all, you're probably looking more 50-50, and really only because of an ABM movement. That doesn't help a campaign that needs to make up some deficits.
But the largest delegate states, save TX will have gone. OH and PA are the only other sizeable states and PA doesn't go until late April (and has a deranged loophole system that could create massive confusion in terms of figuring out who "won" in terms of delegates), and I don't think we will still have this uncertainty at that point.
TX doesn't help Romney unless Huckabee drops out - it's proportional unless someone takes a majority, and I don't see that as likely with 3 people still in the race. So Romney can close the gap, but will still split delegates. OH's CD/state WTA hybrid also will make it difficult to sweep.
That leaves Romney trying to catch up over the course of a lot of little states, many of which are not WTA and so will probably only create small delegate margins.
So, where do the delegates come from?
There are a lot of states (including my homestate of Texas) that don't vote today. We will still have our say and who knows? It might actually mean something.
Jim Geraghty guestimates a 200 vote McCain lead. Not quite over yet w/ about a thousand delegates left on the table.
"I believe we must adjourn this meeting to some other place." - The last recorded words of Adam Smith.
It's a bleak day here from one end of the state to the other, cold and windy and rainy, but no snow.
You can see all the primary state weather forecasts at Weather.com.
For quick reference, could you put an asterix next to the states that are Winner-Take-All (WTA)?
"If all men were just, there would be no need of valor."
- Agesilaus
WTA statewide - winner statewide gets all delegates:
MO
NY (only 87 of the 101)
NJ
CT
DE
AZ
UT
MT (state convention of party officials)
WV (the 18 delegates that they are picking today by convention)
WTA hybrid (winner in each CD gets delegates as well as statewide winner).
CA
IL
GA
OK
Proportional, either statewide or CD/state hybrid
MA
TN (unless someone gets over 2/3)
AR
ND (caucus - unless someone gets 2/3 and then WTA)
AL (unless someone gets 50%, then WTA by CD/state hybrid)
Caucuses that do not bind delegates to convention today:
AK
MN
CO
Erick,
Could you denote on your list which states are winner take all vs. proportioned delegates?
I no big fan of Mitt, but McCain just smells bad everytime I turn his way. Further, in the General, he will make Bob Dole look like a good idea. The MSM is going to turn on him and rip him to shreds. This will surprise the old fool and he will be like a guy coming home to find a note from his wife and she, the dog and bank account gone. All he'll have left is Adam C telling him how good he was doing in the polls back in January and that all the nerds were betting on him in the "Futures Market" LOL
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
At 6 AM on the nose I was ready to vote. There was one woman in front of me, we were the first two of the day, and both of our names could not be found on the list. Both of us are registered Republicans.
Now, I'm not one for conspiracies or one to cry political shenanigans at the drop of a hat, but that smelled funny to me.
So, we filled out a small form, and a paper ballot. But still... it seemed odd...
...Keep an eye out for news of voting tomfoolery in Westchester County, NY. ...Just in case.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
“It must not be supposed that folly is as powerful as truth,
just because it can, if it likes, shout louder and longer than truth.”
--Augustine
Not perfect, but I had no problems - and I recently had to change my address due to a move.
And "tomfoolery" will not be much of an issue unless there is some claim that the voters targeted are known supporters of one side or the other. This isn't a general election where "losing" Republicans is good for Democrats. Everyone voting is a Republican and all the people on the ballot are Republicans. It would not be possible to target such "tomfoolery" to effect outcomes in a deliberate way.
More than likely this is the result of an outdated voting system and the general stupidity of NY election officials. If the polls for NY are even off by 10 points, McCain still wins handily (poll yesterday was showing something like a 30-point margin for McCain here). And Westchester has become one of those "moderate" places that should be good for McCain this time around.
Whether a primary or a general the voting system ought to be without wrenches. What... did they not know there would be a vote months, years, ago?
I am not past putting shenanigans and/or tomfoolery on the table as an explaination, although I am not saying it was. (In fact, I doubt it was.) The whole point is that in 2008 is it too much to ask to have a complete list of voters in each district?
Good grief.
By the way... go Romney!
