Redstate

As one who watched the debate between Mfume and Cardin last night, that Mfume is different, at least in rhetoric, from Sharpton and Jackson. They are inflammatory, and at least in this race, Mfume has been very measured and calm.

He is very well coached, much better than Cardin. I love Mike Steele, and he should win this against Mfume. However, Mfume will be less likely to make a gaffe (something Mr. Steele is sadly known to do from time to time) before november.

Mfume will lose this race because of white democrats who will be turned off by his extremely liberal politics that hide underneath Mfume's calm demeanor. Steele will pull it out with Black youth pickups and White Suburban DLC dems, who see Mfume as way too liberal.

Blue Crabs are nice, but everyone knows they are best when they are bright RED!

For one thing, polls already show Steele fairing better against Mfume than Cardin (he actually leads some of them).

Like it or not, we have to realize that voters ARE racially sensitive and when you put a white against a non-white, the races tend to support their own and that's not just a Southern phenomenon (for instance, there's only 1 Black Senator in the US Senate today and that was in a black vs. black Senate race in Illinois). I would think that, barring a scandal, Cardin would be more favored to win than Mfume. But if it's Steele versus Mfume, you have black vs. black and the rules change.

The point is this: Kweisi Mfume is no Barack Obama. Many white voters are very wary of organisations like the NAACP (which Mfume presided over for some time) and Michael Steele already projects himself as the level-headed, safer vote for whites unsure of who they want to vote for. The key is the white vote, not the black vote. What's more, Mfume has his own baggage of adultery, etc, so he's hardly a star. I feel that Steele would probably win if Mfume takes the primary. The problem for Dems is that they know Cardin is the better candidate, but black will constitute about 40% or possibly more of the total primary vote and you've got to know that the vast majority of those votes will go for Mfume.

Michael Steele v. Kweisi Mfume
= African-American v. African American (cancels each other out)
= conservative v. liberal.

In a liberal state like Maryland, that will give Mfume the edge he needs to win down the stretch - despite what the polls say now.

Michael Steele v. Ben Cardin
= African-American v. Caucasian
= conservative v. liberal.

Here, the conservative v. liberal vote will remain largely unchanged from the Steele v. Mfume scenario. What the big mover will be in this race is...race. Since the African-American vote is larger in Maryland than many other states, this has real political consequences. Caucasian conservatives aren't going to vote for Cardin because he's white, but African-American voters who have been voting for liberal candidates because they are black will likely be much more likely to vote for a conservative Steele because he, too, is black.

That leaves the independent vote. Will Independents - a kind word for those who are largely politically unaware until a few weeks if not days before an election - vote for a white congressman who has represented only one congressional district in the state or the black Lt. Governor who has represented everyone in the state for 4 years? Especially if they also vote to re-elect the Governor he ran with? I expect the Independents in Cardin's district will break for Cardin. In the rest of the state, I'm not so sure that the more familiar name and face of Michael Steele won't win out over Cardin with these voters, racial-identity politics aside.

Unless there is a variable that I'm missing here, I think that down the stretch, it is a Steele v. Cardin matchup that benefits the GOP most because it gives us the best non-ideological contrast down the stretch. The liberals currently polling that they'd vote for Steele over Mfume will probably go home to roost with the liberal, and African-Americans will have no incentive to vote for an African-American Republican over the African-American Democrat like the ones they are more occustomed to voting for. Those habits are hard to break.

You are correct that liberals will support Cardin or Mfume. The question is where will moderate suburban Ds go. Cardin is exactly what they are used to with Sarbanes and Mikulski. A wonkish elder man who knows his stuff and generally seems like a nice guy. Mfume, on the other hand, is a rabid partisan whose passion will turn off moderates. Steele is exactly the type of person who will seem acceptable and in control to these moderates. Further, once they question supporting Mfume (which already seems to have happened), they will give Steele a chance. He is a good enough politician to seal the deal with many of them. And moderates love to vote for the moderate R or moderate D over any partisan.

Even though President Bush won the white vote in MD 55-45, Cardin looks likely to win a majority of the white vote
against Steele. That would sink the race.

Against Mr. Mfume, Steele loses his 20+% of the black vote, although a large chunk of black voters remains undecided in that matchup. The benefit is really the DC and Baltimore suburbs that elected Erhlich are put off by Mfume. For all his rhetorical assets, Mr. Mfume does not know how to win over moderate or independent voters. He will win the liberal vote, but that is only 30-40% of the state. Steele can win the 25% that is conservative and teh 35-45% that is in between.

