MA gubernatorial: What if Kerry Healey loses?
Is Mitt Romney to blame for the Deval Patrick juggernaut?
By Mark Kilmer Posted in 2006 — Comments (41) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
In Massachusetts, Lt. Governor Kerry Healey is the Republican running for governor against Democrat Deval Patrick. The latest Boston Globe/CBS4 poll of only 585 people claiming to be "likely voters" has the Dem up by 25-points, 54-percent to 29-percent, with less than two weeks to go. Who's to blame for Kerry's poor showing? Republicans, after all, can be elected governor of Massachusetts; just ask Mitt Romney.
Mitt Romney. According to Boston Herald columnist Howie Carr, Healey's plight is Mitt's fault:
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Mitt Romney, this is your fault.
Maybe it’s not all on your head, but as we survey the impending Republican disaster here, your name is at the top of a very short list of suspects.
Poor Kerry Healey. Perhaps she should have told you she wasn’t an Irish Catholic before you picked her as your running mate, but that was four years ago now. We all know it’s a Mitt Romney world, but still, couldn’t you have thrown her a few second-tier assignments? She never got a chance to define herself, because you never let her up for air.
So now you have a situation where a majority of the electorate agrees with her on the issues - taxes, crime, illegals. Yet they’re still planning to vote for Deval Patrick. Because they don’t like her.
Is it fair? Of course not, but you never gave her the opportunity to overcome what she herself calls her Muffy problem, and please don’t remind me who hung that moniker on her. [highlight mine]
I don't know if Carr loves Mitt or hates him, or if he feigns indifference. In this column, though, he seems to be thinking like a Republican:
But the fact is, Mitt, you should have been the nominee, not Kerry Healey. You could have won - just step back from Bush a bit, like Schwarzenegger, or, closer to home, Jodi Rell in Connecticut. They’re cruising to victory, and you would be, too.
When you run for governor, it’s assumed that if you win you’ll seek re-election. It’s an implied promise, and you broke it.
I know, yesterday you had an early-morning press conference and said the state will suffer if Deval is elected. No kidding, Willard. It was too little, too late.
So now you think you’re just going to stroll away from the wreckage, right?
Think again, Mitt. Bechtel will haunt you. It already does. The other night, Dick Morris succinctly summed up your major problem as a presidential candidate: “He just took ownership of a graveyard.”
That would be the Big Dig.
(For the record, Mitt has admitted a mistake was made in using Bechtel/Parsons Brinckerhoff in consulting on Big Dig repairs. He blamed Transportation Secretary John Cogliano and threatened to fire him if he didn't correct his mistakes. "We all know it’s a Mitt Romney world." )
Brian McGrory, columnist for the Boston Globe, has harsh words for the past demeanor of Ms. Healey's campaign, but he observes:
First, Mitt Romney -- you remember, the governor of Massachusetts -- appeared on her behalf in the morning, something he hasn't done in the general election campaign. In the afternoon, Healey surrounded herself with victim advocates, veteran cops, a respected former prosecutor -- women all -- during a rally on the State House steps in which her law enforcement credentials were put on vibrant display.
McGrory suggests that the belated Mitt intervention is probably "too little, too late," and it likely is. And back to Boston Herald columnist Carr, who predicts that Deval Patrick will pull a Dukakis, raising Massachusetts taxes and blaming the previous Republican administration for unpaid bills.
So it looks an awful -- and I stress that adjective -- lot like Massachusetts will have a Democrat governor in the New Year, and it will be, in some minds, Mitt Romney's fault. This race thus has '08 Presidential implications, and Mitt seems to have wizened to the fact that Kerry Healey will have to close the gap if he seeks to shed his amassing baggage.
Go Kerry! Go Mitt! Bledsoe is on the bench in Dallas.
[NOTE: Please pardon the sarcasm. It's been a lengthy season.]
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MA gubernatorial: What if Kerry Healey loses? 41 Comments (0 topical, 41 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
that dude needs to lay off the sugar or caffeine or something.
Howie's only deflecting blame on Mitt in a joking way. On his radio show over the past 4 years he's always referred to Healey as "Muffy", but he recently dropped that appellation when faced with the likely prospect of a governor (Patrick) who's basically Dukakis + Clinton + Jackson rolled up into one package. We're screwed. Issue by issue, the voters are pretty solidly with Healey, but she's way behind in the polls.