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“It must not be supposed that folly is as powerful as truth,
just because it can, if it likes, shout louder and longer than truth.”
--Augustine
just dark and unpleasant and foggy. I will be voting for Romney later today on the NY side.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
For a ticker tape parade, and McCain dominating the tri state area.
Neither of which might be your cup of tea, but I'm pretty pumped.
"Livin' the dream. I'm going to Disney World." Super Bowl XLII MVP, Elisha Nelson Manning
Patriots are 18 - 1. 18 wins and 1 GIANT loss!!
Mitt may like the Patriots, but he has my vote here in NY!
GO BIG BLUE!
If the following is true, out of California you could see Romney picking up 117 to McCains 53.
I’ve become more optimistic in the past 24-48 hours about Romney's chances in California.
Multiple data sources, including both public and internal polling, now show a clear trend for Mitt, and possibly a very sharp one. Both national and local conservative talk radio bashing McCain is have an impact on California GOP primary voters, who tend to be very conservative. I think I’m comfortable saying now that he could win about 2/3 of the districts in California, which would also give him the bonus delegates and the narrative of winning the state. I didn’t think this was likely at all 24-48 hours ago.
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTg0ZDg1ZTEzZTI2ZGRmMzdiN...
we have a chance to beat back this moderate-establishment assault. Maybe today will be the day people stand up and fight.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Stand up and fight? The problem there is your standard bearer leaves much to be desired. I honestly ask people - if it were Romney and virtually any other Republican officeholder as the final 2, would you really be supporting Romney? If we were down to Romney and Hunter - would we be going with Romney (I bet some people would based on, irony of ironies, an "electability" rationale)? Romney against Jeff Sessions? Romney against Coburn? Romney against Sanford? Romney against Pawlenty? My guess is Mitt loses every one of those matchups, which means people don't really buy into the "I'm a true, down the line conservative and always have been" line he's selling.
In the last week I haven't gotten the impression there is much pro-Romney sentiment out there - it's all anti-McCain. And hey, that's fine - strategic voting is real and perfectly legitimate. But I still think there needs to be more to this than anti-McCain, lest the "rally" you are trying to put together fall apart as soon as the nomination is secured.
McCain wins key endorsement on their Front Page... Who is this key to the GOP primary victory? None other than ex-NY moderate-liberal governor George Pataki who everyone already has forgotten. Are you serious? Something we've learned to expect with the pro-"maverick" media.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
At least in central Missouri, the weather could be a factor; it is cold and rainy (just had a downpour), and it is suppose to snow this afternoon. I already went to the polls to vote, so I did my civic duty today, but I know a lot of people don't vote until after work.
With Missouri being close, the weather may play a part in who wins Missouri. Maybe a judge in St. Louis will order the polling places to stay open late because of the bad weather - heh heh.
Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn't mean politics won't take an interest in you.
-- Pericles (430 B.C.)
"Free Government Requires Active Citizens"
www.missouriyr.com - Missouri Federation of Young Republicans
I voted this morning. I moved recently, so I don't know whether the amount of people voting was large or small for my polling place. I voted for McCain (Fred was my first choice), as did my husband, who used to be a Dem but voted for Bush last election and seems to have joined the GOP team for good. National security was the deciding issue for both of us.
The presidential election was the only thing on the GOP ballot. Not sure about the Dem ballot.
The only signs outside my polling place were for Hillary. There were a couple of people there trying to get people to sign a petition, but I didn't stop to see what it was for, and I don't know whether they were affiliated with any campaign.
Here's praying that Romney picks up enough delegates today to stay in the race. I'll be voting for him Saturday (VA) regardless. Just can't bring myself to vote McCain. ... Heaven knows what I'll do in November should he win the nomination. I suppose I'll just have to plug my nose and vote for the Arizona temper tantrum.
Why does Georgia have more delegates than Illinois, when Illinois has a larger population?
Thanks,
IJ
That went for Bush in 2004, so they are awarded more delegates because they vote Republican. I believe delegates is 1/2 size,and 1/2 half whether they are blue or red.
