Lieberman Leads By 12
By California Yankee Posted in 2006 — Comments (13) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
A Quinnipiac University poll released today finds Senator Lieberman leading Democratic primary winner Ned Lamont 53 percent to 41 percent among likely voters. Republican candidate Alan Schlesinger receives 4 percent.
Noting that the millionaire anti-war candidate's Democratic primary win was based on a very small percentage of voters statewide, Quinnipiac reports Lieberman has strong support among Connecticut Independents and Republicans:
In this latest survey, Lieberman leads 75 - 13 - 10 percent among likely Republican voters, and 58 - 36 - 3 percent among likely independent voters, while likely Democratic voters back Lamont 63 - 35 percent.
The poll was conducted from August 10 - 14 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
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Lieberman Leads By 12 13 Comments (0 topical, 13 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I predicted Lieberman would win as an (I) if he lost the primary, and it looks like I was correct (admittedly, not an incredibly tough outcome to predict). I don't foresee the Krazy Kos Kooks getting their first victory here. Or in Montana in that case - I think Burns comes from behind to squeak by in a closer-than-it-should-have-been victory as well.
Sorry, Koolaid Kids, better luck next election.
There is no theory of evolution, just a list of creatures Chuck Norris has allowed to live.
I made two big errors in expecting him to win with 45-48%:
1. I didn't distinguish between registered Democrats who voted for Kerry, and Independents who voted for Kerry. I expected that Democrats would swing for Lamont by about 67/33, so that makes me feel good. I forgot that there would be indepdendenta who go around preening themselves about their independence, and so wouldn't be inclined to reject Lieberman just because the Democrats have nominated Lamont.
2. I didn't dare expect Lieberman to get that many Republicans/Bush voters. I hoped for a 67/33 win, but this is huge, heh.
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"In this day and age, you're not going to get a fair shake in the media" -- Lance Armstrong
More correct headline.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
"they said" he couldn't go lower than six, and now he's at four just a few days later. it also looks like everything he's losing is heading straight for lieberman's column, for exactly the reasons neil stevens points out, who seems to understand schlesinger's base better than schlesinger himself does.
meanwhile, lamont has been busy shooting himself in the foot, along with all the other high profile democrats who are still jumping on his bandwagon in the midst of the worst possible indications to do so. they are obviously more afraid of michael moore than of any rational assessment of reality.
this will continue to be an interesting contest and i am taking no particular outcome for granted this far ahead of november.
Not to be Mr. Negative here, but doesn't anyone else feel like this is a complete failure on the part of the Connecticut GOP and the NRSC? I won't be upset if Liberman wins, but it's embarrassing to see a GOP candidate polling so low.
If the GOP was serious up there, they'd have forced Alan out, and put in Jodi Rell, who could have shackled both Joe and Ned. Or maybe even pro-wrestler Bob Backlund! Anyone but the corrupt Schlesinger, who can't even get an endorsment from RNC Chair Ken Mehlman.
and i've been doing some similar complaining here, only because this race has been incorrectly perceived as a source of jubilation for some republicans who think all it's about is democrat infighting, when, as you say, it reflects years-in-the-making self-destruction of new england republicans and the new england republican organization that offers and caters to "RINOs only."
history students will appreciate that the senate career of joe lieberman was launched by disaffected conservatives spearheaded by bill buckley, who were completely disgusted with lowell weicker.
to return to the point you raised, alan schlesinger was nominated by connecticut republicans during their may convention because no one else wanted the nod. the talk we're hearing today that there was some kind of conspiracy to exclude better candidates who would have been stronger is largely mythology. there are certainly wealthy republicans around the state who have more financing power that key republicans in connecticut wish would have sought the nomination but, alas, they don't see much in it for them, and they're probably right.
They can't "force" Schlesinger out. What they can do is not support him and try to get him to drop out. The polling that shows him dropping from 20 to 6 to 4 is evidence that they are doing everything they can and they are doing it well. The GOV has already said she wants Schlesinger out of the race which was probably the biggest indication that GOPers were free to abandon him. If he drops out and a credible nominee joins the race, it could make the 3-way matchup interesting. But he cannot be forced into dropping (through a vote or anything) so just abandoning him is the best the CT GOP can do.
want Joe to win. It will be perceived as a much bigger black eye to Democrats if Joe wins than if the Republican won in a three way race.
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If "pro" is the opposite of "con", what is the opposite of "progress"?
the national org certainly would not have. they haven't been involved in new york or new england for years, except to raise money to spend elsewhere. what they'd like, however, is a candidate with a big bankroll like lamont. that's as close as you get to support from the republican party in new england!
If Joe is perceived as being the gop candidate he could run into trouble, i would expect a tight race in the end.Also if
Iraq gets even worse it could spell trouble.
It will be interesting if the senate end up 50/50 Joe would get a lot of pressure to switch sides but he has sworn he wouldn`t.
I would expect the dems to pick up at least 4 senate seats. In fact i think burns is in more danger than Santorum.
Ned's victory has been heralded as a defining triumph for the democratic party. One must consider the backing which made Mr Lamont's victory possible and the views of these organizations, they are extreme leftist. He leads only in the democratic poll and is unlikely to retain current support if he makes an attempt to move to the center.
Mr Lamont's "defining triumph" outlines the future game plan for the party itself, major issues being withdrawing from Iraq, constitutional rights for terrorists, freedom of speech (no wiretapping)... We recently witnessed the terrorist attempts to hijack jets from Britain, watched a judge paralyze our surveillance, how will Sen Clinton now support anti-terrorism?
Sen Lieberman loves his country and promises to protect it.
Carl
Why vote for the Republican anti-war candidate when you can get the deluxe package in Lamont?
I can see why Schlesinger thought this would work in a two man race against Lieberman. He hoped that he could hold the Bush voters in the state and add in some of the far left. But even if Lamont doesn't enter the race, I don't see it working.
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"In this day and age, you're not going to get a fair shake in the media" -- Lance Armstrong