A Comedy of Errors
It's Not Really Funny
By Leon H Wolf Posted in 2006 — Comments (14) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Today, of course, is the Republican Primary election for the Rhode Island Senate seat, as Adam has already noted in Redhot. I wrote a piece about this race several months ago which still seems to be a pretty accurate picture of the political sense involved in this race. Since that time, not much has changed, in my opinion. Chafee continues to be wobbly, continues to do things to infuriate his caucus members (like holding up the Bolton nomination), continues to be an intellectual lightweight who embarrasses himself regularly and repeatedly with his constant, vacuous vacillation. However, he still votes to organize with the GOP, and still votes a whole lot better than any Democrat not named Ben Nelson (yes, that includes Joe Lieberman), and he still is the GOP's only chance to win in Rhode Island. Were that the end of this story, I'd be perfectly content to approach today's primary with nothing more nor less than total ambivalence.
However, over the course of the last few months, events have occurred which - while not changing the political calculus - have made me alternately angry and sad for the GOP's chances in 2006.
More below...
Lincoln Chafee is, by all fair accounts, a far worse traitor to the GOP than Joe Lieberman ever was to the Democratic party. I don't think a lengthy catalogue is necessary here, although one certainly exists; suffice it to say that Joe Lieberman never publicly announced that he would not be voting for his party's nominee for President. This has not changed, and will not change. Nevertheless, I think that most Republicans were content to just ignore Lincoln Chafee in 2006, and focus on getting wins for other Republicans who were up for election. We don't have a Townhouse list, but I've seen remarkably little anti-Chafee blogging from the right, and certainly nothing even vaguely approaching the digital lynch mob that came after Joe Lieberman from the left.
Then the NRSC stepped in.
While reasonable strategists might disagree over whether going after Chafee would be a good idea during what is sure to be a tight election cycle, almost no one would argue in good faith that Chafee has been the sort of Republican who deserves our pitched support. Nevertheless, in a year in which some of the most loyal Republicans in the Senate (like Jim Talent and Rick Santorum) are fighting for their lives, the NRSC has dumped $1 million into Chafee's campaign; this might be forgivable in a general election, in a primary it's almost enough to make you want to scream. They followed this up by mobilizing the GOTV machine, and then the NRSC then topped it all off by announcing that if Laffey won, they would not support him.
This entire election has been a black hole for Republican resources and money, and the end result is that we are probably left with no Republican who can win. Chafee has been slipping in the polls against Whitehouse, what few Republicans there are in Rhode Island will likely refuse to vote for him after the treatment Laffey has gotten, and the NRSC has blanketed the state with a bunch of lying ads about Laffey, which have effectively neutralized his chances of winning the general election. Way to go, guys. I suppose that there's a way that Rhode Island could have been handled in a worse fashion, I just can't imagine it right now.
Up until two weeks ago, I thought that the best thing would be a Lincoln Chafee primary win, despite the fact that I personally refuse to support any pro-abortion candidate. Now, on the other hand, I have come fervently to hope that Laffey wipes the floor with Chafee today, if for no other reason than the fact that the stupendously incompetent Senator Dole will stop pouring needed money into that state after today, and will hereafter be forced by default into using Republican resources to support Republicans.
Go, Steve Laffey.
And get lost, Elizabeth Dole.
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A Comedy of Errors 14 Comments (0 topical, 14 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I've been on the "I don't care" bandwagon with Linc. I've also been on record around here saying that people shouldn't give any money to Laffey until they've given the max to all the other close races out there. That said, I would love to see the Republican primary voters send Linc back down to the minors, and if I was registered in RI I would be voting for Laffey not only to spite the NRSC, but that would be a major component.
The other thing that many Republicans seem to have ignored is that Chafee has already voted against nominees from his Party for BOTH of the other branches of government. Would anybody be surprised if he went 3/3 if his vote were to determine who controls the Senate?