Mitt hasn't exactly been tight with Healey. With less than 2 months to go in the 2002 election, he thought that her name was "Sherry Murphy". And he's responsible for PO'ing Mihos sufficiently such that he bailed out of the Republican party to mount an independent campaign that looks to be doing for Patrick exactly what Perot did for Deval's mentor Bubba in '92.
and I think voters in the rest of the country could care less about the "big dig", or who Kerry Healy is, or "was". By the way, Howie Carr is a big fan of Mitt from hearing him on his WRKO radio show. He even had Mitt sub for him on a show earlier this year. Not something you would do if you didn't like him, now, is it? None of this will hurt his chances in the 2008 presidential primaries.
People around the country will be more apt to warm up to Mitt when they see him in action like this:
http://breakingnews.redstate.com/blogs/fwrichards/2006/oct/24/mitt_romne...
But having just been through Massachusetts as part of my liveblogging road trip, I can say honestly that probably the biggest factor hurting Healey is, well, Healey.
She has allowed herself to be overshadowed by Mitt, and to be fair, he's been a little too OK with that, perhaps (look at his RGA ad for "Healey"-- it's really a Romney ad). Yes, Mitt's increased happiness to deal with the FRC and such doesn't play well with Massachusetts voters, but if Healey had done more in the first place to sell herself as a candidate, instead of sell voting for her as carrying on the Romney legacy, it wouldn't be nearly the problem it is.
Liz Mair is the editor of WWW.GOPPROGRESS.COM, a RedState-style blog for libertarian, mainstream and moderate Republicans
If he can't or won't help his lieutenant governor then it shows he built a house of cards in Massachusetts, not an organization.
To be fair, the criticism is either tounge-in-cheek or nonsense:
So now you have a situation where a majority of the electorate agrees with her on the issues - taxes, crime, illegals. Yet they’re still planning to vote for Deval Patrick. Because they don’t like her.
If the voters like what she stands for, but don't like her, the problem is the candidate, not the "organization" Mitt's left behind. The current administration can help the candidate, sure: they can frame the legislative debate in Massachusetts, and focus it on issues that are favorable to the Lt. Governor. But it doesn't sound like issues are the problem. Mitt can't make people like Healy's personality. If she can't do that herself, she's a dead candidate walking, and no organization is going to change that. Particularly as a Republican in Massachussets.
I don't know if the criticisms of Healy's personality are valid. I'm not from the state and have never heard her speak. That said, "Healy is unlikeable" does not equal "Romney failed her."
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"Tradition is the democracy of the dead. It refuses to submit to that arrogant oligarchy who merely happen to be walking around"
-G.K. Chesterton
an organization can bring out voters for even mediocre candidates. If you doubt me, take a walk down the halls of the Capitol and tell me you are meeting bright, charismatic people by the boatload.
And therein is my point. If he can't make this race close for his lieutenant governor he hasn't built a party he's built a personality cult.
If he can't make this race close for his lieutenant governor he hasn't built a party he's built a personality cult.
Two points:
1) The race here will be much closer than the polls indicate. I wouldn't be surprised to wake-up on the 8th to find Patrick won by less than 10 - and lots of people are going to have some 'splaining to do for their lousy polling.
2) A personality cult is precisely what the MA GOP has been since 1990 - hence the lack of organizational carry-over from one governor to the next and the lack of progress in any office other than Governor.
Just saying.
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"I don't know." -- Helen Thomas, when asked by White House spokesman Scott McClellan, "Are we at war, Helen?"
That's mildly fair only in part because I know you know that a political party is more than just candidates. The party infrastructure here in Massachusetts was a shambles after the Weld/Celluch/Swift debacle and had to be rebuilt from scratch. That takes more than 4-years even in the best of climates.
The unfortunate by-product of that is that you have bright, capable, but ludicrously inexperienced people literally running the party. My county coordinator here, a lovely, smart and energetic young lady, is maybe 25. In the Democrat Party here, or in the GOP someplace like Texas, she'd be a precinct captain somewhere learning the on the ground nuts-and-bolts of local politics.
We just don't have that luxury here.
So yes, Mitt will leave not a whole lot when he leaves. But believe it or not it will be better, far better - if not in the numbers of elected officials but in party apparatus and infrastructure - than what he inerited.
For what it's worth.
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"I don't know." -- Helen Thomas, when asked by White House spokesman Scott McClellan, "Are we at war, Helen?"