"You're with me? To the Death. For Narnia!!!!!!"(and Mitt)
Lots of good info and explanations here. Basically, you start with population and adjust for how well Rs do. If you have an R GOV, R SENs, R majority in the state legislature, and R majority of Congressmen, you get bonus points. GA has most of those IL has none.
______________________________________
Donate to the Rs in Close Senate Races through Slatecard
GA starts with 39, IL with 57. Both get the standard bonuses up to 52 and 70 respectively. Then GA gets a 20 delegate bonus for R success and thus has 72 while IL gets no bonus and has 70.
______________________________________
Donate to the Rs in Close Senate Races through Slatecard
He wasn't my first choice, though. Nor my 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 5th.
My first choice originally was Ben Stein, but he didn't run and I didn't expect him to.
My second choice was Newt Gingrich, who didn't run.
My third choice was Condoleeza Rice, who didn't run.
My fourth choice was Rudy Giuliani, who dropped out last week.
My fifth choice was Fred Thompson, who dropped out two weeks ago.
So, I was down to my sixth choice. How does it feel voting for one's sixth choice? Pretty mediocre, but I'm hoping it keeps John McCain from winning.
---
Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
Rudy was my number 2, and I iwsh it could have coem down to a Romney Rudy race, FWIW I think they would have eventually run as a team.
"You're with me? To the Death. For Narnia!!!!!!"(and Mitt)
And you are spinning like crazy too. Pataki was governor of the second largest state in the Union, the one that will award the most delegates to a single candidate today for Republicans (most likely, CA will split 60-40 to 50-50, whereas most of NY is WTA.
Was CNN spinning with the Crist endorsement, or Mel Martinez, or Schwarzennegar's endorsement? Or, for the Dems, for the Ted Kennedy, Caroline Kennedy endorsements? They are prominent public figures (like it or not) who do have a following.
Keep eating your own by denouncing Pataki as liberal. All this 'if you are not with us 100%, you are against us' is destructive for the party.
As for today, I actually think Mitt might win CA, but will get wiped out in the South and NE (aside from MA). Romney would be much better off if the Rs did not have all these WTA states. Unfortunately for him, every 3rd place finish in the South and big loss elsewhere (6%+) will negate a couple of close victories. It will be difficult to paint McCain as anti-Republican party if you continue to have endorsements rolling in. You can debate whether they are 'conservative' enough endorsements, but they represent registered Republicans who won office while on the Republican ticket. Beyond that is a very nuanced argument that will not play very well IF Romney is behind significantly in the delegates.
Like it or not, people endorse oftentimes because they want to be in good graces with the winner. I cannot see the tide of endorsements turning, nor the perception that Romney will be on life support. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
...I voted for McCain this morning, and Pataki 3 times for Governor - but he wasn't exactly in the mold of Mark Sanford. He's a mixed bag really - he's pretty moderate in places, but not bad in others. Generally though, he has been largely off the scene for most of the year, and left a state party that I would say is weaker than the one that he inherited in 1994 when he won the governor's mansion.
Then again, he is a Republican. He did run as one 3 times and won. He did not shy away from the label, and he supported the party's nominees in each national election since he took office. New York is also a closed primary state. So, McCain will win big in a Republican-only primary. Which means that the Romney folk will have to acknowledge that it's not about being a Republican - it's about who they deem "pure enough" to count.
A vast majority of New York "conservatives" are anything but. McCain winning Republicans in New York is pretty meaningless. In conservative states, Pataki would be more liberal than most Democrats and so would many NY republicans.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
This is not about being a Republican - which is a self-identification. You want to limit the definition of Republican to people you personally consider "conservative enough." By the way, notice I said nothing about NY "conservatives" - I talked only about Republicans. Going into Florida the CW was that McCain can't win a closed primary because he can't win registered Republicans. He's showing that's not true. Spin it however you want, but nobody made you the gatekeeper at the door to the tent.
And the Conservative Party of NY supported Pataki in every one of his elections. Every one.
