Breaking: Sudden resignation of Japanese PM Shinzo Abe.

With a photo of what the Japanese are calling a "destroyer" beneath the fold, just because.

By Moe Lane Posted in Comments (8) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

A little foreign news for your Wednesday morning:

Japan PM Abe quits after year of scandal
By Yoshiyasu Shida

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe abruptly announced his resignation on Wednesday after a year in power dogged by scandals, an election rout and a crisis over Japan's support for U.S.-led operations in Afghanistan.

The hawkish Abe, who took office promising to boost Japan's global security profile, had seen his clout dwindle after a drubbing in upper house elections in July, but the announcement came as a bolt out of the blue.

What does it mean? A lot of punditry from people only vaguely aware of the players and issues. Note that while I am not excluding myself from that snide observation, I do exclude Ed Morrissey.

Read on.

Among other things, Ed's slightly worried about what the North Koreans are going to do in response, and... I am too, sort of. The Kim regime has a habit of seizing upon excuses to break off negotiations and/or reneging on agreements, and if they're inclined to go back on the recent disarmament agreement a change in the Japanese government would be as sleazy a rationalization as any, I suppose. So that's why the "sort of": I'm more concerned with whether North Korea will live up to its word than the actual excuse that they might use to go back on it.

Moving along... well. Japan's an interesting sort of country, huh? - Get used to that subtext; you'll probably be hearing it a lot. To summarize the article, what's apparently going on is that the Prime Minister's party controls one house of Parliament, the opposition is now controlling the other, and there's deadlock a go-go (People who actually know something about Japanese politics above the Wikipedia level are welcome to leave comments, by the way). PM Abe's departure may make it easier for the ruling party to keep supporting Japan's naval refueling role in Afghanistan. The opposition is claiming that such a role is not authorized by the UN, and you may believe as much of that protestation as you care to. Mind you, all of this assumes that the argument over refueling is the flash point here, instead of, say, tax evasion.

Shorter Moe Lane: there's something going on, but bless me if it isn't all a little murky.

So, what are going to be the long-term changes? Possibly not all that many. The Japanese are quietly getting back into the power-projection business - hold on, here's that photo I promised:

She's big-boned

That's what the Maritime Self Defense Force likes to call a "helicopter carrying destroyer" (image from that link), while the rest of the world prefers "tricked-out Invincible-class carriers". Strategy Page did an article on the subject, although the tonnage numbers are different (although that may be the usual confusion between metric and real units of measurement). Any which way you look at it, the Japanese wouldn't be building these suckers if they didn't think that they'd need them - or, for that matter, if they didn't think that we'd need them. A change in administration over there is unlikely to seriously affect our defense relationship with Japan. For that matter, upon reflection it may not even affect the refueling schedule for the Afghanistan mission.

Then again, I do not even pretend to be an expert on Japanese domestic policy. Ah, the Internet: bringing you authoritative, confident WAGs since 1972.

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Breaking: Sudden resignation of Japanese PM Shinzo Abe. 8 Comments (0 topical, 8 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »

The fact that PM Koizumi was in office forever was the anomaly in Japanese politics. A musical chairs of LDP prime ministers would mean we're back to normal.

And yeah, that photo is a big part of Koizumi's legacy. As far as I can tell, what he did during his rule was gradually, slowly expand the boundaries of what kind of military and patriotic activity is acceptable to the Japanese public.

Abe and his cabinet were taken down by the usual corruption of one party rule, combined with some people trying to speed up Japan's rearmament more than the Japanese public's pacifist tendencies will allow.

So we'll see a new PM, a new cabinet, and probably a new resignation in a year or so, thanks to the same old corruption of one party rule.

And personally I'd rather it stay that way. The Liberal Democrats are the one major party interested in Japanese rearmament. For crying out loud, the Social Democratic party leader got into an argument with German Chancellor Merkel during her visit, over a Japanese refueling mission in the Indian ocean in support of NATO in Afghanistan..

