MI-GOV, SEN: Republican Opportunities

Senate Race Narrows, Gubernatorial Race Is Toss-Up, Incumbents Under 50%

By Adam C Posted in Comments (9) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

In new Rasmussen polls that are not yet released, both Michigan races look close with the Senate race finally becoming as competitive as the Governor race:

DeVos (R) 46 (48)
Granholm (D) 47 (42)

Bouchard (R) 44 (34)
Stabenow (D) 49 (54)

Note that if this poll is corroborated, there are two important trends. First, the new poll shows two races that are almost identical with incumbent Democrats polling just under 50 and Republican challengers in a decent position to win over undecided voters to win an upset. Second, there is significant movement in both polls but in opposite directions. If the lurch was in the same direction it could be an odd sample in one of the polls, but this movement is harder to explain. It never quite made sense why Stabenow was coasting while Granholm suffered. But it seems the press from Bouchard's primary win possibly helped boast his name recognition and viability.

It will take another poll showing the Senate race within 5 points before I knock this race into the top tier for Republican pickups. But with NJ, MN, MD, and WA polling with 5 points, this could make 5 close pickup opportunities. The overall political climate is not strongly Republican, but if we see a strong *anti-incumbent* election rather than an anti-Republican one, it is possible these states could send Republicans to Washington next year.


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MI-GOV, SEN: Republican Opportunities 9 Comments (0 topical, 9 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »

These numbers are consistent with other polls being done in Michigan.

Clearly, neither incumbent Democrat has been able to garner over 50% of the electorate for over a year. They are in trouble.

The Republican nominees have made these races "tight". Michigan is and has been a swing state. We tend to win and lose close races by less than 1/2%.

Expect the same this fall...although I'm predicting we win two!

OK...that's my job!!!

Saulius "Saul" Anuzis
Chairman
Michigan Republican Party

If every state party had someone like you, they'd be better off I'm sure. Because you sure have me knowing WAY more about Michgan's races this year than I really should, being way out in California and all.
--
"In this day and age, you're not going to get a fair shake in the media" -- Lance Armstrong

is that DeVos wins a squeaker in the governor's race and Bouchard loses by around 5 points. I base that on the fact that Granholm has to run on Michigan's poor economy and job hemmoraging while Stabenow largely does not, which means she gets the full advantage of being a Democrat in what I would characterize as still a Democrat leaning state.

However, I will temper my somewhat pessimistic outlook on the Senate race with one caveat - I am very surprised that merely winning the GOP primary sent Bouchard to a net 15 point gain against Stabenow. If the Rasmussen polls for the next few weeks have Stabenow holding below 50, the Bouchard camp will have to be getting pretty excited. Such a show of strength will draw more resources and high-profile attention from the national GOP, and nothing would help Bouchard more than a few visits by a popular GOP centrist like McCain or Giuliani.

In either case, I think the situation in Michigan is evidence for my gut feeling that a lot of pundits are going to wake up very surprised the morning after election day to find solid GOP majorities in both houses. As you point out Adam, there are 5 GOP Senate candidates in blue states running within 5 points of the Democrat. Perhaps they will all lose, but the fact that they are mounting such credible challenges is glaring evidence that there is no nationalized anti-Republican sentiment this year. Why are so few pundits pointing this out? Am I just crazy?

which is really ironic because Bouchard is a qualified Republican while DeVos is just trying buy his way to the Governor's mansion. He already has bought devosforpresident.com, which is scary since the guy hasn't been elected to anything worthwhile in his life.

Alas, he will probably win while Bouchard won't, but at least Granholm will go away.

Hey, you already have your corroboration poll:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=27bc992d-e678-421...

Ladies and gentleman, the Michigan Senate race has finally woken up . . .

It has been in the news that the legislature passed an early repeal (actually and early end) of the single business tax. Repealing that tax has been a big talking point for DeVos. Unfortunatly for him it was via petition so (I think) it is not possible for Granholm to shoot herself in the foot and veto it-as she has done in the past. I wondered if that might take a bit of wind out of his sails since he talks about the sbt so often he has become synonomous with it. I figure we see a bunch of new adds tweaking his campaign talking points
.
I also saw the first Granholm adds. Not tons of mud slinging-yet, but may also contribute to her bump.

I'll buy you a car if our guys can even pick up two Dem seats. Though the MI poll is promising for a horrible liberal Senator.

Actually, the survey shows a dramatic tightening of the race in Michigan (confirmed by Survey USA). It's clearly an uphill battle for Bouchard, but he's no longer being viewed as a hopeless candidate. Personally, I think he stands a chance.

I'll be checking out new models between now and November. Of course, I feel it is important to point out that if the elections were today we would lose 3-4 seats.

Social Security Choice - Club For Growth

 
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