LATimes/Bloomberg: More Good News for GOP
By Leon H Wolf Posted in 2006 — Comments (39) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
As we have already noted in part here, the LATimes/Bloomberg polls are some of the most left-leaning polls out there. Whereas Zogby is just absolutely unreliable for anything, as they might well drastically miss the race in favor of Republicans, you can reliably count on the LATimes/Bloomberg results to lean left. As the study linked above notes, LATimes/Bloomberg results systematically underpoll the Republican candidates between 2 and 3 points. With all of that said, here are the latest polls from that organization:
TN Senate: Corker 49, Ford 44 (stick a fork in Ford)
MO Senate: Talent 48, McCaskill 45 (Still too close to call, but I'm confident Talent pulls it off)
OH Senate: Brown 47, DeWine 39 (DeWine needs to turn it around quickly).
VA Senate: Webb 47, Allen 44 (More on this below)
NJ Senate: Menendez 45, Kean 41
Some observations about these polls and the Virginia poll in particular below the fold...
First of all, the general practice when conducting a statewide Senate poll like this is to get a sample size of at least 500 likely voters. In Missouri, Tennessee, and Ohio, the LATimes at least cracked this number. In Virginia and New Jersey, however, the Times did not even crack 400 likely voters. Normal people are skittish when a poll attempts to take the temperature of millions of people based on a sample of 500, even though this can be done with a reasonable (but not perfect) degree of accuracy. However, when you reduce the sample to 314 or 385 likelies, you introduce yet more potential for error.
I think that New Jersey is pretty much right notwithstanding the extraordinarily small sample size, in part because there's a very long and consistent history of other polls showing that Menendez is up between 3-5 points in New Jersey. However, in Virginia, the result showing Webb ahead just doesn't fit. If you look here you'll notice that Webb hasn't been ahead in any poll not conducted by Zogby Interactive in... well... ever. Over the last two weeks, there have been eight consecutive polls showing Allen ahead by 3-5 points (six if you throw out the Zogbys, which is probably wise). There have been no significant events over the last week which precipitate a shift to the Democratic candidate in a Red state like Virginia. In other words, the LATimes took a small sample, and got a bad one here.
This most recent batch of polls confirms my general sense that when the dust clears on election night, we'll have 52 Republican Senators (losing PA, RI and OH, keeping TN, MO, VA, and MT).
« When Negative Ads Backfire — Comments (4) | Democrats Use Race Card in Georgia — Comments (10) »
LATimes/Bloomberg: More Good News for GOP 39 Comments (0 topical, 39 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
"For a Republican to have a shot in NJ he or she needs a healty lead going into the election."
Is that because of all the dead people who vote Democrat?
(Sorry couldn't resist.)
The rank corruption of NJ politics and the Democrat machinery there can manufacture votes on Election Day. At the very least, one would have to admit that a GOPer in NJ should go into Election Day with some kind of lead.
But you're going out on a limb predicting a victory in Montana. I hope you're right. Just saying we need to remember there's a Dem Governor there who controls a lot of levers. Not saying there will be outrigh voter chicanery. But look at their track record on the petition drives for Property Rights and Stop the Over Spending. Schweitzer blocked our drives, then managed to get them thrown off the ballot, after we collected twice the number of sigs required. And his two liberal petitions stayed on, "magically."
If I was the RNC I'd be sending some serious poll watchers into MT. I wouldn't put it past Schweitzer to somehow steal this election for his buddy Tester.
In Montana, if it's close this late, you have to go with the incumbent. Burns has the name ID and most importantly, the money. Tester's in San Francisco while Burns is walking around Big Sky Country in a cowboy hat.
If you're a Montanan, thanks for the heads-up on Schweitzer and the voting irregularities. I too hope the GOP keeps an eye on that.
It's a midterm. 51 would be great, but I'd settle for 50 and a veep who doesn't give a rat's arse about the minority.
Yes, great news re: Missouri and Tennessee.
Can anyone confirm that nothing significant has happened in the Va race over the past week? This is the first poll taken this week that's been released.
Also, hoping we see Burns get a little closer this week. If the election were held today, I suspect we'd have only 51 Republican senators.
And hoping that somebody else (esp. DeWine, Bouchard, or Steele) somehow pulls it out.
As others have noted below, if anything Allen seems to be coming on even stronger in the last few weeks. This state has some very distictive political markets - although with Yankees fleeing here from thier overtaxed, welfare adled, bureaucratic Utopia in mass numbers, that is changing. I suspect an outlier poll had a preponderance of respondants from one area (given the Webb 'juggernaught', I'd say NoVA). With the batteries dead on my crystal ball, the results will be Allen 54, Webb 45. If I'm wrong, I'll refund your money.