Super Tuesday States
CA- 170 (170 tied to primary, 3 Unpledged RNC) (closed primary ONLY Republicans can vote. Independents must vote democrat)
NY-101* (WTA and Closed Primary)
GA-69 (69 tied to primary, 3 unpledged RNC)
IL- 57 (57 tied to primary, 10 Unpledged statewide delegates, 3 unpledged RNC. Romney already has 1 of the unpledged delegates)
MO-58* (WTA)
TN- 52 (52 tied to Primary, 3 Unpledged RNC) (NOT a winner take all state as some news stations are saying. Also latest polls show Romney second here. The polls that have Huckabee in second or leading are outdated.)
AZ-50* (50 tied to primary 3 Unpledged RNC) (WTA and Closed. Also McCain's lead here is not that solid. A lot of people in Arizona are angry with him and his liberal policies and stance on Immigration. If McCain wins here don't expect it to be a huge margin of victory as Romney's will be in Mass)
NJ- 52* (WTA)
AL-45 (45 tied to Primary process, 3 Unpledged RNC)
Mass- 40 (40 tied to primary, 3 unpledged RNC) (Semi open primary)
CT-27* (27 tied to Primay, 3 Unpledged RNC) (WTA and Closed)
CO-43 (43 tied to Caucuses, 3 Unpledged RNC) (Closed but not Winner take all)
Min-38 (38 tied to caucuses, 3 Unpledged RNC. Romney already has 2 of the RNC)
OK-38 (38 tied to primary, 3 Unpledged RNC) (Closed)
UT-36* (WTA)
AK-31 (31 tied to Caucuses, 3 Unpledged RNC, unpledged already committed to Huckabee) (look for Romney to come in a close second and get a decent amount of delegates here)
W.Va- 18 (18 tied to convention on the 5th, 9 tied to May 13th Primary, 3 Unpledged RNC)
Alaska-26 (26 tied to Primary, 3 Unpledged RNC.) (Closed election. Look for Romney to make a strong showing here as well. Many Alaska GOPs are mad at McCain for his bad mouthing of Bridge to Nowhere)
N. Dakota- 23 (23 tied to Caucuses, 3 unpledged RNC)
Montana- 25* (WTA)
Delaware- 15* (15 tied to primary 3 unpledged RNC) (Closed and WTA)
***Out of the total number of delegates, 1,917 are pledged delegates and have to indicate support for a particular candidate at the convention. They are usually elected or chosen on the state and local level.
Unpledged delegates comprise 463 out of the total 2,380 delegates and are not required to indicate a preference for a candidate. A majority of the unpledged are elected and are likely to be committed to a specific candidate. A sizeable majority of unpledged delegates automatically become delegates by virtue of their status as either a party chair or a national party committee person.
In states like Minn. Kansas and Illinois Romney already has RNC Delegate support. He has the most RNC delegate support out of any candidate.
Look for him to make a strong showing in a lot of states. Even if they are WTA if Romney comes in a close second it still strikes a major blow to the McCain camp because Romney will have "chewed" away at huge McCain Leads.
CO, MN, AK (btw, that's Alaska, not Arkansas, which is abbrevaiated AR) do not have any delegates tied to today's contests. They are non-binding caucuses. If you'd like to extrapolate delegates based on who gets picked to go to the state convention and who they support, that's one thing. But to say that any delegates in those states are being bound by any polls conducted during the caucus is a flat falsehood.
NY will not, contrary to CNN's claim, commit all 101 delegates today. It will only commit 87 with the rest being selected at the state party convention. McCain already has the official support of the state party and thus the 3 RNC members from the state.
Also, don't forget that RNC members who "pledge" themselves are free to change their minds at any time prior to the moment they actually cast a vote on the convention floor in September. So while some of these folks have expressed support for one or another candidate - they can decide to "rethink" things. I think that we should count those delegates but delineate them from committed delegates that result from nominating contests.
While unpledged delegates are still not binding, it provides some insight as to the momentum Romney is building. The very fact that unpledged delegates are willing to say they support Romney, despite the RNC push toward McCain, shows this.
I alluded to this in a previous blog. But, remember, 20% of the registered voters today in Arizona are LDS, and they vote at a high rate. 90% will vote for Romney. Also, Arizona is very conservative, and they listen to Rush Limbaugh and Hannity, so I am predicting a win for Romney in Arizona today.
