Scientist Says the Sun is Warming the Earth and Mars Together

...And incurs wrathful ostracism

By blackhedd Posted in | | Comments (39) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Ok, so I got a kick out of this. A scientist who heads an astronomical observatory in St. Petersburg (Russia, not Florida) says that changes in solar output are causing simultaneous warming trends on both the Earth and Mars. The data on Martian warming come from the recent Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions. The data on Earth warming come from, well, you know.

The article from the National Geographic doesn't specify the scientist's specialty, though one supposes it's astronomy or astrophysics, given his affiliation, and not climatology. The climatology world is not amused, naturally.

Read on...

The felicitously-named Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov tells us that alternating patterns of ice ages and warm periods on both Mars and Earth can be explained by periodic changes in solar output. While this certainly seems like common sense, we get this response:

"His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion," said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. "And they contradict the extensive evidence presented in the most recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] report." Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that "the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations."

Here's what they mean: the prevailing theory in the climatology world is that ice ages on both planets are caused by tiny orbital fluctuations occurring at eon-length time scales. The sun has little if anything to do with it. Whatever.

What about greenhouse gases?

Perhaps the biggest stumbling block in Abdussamatov's theory is his dismissal of the greenhouse effect, in which atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide help keep heat trapped near the planet's surface.

He claims that carbon dioxide has only a small influence on Earth's climate and virtually no influence on Mars.

Bad dog. No cookie! But there's more:

Most scientists now fear that the massive amount of carbon dioxide humans are pumping into the air will lead to a catastrophic rise in Earth's temperatures, dramatically raising sea levels as glaciers melt and leading to extreme weather worldwide.

Abdussamatov remains contrarian, however, suggesting that the sun holds something quite different in store.

"The solar irradiance began to drop in the 1990s, and a minimum will be reached by approximately 2040," Abdussamatov said. "It will cause a steep cooling of the climate on Earth in 15 to 20 years."

Just thought you'd want to know. There's going to be a fire sale on beachfront property in the next few years until GW hysteria abates. If you're feeling contrarian, there might be a play for you.

Scientist Says the Sun is Warming the Earth and Mars Together 39 Comments (0 topical, 39 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »

They trot out the orbital wobble and then don't mention that the effect is less on mars because of the lesser atmosphere and lack of oceans. They tut his skepticism about the effects of co2 on mars when the atmospheric is less than a hundredth of ours.

______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

More than 90 percent of violent crimes are committed within 24 hours of eating bread.

demands harsh, brutal judgment of heretics.

-------------
So libs, how's that Congressional Resolution to end The War™ coming along?

Even those who are actually believers, but stray from the orthodoxy on how to go about fixing the problem, are cast out as infidels.

This, to me, is the greatest clue about the true intents of the most devout followers of Climatology.

Dr. Paul Crutzen is a German atmospheric chemist who won the Nobel Prize some years back for his work on the depletion of the ozone layer. And he is as devout a Climatologist as you'll find anywhere.

Last year, he published a paper suggesting an idea about a geo-engineered response to climate change. His idea was to inject sulfur particles into the upper atmosphere to serve as what would amount to a mirror, reflecting sunlight and its heat back into space.

In putting this forth, he said that it's still not the best way to combat GW. The best way is the traditional fundamentalist way: reduce greenhouse gas emissions, etc. etc.

What I found most interesting about this was not the idea itself, but some of the response it generated from within the Climatology cult itself. It was treated as a kind of blasphemy. How dare he suggest a way to combat global warming that didn't put the clamps on the industrialized economy?!?!

One writer, in the Guardian, said he couldn't believe that a man like Crutzen would suggest something that would allow Big Oil to keep filling its pockets (no, I'm not kidding).

Sooner or later, we're going to find that this was all much ado about nothing. And, when we do, those who advocated Draconian measures to stop a problem that we couldn't stop if we wanted to -- if it's even much of a problem -- will shrink back into the background, never be held to account, and find the next possible avenue (environmental or otherwise) to try to curb capitalism.

Do you have examples of the alleged response of the Climatology cult?

Maybe you were referring to this Guardian op-ed? It seems to me to be a straightforward counter-argument to a highly controversial proposal, recognised by its author to be problematic. And when he said "Most dangerously, his scheme could be used by governments to help justify their failure to cut carbon emissions: if the atmosphere could one day be fixed by some heavy artillery and a few technicians, why bother to impose unpopular policies?" (which is well short of your "How dare he...") he was actually directly paraphrasing one of the objections that Crutzen acknowledged:
Importantly, its possibility should not be used to justify inadequate climate policies, but merely to create a possibility to combat potentially drastic climate heating.

on Mars, warming up the place. Is there no end to their fiendish scheming?

Get with the program!

Let's just hope that Dick Cheney doesn't fill Kuato full of shot before the oxygen gets released!

Run like Reagan!

Unplug your cell phone chargers before it's too late!!!

(If you don't know what I'm talking about, Laurie David and other GW nuts think that if we all unplug our electronic device chargers when we're not using them, we'll be able to "make a difference." Somehow I don't think the cell phone chargers are dooming the earth.)

If they weren't spewing CO2 into the thin Martian atmosphere and totally screwing up the planetary eco system, there would be no warming on Mars!

It seems to me that scientists are a "wacky" bunch, one tries to prove a theory, another tries to disprove the theory, one succeeds and wins an award and the other goes crazy.

There have been plenty of de-bunkings as well as plenty of theories proved.

that it's even affecting Mars.