The last Dem governor of MA was Mike Dukakis. In 1990. 16 Years of GOP Governors gone.
With no organization? No nothing?
Its the bluest state in the union. Its tought to get any Republican elected in MA. Their legislature is overwhelmingly democrat and their AG, treasuer, secretary of state and auditor are all democrats. Both their senators are democrats and every US congressman is a democrat. Out of 40 state senators, only 6 are republicans.
The GOP is in a sorry state in Massachusetts, but it has been this way for a very long time. The party has been lucky to hold onto the Governor's mansion for so long given the dynamics.
The republicans have held the governor's office for 16 years due to 3 things:
1. Strong GOP candidates (Bill Weld, Paul Celluci, Mitt Romney)
2. Weak democrat candidates
3. Luck
Unfortuantly this cycle the democrats have the strong candidate, the republicans have the weak candidate and the GOP hasnt had any luck.
you would know.
Weld was all about keeping WELD in office. Celluch was all about getting re-elected and then bolting as quickly as he could. Swift, well, was not.
Besides, when you control 6-of-7 legislative seats (and did through these entire 16-years) and the entire hack-o-rama, you can build-up quite a farm team.
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"I don't know." -- Helen Thomas, when asked by White House spokesman Scott McClellan, "Are we at war, Helen?"
Right after the Dem primary, Patrick had something like a 30-pt lead. I think part of that lead can be blamed on Romney, insofar as Healey didn't get to define herself, but Patrick did (and it helps that he was charismatic and came off a big win). But Healey had been climbing ever since then, and made up a good chunk of that gap. Depending on which polls you believe, she was within 10. But I think the Healey may be the best example yet of negative ads backfiring:
http://www.boston.com/news/local/politics/candidates/articles/2006/10/27...
Her unfavorability ratings skyrocketed after those ads, and a majority said the ads made them less likely to vote for her. I think there are secondary factors contributing to Patrick's lead -- Romney himself has become less popular, Dems have been solidifying control here, Mihos is shaving off several points, etc -- but, assuming this race ends in a landslide, it will because Healey's campaign was incompetently run.
And it won't hurt Romney in 2008 if, in the next 2 years, Patrick does allow illegals to obtain drivers licenses, does give them free college education, and does proceed to screw up the economy of Massachusetts. However much the public in this state has become disenchanted with Romney now, they will be happy to vote for him in the 2008 primary. And that would be quite a national story if the state was in a tailspin after being solidly run for the 4 years under Romney. That's a story many republican primary voters might just like.
And I might take issue with Streiff's comment that Romney may lack organizational skills. He didn't get where he was in the private sector by being weak in that area. And from what I understand, his national organization, which is running under the radar, is formidable.
but it isn't like Mitt is going to leave a Republican party behind in Massachusetts. When he steps down it will be as if he were never there, that is not a man who can build a party regardless of what he's accomplished otherwise.
with you. There has never been a real Republican party here in Massachusetts and it is unrealistic for anyone to think that it can be accomplished in a 4-year term. The dems are entrenched here and you know it. Let Mitt loose around the country where there are real Republicans and you'll see what organizational skills he can muster.
we have no right to expect results?
How many more elected Republicans are there in the Mass legislature now than there were four years ago? Didn't the Republicans loose seats in 2004?
A lot of people can do a great job in an organization that is successful, and I would contend that the Republican party regardless of what happens in two weeks has been a successful organization since 1994. The question is whether he's leaving behind a stronger or weaker party than that he inherited. I think the answer is clear, it is a weaker party and he has to bear some responsibility for that.
RedState contributors have consistently complained about the lack of this Republican-led congress to balance the budget and to controll spending. Unless I am mistaken, Romney has balanced the budget every year (without raising taxes or increasing debt levels), and in fact, he eliminated a $3 billion deficit after his first year. The state currently enjoys a $1 billion surplus. You don't accomplish that without some organizational skills. The problem with the Republican party in this state is not of the governor's making. It is with the quality of the candidates the Republicans run against entrenched democrats. Mitt has little control over that unless we want to invoke a little Romney Derangement Syndrome- that somehow it's his fault for not recruiting candidates. Bush doesn't recruit candidates for national office, and the leadership continues to back failed candidates like Chafee in the primary.
and a short crooked one to boot.
Why doesn't the 80+% Dem Massachusetts legislature get credit for the budget surplus? They have as much to do with that as Romney.
Why isn't a $1 Billion surplus evidence of a tax rate that is way too high?