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may try to answer the following questions. Cause like Moe, I don't qualify. But strangely enough, I haven't seen these questions asked and answered so far, while the news has been in for the better part of a day. (want real hot news? Russia's PM is out as well)

Japanese politics 201:
- since there political deadlock is reported, how does the Japanese system adresses it? We just had elections for part of the upper house, IIRC the next part isn't due for a few years, so that leaves the lower house an the PM as possible venues for change, right?
- If it's the lower house, will we see new elections (polls please) or an expanded coalition (which might serve to give an upper house majority again)
- If it's (just) the PM, will replacing one person make much of a difference, both internally and externally? When Koizumi left and Abe came in, it didn't matter much externally, except for the perpetual war history issue. No idea about internally, and it were mainly internal problems that brought us here, if the reporting is correct.
- Who's the heir apparent? Or is there none, and will Japan be subjected to a good ol' dose of party infighting? Any noteworhty people waiting for an opportunity?

Bonusquestion: predict if (and if yes, when, and if not, why) Japan will be ordering actual planes for those 'Destroyers'.

The Japanese government has assumed a support role for the United States military that includes a very substantial "submarine warfare" role to counter the growing Chinese threat. Under the Japanese constitution, their military is allowed to engage in anti-submarine warfare activities unabated. The picture you are seeing is a manifestation of that capability to much increased levels. We have all seen "The Hunt for Red October" and the use of aircraft and helicopters to hunt submarines in that movie. Though, like any movie, the details are warped to make a good movie, the principle of using aircraft for this activity is still accurate.

Yes, the images of Japanese carriers from WWII still sends chills because of their effectiveness, but I can assure you that they would not be building it without the US being consulted, and it fit into a "constitutionally" permitted role.

Do I have any special knowledge about this matter? No, I do not. What I do know is based upon what I learned while stationed there. What I learned while I was there includes what they have been doing (publicly) and what they are permitted to do (constitutionally). If you are in Japan, this is common fare for the news to discuss these very matters because of the political ramifications involved.

Take this for what it is worth. It is my thinking on the situation on the ship.

As far as the resignation is concerned, it is customary to accept responsibility for anything that goes wrong by resigning. I do believe that something may have gone terribly wrong somewhere and it just has not hit the news yet, and he is already accepting responsibility for it and not waiting for the PR disaster to break in the news.

Wubbies World, MSgt, USAF (Retired):
public static void main(String[] args) {
System.out.println("An argument is a sequence of statements aimed at demonstrating the truth of an assertion.); }

Well, I'm sure it'd give me a chill if I saw it in person, because it's an amazing piece of engineering, but it doesn't make me blink to think of Japan rearming fully.

Contrary to PRC and DPRK propaganda, the Japan of today isn't the Japan of 70 years ago. The people of Japan control their government now, and they have grown to love peace and prosperity. A fully re-armed Japan would be a great center of peace for the region.

And yeah, I'm sure the LDP has come up with ways to reinterpret Article 9 to allow these carriers, heh, the same way they reinterpreted Article 9 to allow the JSDF to begin with.

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...on the drawing board, designed in such a way that they conform to Article 9.

We'll live to see them, and when we do, they'll be as advanced and as capable as any ship afloat.

The Japanese government understands that it must keep the Straits of Malacca open and the Chinese from fully investing Taiwan. This is a matter of Japanese national security and prosperity. Japan's independence cannot exist at the sufferance of Beijing. The U.S. is one thing; the Americans are not a local, historic, Asian enemy.

The Chinese are another thing altogether.

"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill

My inner WW2 history geek cannot help but squee in delight at the notion of proper Japanese carriers flying the F-35.

of competing factions, and the various faction leaders "get their turn" as Prime Minister when the time is right. The factions are more personal than ideological, sort of like the old boss-run machines of the pre-McGovern Democratic party in the US.

Unlike the US, though, where it takes an act of God to get a politician to resign, resignations are part of the political culture and facilitate the desired rotation of faction leaders. Another scandal, a new PM, another scandal, a new PM-yada, yada, yada!

I thought our response to the whole Korean Nuke test should have been to give Japan one of our Carriers.

Problem solved *wink*

 
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