It's Giuliani Time...
An unfair, yet inevitable title for this CPAC piece.
By Moe Lane Posted in Breaking News | CPAC — Comments (18) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
We're finally back up and ready to talk about the Giuliani speech - which is a strong contender for the most important speech that will be made here. It wasn't a home run speech - quite - but Rudy's rivals needed for it to be a pop fly.
It wasn't.
Read on.
Giuliani’s speech is interesting on what he is and what he is not talking about. It’s all about national security, lowering taxes and how he’s like both Ronald Reagan and Abraham Lincoln (if you’re wondering, that last is a reference to George W Bush, who is likewise prone to making unpopular decisions). It wasn’t about social issues, except as part of a general “you can agree with me or not”. Well, not precisely: he’s down on welfare, up on education and likes accountability.
Where Giuliani’s speech was strong, it was strong. He hammered home the point of the need to make decisions - over and over again - and there was a certain rustle through the audience clustered around the television when he talked about the threat of Islamic terrorism. He wasn't shrill, surprisingly candid about his failures and mistakes involving reforming the NYC school system and showed a strong sense of humor. The overall tone was positive - possibly a touch too positive for those looking for someone to blame for past counterterrorism failures, but still definitely high road.
Will it work? Well, it was a good speech, and well received – we couldn’t get in, it was so crowded. And that's 'the fire marshalls wouldn't let anybody else in' crowded; the bloggers ended up clustered around a CCTV screen, alongside a whole other bunch of people. The former mayor is fortunate in that the two major things that he is known for are both extremely positive. If Giuliani can get the nomination, he probably will be able to keep the social conservatives happy enough – or from being too unhappy, which is not quite the same thing.
If.
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It's Giuliani Time... 18 Comments (0 topical, 18 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I keep getting the feeling that:
1) The SoCons definitely would prefer somebody else (obviously)
2) He's going to have to count on getting considerably less support from that voting bloc as GWB did in (particularly) 2004 and (to a lesser extent) 2000.
3) I don't think, ultimately, that they're going to be so turned off by him to do something rash (3rd party, vote Democrat, etc.) en masse.
SoCons will not vote for a Dem for President. They might vote for a 3rd party, except there will be no credible 3rd party candidate for them, and a Libertarian doesn't count as credible.
They will have two choices if Rudy is the nominee, vote against the Democrat (whose position on social issues will make Rudy look like a CONSERVATIVE) or stay home.
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Congressmen who willfully take actions during wartime that damage morale and undermine the military are saboteurs and should be arrested, exiled, or hanged. — J. Michael Waller
I realize they aren't going to vote for Democrats. I probably should have said "stay home." And I do think a lot of SoCons will stay home or otherwise vote for any 3rd party candidate they can find who lines up with them socially.
However, I do think that HRC has made some effort to make herself more palatable to SoCons -- probably on the expectation that either Rudy or McCain would be the nominee and SoCons may be looking for an option.
There's no question that some significant number of SoCons will not vote for Giuliani under any circumstances. To do so would be tantamount to having blood on their hands. And I understand that.
What is a question is how many of them there will be and how organized and mobilized such a movement would become -- which is a question related to how close the election will be and how much influence they're going to be able to have.
that Rudy would likely be more acceptable to the SoCons than McCain is to the base in general. I'll admit that's just guesswork on my part, and I wouldn't vote for McCain if Satan was heading the Dem ticket, but I think Rudy can navigate the shoals and possibly pick up significant SoCon support. Note: "can" not necessarily "will".
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Congressmen who willfully take actions during wartime that damage morale and undermine the military are saboteurs and should be arrested, exiled, or hanged. — J. Michael Waller
...that a third-party candidate will run to fill the Social Conservative gap, if Rudy wins the nomination? And what effect would that have in the general election if the choices were, say, Rudy and Hillary?
They would have to line up solid support from the pro-life movement and from folks who support something like FMA. Major support from religious groups would also be necessary.
Then there's money. No candidate is likely to get major money from the above. They will be stuck with taking federal funds.