The governor in every single state, regardless of party, is responsible for recruiting candidates for state office. It is part of his job as the head of the party in the state.
If you think Bush doesn't recruit candidates it is because you haven't been paying attention and if you think the national party chooses failed candidates then I'd say you should compare where Republicans are nationally now compared to 2002, something you don't seem willing to do in Massachusetts.
Seems to me that all Romney has done in Massachusetts is win one election. He hasn't built a party, in fact the party is weaker for his having been governor. Again, this goes back to his inability to help his lieutenant governor. We're beginning to see a pattern here and not one that I'd like to see duplicated on the national scene.
As hard as it is for me to say this, you guys and your excuses are beginning to make McCain look like a good candidate.
then why doesn't the Republican controlled Congress take the blame for the budget deficit? And you should know the answer about the tax rate being too high. Romney had proposed reductions in the state income tax and was rejected by the "80% Dem legislature". Before Romney ever became governor, the people decided through referendum to reduce the state income tax and the "80% Dem legislature" never gave it the light of day.
You can say all you want about the national party choosing and/or supporting candidates, but you chose to ignore my example of Chafee. I could give you others and you know who they are, but what's the point?
My relevant question to you since you seem to have made up your mind on Romney for 2008, is if he wins the nomination, will you support him? Wholeheartedly?
I don't see anyone saying they aren't responsible for the budget deficit, do you?
Ah, so Romney gets credit for balancing the budget and having a $1 billion surplus BUT the Dems are bad for not lowering taxes and giving the surplus back. You have any idea how disingenuous that sounds... and is?
I'm not ignoring Chaffee he's just not relevant. Bush, unlike your boy, has build a parth that has won seats in three elections.
No, I won't support him wholeheartedly because I think he's an empty suit who will run the national party into the ground the same way he's run whatever passed for a Republican party in Massachusetts into the ground. But if he wins the nomination I will hold my nose and vote for him.
About 10 days ago Romney was in Washington for a luncheon speech attended by Ken Mehlman who stated that there was no more sought-after speaker than Mitt Romney among Republicans these days. The important point is that during his introduction, Mehlman said that Romney has used his role as chairman of the Republican Governors Association to raise more money than ever before in the organization's history. He may not be able to find willing candidates to take on the entrenched democrats in Massachusetts, but he apparently does have the organizational skills necessary to improve the fortunes for the national party. Which is really the point, isn't it?
Or, again, is he just "doing a great job in an organization that is successful"?
Ross Perot was a sought after speaker, too.
We'll have to see how well he did heading the RGA in a couple of weeks. Right now, I'm willing to go out on a limb and bet we have less that 28 Republican governors on the Wednesday after election day than we do today.
But, of course, that wouldn't be Romney's fault either.
nomination in 2008! I am ignorant of Mass politics but I am reasonably confident that Mitt will do well in the South despite the CW. I've seen him in SC and he wowed the room which was heavily populated by many of my evangelical brethren and sisteren. But seriously, Streiff, who do prefer, as of now, to be our standard bearer in '08?
I like Newt, Mitt, and Rudy in that order.
http://devine-gamecock.townhall.com and www.race42008.com
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
I loathe McCain. Rudi would be a moderate Democrat in any jurisdiction outside NYC and his stance on abortion, not to mention his nasty personal life, are war stoppers for me. For a lot of reasons I think Romney is a one-man-band who will do nothing good for the national party.
So I'll give my half-hearted vote to whoever gets the nomination but unless things change mightily I'll sit out the primary for president and just punch the ticket for state and local office holders.
He handled a Clinton impeachment/Newt's bad marriages question rather well, which makes me think he could overcome his skeletons.
But really I have been dis-enchanted since Reagan left, although I do like W.
http://devine-gamecock.townhall.com and www.race42008.com
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
to like Romney but the best I can say is that he looks great on paper.
I like Newt but he's our Hillary. There are 40-45% of the population that will never vote for him.
And I'm not trying to be snarky, I just don't know the answers...
1. Why didn't Romney run for a second term?
2. What would have happened if he had?
Thanks...
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If "pro" is the opposite of "con", what is the opposite of "progress"?
doesn't answer the questions posed about Romney, does it?
A precedent embalms a principle.
