The Israel Paradox: A leader with a 9% approval rating seeks to give away the store

And the Parliament is squarely behind him

By Jeff Emanuel Posted in Comments (21) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

TEL AVIV, ISRAEL – A major idiosyncrasy (to Americans) of Israeli politics is the fact that, though Israeli President Prime Minister Ehud Olmert currently enjoys an approval rating solidly in the single digits, he is perhaps more secure in his position at the top of the Israeli government than he has been at any time in his tenure as Prime Minister. Presiding over a broad coalition of parliamentarians, Olmert is sticking to his guns (as unapt a metaphor as can possibly be applied here) and is doing his best to reinvigorate the Middle East “peace” process by repeating mistakes that made Israel’s position so precarious in the first place.

As Israel’s more dour version of Ann Coulter, Caroline Glick, said in a recent Jerusalem Post column, “Olmert and his ministers pursue diplomatic and security goals that bear no relation to the regional and global realities facing Israel.” The man whom few expected to make it through last year’s disaster of a “war” (the 33-day battle with the Iranian proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon) is continuing down the path that not only endangered Israel’s national security and led, in part, to that war in the first place, but that caused him to be looked at as a farce of a leader by over 90% of his own population.

Rebuilding an Arab newspaper building hit by rockets. On the left, you can see the virtually unblemished home of the two Arab Christian grandparents killed, while shepherding their grandchildren to safety, by ball bearings with which the rocket was filled. More here.
(photo © Jeff Emanuel 2007)

A year ago, during that war, Olmert said that Hezbollah could “never threaten this nation that it will fire missiles at it, because this nation is contending with these missiles and beating them” – also claiming that the IDF “had destroyed all of Hezbollah’s military infrastructures in south Lebanon” – the day before 231 rockets and missiles rained on the small Jewish state, marking the Iranian-armed group’s largest bombardment to date. Not outwardly rattled by the onslaught, Olmert pressed on with his dovish policies, saying that the next step would be a unilateral withdrawal from Judea and Samaria – the two territories on Israel’s eastern border (across from the country’s nine-mile-wide “narrow waist”) which currently serve as buffers between Palestinian rockets and the civilian populations of Israel’s major cities.

Read on . . .

Amazingly, Olmert then (as now) did not comprehend the obvious: the conflict he then sought, and now seeks, to dampen through unilateral concession was escalated to its current scale by the very policy he is currently advocating. In the Gaza Strip, Israel (under Ariel Sharon) unilaterally withdrew to the borders of the town of Sederot, leaving the Palestinians there to their own devices (although with power still provided to the territory by a southern Israeli power plant); under Olmert last November, a cease-fire agreement was reached between the two entities.

Just some of the hundreds of homemade (water pipe, rebar, soldered fins, ball bearings/nails, and explosive) rockets indiscriminantly fired from Gaza into the civilian town of Sederot on a daily basis.

This collection, at the Sederot police station, is of rockets which have landed in the city.
More here.
(photo © Jeff Emanuel 2007)

The result? Since the cease-fire was agreed to, the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have launched over 330 homemade Qassam rockets (fashioned from water pipes – no wonder Gaza has no infrastructure – and rebar, and filled with nails and ball bearings) at Sederot – a town populated entirely by civilians – as well as at the plant which provides Gaza with its power. Further, in June of last year a tunnel from the Strip to an outpost on the border was completed (a three-year project), which allowed Hamas terrorists to infiltrate IDF defenses and to kidnap Cpl. Gilad Shalit. Over a year later, Shalit is still being held captive.

Olmert’s detachment from reality is palpable. In the south, he has released funds to the Fatah party, which is no longer in power after the dual blows of their loss to Hamas in an election last year, and their being thrown off of Gaza Strip high rises by the same in a recent uprising. In the north and east, he says, “live millions of people who want tranquility, a quality of life and quiet – just like we do.”

