A Note To Campaigns
By Erick Posted in 2006 — Comments (22) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
We were discussing this issue in the super duper super secret contributor's IM and I decided it was worth taking to the front page.
I've been in the political business for over a decade, first as a grunt, then managing campaigns, then being a lawyer to campaigns and consulting with campaigns. I've worked on federal, state, and local races across the country. From that experience, I have a very general rule -- internal polls are internal unless meant to be a PR vehicle to reassure people and/or generate a few free favorable headlines.
When I see campaigns willingly releasing their campaign internals, I get very suspicious. I trust DSCC and NRSC polls about the same and campaign polls with them. Internal means internal.
So, when I see Thelma Drake (R-VA) or Jim Marshall (D-GA) or Jim Webb (Perv-VA) releasing their internal polls, I think they must be losing and are trying to reassure their base while at the same time attempting to generate favorable media headlines to stop any hemorrhaging. And when they start calling for their opponent to release the opponent's internal polling, they are just posturing for headlines hoping and praying that the opponent is competent and does not release their internal polling. While they will win a headline or two, they will have also signaled to the knowing political junkie that the campaign is not in great shape. Of course, what's always fun is when the opponent does release his internal polling and it shows him up by the same percentage or higher as the original candidate.
Internal means internal.
UPDATE: Check out Jim on this issue too. Particularly the last bit about Webb's fabulous internal poll.
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A Note To Campaigns 22 Comments (0 topical, 22 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
And you better hope to God that Roy will rub off down here like he normally does.
Roy reminds people here in the ozarks what it is to be a Reagan Republican. With any luck that will help put Talent over the top.
It might be the difference in a Democrat controlled senate.
I don't think anyone is concerned with internal polls. But Rasmussen showing Webb beating Allen...yeah, that's important.
http://devine-gamecock.townhall.com and www.race42008.com
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
You now have my attention and I'll be waiting to ban you for your moby activities.
Troll carefully.
Rasmussen has deviated from his usual practice of avoiding polling on Sundays. Back in 2004, he didn't poll on Mother's Day, fearing that he would miss all families out celebrating, and only get single people who trend Democrat. He also used to average three days of polling to damp out flukes.
On Sunday morning, most of Allen's solid supporters were in church, and this time of year, Sunday afternoons and/or evenings frequently involve watching football. Most football fans (too busy to answer the phone during the game) are men, so Webb would have benefited from a gender gap during a Sunday poll, as well as the normal Dem majority among the unchurched.
The poll shows Webb leading by 5% among 500 "likely voters". If 25 football fans didn't answer the phone, there's the gap!
Hopefully, football fans in VA who didn't answer the poll saw lots of George Allen ads--after all, his father was a coach!
The bad news: Conservatism is hard to sell. The good news is that it works.
Sunday Poll. Non-pervs are in church.
And I, too, am growing tired of your act. Have you offered anything since you arrived other than despair?
Reply To This Tab to direct your comment to the intended recipient. You just dissed Erick.
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"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
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"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
reply to this button. You just explained replies to Erick.
:)
(And everytime I correct someone's misspelled word, I misspell something)
I meant what I said and I said what I meant. An elephant's faithful 100 percent.
I really hate it when I do things like that. That'll teach me to have so many windows open at the same time.
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"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
I have a hard time believing Allen will lose, but I guess anything's possible. I would point out that Rich Lowery spoke to several insiders today about the Senate races. He said Allen's internals have him up 3.5% and that's an improvement over the last week. In 2004, Virginia polled closely as well for Bush, but the actual vote was strong for Republicans.
By the way, CNN released a new generic poll and it's pretty good for Republicans. Post Foley, the gap was 21 points. Three weeks later, it has closed to 11 points, 53-42. I suspect the number will continue to tighten if for no other reason than it always does. If we can get the spread to 5 or 6 points, then things should go relatively well. That's my view anyway.
in the generic poll gets to 5 or 6 points, it is very likey the GOP will pick-up seats. That said, I can't bring myself to view the CNN poll as credible.
Here's why:
A total of 1,014 adult Americans were interviewed for the latest poll between October 27 and 29.
(emphasis added)
The poll was not limited to likely voters, and it was conducted over the weekend, which historically undersamples Republicans.
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"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
picking up seats this cycle. We don't have enough targets. The seats just aren't there.
If the generic gets within ten though we should have a decent shot at keeping the house, which would be nice.
Was Kerry ever ahead of Bush in VA polls in 2004 (excluding the screwed up exit polls)?
http://devine-gamecock.townhall.com and www.race42008.com
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
Ha, anyone that believes an internal poll is an idiot. Stick with the nationals if you must follow polls.
If I had access to trends of internal polls, I'd always believe them over public polls. Always. Internal poll designers have an incentive for accuracy. Public poll designers do not.
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If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
*He* was never short on internal polling.