Breaking: Schumer Predicts Dems Will Not Get Senate
By Erick Posted in 2006 — Comments (33) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Fox News is reporting that Senator Chuck Schumer has gone on record saying he expects the Democrats will probably pick up three or four seats in the Senate, but not the six seats necessary for a majority.
No doubt he is trying to sandbag and low ball. But, we can make sure he's more right than not by getting on the phone.
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Breaking: Schumer Predicts Dems Will Not Get Senate 33 Comments (0 topical, 33 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I'm sure they wouldn't want you telling people that you're an independent, but few people would ask.
Here is another shining example of why people should stop hanging thier hopes on polls. SurveyUSA comes out with a poll today showing Webb up 8 as opposed to Allen +3 a week ago. Why the dramatic shift? These party ID weights explain it all.
R D I
10/22-10/24 42% 35% 21%
11/3-11/5 35% 38% 24%
...it'd be appreciated. I just had to yell at somebody else for not doing that...
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC.
Actually, I just posted a link to the Oct 25 poll; the blog I was responding to had a link to the newest one.
His analysis (the grandparent post) is dead on, fwiw.
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Internet member since 1987
Member of the Surreality-Based Community
It's a SurveyUSA poll done for a TV station.
It either shows the undecideds breaking overwhelmingly for the challenger, which happens, or it's just wrong.
I think it's just wrong. Allen's campaign has been both badly run and bewitched by bad luck, and Webb may well beat Allen, but no way is Allen down by that much among likely voters. It's an outlier, a quirk, a statistical goof.
Chuckie, Chuckie, Chuckie, I could have told you that months ago, heh. Oh by the way Chuck the Democrats will not take Congress either.
Peace through superior fire power:)
I know it sounds stupid, but do you think that Chuckie saying this to FNC is a Rope A Dope?
Sitting out is a vote for KOS.
As in the snake that tempted Adam & Eve in the Garden of Eden. And I don't trust him any more than I trust that snake, either.
...so I'll repeat it: stop posting poll results without also providing links. If you don't know how, learn.
Thank you.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC.
the polls are pretty amusing since they are basically useless. CNN has the dems up big and Pew has a tight race. Once again, useless!
You can't find it anywhere ...
“Republicans will have you believe that Democrats will tax you into the poor house and that you’ll meet a terrorist around every corner and trip over an illegal immigrant on the way there.”
Just what he did about terrorists for the whole eight years of his administration, made it a joke ... and he thinks it's all a joke. Truer words were never spoken.
Just vote straight Republican, make it easy on yourself.
Ask and you shall recieve
The current poll internals
http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/Link.asp?L=213891
The previous week's internals
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cf6e41b6-dcf0-40ff-970....
that has an 88.21% voter turnout. Sheeesh
"840 were registered to vote. Of them, 741 were judged to be "likely" voters"
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
Chuckie doesn't strike me as the kind of guy that would say this unless he knew something.
This is hardly a surprise; I'm the resident optimist, and I'm forecasting -3 GOP in the Senate.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC.
I predicted -1 in the Senate and -3 in the House, and now I'm wondering if perhaps I've been too pessimistic about the Senate..
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Internet member since 1987
Member of the Surreality-Based Community
The most optimistic GOP take possible would be losing PA and OH, winning MD and (I guess) NJ, and with incumbents holding in MT, VA and RI, as well as the open TN seat.
I just don't see it happening.
I've known that for a very long time. The Dems would have had to do everything right and sweep all the close races to win control... that would take a Democrat party like one we haven't seen for quite a while now.
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"I am a great believer in luck. The harder I work, the more I have of it." -- Thomas Jefferson
I haven't followed the race, but being stabbed in the back by your friends isn't something most would forget very fast.
So what if the Dems take 6 seats and Lieberman does not put a "D" after his name?
I know the committees are chaired by the majority, but what if Lieberman decides to side with the Republicans. Doesn't that screw up the Dems taking the Senate?
Does it just even out if Chafee is elected. (Any rumors he would switch to Dem? I haven't heard any, but based on this race and his record, I could see him doing it.)
My predictions -- based on nothing other than the latest news and a gut feeling:
Dems will get Ohio, NJ, and PA.
Republicans will take MT, RI, TN
Tossups: MO & VA
So in my book, the Dems won't get their 5 seats anyway. I think they will get 3 and maybe 5 at the most.
I'm curious about what impact the stem cell debate has had in MO. It seems to have been a tied race before and after the Michael Fox ads.
Is the stem cell issue just a wash in terms of getting voters out? It motivates the Dems and some independents but it also seems it would motivate our base and some independents. If the Dems think it helps, we should be prepared for lots of state proposals in 2008.
and since Leiberman is one of the FEW Dems who usually keeps his word, I believe him. He MAY put an (I) after his name, but I doubt it'll make much difference in how he votes.
