Latest Batch of Polling
Various and Sundries
By Leon H Wolf Posted in 2006 — Comments (22) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
A few new polls for your viewing pleasure - all of these released today by SurveyUSA. First, IN-9, where incumbent Mike Sodrel is a consensus top-15 "most vulnerable Republicans" pick - this poll shows Sodrel ahead 46-44. This is the first poll showing Sodrel in this race in... ever, so far as I can tell. If the GOP can hold on to this seat, that will be a huge boost.
Second, SurveyUSA continues to find that the MD Senate race is tied, this time at 47. SurveyUSA's had some interesting trends in this election - two of the notable ones have been consistently showing McCaskill ahead of other polls in Missouri, and consistently showing Michael Steele ahead of other polls. In 2002, SurveyUSA blew the MO Senate race between Talent and Carnahan, one of the few they missed. It will be interesting to see what becomes of this Maryland polling. What's significant about Maryland is that other polling companies are all showing this race trending in Michael Steele's favor. It's clear that Steele has all the momentum heading into the final weekend, and the GOP has a real shot to steal one here. Steele has run one of the better campaigns (if not the best campaign) in the nation this year, and is now in a position to capitalize.
More updates as they become available.
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Okay, let me get this straight…
Mike Sodrel, a consensus top-15 "most vulnerable Republicans" is now in the lead, going into the last weekend?
Yet, we are to expect a ‘Democratic tidal wave’?
Now if I were predicting any kind of ‘tidal wave’ wouldn’t my guys be ahead and most outside the margin of error?
Please…a little help here…
In a lot of the seats that were looking terrible for a long time. The new concern are the late arriving competitive races. Plenty of random competitive seats popping up all over the place.
And the jingle...
From Indiana's Heartland...
From farm to riverside...
We'll defend our flag for freedom...
We salute America's pride.
We are for Mike Sodrel.
A leader we can trust.
Mike Sodrel for Congress.
He's getting thing done for us.
The Dems will knock off Hostetler, but not Sodrel or Chocola. Don't think I'm crazy for saying that...I seriously am encouraged by what I see from the Chocola camp, and this is the district with the "Selling our Toll Road to evil foreigners" smear campaign going on.
- Yet, we are to expect a ‘Democratic tidal wave’?
The election is next week, so the Great Democratic Victory must be put back on the shelf. Alas, the polls must now converge toward "too close to call" in anticipation of the actual ballot-counting. The number of forest bipeds who will vote Democrat because they think it's a bandwagon has been maximized at this point; the concern now must be to keep those with brains from figuring out that the Great Democratic Victory is a ruse. But don't worry, the Great Democratic Victory will be back again in 2008.
Drink Good Coffee. You can sleep when you're dead.
HEY no rational thought here allowed the drve by media have already said the elections over & the democrats have taken over control of the house & senate in that BIG BLUE WAVE OF 06
Well I have to admit Steele's chances are better than I thought. I was convinced Kean was the best shot, but Steele has really surprised me. The SUSA poll is better than the rest, but they all show Steele gaining ground.
another SurveyUSA poll comes out showing Musgave up by only 1 percent.
As I posted previously, Indiana's new voter ID law is going to make a big difference in this inner city district recently redistricted. She probably wouldn't be in office now if the voter id law had taken effect 2 years ago.
Julia Carson may be in real trouble... The National Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has unleashed a negative assault on the Republican opponent.
To some of the national shows to point this out. unfortunately the party slated an ineffective candidate so Dickerson ran an independent primary as a republican 9which he is). the state party has not supported him--why i don't know.
best shot they have had in years...as a local 'pub i have been disappointed at his lack of support.
Living here in Indiana, there are some nuances the pundits don't see in their polls. The only thing that has put the Indiana districts in play in this election has been the Governor's leasing of the Indiana Toll Road to a foreign group for multi-billions of dollars. A brilliant financial coup that most other states are now trying copy. But it has been one of those things that most voters have been definitely against, i.e. "our" toll road to "foreign" investors. But I have felt all along that while that would be reflected in the polls, when Hoosiers ultimately had to pull the lever it would be to support the president, his party and the troops. We'll see. Thank you Jon Carry.
funny how those who complain about leasing away the road haven't given back the money--to the tune of what $70 BILLION dollars?
i'm in boone county (next to indy) and still cant figure out what the heck is wrong between the ears of those up north who keep bitching about the toll road deal...
But, aside from that....
As one of those Northern Hoosiers (Elkhart/St. Joe Counties) I'll tell you what has "everyone" ticked:
South Bend is run by Pat Bauer, the looney Democrat who's trying to get his power back in the House. The media flocks to him up here, so all the voters constantly hear him trash the Governor. Additionally, the South Bend media market has never forgiven Mitch Daniels for beating Joe Kernan (former mayor of SB and "grandfather to all"). These two things play hugely into the opposition to any and all things "Daniels."
I am a huge supporter of the Toll Road lease and cannot stand trying to talk with people up here about it. It was the best move Daniels has made, simply for its market-based solution to a problem the government cannot fix. People up here are opposed to it, simply for the sake of being opposed to it, and it drives me nuts. I put forth a fact about the Toll Road to them and they act like they just heard JFK is dead. Incompetence is, sadly, going to play a large factor in these elections.
I never knew that about Kernan being South Bend's fave. Your point really helps explain Indiana politics to me. As a watcher from afar. (I posted below about contributing to Chocola. I did!)
The American Society of Civil Engineers reports a major infrastructure shortfall. Well, of course they would, but I don't dispute the basic point. But can't private money serve?
Mitch Daniels is a leader, he takes risks, and he engaged an issue that every other politician would dodge. Bless him. He's a good governor.
As a resident of Northern Indiana, I can tell you, honestly, that Chris has an incredible shot at keeping this seat. There is a great ground game here, and a lot of "anti-Donnelly." As with most Dems this year, Donnelly has not stated what he is for or against. No issues. No principles. Nothing that ticks him off. Chocola is only down 3 points according to a Research 2000 poll from this Tuesday (50-47). In every poll, Chris has gained and Donnelly has stayed stagnant.
The media will look at Indiana right off the bat on election night. Don't be surprised at all when they can't call this race right away. This is FAR from a blowout, and I'm being as unbiased as I possibly can about that.
Oh, and for the record, its pronounced CHUH-COLA, not CHOK-OLA. Sorry to burst your bubble all you "Count Chocola" fans. :)
Chris Chocola just needs a snappy campaign slogan to take him over the top. How about this:
"Make your vote count, and vote for the Count!"
polls close in Indiana 6:30 p.m. EST. We may well know who will control the House within a couple of hours from then, if either party sweeps the board on these tossups.
At least, that's what my local news says. But, then again, the media bias is exceptionally bad this year, so this could be an effort to keep voters away from the polls and allow Dems to come and sweep the last half hour.
:-)
In a world full of twists and turns, the ultimate twist...is a straight line.
when this wire story tonight of the "rummy must go" editorial to appear monday in the various incantations of military times magazine hits the broadcast media. Granted they are owned by Gannet but all joe voter is going to hear is army times wants Rumsfeld out. Likewise the comments by Perle and Adelman will just bring post invasion Iraq front and center. Not a good news cycle tomorrow.
Rant Street! www.rant.st
I think he ran a trucking company before heading to Congress. I've met him. Just a good Joe.
My connection to Indiana is fleeting, but I gave money to Chocola and now I suppose Mike gets $100 or so.
Go Mike!
Must be part of that BIG BLUE WAVE COMING HUH? lol