There's a rather large difference between a "bold" prediction and a foolhardy one.
A "bold" prediction is the Giants win the super bowl. A foolhardy one is the Giants will win the super bowl with a 48pt spread.
Romney may or may not do well enough today to continue his campaign. But Hillary will carry Utah in the general election before Romney will win Arizona in the primary today.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
With only a 9 point lead and no polls since 1/31 and with a trend toward Romney we shall see.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2...
Now if I am wrong, I will be eating crow, but if I am right, then what will you say.
It's irrelevant what I'll do if you're right. You won't be.
Let's just say this: If you are right, I'll put money on the Republican nominee, whomever it is, winning Washington DC in the general.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
You should quit while you're ahead before you embarrass yourself.
I doubt even the Romney campaign thinks that AZ is attainable.
Actually, they said they had a chance on Fox news just a couple of minuites ago, and remember, the last Poll showed McCain with only a 9 point lead.
The point isn't whether Romney will win AZ or not. The point is simply that McCain will not carry a large margin in his own state. All it says is if it's a close race, meaning 10 point or less, that McCain is in trouble. If he can't carry his own state with a large margin you can bet the Media and the Romney camp will be all over that. McCain has represented his state for a long time and if they are unhappy with his work (which directly impacts them), what is the rest of the country going to say?
Look how hard McCain campaigned in Mass, and Romney still has a 20 point margin over him. That says a lot.
OK, I'll make a prediction: McCain will carry Arizona by a larger margin then Romney will carry Massachusetts.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
I'll put you down for that, along with Hillary carrying Utah. BTW, why do we follow along and call her by her first name?
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
I was going to make that point as well, but I couldn't think of how to do it without sounding like Hugh Hewitt.
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
McCain isn't going to get a huge advantage in Mass. Will he close the gap a bit? Yes. Will he win it? No. Will he close the gap within 15? No. It is more likely that Romney will come closer to McCain in AZ then McCain will come to Romney in Mass. Will Romney will AZ? Prob not, but he'll come awfully close, without even campaigning there.
And what will they have to show for it? McCain will have delegates from MA and Romney will have nothing from Arizona.
And since Romney staked his campaign on the delegate count - isn't that all that really matters?
So McCain wins nationwide by 200+ delegates, and the Romney camp's new slogan is "Mitt: he only lost by 8 in AZ" ... giggle.
"If all men were just, there would be no need of valor."
- Agesilaus
That being Mormon has greatly benefitted Romney in this election cycle and has resulted in wins in Nevada and Wyoming with Idaho and Utah and much of his CA success also related?
I think you may be enough of a poll watcher to admit that fact which surprises many people.
... to achieve the results you claim. You could completely eliminate every Mormon vote in Nevada and Romney would still have won by a landslide. I haven't seen any great exit polls from Wyoming, but with Mormons being only 10% of the Wyoming population, Mitt's win with 67% of Wyoming's delegates hardly seems to be a "result" of his faith.
Even in Utah, where he is winning overwhelmingly, there are about 30% non-Mormons and yet Romney is pulling 84% of the Republican vote. So he must be doing pretty well among non-Mormons as well. Maybe it is a result of his tremendous success with the 2002 Olympics.
So I'd be careful throwing around the word "fact" when the actual facts contradict your claim (particularly in Nevada, where it is indisputable that the Mormon vote wasn't needed at all for Romney to win easily).
No one competed with Romney in Nevada because of the built in advantage Romney had with the significant Mormon vote. If Florida played a football game and Nebraska was invited to play but Nebraska knew that Florida had a 21 point lead going into the game, Nebraska would not go play the game. As a result of the Mormon vote in Nevada Mitt got to compete against no one, and so his margin of victory means nothing. We can see that Mitt wins against no one (polls in Iowa and N.H. until anyone else spent on ads) but loses against someone except in his home states.
I've tried to explain this using the exact same metaphor.
Romneybots never get it.
It's incredibly simple, but they still can't seem to figure it out.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
end of 2005 figures: 167,822 out of 2,334,000. Source: 2007 LDS Church Almanac. Do you have an actual source?