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Socialism doesn't work. It looks nice on paper, but it's been tried and it's failed miserably every time (usually accompanied by widespread death and suffering).
Proud member of the V.R.W.C.
He's been running such a great campaign, and with black leaders backing him in Prince George County, it's hard to imagine him losing.
We probably lose PA and OH, hold TN, MO, and VA, and MT and RI look like toss-ups, although Burns is surging in MT, in a naturally red state (unlike RI). If Burns and Steele can both win, we would have 53 GOP Senators even without Chafee.
I don't think Lieberman will switch parties if the GOP retains the Senate majority. Since he is already a member of the "Gang of 14", as a Democrat, he would be courted by Republicans whenever they need to break a filibuster on judicial nominees, and with 18 years of seniority, he could have an influential position on Senate committees. If he became a Republican, conservative Senators might fear that his liberal positions on many social issues would make him a liability on committees (as is Chafee now), and tend to marginalize him (as the Democrats would probably marginalize Bob Casey Jr.). Lieberman would probably find it in his own interest to remain an influential moderate Democrat.
The bad news: Conservatism is hard to sell. The good news is that it works.
I think Chucky correctly believed that neither Republican nor Democratic turnout would be affected by whether he predicted Yes or No, on the Democrats winning the Senate majority. Given that, he might as well lowball expectations, so whoever wins the Senate majority, afterwards he can say how delighted he is with the results. If the Democrats actually do win a majority (not likely), Schumer won't mind his prediction turning out wrong.
Lets make sure that on Wednesday, Chuckie will be extra glad he didn't risk predicting a Democratic majority.
Today I got an email from the campaign of Robert Barber, Democrat candidate for SC Lt Governor. Full text:
Come celebrate with us Tuesday evening.
We'll be gathering at the Clarion Town House Hotel (1615 Gervais Street) in Columbia to watch the returns come in and celebrate our victory. Please join us and bring family and friends. Things should be starting once the polls close at seven.
Hope to see you there.
- Robert
Remind your friends and family to vote tomorrow!
Paid for by Robert Barber for Lt. Governor - www.robertbarber2006.com
Now note this from The State:
SurveyUSA also asked about likely voters’ opinions in three other statewide races during the Nov. 2-4 poll:
In the lieutenant governor's race, Republican incumbent Andre Bauer has begun pulling away from Democratic nominee Robert Barber. Bauer was preferred by 55 percent of the respondents to Barber’s 42 percent.
I wonder what would happen if I did go there and celebrate Bauer's victory. (Ain't gonna find out though.)
As for calling, I will call my (conservative Ohio resident) Mom and sister tonight to remind them to vote.
Retire Lindsey Graham. Support Thomas Ravenel for Senate 2008
He's managing expectations, which have gotten out of hand for the Dems, but I think he's probably calling it as he sees it and as it is likely to be. The Democrats will not take the Senate. If they take the House, it will be by a whisker. The MSM has overblown the Democratic wave, not because of a conspiracy, but because it sells newspapers to pretend something big is about to happen.
The MSM has overblown the Democratic wave, not because of a conspiracy, but because it sells newspapers to pretend something big is about to happen.
The cratering circulation figures have shown that either they don't care about selling newspapers or have no idea on how to go about selling them. It isn't a conspiracy, but it is because of entrenched institutional bias.
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"I am a great believer in luck. The harder I work, the more I have of it." -- Thomas Jefferson
couldn't sell papers in a puppy mill. As a whole, journalists are a rather stupid lot because they were journalism students who weren't smart enough to be English majors. Newspaper management used to be journalists. It's the progression of the mediocre.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
I can't find Schumer discussing how many seats he says they'll lose, only this from foxnews.com: ""We have never said we're going to take control of the Senate. We have said we're on the edge. That's where we are," said Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., chairman of the Senate Democrats' organization."
This is a bit different from the post, so I'm curious to see the original Schumer statement. Can anyone help? Still odd that he wouldn't offer an upbeat prediction on the day before the Big Election!
I tend to be optimistic but I feel good about Republican turnout with all the good news we had last week.
Senate
Lose - Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island
Gain - Maryland and Michigan.
I think Washington and Minnesota will be close despite the polls.
House
Net loss of ten seats with gains of two seats in GA, one in Indianapolis, one in West Virginia and one in Illinois.
I would like to say we will keep Santorum but that is my heart talking. I would expect that a high percentage of Santorums supporters will turn out so I don't expect a complete route.
as a registered independent, would the GOP want me calling people on their behalf?