If Mr. Steele could beat Cardin, then I would prefer that situation as it would help Republicans reach out to the black community. However, I think once Steele beats Mfume he will have 6 years of reaching out in a personal way to many black leaders in MD. His support in 6 years will be much higher and he will be able to convert other young blacks into Republicans and inspire them to run for office themselves. Whatever gets Mr. Steele into the Senate is good for Rs in the long run in MD.

Social Security Choice - Club For Growth

If Mfume wins, I hope you're right. If Cardin wins, I hope I'm right. :-)

Either way, there's nothing I can do about who the Democrats elect, so I'll sit back here in Houston and do my best to help Steele beat whoever emerges.

Looking for a new job that pays more money sooner so I can make bigger campaign contributions. :-)

I think it's pretty clear that most blacks are going to vote for the Dem nominee (whoever wins) and it will probably be much more decisive if Mfume wins. However, I really think Mfume will turn off white voters. If Mfume had a moderate, level-headed and inclusive reputation, then he would win. But he's Mr. NAACP and in the same league as Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, at least as far as many whites are concerned.

If Marlyand were majority black, then Cardin would be the guy we hoped was nominated. But Maryland's electorate was 71% white in 2004 (according to exit polls) and that's where the elction is going to be decided. If it's Steele vs. Mfume, white voters will be forced to vote for a black which will inhibit voting merely on race, and I strongly feel whites will identify more with Steele than Mfume. The very fact that Mfume changed his name just so it would sound more African isn't exactly a turn on to white voters. What's more, Steele has already won at the statewide level as Gov. Ehrlich's running mate and is well-known and relatively respected.

In addition to all this, Steele will blunt Mfume's advantage with black voters at least somewhat, thanks to his ethnicity.

And, as previously discussed, I think Cardin would be favored to win if he wins the nomination, though Steele would certainly not be out of the running.

>>I think it's pretty clear that most blacks are going to vote for the Dem nominee (whoever wins) and it will probably be much more decisive if Mfume wins.

Your statement seems to assume a constant pool of voters, when history suggests otherwise. In fact, it's pretty clear that most (ie the majority of) blacks are not going to vote at all. The overall turnout is unlikely to reach 50%, and in less well off urban areas (where most blacks live) it is likely to be still lower.

The question is not just how many blacks will vote for Steele, but how many will choose not to vote. In the event of Mfume winning we can expect a high black turnout. In the event of Cardin winning it will be harder for Dems to turn out the black vote. Remember, their main tactic in doing this is to call Republicans racist. If the Democrats reject a qualified and well-known black candidate while the Republicans choose a black candidate this will be a MUCH harder sell.

Of 100 black voters who would vote Mfume, only a small number (say 10) would switch to Steele, but another 20 0r 30 might stay at home. That would hit Cardin's vote VERY hard, as Democrats depend on 90% of the black vote to win in states like MD.

You are certainly right that Mfume scares off more white voters than does Cardin, but overall the effect may be a wash _on the Senate election_. But a lower black turnout would certainly help Ehrlich in the gubernatorial election.

Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net

>>Your statement seems to assume a constant pool of voters, when history suggests otherwise. In fact, it's pretty clear that most (ie the majority of) blacks are not going to vote at all. The overall turnout is unlikely to reach 50%, and in less well off urban areas (where most blacks live) it is likely to be still lower.

I get your point about the potential of a higher black turnout with Mfume on the ballot. However, I still don't think that it will be enough to tip the balance.

Do you remember the much-hyped 2002 Democratic 'dream team' in Texas? Black Dem Ron Kirk was running for the Senate and Hispanic Dem Tony Sanchez was running for governor. The idea was that minorities would flock to the polls and overwhelm the GOP white candidates. It didn't happen then and I don't think that will happen in the 2006 Mfume vs. Steele contest either.

Like I mentioned earlier, I don't think most blacks will feel threatened by Steele because, after all, he's also black. As an illustration of this, one might be tempted to think that the black share of the electorate would have been much higher in Illinois in the 2004 election because it was black vs. black in Obama versus Keyes. However, blacks were only 10% of the electorate according to exit polls, while in 1998, when it was a black senator Mosely-Braun versus white Republican Peter Fitzgerald, blacks constituted 18% of the electorate according to exit polls. Neither Obama nor Keyes seemed to send the blacks to the polls in any remarkable numbers. But, when it was white vs. black, it apparently was a different story.

However, I don't think that Steele would have the vote spark for blacks on his own if he runs against Cardin but the racial divide will likely persist, with whites more likely to support the white Dem. But blacks would probably not concomitantly be more likely to support Steele over Cardin.

I think this election will be decided by the white vote and that's why I would prefer Steele vs. Obama.