MD-SEN: New poll 47-47 tie.
Is SUSA an outlier? Or is their likely voter filter better?
By Adam C Posted in 2006 — Comments (33) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
No internal data online yet, but Dave Wissing of Hedgehog Report and Michelle Malkin report that this SUSA poll shows the following:
Cardin (D) 47
Steele (R) 47
Zeese (G) 3
Undec 4
Note that SUSA showed the race tied at 46-46 on 10/18 when other polls showed Cardin in the lead. This could be because of likely vote filters (which would lead to differences between surveys) or just a different sample (which would lead to differences between each poll). SUSA has good internals, so I will link to the poll when they post it.
[UPDATE] Here is the WUSA9 article on the poll. Hopefully, SUSA will release the internals soon. The article has some internal information:
SurveyUSA's turnout model is 26% black. Of black likely voters, 33% vote for the Republican Steele, who is black. If less than one-third of blacks vote Republican, the Democrat Cardin wins. Other polling firms show both a lower black turnout and less support among blacks for Steele.
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MD-SEN: New poll 47-47 tie. 33 Comments (0 topical, 33 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
If Steele wins, this race can signal the beginning of the end of the stranglehold the Democrats have had on the black vote for a generation.
Just as every cop is a criminal, and all the sinners saints - Sympathy for the Democrats
WUSA-TV has confirmed the Senate numbers and also states the poll shows O'Malley ahead of Ehrlich by 1%.
That's good news. I was worried the station was using the old poll and messing up the numbers by 1 for Cardin and Steele.
And the 26% black vote is a really good sign. If the black vote is that high and the polls are tied, then Steele must be doing well in the black community. The only other ties have shown lower black turnout.
The chances Steele wins this are about as good as the Dolphins winning the Super Bowl this year. Face it: a Democratic Congress will be good for the country for the next two years. If ever an administration needed oversight in our country's history, it's this one. www.minor-ripper.blogspot.com
47 to 47. You figure in that the liberal media ALWAYS underestimates GOP voting strength in polls by about 5%.
If I was a betting man, at this point I'd bet on Steele.
And one factor not being mentioned is the 3rd Party candidate in the race, Kevin Zeese. He is a Green/Marijuana candidate. that pulls from Cardin. There's a lot of "potheads" in Maryland. They'll all vote Zeese.
When the media ignores the 3rd party element in all these razor thin races it's easy not to get the clearest of pictures.
Eric Dondero
www.mainstreamlibertarian.com
He explains the polls like this:
1. Bush lied.
2. All Republicans are racist.
3. Steele isn't really black, he is a white guy with a tan.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
we're busy trying to win an election here, ya troll.
Just as every cop is a criminal, and all the sinners saints - Sympathy for the Democrats
Is that someone beat me to offing you.
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Even those who learn from history are surrounded by those doomed to repeat it.
Sweet, just make sure not to vote in MD since it's a done deal. You can ignore all those Democarts endorsing Steele in Prince George. And you can ignore the fact that Steele is an outstanding candidate who fits exactly what many independent and moderate MD voters want in a candidate. Go ahead, it'll make Steele's job easier.
And I'll just ignore your non-sequitor.
Mobies say "We" not "You."
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If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
the only ones with the 3rd party candidate? That could explain the difference with the other polls where Cardin has a lead of a few points.
I think Steele has proven himself a capable candidate, and it is nice to see that high a percentage among black voters-it means the attempts to paint him an uncle Tom and oreo are falling on deaf ears.
it's actively offending a significant chunk of a traditionally Democrat base. Perhaps if they had treated Mfume with at least a bit of respect this story would be different. Hopefully we've gained some permanent converts or at least some people who will become swing voters (to gain some true political power) in future races.
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Socialism doesn't work. It looks nice on paper, but it's been tried and it's failed miserably every time (usually accompanied by widespread death and suffering).
Proud member of the V.R.W.C.
or it won't matter in 2 years. If Steele does win, I see Curry running as a Steele Republican in the future. And many others following that path.
...which is a most difficult year for Republicans, will Michael Steele ever lose this seat? I don't think so. This is a seat that Steele might hold for a very, very long time.
He's too valuable. He would make a great VP or President in the future. But I'll take Senator for now.
John McCain or the most powerful Vice President in eons, Dick Cheney? It's a close call.
Who was more influential? Al Gore or Teddy Kennedy? Not a close call.
I think Michael Steele could be a powerful Senator for a very long time.
Honestly...if you gave ME a choice between being vice president for 8 years or a 4-term senator, I'd take the latter.
From WUSA's website:
"In the race for Senate, the new survey shows Republican Michael Steele and Democrat Ben Cardin are tied with 47% of the vote. Unlike other pollsters, SurveyUSA has consistently showed the race tied. One explanation: SurveyUSA's turnout model is 26% black. Of black likely voters, 33% vote for the Republican Steele, who is black. If less than one-third of blacks vote Republican, the Democrat Cardin wins. Other polling firms show both a lower black turnout and less support among blacks for Steele."
This is HUGE. Assuming SUSA's turnout model is close to correct, and if Steele actually pulls something approaching 33% of the black vote, he's gonna win.
My understanding is that 25% of the black vote is necessary and 30% makes victory likely. Note that only 24% of MD voters in 2004 were black, so the 26% filter may be off (or not). Steele will win the white vote (as will Ehrlich and as did Bush). The question is whether he gets enough black votes to hold off Cardin in the overall vote. If he gets 33% of the black vote, I would be surprised to see him lose.
He seemed to stay pretty silent after the primary from what we hear out in the boonies, but I wonder whether some of these late black endorsements were done with his blessing.
With Bob Corker pulling away in Tennessee and George Allen apparently stabilising in Virginia, this is really good news. I believe we can win Maryland!
I have voted - have you?
Carl Cameron of FNC reported that there was a debate where both guys played it pretty safe for the most part, but that Cardin pulled one major boner. At one point he said the Patriot Act was passed before he was in Congress or something to that effect.
Please tell me that's true and the local stations are airing it and Steele is jumping all over it.
Here's the YouTube.
But what happened next? Did someone call him on it. Many viewers may not have realised this was a flat out lie, unless Steele or, better, the moderator, pointed out that a) Cardin has been in DC for 20 years and b) the Patriot Act was passed in 2002.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
Several:
1) Saying the Patriot act was passed before he was in Congress.
2) Not being able to discuss the Metro Purple line, in fact, not even knowing what it is. (As posted elsewhere, if you don't know what the Purple line is, don't worry. But it's sort of like a German not knowing about Bratwurst, or a Russian knowing nothing about Vodka, or [in memory of MinorRipper] like a Penn State fan not knowing who Joe Paterno is.)
3) Trying to play the race card against Steele.
I pray. I not hope ...Steele out-right wins the Maryland U.S. Senate seat.
This would be a victory for America and individuals like me who are seen as "sell-outs" to their communities in order to be apart of the bigger picture....America.
-lbjgal
That is the issue that will get more Blacks to vote Republican.
that Steele will win this. It is long past time that African Americans see that Republicans have much to offer to them. AS a hispanic I witness all to often fellow hispanics, blacks and other minorotes who simply vote Democratic without considering the individual candidate on judging him on his merrits. This election could finally be the beginning of the end of race politics.