For a reverse anecdote, think of poling for Martin Frost in the Midland or Panhandle areas.
would seem to be what the polls are saying now. Here's hoping there's movement to make it more like 54 for the GOP.
The polls are showing 51. PA, OH and RI seem to be finished (I'd like to see Santorum give his remaining money to Conrad Burns or Talent, although I know that isn't going to happen). Right now, the polls are showing Burns going down, although the gap is narrowing.
Chafee out in Rhode Island. For all the reasons we don't like him, he'll probably pull this one out. If this ends up being what keeps the majority, we'll have to re-examine our statements about the national party supporting a RINO so strongly in the primary.
If not, then not.
I don't see how he can help keep the majority. If he is among 51 GOP Senators, then he has no incentive to pull a Jeffords as doing so would put the Senate in Cheney's hands. If, however, Chafee is required to reach a 50-50 tie, then he probably would pull a Jeffords and hand the Senate to Harry Reid.
So Chafee won't switch. Its nearly impossible for the Senate to be 50-50 without Chafee losing. So if he stays in the Senate, he stays Republican.
I can tell you that nothing really has gone on that would warrent Webb taking the lead on Allen. In fact, things have moved the opposite way. Allen was endorsed by the black Richmond Voice newspaper, and has been pummelling Webb on taxes woth tv spots. Furthermore, the marriage amendment on the ballot in VA should help Allen's turnout. This LA Times poll seems like a bad one.
If there is one dark horse, its not Bouchard but Steele. I live in Northern VA, in the DC ad buy market, so I get Maryland ads. Steele seems to be connecting while the more aloof Cardin is not. We have three hail marys-MD, MI, NJ--and we need one to fall out way whil holding Montana, Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri. I agree that Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island are gone.
-------------------------------------
"As nations can not be rewarded or punished in the next world they must be in this."
- George Mason
If anything, Allen is widening his lead. Mason Conervative is correct -- there is noting happening in this race that would warrant a Webb lead. Here in blue Northern Virginia, I don't see any evidence that Webb excites anyone. Even Dems seem to support him only because he's not a Republican. The sense is that he's kind of an empty suit. And for what it's worth, and anecdotally, I see Allen yard signs in my leftist neighborhood. Not as many as Webb's, but in this so-called "wave year," the fact that there are nearly as many Allen signs in Falls Church is a pretty good indication that he will not be totally swamped by Webb in vote-rich Northern Virginia.
yes, but it aint over until its over on several races.
If "NJ requires homosexual marital rights" will that boost NJ and PA? Maybe so, and maybe beyond that, as we look to the values voters "coming home" to the party that got Roberts and Alito on the court, instead of the party that wants to filibuster any judge who is not a liberal activist.
On Hardball last night, one of the NBC/MSNBC reporters said that several news organizations were working on several potential story leads involving both candidates that might have an impact on the race. The reporter mentioned the "n-word" story as an example of the type of stories that were under investigation.
Anyone connected know to what he might have been referring?
But the N-word thing is pretty silly and I think is disregarded by most on both sides here. It's not going to move any votes one way or the other.
who is newly registered, but we've had some trolls around that have been signing up more than once. I was just thinking that this was another one.
Just as every cop is a criminal, and all the sinners saints - Sympathy for the Democrats
about an "n-word" reference. Could it possibly be a reference to Allen saying "never say never"? Or being asked a question and answering "No"? Both "never" and "No" start with "N". Or maybe he said something nice about "Nixon".
There are just too many words in Websters that start with "N" to guess at the possible meaning. Any chance you've got some specifics?
And by the way, if there is a synonym for "idiot" that starts with "N", he could be talking about you.
_______________________________
If "pro" is the opposite of "con", what is the opposite of "progress"?
___________________________________________________________
Thou art the Great Cat, the avenger of the Gods, and the judge of words...-Inscription on the Royal Tombs at Thebes
Can someone please explain why Ohio is so bad for DeWine? He won all the major newspaper endorsements and is running against a major liberal, but he just isn't getting any traction at all. Will conservatives come back to him?
1. The overall bad political environment for Republicans in Ohio, from the governor on down.
2. DeWine's voting record has alienated many conservatives in Ohio.
3. Ohio is trending purple-to-blue.
Ohio is definitely trending blue. Even with the Taftfatigue, if this was a "red state" then Blackwell would be doing better, and not getting blown out by 50 points.
In fact, the whole midwest seems to be turning solidly blue now.
I don't think Ohio is becoming more liberal. Northeast Ohio (the only liberal bastion) is losing population and the fastest growth is in the Columbus exurbs, which went heavily for Bush.
They just need to wash out that awful Gov. Taft taste from their mouths.