This is, of course, an entirely wrongheaded point of view, and is one which Americans such as Condoleezza Rice are guilty of holding, as well. The attributing of Western ideals and values to a foreign population is entirely erroneous, and is, in large part, the source of many of the ills not only in Palestine, but in areas like Iraq, as well.

The Mouse "Farfur" discusses with a Palestininan child the need to kill all Jews. From Palestinian state television.
(Under threat of a lawsuit from Disney, the show's creators had Farfur murdered by Jews and replaced by a Jihadi bumblebee).

A brief look at Palestinian state television will show just how different the Palestinians’ view of “quality of life” is from Americans’ and Israelis’. The glorification of suicide bombing, the triumphant refrain of “how many Jews did you kill?,” and the constant drumbeat of self-sacrifice in the act of murdering Israelis as a glory in itself – on children’s programming – is standard fare on both Hamas and Fatah-funded state television – and all of this is backed by the growing specter of Mahmoud “A World Without Israel” Ahmadinejad’s potentially nuclear Iran.

While Iran is, to many, a case in and of itself, the sense among the reality-based Israeli leadership is that it is the engine driving the Jewish state’s ever-growing security problems. Katyusha rockets, small arms, and Korean-designed surface-to-surface missiles all reach both Hamas and Hezbollah via the Persian state, and others in the area – such as Syria and Egypt – are falling further under its influence, as well.

Likhud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu explains the Iranian nuclear threat
(photo © Jeff Emanuel 2007)

“Iran is the problem,” Likhud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu told me when we sat down for a few minutes recently. “Either the US takes care of them or we do. But they can’t be allowed to continue.”

Dan Diker, a senior policy analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (headed by former Ambassador Dore Gold), had a similar view. As he told me, “Iran is the engine driving the current battle. They are funding our enemies, equipping them, and – in an unprecedented move – they have publicly called for the destruction of a fellow United Nations member state. And nothing is being said!”

Diker presented a map, assembled by his staff with the JCPA’s Defensible Borders Project, which showed the potentially deadly outcome of the combination of further unilateral withdrawal to the so-called “1967 borders” and the modern, far-reaching weapons that Iran has provided to the Palestinian “resistance.”

Olmert’s Defense Minister, former PM Ehud Barak, recently unveiled a plan to put in place a “missile defense” system which he envisions as being able to stop anything from ballistic missiles to homemade Qassam rockets – a sheer fantasy at best – which he claims will make vacating Judea, Samaria, and the Golan Heights both painless and danger-free. However, in presenting this, he glosses over the fact – shown by last year’s Lebanon “war,” in which the cross-bay city of Haifa was bombarded with missiles and with Katyusha rockets from a territory unilaterally abandoned by Israel (under Barak) in 2000 – that territory must be held as a buffer before any such defense can even begin to be put in place.

As Ambassador Gold put it, “We cannot give up Jerusalem, and we cannot give up our presence in the territories. Uprooting the settlers [from the areas near Gaza] was painful enough; we cannot put our population in further jeopardy by eliminating the one thing that keeps us most safe – our presence in those areas, both as security and as a deterrent to attack.”

Such sense appears to be falling on deaf ears with regard to Olmert and his ‘coalition.’ When meeting with her in Jerusalem, I asked his spokesperson, Miri Eisen, what her response would be to those who say that unilaterally making concessions is a well-known sign of weakness to Israel’s opponents, and, like in Lebanon and Gaza, would serve only to embolden the fighters to strike harder.

Her response? “We know that it is not weak, because we know that there is strength in being able to make concessions even when it has not worked before.”

All in all, that is not overly encouraging.

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The Israel Paradox: A leader with a 9% approval rating seeks to give away the store 21 Comments (0 topical, 21 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »

Olmert is the PM, not the president (as in the second line)

I had it right from the 4th line on. President is, of course, Shimon Peres.

Current Israeli policy is absolutely going nowhere. Ofcourse, it is up to the Israeli's to elect their leaders - something that's pretty rare in that neighbourhood - but one cannot help longing for quick new elections and a new government by Netanyahu. Seeing what kind of near-surrender Barak offered in the past I've little hope for improvements coming from that quarter.