Once I put actual numbers out, RandomGuy and smokymtman had nothing more to say. That's what happens when people make up numbers and associated theories.
BTW, thats 6X the national average. And he gets 90+% of the Mormon vote every time so far.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
Although, as a block, we do vote in the (large) majority for conservatives and Republicans.
I am sure that plenty of LDS people could have been persuaded to vote for someone who could make their case.
Fred Thompson made his case and campaigned as hard as Romney in Wyoming. He also had been a conservative for longer than he had been running for President. The LDS voters in Wyoming are why he came in second.
Bloomberg as at a loss to explain why he scheduled a New York Giants victory parade on primary day. When the asked why today he looked like a deer stunned by the glare of headlines. The best he could up with was that its the only day that worked for the Giants (yeah, sure) and it only takes a few minutes to vote.
There is some speculation that this will help Hillary by diverting some men away from the polls.
Go Giants
I live in NY and plan on voting for Romney after work.
The polls are open until 8:00pm.
Go Mitt Go!!
Momentum doesn't matter today. It's all about the delegate grab now.
There are 7 WTA states today: AZ, CT, DE, MT, NJ, NY, and UT. They offer a total of 312 delgates. McCain will easily win AZ, CT, NJ, and NY, for a total of 234 delegates. Romney will win UT and MT, for a total of 60 delegates. Dunno about DE.
So the BEST that Romney can do among the WTA states is 78 delegates to 234 for McCain. That is a margin of 156.
"If all men were just, there would be no need of valor."
- Agesilaus
I'm tired of amateur hour commentators here arrogating to themselves the right to determine whether I am a conservative and who demand some sort of fealty to their preferred candidate in order to qualify as a "real Republican." It's ridiculous and has completely turned me off to said candidate, who I was never warm to anyway (I didn't dislike Mitt, just never felt much of anything for him - he's dull and uninspiring). Now I'd sooner pull my toenails out than support him.
I'm going to take a break from RedState. Maybe I'll pop in to read Adam's entries, or absentee's - but even a lot of the "regulars" have turned into raving partisans, and I don't enjoy reading anymore - most Mittiots have ceased to add anything to the debate that can even remotely be called rational or intelligent. Hopefully, everyone will be nice come the summer, when this is all wrapped up - my guess is that if we go much farther along on the calendar we will have poisoned the well too much to ever repair it, but I can hope I'm wrong.
Enjoy ripping each other to shreds. Hope you think it was all worth it when it's over.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
Just read on Race42008, Dobson slamming McCain on the Laura Ingraham show over his social stances.
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
Dobson lost a lot of my respect earlier on this year when he basically denounced every candidate as not being "one of us," and at least implicitly implied he wouldn't vote for any of them.
I mean, not liking one candidate or another is one thing. Saying you won't vote for Romney because he's mormon, won't vote for McCain because of CFR, won't vote for Thompson because he's not a regular church goer, and won't vote for Giuliani because he's pro-choice just shows me that you really only care about having a "you" clone and not about the country. (Huckabee wasn't a factor at this point, I'm guessing he's behind Huck now)
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
Yeah, I guess he kinda jumped the shark when he became overbearing with politics.
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
He attacked FDT because he was told he would be an important part of a Gingrich campaign. Newt kissed his ring and Dobson did as told and then he was irrelevant.
Wrong horse to back there Jimmy, Newt is a serial womanizer who left his first wife while she was battling cancer.
P.S. Your son Ryan is not going to keep the empire going because 1. He has no credentials to speak about anything and 2. His lisp makes him sound terrible on radio and increasingly desperate stunts like getting a tattoo on air do nothing to help.
a lot about the relationship between McCain supporters and Huckabee supporters in the next hour or so. The first ballot in West Virginia has come in with:
Mitt - 41%
Huck - 33%
McCain - 16%
Paul - 10%
Apparently 50% is needed to take the delegates. The second ballot will tell us a lot (scheduled for 1:30pm).
Senator McCain at the Green Dragon pub in Boston, about to watch the SuperBowl in the Capital Mitty.
n/t