--
If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
The outgoing Republican governor of Ohio (Taft, I believe), has crashed and burned and is taking the Republican Party there with him. I recall his approval numbers are low enough (single digits?) to make Bush's look like, well, Bush's approval just after 9/11. Plus DeWine hasn't exactly been inspiring for conservatives (wasn't he a member of the Gang of 14?).
---
Internet member since 1987
Member of the Surreality-Based Community
Governor Taft may be the least popular governor in the history of the United States. He is dragging down the entire party, even people like DeWine and Blackwell who should be above the stink.
It is a particular shame in the case of Blackwell who is an excellent conservative and great candidate. He was the only non-rotten apple among senior GOP leaders in Ohio. But Strickland, who is a genuine idiot, is running around calling his opponent "Taftwell." That's all it takes for a 20 point lead in a state that leans Republican. Taft is that much of a drag. I hope he rots in hell.
I hope everyone on RedState saw the Wall Street Journal op-ed on October 16 that compared the Republican party in Florida with the "Republican" party in Ohio. Here it is:
http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/kstrassel/?id=110009100
As the least popular governor. He single handedly ruined Illinois for Republicans and gave us Gov. Blago and our worthy Senators Obama and Durbin. R's have very little chance here outside a few downstate districts (Mine's safe with LaHood, but there's a lot more that have turned blue).
I hope this doesn't ruin his chances in the future for a shot at another office, or at the governorship again. It is completely unfair that Blackwell -- a stellar conservative -- is being undone by a super-RINO like Taft.
The lesson from Ohio is: If you lose the base, you aren't going to win anything. There's no doubt they have lost a big chunk of the base with Taft and their two obnoxious McCain-clone Senators.
---
"I am a great believer in luck. The harder I work, the more I have of it." -- Thomas Jefferson
There would have been SOME movement to DeWine by now if he was going to have any chance on election day, imo.
It's very discouraging that conservatives seem so willing and eager to vote for an extreme liberal. You wouldn't see liberals flocking to a hard-Right conservative like that.
I'm not sure this election was ever about the issues. Many of them voted Republican loyally, and what did they get? Sixteen years of Govs. Voinovich and Taft, taxing and spending Ohio down to 49th in overall tax climate, Voinovich and his former Lt. Gov. DeWine coming across as two of the bigger doofuses in the Senate, whether it was on John Bolton, immigration, or judges, and ethics scandals.
Republicans need strong support in the Cincinnati area to win, and Cincinnati area voters have gotten a double dose of DeWines with Hamilton County Commissioner Pat DeWine, who apparently thought that six months in office was enough to establish himself as a candidate for Congress. Voters in the 2nd District chose the less-than-inspiring Jean Schmidt over him and Bob McEwen, whom they'd thrown out years before over the check-kiting scandal. Too many people see this as a contest between fake Democrats and real Democrats, and given that choice, most will vote for the real thing. You can only hold your nose for so long.
So why is the one real Republican running for office doing even worse than the RINOs? One reason is that the slanders against Ken Blackwell have been going on since the last election. Perhaps if voters were in more of a mood to support Republicans in general, they would rally against it, but they're not. There was the ugly primary against Jim Petro, who really was a Taft supporter. Many of the Petro supporters are among the defectors. Blackwell doesn't have the support of many of the state GOP bigwigs because he's spent the last eight years calling them out for being RINOs.
Ken Blackwell is a true heir to the Reagan legacy. Unfortunately, in this election, he appears to be playing the role of Barry Goldwater.
In any other year, I wouldnt mind the house cleaning, but to see an out-and-out leftist like Sherrod Browd get in (*shudder*). shades of previous leftists that Ohio sent to the Senate (forget his name)...
as for "Ken Blackwell is a true heir to the Reagan legacy. Unfortunately, in this election, he appears to be playing the role of Barry Goldwater."
... I recall Ted Strickland was kicked out of Congress in the wave of 1994... but made a comeback. I hope that even if Blackwell loses big, he comes back later.
If you look at the internals for the latest Mason-Dixon poll on NJ, you will see that Menendez has plenty to worry about. His numbers are NOT good for an incumbent and, considering the state's wild voting history as an election approaches, I wouldn't be suprised if Kean pulls it off. I sure hope and pray he does!
I just don't get the conservative antagonism toward DeWine. Yes, he's pretty squishy, but Brown is so far out. Sitting out just means helping Brown win.
At this point I would be surprised to see Allen lose. He has consistently been ahead in almost every poll so a single poll suggesting otherwise seems more like an outlier than a true indication of voter intentions.
Menendez is going to win by 8 or so when it's all said and done. For a Republican to have a shot in NJ he or she needs a healty lead going into the election.
I think the Talent McCaskill is still too close to call. The polls are all over the map with this one.
I'm sticking with a 51 seat majority for the GOP when it's all said and done.
"There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why... I dream of things that never were and ask why not." George Bernard Shaw