MD-SEN: Another Steele Democrat, Part III
Majority of PG County Council Endorse Steele, Kossites Go Beserk
By Adam C Posted in Archived — Comments (14) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Along with the recent endorsement of former PG County Executive Wayne Curry, all 5 black Democratic members of the 9 person PG County Council endorsed Lt. Gov. Michale Steele (R-MD) for Senate yesterday. As the WaPo puts it, the Democratic leaders are "lashing out" at the MD Dem Party. Combined with the Curry endorsement, this signals to disenchanted black Democarts that voting for Michael Steele is an acceptable way to show the MD Dem Party that you are not going to be taken for granted any more. Further, these endorsements are the fruition of years of work by Mr. Steele trying to win over converts in PG county. It is a major success for the black voter outreach effort of the RNC and a personal feat for Mr. Steele. Seeing black voters get lots of attention from both parties is upsetting one group: kossites.
Kossites have a slew of diaries on the issue. The most commented one is here by a lady from MD. Like most of the diaries, it attacks the black Democrats who endorsed Steele. They are being called traitors and racists in the comments. The PG leaders' fundamental grievance is that when Mfume jumped in the Senate race first, MD Dem Party leaders did not endorse him. They waited. When Cardin jumped in, they endorsed immediately. Following on the failure of the Democratic Party to put forward a single black candidate for GOV or SEN in the history of the state has caused many black voters to feel taken advantage of. This concern is being attacked viciously by kossites who seem to believe that Democrats should be able to expect 90% support from the black community regardless of how the community is treated.
This race is a toss-up now. Mr. Steele needs 30% of the black vote in the state to sew up a win. 25% is the minimum to have a chance. We'll see how he does in one week.
[UPDATE] Again, I am left wondering if Cardin skipping the NAACP debate was the last straw for some of these endorsees.
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MD-SEN: Another Steele Democrat, Part III 14 Comments (0 topical, 14 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
simply because of the tilt of Maryland, but it is definitely moving toward Steele.
It's been since mid-September since there was a poll with Steele ahead although SUSA had one that was a tie the other day.
Rasmussen also had the race move about 4 points in Steele's direction in the past couple of weeks.
Worse, in my mind, is that Cardin's over 50% in 2 of the last 3 non-Zogby polls.
The reason MD is so blue is because of the black vote. MD has the highest percentage of black residents of any state outside of the South. Blacks were 24% of the vote in 2004. President Bush won the white vote 55-44 but lost the black vote 11-89. Steele and Ehrlich have been polling around 55% of the white vote. If the white vote breaks 55-44 again, then the Rs need 34% of the black vote to get a bare majority.
Most likely, the Rs will do a bit better than the President in the white community. Thus, a 30% showing in the black community should solidify a victory for Steele. A 25% is almost necessary under any scenario. FWIW, polls have shown everything from tied to -10 in the past two weeks. I feel a 3-5 point lead for Cardin is pretty accurate.
So the fact that almost every major black elected official from the biggest black county in the state endorsed Steele is definitely something that makes it more likely Steele can win.
and I like the fact that the African American leadership sees Steele as a worthy candidate, and I admit I like that fact that they are telling the DNC that their vote and endorsements shouldn't be taken for granted.
The whole "traitor to the race" type comments are just one exammple of how democrats think blacks should march in lock step to the tune of their drum.
All the polling i have seen except for SUSA has cardin well ahead so what makes you say this is a dead heat. The local media is playing up Steele as a right winger, in fact about all they showed from the MTP debate was Steele getting all defensive about being a republican.
I have lived in MD for 35 years and cannot imagine a conservative republican ever getting elected to the senate
from this state.
Just analyzing the race. If you want to believe the -10 poll that you're choice. SUSA has it tied. I think both are off a little. Cardin is ahead. But this announcement could be enough to shave off 3 points. And I'm not claiming the state is voting for a conservative Republican. They are voting for Michael Steele. He is an amazing campaigner and it is hard for me to see how anyone who meets him will vote against him unless they are ideological.
He's at lest somewhat pro-affirmative action for one thing.
That being said, he would be with us on Judges and control and probably a lot of other things (thought Judges and control are the things that I care about).
Now, if you don't mind, people trying to win this election are talking.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC.
a peaceful place where wealthy blacks and whites live in racial harmony, far from the cocktail chattering-class inane psychobabble of Montgomery County "liberals" who are all appendages of the US-government sugar-daddy in D.C.
The Maryland Dems are dependent on the black vote, but throw only occasional political crumbs to their single largest constituency. The unions and old-time Baltimore white nabobs control the plantation that is the Dem party in MD and have selected one of their hacks, a party-line white limousine liberal, instead of a qualified black who was narrowly beaten in the primary.
I hope against hope that Steele pulls out a victory, as the hypocritical smug stand-patism of the liberal-white Maryland Dems needs a shake-up very badly.
As the WaPo puts it, the Democratic leaders are "lashing out" at the MD Dem Party. Combined with the Curry endorsement, this signals to disenchanted black Democarts that voting for Michael Steele is an acceptable way to show the MD Dem Party that you are not going to be taken for granted any more. Further, these endorsements are the fruition of years of work by Mr. Steele trying to win over converts in PG county. It is a major success for the black voter outreach effort of the RNC and a personal feat for Mr. Steele.
If Mfume was the Democrat nominee, I don't think we would have seen this, the black vote would be locked up by him. Steele has a chance in this election only because the black community's vote is now up for grabs.
Just as every cop is a criminal, and all the sinners saints - Sympathy for the Democrats
seem in need of some racial harmony themselves over this announcement.
significantly higher than support for Republicans usually is?
I can't find the stats on that. One-off anecdotes are fun, but I'm hoping for a hard figure here.
The Wash Post poll internals showed Steele with 14% support among African-Americans (Ehrlich has 11%). Those numbers sound about right, give or take 2-3%. These endorsements may change that somewhat, but if you believe these numbers, then that means that these endorsements would have to move AT LEAST 15% of the African-American electorate in Maryland. A real tough, almost impossible thing to do with only 6 days to go.
Also, i havent heard anything from Al Wynn yet on Steele, and if you know PG politics, Wynn's poltiical machine steamrolls PG politics any way Wynn wants. Many PG politicos owe their political careers to Wynn and he might be playing some internal MD politics by not putting his hand into the mix as of yet.
Just to out myself, i am a Dem, and i read this site because i am one of those Dems who likes to listen to his opponents and make up his mind based on all points of view. that said, i do believe that there is a need to wake the MD Dem Party to the importance of not taking the minority vote for granted (i am not AF but another minority often taken for granted by the Party). I think that the PG move is going to really make changes in the way the Party works with minorities. Except for Steele i have seen nothing in the way the MD Republican Party operates that weill entice MD Minorities to switch, we may stay home, but there are NO minority Republicans in the MD Legislature, something that the Republican Party really needs to correct if they want to ride the Steele wave to future possible victories. One minority in the entire state party isn't going to cut into our vote very much, esp if Steele loses this one. Expect Mfume to be courted heavily by the State Dem Party after Nov 8th no matter how the vote goes, also look to Anthony Brown to head an effort to bring back all those Steele Dems.
thanks for listening.
Here's another post about a Senate race that's still winnable.
Blogging at RespectfullyRepublican.com
. . . our Democratic friends are perfectly happy to support black candidates, as long as they represent majority black districts.
Ask yourself a simple question: how many black members of the House of Representatives were first elected to represent majority white districts?
Dana
Common Sense Political Thought