Short of a change of leadership, one would hope for the one thing governments usually excel at: inaction. Israel seems to enjoy relative calm only due to palestinians who are too busy among themselves and the wall. Olmert has absolutely no capacity left to do pro-active stuff like giving Hamas a real bloody nose or strike at Iran after the fiasco in Lebanon. His options are reduced to those actions - consessions - that can only make things worse. Sadly, he seems hell-bent on doing just that.

In all, it's not a good time for Israel.

...you stated, Conservative in exile, :

" Israel seems to enjoy relative calm ..."

And there is the old adage...the calm before the storm. Olmert's actions, non-actions and behavior have not gone unnoticed by Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. The storm is coming and it will be a back-breaker.

Isn't it ironic? We have a President here in the United States, who up until recently mustered some of the lowest accetance levels in polls ever due to his staunch aggressive foreign policy and unbending will towards islamofascism and on the other extreme, we have a leader of Israel, who has gone down the complete opposite path of appeasement and caving ...only to yield approval numbers even less than the POTUS.

Once the Jihad storm hits Israel, Olmert will be removed from office - at least one can only hope for that result.

Is why he hasn't already been removed.
In a Parliamentary system, you can run a vote of No Confidence to get rid of the current PM and his government and then run lections to replace them.
With 9% approval ratings, it's a wonder they haven't already done so...

"It's a book about a man who doesn't know he's about to die, and then dies...
...But if the man does know he's going to die and dies anyway. Dies, dies willing, knowing he can stop it, then...
Well, isn't that the type of man you want to keep alive?"
Karen Eiffel, Stranger Than Fiction

what we have been discussing, and as one poster pointed out, many that would vote for no confidence, would themselves be voted out of office with new elections. Basically, while there is absolutely no popular support for his removal there is also no political will to remove him. In other words, different country, but we have politics as usual.

"The nine most dangerous words in the English language are 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help'"

Ronald Reagan

www.proprietornation.blogspot.com

"It's a book about a man who doesn't know he's about to die, and then dies...
...But if the man does know he's going to die and dies anyway. Dies, dies willing, knowing he can stop it, then...
Well, isn't that the type of man you want to keep alive?"
Karen Eiffel, Stranger Than Fiction

all of this is quite interesting. A friend of mine pointed out that giving up the Golan Heights is strategic suicide since giving up the mountains of Golan Heights would allow our enemies to enjoy the higher plains. In fact, that is the sole purpose of holding on to the Heights, so that Israel not her enemies can reach the higher ground.

That said, you never explained how and why an individual with 9% approval ratings can be so secure in his position. They are a parliamentary system. Are you saying he would survive a no confidence vote with such abysmal approval ratings.

"The nine most dangerous words in the English language are 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help'"

Ronald Reagan

www.proprietornation.blogspot.com

I must admit that what new I get about Israel comes mainly filitered through the MSM, but the answer to the question how Olmert can hang on to his position is that no-one seems eager to have elections, cause Olmert won't be the only one who'll loose.

Israel has been hit by scandal after scandal, and I specualte that most of Olmert's competitors have almost equally abysmal approval ratings. Elections right now would shake up the Knesset badly, but a majority doesn't seem to fancy a gamble on the outcome. Starting a new party isn't that hard in the Israeli system and while that process usually means the same people on a different slate, this time around it may result in an awful lot of politicians being out of a job.

I understand you. Olmert is not up for no confidence because a new election means most of the Knesset is thrown out with him.

Sad, fascinating and down right cynical.

"My job and Party or my Country?
"My Job and Party or my country?
"My JOB and PARTY or my country?
"MY Job and Party or my... Oh hell. There's not even any question..."

