Iraq's Economy Thrives - estimated 13% growth this year!
capitalism rules
By Mark Kilmer Posted in Economy — Comments (8) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Look what news Newsweek dragged in:
Civil war or not, Iraq has an economy, and—mother of all surprises—it's doing remarkably well. Real estate is booming. Construction, retail and wholesale trade sectors are healthy, too, according to a report by Global Insight in London. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce reports 34,000 registered companies in Iraq, up from 8,000 three years ago. Sales of secondhand cars, televisions and mobile phones have all risen sharply. Estimates vary, but one from Global Insight puts GDP growth at 17 percent last year and projects 13 percent for 2006.
The caveats and disclaimers are multiple: "It may sound unreal, given the daily images of carnage and chaos… Despite employees kidnapped, cell-phone towers bombed, storefronts shot up and a huge security budget… Civil war or not… Iraq is a crippled nation growing on the financial equivalent of steroids." It doesn't fit the model, but it has to be explained. The infotainment journal accomplishes this by explaining that security is improving in the south, where the oilfields can be found.
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Security doesn't improve in a civil war, does it? No, but we've long since established that the civil war exists primarily in Baghdad.
[T]here's a vibrancy at the grass roots that is invisible in most international coverage of Iraq. Partly it's the trickle-down effect. However it's spent, whether on security or something else, money circulates. Nor are ordinary Iraqis themselves short on cash. After so many years of living under sanctions, with little to consume, many built up considerable nest eggs—which they are now spending. That's boosted economic activity, particularly in retail. Imported goods have grown increasingly affordable, thanks to the elimination of tariffs and trade barriers. Salaries have gone up more than 100 percent since the fall of Saddam, and income-tax cuts (from 45 percent to just 15 percent) have put more cash in Iraqi pockets.
This is not a quagmire, another Vietnam, a full-scale civil war. This is capitalism, and I thank Newsweek for letting us know. I also concur in this conclusion:
[R]eal progress won't be seen until the security situation clears up.
They had written that this "goes without saying," but it really does need to be said. Even now, though, Iraq is alive.
[NOTE: Erick blames Bush. Me, too.]
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Iraq's Economy Thrives - estimated 13% growth this year! 8 Comments (0 topical, 8 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
is so powerful that the whole world is already improving, and they have not even taken over Congress yet. I could have sworn I saw a headline about the rising stockmarket recently, although that seems far-fetched.
The economy, stupid, just knew that Clinton (Bill) was coming, so it got better before he even got there.
Obviously the point about the Baghdad-centric nature of the violence is the main one, but there's also a lesson here about Saddam-style tyranny: it's so bad that even anarchy in some parts of the country and civil war in others is preferable.
Parts of Iraq are a Hobbesian nightmare where a man can earn only so much as he can protect by force of arms - but even that is better than the certainty that whatever you build can be seized by an all-powerful state.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
would happen when Ahmed got a little jealous that Mohammed next store had a nicer car. It's human nature. We strive to improve the lot of our families. It makes magical things happen.
Those same people who are too apathetic to respond to Ahmadinejad with more than a yawn will respond to growth in the neighborhood when they see it. They will yearn for it.
This is good news. Really good.
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We would also like to know your advice for somebody like my daughter, who's going to graduate in two years, advice that you would give a young person.
SEC. RUMSFELD: Advice for a young person. Study history.
Short term percentage gains from a small or depressed base can be misleading, so the percentage figures need to be taken with a grain of salt. All the same, I hope the numbers reflect an underlying reality and I hope the trend continues.
Surely this bears on what policy we should follow in Iraq going forward. If the country outside Baghdad is bouncing back, and if the civil war/insurgency is localized mostly to one location, it seems that would bear heavily on what the next steps by the coalition ought to be.
The multiple caveats you mentioned were laughable. The writer worked too hard to make the good news palatable for...who? His fellow MSM bretheren? Guess he couldn't step too far outside the "Iraq is a mess mantra", certainly any reader with a brain could see what he was doing with the story.
The longer we dwell on our misfortunes the greater is their power to harm us - Voltaire
Im sure its becuase they are benefiting from stealing american taxpayers money. and im sure its going to 17 individuals and they are raising the gdp for everyone
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If "pro" is the opposite of "con", what is the opposite of "progress"?