Incidentally, while Laffey has work to do, the NRSC's abandonment of the race is really irrelevant. Elizabeth Dole has been the most inept person to ever hold the position, and he may well be better off without them as he could use it as further evidence that he's not beholden to the Party. He pulled of a big upset when he became Mayor of Cranston, and Sheldon Whitehouse's history of underperforming on Election Day may repeat itself.
GOP plays favorites in Arizona primary race.
National Republicans are taking the unusual step of picking sides in a competitive Arizona congressional primary, bypassing an anti-immigration conservative to promote a candidate the party contends could win in November.
The National Republican Congressional Committee is spending more than $122,000 on television ads for state Rep. Steve Huffman.
We have to make the NRSC radioactive. We need to hit them so fast and so hard, that no donor will want to get anywhere near them.
Sarcasm off
Isn't it nice that we'll just be content to expose the NRSC's outlandish behavior and withhold our money?
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If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
I find it hard to believe that I have to defend Linc Chafee, but here goes...
The NRSC only got involved because the Club for Growth poured thousands (probably millions) into the race for Laffey. Why the Club is spending money in Rhode Island (one of the bluest states around) rather than sending this money to open districts where their candidate can win is a mystery to me, but nevertheless, they seem to have chosen to do so.
There is no question the NRSC, with the content of its ads, and its declaration of "if we lose, we are taking our ball and going home," is acting rather foolishly in their tactics. But their strategy is basically sound - Laffey simply cannot win!
And to say that the NRSC is making Laffey unelectable in ridiculous.
The NRSC could have devoted all this money to promote Laffey, and he would still lose an open seat race. RI has become a state where only an incumbent named Chafee can win as a Republican Senate candidate. Its federal races (i.e. Senate) are now nationalized. (Guvs, of course, are a difference story; see Almond and Carcieri.)
By the way, while it is possible that Chafee will switch, I don't think it is likely, since he could have switched in 2001, when the Democrats controlled the chamber. He would have been rewarded richly then, as well. And he could have switched this year, as well. Besides, he seems to take a certain perverse pleasure in being a Republican, which Jeffords never seemed to take.
This whole situation is now a mess. Chafee will probably lose the primary, and then Laffey will be swamped in the general election. Considering how many other Republican seats are now in play, I don't think we can afford that.
For leaving well enough alone, and not getting involved at all. However, the NRSC does not have a bottomless fund, and the $1.2 million they spent here could have been spent defending the seats of Santorum, Talent, or some other Republican Senator in danger - one who doesn't stab his party in the back every chance he gets.
I have no beef with the NRSC deciding, as a strategic matter, that Laffey isn't worth supporting in the general election. I have a real problem with them deciding to spend a bunch of money defeating him in a primary, and I most especially have a problem with them doing it with negative ads.
But then, if the alternative is to run positive ads about Lincoln Chafee, I can see how they might not have had a legitimate choice.
republican senators, snowe and collins, spector, etc. but Chaffee has really gone far beyond anything they did. Anyone want to guess where Chaffee would be on removal from office if the house ever impeached bush?
It really upsets me when they are wasting so much money to get one vote, for the majority, from chaffee. Chaffee's vote is never on our side unless the issue wins by a large number, in which case his vote is not necessary. On the other hand, with close votes on judges, patriot act, military trial coming up, talent, santorum, burns, etc are there to be counted.
I think we'll be fine in the Nov elections but in spite of Libby Dole and his failures.
Primaries are for the party supporters to decide the direction they want, the national party should stay out of the this and definitely not sand bag a potential candidate for the general.
As a Rhode Islander, I have to say that I will be glad to see the NRSC leave the state, and I hope they stay out. One of the major reasons why a state Republican party can't get off the ground is because of its association with the national party. I believe the people of the state would happily vote for a fiscal conservative party, but they can't get past the religious overtones of the national party. This is what I believed long before the party started spending money attacking one of our best politicians in favor of one of our worst.