"It's a book about a man who doesn't know he's about to die, and then dies...
...But if the man does know he's going to die and dies anyway. Dies, dies willing, knowing he can stop it, then...
Well, isn't that the type of man you want to keep alive?"
Karen Eiffel, Stranger Than Fiction

...the "governing coalition." While the run-of-the-mill Israelis - the 'οι πολλοι, if you will - have no love whatsoever for Olmert, such sentiment does not translate to the Knesset, where as broad a group of legislators is in his corner as has been seen in recent memory.

As so often happens, the will of the people is not what is reflected by their representatives; rather, the representatives reflect their own interests, and Olmert, while giving away the security of Israel (something which is applauded by the majority Kadima party and the rest of the Left in Israel), has made concessions on every previously-held "core" belief, to every inch of the spectrum but the tiny minority that is the righty faction, in order to gain the temporary allegiance of an amazingly large number of Parliamentarians.

Each of these people knows that Olmert is a ragdoll that they can run roughshod over; however, in the short term, the payoff for him is too tantalizing to give up.

It's a case of choosing to please as many "important" people as possible over choosing to have any core beliefs and principles whatsoever - and Olmert has chosen that way as the price of his remaining in an office he has long been known to be unfit for.

Olmert has given the Iranian's (via Hezbolla) an ability to show Israel is vulnerable. This is and will continue to be used against them, resulting in increased aggression. Further territorial concessions will only reinforce that mindset.

In temperance, I will say that Olmert may stumble into a situation where Iran and Fatah are increasingly at odds with each other. That may yield some benefit, albeit accidental.Any opposition, especially from Arab neighbors will help pause Iran.

What I can not believe is it seems they have forgotten about Shalit. What is your sense on that, et al from the populace?

Thanks for reminding us what real reporting looks like.
"Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori"
Contributor to The Minority Report

Israel isn't weak and vulnerable Olmert is. He will be gone soon enough. Israel will never again elect someone with little military experience. The next time there is war hopefully Olmert is gone and the outcome will be dramatically different.

As I understand it, the majority coalition elects the PM. Indeed, I believe that voters don't actually select the individual ministers, the party wins a certain number of seats and ministers are seated based on their position on that list. If they buck their leaders by a no-confidence motion, their party leaders may retalitate by moving them down the list, which means that they may get thrown out if their part loses seats in a new election. (I'm open to correction if I've misinterpreted the process.)

Right now, it seems most Knesset members are more interested in saving their political necks than in the good of the country (dangerously similar to the attitude of many U.S. Congress critters).

And Rightly So!

You got the process right. Israel has proportional representation based on party lists, which often means a politician can easily be thrown out by his own party establishment (no primary needed, at most a vote of party members approving of the party list).

Jeff wrote above that obtaining influence and the Israeli version of pork (politicians do have a limited but usually loyal following among some specific groups of voters) also figures largely in it. Which sounds familiar as well, right?

It's an interesting arguement but I'm curious about your use of language. Why refer to the "so called 1967 borders"? Surely the borders as they existed in 1967 are simply a fact? Contrast that with your unqualified use of "Judea and Samaria" names which have had no real social or geographical meaning for thousands of years. Since so many of the problems of the region derive from varied versions of its history shouldn't we all take care of the language we use? At the very least if the (factual) 1967 borders are "so-called" shouldn't the mythical "Judea and Samaria" be described in the same way?

That's all you got out of the whole story Jeff wrote. If your trying to say something just spit it out.

"The only way to negotiate with your enemy, is with your knee on his chest and your knife at his throat." - Anon.

You also think we should recognize the 'humanitarian' work that Hamas and Fatah do?

Hooray!

(1) I say "so-called 1967 borders" because that name is a misnomer. That border was actually enshrined into law in 1948; however, it is referred to internationally as the 1967 border because that is when the boundaries - after the 1949 "War for Independence," as the Israelis call it - regressed to their original location.

(2) Look at a little history. The names "Judea" and "Samaria" have been around a couple thousand years longer than you seem to realize.

as well as with the soldiers abducted in South Lebanon.

Over a year later, Shalit is still being held captive.

 
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