Johnson Trailing In CT's 5th District
By California Yankee Posted in 2006 — Comments (9) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
A new poll finds twelve-term Republican Representative Nancy Johnson slightly behind Democratic challenger Chris Murphy, 46 to 42 percent. The four point margin, is barely outside within the poll's "3.6" percent margin of error.
Read on.
Johnson enjoys strong support among Republican voters, 83 percent to 16 percent, while Murphy leads among Democrats, 77 percent to 16 percent. The key is held by the 45 percent of the voters in Connecticut's 5th District that are not registered as either Democrats or Republicans. According to the Associated Press this block of voters is breaking for Murphy, 45 to 36 percent.
The poll was conducted by UConn's Center for Survey Research and Analysis between October 24 and 28, just before first lady Laura Bush, visited Connecticut to boost Johnson's campaign.
Each successive UConn poll on the races for Connecticut's three Republican Congressional seats has been more depressing for RedStaters:
Simmons leads Courtney 46 to 44 percent.
Shays is tied with Farrell, at 43 percent.
The Hartford Courant suggests the results reflect an anti-incumbent mood sweeping the country due to disenchantment with the war in Iraq.
That analysis is wrong. If Connecticut voters are disenchanted with the war, why is the Democratic anti-war poster boy, Ned Lamont, trailing Senator Lieberman by nearly 20 points?
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Johnson Trailing In CT's 5th District 9 Comments (0 topical, 9 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I thought the margin of error applies to the figures for BOTH candidates, not the difference between them.
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If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
When will these left wing people stop oppressing people with their polls.
Margins of error are always given as "+/-," but this is often ignored. The MOE applies to results for each candidate: if it shows Murphy at 46%, that means his true support could be anywhere from 49.6 to 42.4, while Johnson's "42%" might be 45.6 or as low as 38.4.
Those ranges are only with "95% confidence" anyway.
University-conducted polls are historically among the LEAST accurate, of course.
From the article:
"
Murphy, reached Sunday afternoon while campaigning in Torrington, said the UConn poll results fell roughly in line with internal polls conducted by his campaign since the summer, which have showed that he has gradually closed the gap and pulled even with Johnson.
David Boomer, Johnson's campaign manager, said, "The poll historically over-performs the unaffiliated vote and recently had Gov. [M. Jodi] Rell only leading with 50 percent."
"
Murphy HIMSELF is only claiming to have "closed the gap and pulled even..." What does that say about the poll?
;-)
Not his liberal voting record on abortion - that I don't respect. What I respect is him as a candidate.
Chris Shays has been making poorly timed outbursts and allowing the Democrat to gain the momentum. Nancy Johnson has run ads (like the drug dealer advertisement) which alienate voters, while her opponent has known what ads to run and has caught up to her in spite of a money disadvantage.
Rob Simmons has the most Democrat district of the three, but he has been cool, calm, collected, and he is not going to have any trouble winning.
He will be a good Senate candidate in due time. If the liberals are right and Lieberman becomes Secretary of Defense, then I think Governor Rell would be well served if she appoints Simmons to replace Lieberman.
I live in CT, right on the edge of Nancy Johnson's district. Unfortunately, I am in Larson's district. Johnson has won at least one, and I think two squeakers in the past several cycles. There is wall-to-wall advertising here in the Hartford media market - Simmons/Courtney and Johnson/Murphy. Tons of RNCC, DNCC and 527 ads in addition to the candidates. It is exhausting to watch.
I don't know what to think. My hopeful heart tells me this is another "Drive By Media" special - designed to start the national stampede for the Dems.
On the other hand, this is the state in which "Red Vermont" (Ned Lamont) won a Dem primary over the 2000 VP nominee. President Bush is extremely unpopular. Clearly, if we lose these two races, and/or, God Forbid, Shays/Farrell, it is horrible news nationally.
My guess is that we take two of three - I think Shays may not make it. Simmons should be fine - he played a visible role in saving the New London sub base, even though he is in Gedjenson's old district (which has always been a razor's edge election). And I think/hope Nancy Johnson will prevail. She is a fighter - and really shows her toughness in a close race.
CT has gotten a lot of attention in this cycle. And before I go further I will say that I hope all three of our CT representatives win next week.
But really - given their records - I feel like, in any other year, we'd all probably be just as pleased to see all 3 RINOs removed from the caucus. Our concern for their seats should be identified for what it is - a concern over control and not concern for these three individual members.
We don't like any of their voting records, BUT we should acknowledge that, in Connecticut, we aren't getting anyone better than these. Democrats in those seats would be a whole lot worse.
Conservatives need to remember that not every district or every state is conservative, or receptive to conservative candidates at this moment in time. Who wouldn't love to have a RINO in place of Teddy Kennedy, and think it a major gain?
In some states, RINOs are the best we can get right now, and we should welcome them into the big tent.
pretty much the same, it's pretty close to dishonesty to stay that Johnson is down right now.
Johnson is the sort of representative that weathers the worst storms.
I'm pretty sure they stacked this poll with Democrats.