From here, assuming Laffey wins, we might be in good shape. Something no one has payed much attention to over the primary is how awful Whitehouse is as a candidate. In addition, he can expect to get no money from the Democrats for the remainder of the race as the Democrats will get complacent with his lead. Whitehouse might be ahead by a large margin now, but that gap will close as people get a chance to directly compare the two candidates. Remember, 1% in RI is much smaller than it is in other states. Gaps here can close quickly.
If Libby has given up sooner, we would be in even better shape.
You know, the party that keeps taxes down, the deficit manageable, and the good times rolling.
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If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
Adam Turner says"Laffey simply cannot win! And to say that the NRSC is making Laffey unelectable in ridiculous."
Just how long have you worked for the NRSC? You obviously either don't see or are unwilling to admit a cause and effect to NRSC actions. Dole and her ilke at the NRSC, the white house and the Republican party should have stayed out of the primaries instead of playing favorites.
In 2004 White house and party interference In the PA primaries gave us a re-elected Specter...a man we didn't want. By applying pressure on Santorum, a man we do want, to lend support to Specter in that primary you have placed his re-election attempt this year at risk. If he ends up losing it will due to those efforts in 2004 and the net result will be, because of NRSC and Republican party actions, we will have swapped a conservative senator for a RINO...geee, tanks a lot...now, they are in a pique if their efforts fail to re-elect a man who doesn't deserve it and we don't want. The NRSC says "if we lose, we are taking our ball and going home,"...well, go, and to me, good riddance.
I am a former Republican, now an Independent, but always a conservative. I first became a Republican not because of family history of Republicanism, but because the party stood for certain principles that I believed in. If the party was hell bent on being involved in the primary races it should have been as an advocate for the candidate best representing Republican values...not to attack those individuals. Its the Democrat party that has always been about electability and getting elected. Pray tell how does the current position of only supporting those deemed electable regardless of their positions contrary to historical Republican values and issues make Republicans different from the Democrats? And, if its now all about winning and not about principles, why in this world should conservatives support you?
"The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it." ....~ Albert Einstein
"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves."....~ Abraham Lincoln
I tend to think this is a decision that must be made by Rhode Islanders. Robert reproached me a few weeks ago when I wrote "we" need a stronger candidate in Florida; as he correctly pointed out, that was a decision to be made by citizens of Florida, where I do not live. If I felt as strongly as all that I should have donated directly to the candidate I preferred down there. The candidate in turn could have made a case as to why he would be the better of his opponents. Frankly, I wouldn't vote for Chafee if a gun were held to my head but Rhode Island voters must make that determination.
In contrast, for the NRSC to run attack ads against a primary opponent and then announce there will be no support for him if he wins strikes me as suicidal. NRSC donations and indirect help to an incumbent is a different matter altogether than an outright campaign against the challenger. This amounted to an endorsement of the Democrat if the preferred Republican didn't win. I have come to realize that those who have said in the past that the GOP would be better off when the names "Dole" and "Bush" didn't automatically pop up when something important needed to be done may have had a very, very valid point.
It was the party activism here that was the problem, not the intervention of an outside group. If Club for Growth or the Sierra Group or whatever preferred one candidate or another didn't matter. What matters is the party has laid down a marker about who should win the primary, and basically declared the opponent DOA. Strange, strange, strange. I didn't even believe the story when I first heard of it. Sadly it was true.
Incidentally, I think we will barely hold on to both branches despite these self-inflicted wounds.
I was stupefied when Chaffee (along with Grassley and McCain) voted against substantial tax relief in 2001 (HR: 1836). Are the people of RI so rich this does not at least provide some hesitation?
The effort to distance themselves from Laffey will only confuse voters. I therefore guess this is one reason the party will walk away from him should his effort be victorious. They truly believe the polling, plus their own sabotage efforts will make him unelectable. However, as posted earlier the voters are fickle on defense issues and the edge goes to Laffey. My hope: he wins and rubs their face in it.
"Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori"