MI-GOV, SEN: Republican Opportunities
Senate Race Narrows, Gubernatorial Race Is Toss-Up, Incumbents Under 50%
By Adam C Posted in Archived — Comments (9) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
In new Rasmussen polls that are not yet released, both Michigan races look close with the Senate race finally becoming as competitive as the Governor race:
DeVos (R) 46 (48)
Granholm (D) 47 (42)
Bouchard (R) 44 (34)
Stabenow (D) 49 (54)
Note that if this poll is corroborated, there are two important trends. First, the new poll shows two races that are almost identical with incumbent Democrats polling just under 50 and Republican challengers in a decent position to win over undecided voters to win an upset. Second, there is significant movement in both polls but in opposite directions. If the lurch was in the same direction it could be an odd sample in one of the polls, but this movement is harder to explain. It never quite made sense why Stabenow was coasting while Granholm suffered. But it seems the press from Bouchard's primary win possibly helped boast his name recognition and viability.
It will take another poll showing the Senate race within 5 points before I knock this race into the top tier for Republican pickups. But with NJ, MN, MD, and WA polling with 5 points, this could make 5 close pickup opportunities. The overall political climate is not strongly Republican, but if we see a strong *anti-incumbent* election rather than an anti-Republican one, it is possible these states could send Republicans to Washington next year.