Redstate

Chuck Hagel May Meet His Match in 2008

By Adam C Posted in Archived — Comments (8) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Since primary challenges seem to be en vogue recently with the Toomey, Lamont, and Laffey efforts in the Senate, I want to take a quick look at what we know about these efforts. First, voters seem to be quite pragmatic. In left-of-center CT, Ds dumped Lieberman despite a strong liberal record. In left-of-center RI, Rs look likely to keep Chafee on the ballot despite a strong liberal record. In swingy PA, Rs barely left Specter on the ballot despite his left-of-GOP voting record. Second, one issue can be enough to drive a challenger. This comes mainly from the CT race where the war and a lack of loyalty was all it took to rise up and defeat a highly reputed member of a major party. Putting this all together, I am going to make a prediction that will either be forgotten or heralded by primary season 2008...

Chuck Hagel will lose his Republican primary if he runs. Sen. Hagel has the same negatives (in a mirror image way) as Sen. Lieberman. He hails from a rather conservative state and he has a record of disloyalty that upsets activists. He is obviously contemplating running for President as the Pacifist Republican in 2008 which would leave his seat open. If he decides to run for the Senate, I expect some conservative will challenge him.

There is a strong conservative bench in NE, although these challenges aren't generally from the usual ranks of Congressmen and bigwigs. Nevertheless, ex-REP Osbourne is no longer employed, ex-GOV and US SEC of AG Heinemann will be looking for a job in 2008 and if Mr. Ricketts loses a close race with Mr. Nelson then he too could contemplate a second go. Personally, I think Mr. Ricketts seems like a great Senator-in-the-making and hope he gets another shot in 2008 if 2006 goes as expected with Mr. Nelson winning 55-60%. However, even if the big names pass on the position, a restless state representative could give it a shot and probably have a decent chance. NE GOPers don't have to worry about "electability" and can vote their heart. Looking at recent polling, Hagel has higher approval ratings from Ds than Rs in NE. Ds favor his behavior 60-33 while Rs favor it 53-41. That narrow majority comes without any opposition hammering him for his positions. And after 2-4 years of hearing Sen. Hagel spend his time and effort denigrating the U.S. military efforts in the Middle East and the War on Terror, NE GOPers just might follow their hearts to a primary challenger.