Sen-MD: Democrats marginalizing black voters
Racialized politics may cost Democrats Senate seat
By Adam C Posted in Archived — Comments (6) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
The Democratic primary takes place on September 12th. The most recent poll (8/18-8/25) from Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies shows the race is still polarized along racial lines*. This poll was taken over a week which is poor form as it misses changes over that time, but the baseline conclusion is in line with other polls of the general race. Note also that the sample is 56D, 32R which seems slightly more Democratic than I expect in MD.
Cardin 43
Mfume 30
Cardin 44
Steele 39
Mfume 38
Steele 42
Those horse-race numbers aren't particularly surprising although recent primary polls have shown the race in the margin of error. The interesting numbers are in the internals. See below:
Among white voters, Cardin leads Mfume 54-14. Among black voters Mfume leads, 68-19. Note that almost a third of white voters are undecided while only 13% of black voters are still making up their minds, which should help Cardin if they break along the same racial lines.
More importantly for Republicans, the racialized Democratic primary has given Republican Michael Steele a chance to win over disappointed Democrats. First, if Cardin wins. Then Lt. Gov. Steele is winning 23% of the black vote (to Cardin's 60%) but only a slim plurality of the white vote 44-39. Mr. Steele loses 10% of Republicans and splits Indie voters 34-34 in that case.
If Mfume pulls of the upset, Steele loses his gains in the black community as Mfume leads 67-8 (with 25% undecided). However, Steele picks up a strong lead in the white community 53-29. Mfume's rabid liberalism scares off all but 3% of Republicans and he loses ground among Indies which Steele leads 38-24.
So if Cardin wins, Steele will emphasize Simmons' endorsement. He will focus on exploiting the fact that Democrats continue to rely on a supermajority of black voters without considering black politicians vying for higher office. Specifically, many in the black community noticed how top Democrats refrained from endorsing Mfume when he was the only candidate in the race. Those same leaders immediately swarmed to Cardin after his declaration. These actions are not without consequence. Steele will try to win over these black voters who are often young and not tied to the Democratic Party as much as their parents. And if he is successful, he may open the door for more competitive elections in MD in the future.
If Mfume wins, Steele will emphasize his moderate credentials. he will focus on his business background compared to Mfume's political one. Steele will present himself as an upstanding family man who is competent enough to serve in the august Senate. The contrast to Mfume's past of illegitimate children and sexual harassment of employees at the NAACP will be noticed by many of the suburban swing voters who are already suspicious of Mfume's liberal antics.
Either way, there is a path for Lt. Gov. Steele to follow that will have a reasonable chance of winning in a left-of-center state. Those who follow this race closely know that Steele is better off with Mfume as his opponent. But he is within the margin of error of both opponents.
*Hotline reporting behind subscription wall.
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Sen-MD: Democrats marginalizing black voters 6 Comments (0 topical, 6 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
On one hand, I want Mfume to win the D primary so Steele has a better shot at winning.
On the other hand, I want Cardin to win their primary for a longer term goal of breaking the strangle hold on the black vote (which will be good for the black community as well).
The best situation I can imagine is that Cardin narrowly wins the primary and Mfume refuses to endorse him (not necessarily endorsing Steele, but doing so defacto). Then in the general election, Steele beats Cardin.
Mfume and Cardin have led a pretty clean race against each other, and my guess is the loser will pledge his support to the winner.
What this poll doesn't take into account is the very large primary pool for the democrats. There are at least 15 vying for the senate seat. Most of them are white suburbanites who will sap votes from Carding.
Thats good news for us, because if Mfume wins, this race could easily go to Steele. Against Cardin, it will be very difficult, especially if Mfume, Wynn, Cummings, and other prominent local Black democrats give their support on the campaign trail to Cardin.
Blue Crabs are nice, but everyone knows they are best when they are bright RED!
...is do what he apparently did in 2002.
Put a big cutout of himself at the polls in black precincts, with the words "Make History"
I'm becoming increasingly bullish on the chances of 3 Republican challengers: Michael Steele (MD), Michael Bouchard (MI), and Tom Kean Jr (NJ). Mike McGavick (WA) seems a phenomenal candidate for Washington state, but I'm worried that the state is just too liberal and their election institutions too corrupt to push him over the threshhold.
If Conrad Burns, Jim Talent, and Mike DeWine can just hold on, this may not be such a bad year for us in the Senate. If Rick Santorum makes a miracle comeback, it may end up being a very, very good year - especially with the Democrats already down 1 in Connecticut. :-)
It seems that Democratic endorsements are following the same racial lines. Now that Wynn (D-MD) and Cummings (D-MD) have endorsed Mfume, the Hill notes that House Dems "have split along racial lines" excepting only Van Hollen (D-MD), who "has not given money to either candidate."
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