Then there's the reality that the candidate they support is NOT going to win and will likely cost the Republican POTUS candidate the election. It's also likely that there will be some spill over in House and Senate races. I can see a third party SoCon candidate providing the Dems with the WH and maybe a fillibuster proof Senate and a bigger majority in the House.
Bottom line for the SoCons, they lose all credibility with the Republican Party for a loooooong time.
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Congressmen who willfully take actions during wartime that damage morale and undermine the military are saboteurs and should be arrested, exiled, or hanged. — J. Michael Waller
...the SoCons are a crucial Republican constituency. And, what's more, they know how important a constituency they are. In fact, there's something of a codependency going on there between the SoCons -- who are, absolutely, conservative before they're Republican -- and the GOP.
I don't think the Republican Party has the luxury of waving goodbye to social conservatives....anymore than the social conservatives have of waving goodbye to the Republican Party. And I think that's their conundrum with something like this.
Personally, I think the smart move for them (and they are smart people, contrary to the image portrayed of them by the media) would be withhold their support for a Giuliani until they can receive some assurances from him (VP pick, some pledges on judicial nominations, etc.). I don't think this needs to be done right out in the open -- but with movement leaders.
Once those assurances are received, they can either remain silent and out of the way or even become lukewarm supporters.
I have to imagine that the party leaders, the Giuliani camp, and leaders from the SoCon movement have either already begun talking this out or will as soon as it becomes apparent (if it does) that Giuliani will win the nomination.
In any case, I wouldn't be so blithe about a potential split between SoCons and the Republican Party. No shortage of people have speculated that a political realignment is underway and that it's not hard to imagine a new coalition existing of religious conservatives and fiscal liberals.
Rudy reached into his deep pocket of executive experience at CPAC to tell us that he knows the importance of the USA PATRIOT Act and the NSA surveillance program because he once used wiretaps to prosecute members of the Gambino crime family.
What's next? Are we going to get a speech on how we need to sign the Kyoto protocol beacause he witnessed first hand the effect that graffiti aerosols had on the air quality of New York city.
Before I sign on to anyone's campaign.
Any chance that we will be able to see this speech? It was a bad, bad thing for bloggers to be left out. Any of Rudy's people try reaching out to RS or the blogs in general?
one sounds very negative and the other like getting in was a big deal, as Moe by my read made it sound like the place was packed...
Well done is better than well said. —Benjamin Franklin
I couldn't get in, Joyner of OTB couldn't get in, Captain Ed couldn't get in... not to contradict any of my illustrious cobloggers, but there was some buzz on this one.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC.
for me this is good news, I'm a big fan of his for several reasons, his social views not being one of them but as I keep saying with the threat I think this nation faces those are the "little things", but hey that's just for me.
Again thanks for the clarification.
Well done is better than well said. —Benjamin Franklin
that the title you chose drives the liberals nuts here in NY.
The liberals despised his crackdown on violent crime - even though it made both rich and poor neighborhoods safer. Just mention that title and the libs here start to spittle and yelp.
"Enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm." -- James Madison
Rudy in drag? Kissing a man? You don't think even Obama would know how to use that in an ad? Even Edwards would have to use it. Hillary? She'd plaster it and pictures of Bernie Kerik, and Rudy's mistress, and the gay couple that Rudy shacked up with after his divorce all over the airwaves.
Rudy has way too much baggage and is waaaaaay to liberal. Pro gun control, pro-choice, pro-gay rights and civil unions, etc. Pro drag queens too it seems.
Any chance you've got an "issue" you don't like Rudy's stance on or are just SOOOOOO freaked out with the video that your brain (assuming you have one) shut down?
Go take your meds, come back when you've calmed down.
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Congressmen who willfully take actions during wartime that damage morale and undermine the military are saboteurs and should be arrested, exiled, or hanged. — J. Michael Waller
It sounds about what I expected from his chat, but the fire marshal crowded part? Was it a small room, or was it a sense that people are looking for someone to "step up" and were giving him the chance, or perhaps the rope?
Well done is better than well said. —Benjamin Franklin