We're not just warming the earth, we're warming the whole solar system! Evil humans!!

I mean, before we sent the Mars Global Surveyor is there any evidence that Mars was warming? Until we went there it was just fine.

Where? All I could see was a scientist offerring a rather upper-end-of-the-scale version of a well known view, acknowledged in the IPCC report, that there may be some increase in solar output affecting climate, and a couple of scientists disagreeing.

You know the above works for just about anything but anyway from the article.
Abdussamatov's work, however, has not been well received by other climate scientists.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

They think he is wrong. They may have reasons. So?

Isn't being labeled a denier enough to get you unwanted attention from the inquisition the senate these days.

Sorry Pliny we aren't the people who started shutting up those we disagree with.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

the only scientists I can recall getting unwelcome individual attention in recent times from Congress were Michael Mann and colleagues. But anyway, I don't think this gentleman from St Petersburg will be living in fear of the Senate.

If I were a scientist and I hoped to have any friends left in the world, I sure as heck wouldn't go around challenging the GW orthodoxy.

Scientists can be just as close-minded as the rest of us. The fact that they consider themselves aggressively open-minded in most cases just means they're bulls******g themselves. You can tell because they go all sanctimonious on you when you say something you're not supposed to believe.

All kidding aside, it's been my observation that scientists tend to pay for mistakes with their careers, so they don't step out of line much. It's the exact opposite in my line of work (entrepreneurial capitalism), which rewards risk-taking, and where having made some big mistakes generally gives you credibility points (unless you can prove you didn't learn anything, of course).

is here at the kind of reporting that builds up this feeling that sceptics are persecuted. I see a lot of it. There is nothing factual here except simple disagreement being expressed.

I have been a long time in a scientific environment (with occasional contact with venture capitalists :), and yes, there is tribalism and orthodoxy as elsewhere. But at least there is a means to combat it; proper scientific arguments can be written and propagated, and do eventually win through.

One anecdote - the other day Joliphant put up a graph beloved of AGW sceptics. It dates from 1991, and one of the co-authors has now recanted. The other, Friis-Christensen, has not published much since, and I wondered why. Turns out he has become director of the Danish National Space Center.

One anecdote of non-persecution is poor evidence, but it is more than I am offerred for the persecuted status of AGW sceptics.

Please inform me how climatologists would have the authority to stop him from advancing in space sciences ? I am not saying this as a plus but if I recall one of the NASA directors had come from the Agriculture Dept.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

and situation was very similar to this St Petersburger.

You can be ostracized by a group but experience no ill effects if your life is sufficiently orthogonal to their influence.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

here of ostracism by anyone. Do you have any evidence of scientists whose careers have actually sufferred from their AGW scepticism?

Well it would help if we were talking about a climatologist not a space scientist, astrophysicist no ?
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

Richard Lindzen was an invited speaker to last years AGU conference. Usually ostracized people don't get invited to anything, much less one of the most prestigious conferences for climatologists.

Would that be the conference where he was on the climate change panel ? The one where the 11 member panel concluded the science wasn't settled ?

Gee PJ good of you to introduce that to the debate.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

don't think so - maybe your confusing with a panel organized by the White House to respond to the IPCC 6 years ago. Unless of course you have minutes of this panel.

oops nice try
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

p.s. thanks for dismantling the consensus argument
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

So are you saying there was a panel at the AGU that disputed the consensus? Prove it.

Let's have some fun with quotes from the article..both from Abdussamatov

"The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," he said.

and

"The solar irradiance began to drop in the 1990s, and a minimum will be reached by approximately 2040," Abdussamatov said.

So, is solar irradiance increasing or decreasing? Remember the south pole of Mars has only been melting the last 3 summers (6 years here on Earth).

Which leads us to the other key quote

Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that "the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations. (emphasis mine)

Here are the observations, including before 1990 - you decide. For me I don't see much of a change.

PS if the sun's output is increasing, why is the temperature of the Earth's stratosphere cooling?

______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

Guess your not going to address the actual data, huh? I know it's scary from your position.

Speaking of data or maybe irrelevant data, what ever happened to your featured story from last week with that priceless plot of solar cycle length? Was it a victim of the technical difficulties or did you realize how shaky it was and withdraw?

I realize that using a computer can be a bit trying so let me help.

Logout and use the following URL http://www.redstate.com/blogs/joliphant

______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

Nope still can't see it (in Firefox or IE even after clearing the cache and logging out). Guess I'm one of the luck few still experiencing technical difficulties. If anyone is paying attention maybe they can help me out. But, hey I'm glad it's still there for future reference.

I can get to both of those links once I log out (and don't log in again - is this what you were suggesting Joli?), but once I log in everything disappears.

If I try to access the particular posting I'm interested in and I'm logged-in

http://www.redstate.com/blogs/joliphant/2007/feb/26/a_picture_is_worth_1...

I get:

Access denied
You are not authorized to access this page.

If I'm logged out all is OK.

"For me I don't see much of a change."

You're arguing that we need to take drastic economic actions due to a probable change of 0.6 degrees (+ or - 0.2 degrees) over the past 120 YEARS and you're arguing that the Mars data doesn't count because it doesn't change enough?

Unbelievable!!!

Be a little consistent will you?

Socialism doesn't work. It looks nice on paper, but it's been tried and it's failed miserably every time (usually accompanied by widespread death and suffering).
Proud member of the V.R.W.C.

in the sun's output from the observations (i.e. measurements here on Earth for the last 30 years), do you? If you do please enlighten me.

 
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