- Disraeli
1. I have absolutely no idea.
2. I live in Arizona not Tennessee.
3. I think Frist is a nice man, probably a good doctor and a complete idiot as Senate majority leader.
4. I'm glad he's retiring, I'm glad we will have a new majority leader whose name isn't Frist.
Now, about my questions? Please understand, I'm not trying to be confrontational or snarky. I used to live in MA a long time ago & I'm simply interested in the state's political upheavals, I've always found it to be a rather strange place for politicians.
I'm not going to take shots at your answers, I'm just interested in your opinion. If you don't want to leave yourself open to shots from others, email me privately, my address is available in my profile.
Thanks.
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If "pro" is the opposite of "con", what is the opposite of "progress"?
1. He's sick of dealing with a 6-1 Democrat legislature and knows after recruiting alomst 130 candidates to run for the legislature for the first time in 2004 - only to see them all swept-up in the Francois Kerry tsunami - that ain't gonna change.
2. He beats Patrick by 5-7.
I have little to nothing to base those on other than gut.
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"I don't know." -- Helen Thomas, when asked by White House spokesman Scott McClellan, "Are we at war, Helen?"
I lived in MA/NH in the '70's & '80's and I remember (?) that politics was just weird. Is there any chance of Kerry ever getting beat?
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If "pro" is the opposite of "con", what is the opposite of "progress"?
Here's the deal: on nearly every issue - crime, immigration, taxes, spending, illegals, etc. the electorate favors Healey's positions by a nearly 2-1 margin. Yet that same electorate is going to elect Devolve Patrick by roughly the same margin. Go figure!
It is partly because KMH has run a God-awful horrible campaign as FWR mentions downthread. She is surrounded by people at the tip-top levels of her campaign who should be precinct captains at best - in part because our bench is as deep as a puddle in a newly-paved parking lot, and in part because she couldn't sign anyone else on. She is personally a very bright, positive, upbeat person with a good wit but you would never know that from the campaign she's run. She looks like an angry Stepford Wife.
But it's also due in no small part because this has been a corrination for Deval since the middle of the primary season. He's a certified lightweight, an empty suit of first calibre, but he's an ink-blot - no record, no positions, all sunshine. And this just happens to be one of those states - being a People's Republic and all - where a liberal can get away with that.
And no - there is no chance Jean Francios loses an election. He could rape a uniform-clad catholic high school freshman (male or female, don't matter) on stage with cameras rolling and still be able to blame George Bush for it convincingly with a narrow majority of the electorate - so deep in the advanced stages of BDS are they.
Sorry if that imagery was disturbing. It's late.
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"I don't know." -- Helen Thomas, when asked by White House spokesman Scott McClellan, "Are we at war, Helen?"
They troop religiously to the polls to vote for people who they know will enact policys they hate. I've given up trying to figure it out.
I've only lived here about 7-years now (12-years in CT prior - yippee!) and I've already given-up trying to figure them out. All they do is gripe about taxes being too high, gripe about homo marriage, gripe about the idiots in the legislature and the hacks in the government (all Democrats) - and then walk into the voting booth and vote a straight Democrat ticket.
It's enough to make me wonder why I gave-up alcohol - I think a state or perpetual inebriation must be to required to "get it" because sobrity ain't getting it done.
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"I don't know." -- Helen Thomas, when asked by White House spokesman Scott McClellan, "Are we at war, Helen?"
person to stick up for Mitt Romney, but on one point the column you quote is extremely unfair:
When you run for governor, it’s assumed that if you win you’ll seek re-election. It’s an implied promise, and you broke it.
There is no such thing as an implied promise in politics. Heck, in politics there are rarely any genuine promises at all, even of the spoken variety. And it is simply not true that everyone who runs for one term as governor will run for a second. My understanding of the political situation in Massachusetts is that Mitt Romney would not have been guaranteed a victory in the upcoming gubernatorial election, even though he has had a generally successful term. Consequently, he decided to seek greener pastures. That is a perfectly understandable move on his part.
A precedent embalms a principle.
- Disraeli
when the columnist wrote that it is assumed a first term governor will run for reelection, he's speaking of his own expectations. And those, almost certainly, of Romney's supporters in Massachusetts.
Romney cut the party loose. He cut Kerry Healey loose. All that is his choice, of course, but frankly, the odds are against him becoming a player for the 2008 Presidential nomination. This certainly will not help him, and he needs a heck of a lot more in the end than a few, scattered enthusiastic supporters.
I'm neither a Romney supporter nor Mitt opponent; just watching.
You can't blame Romney for Healey's lackluster campaign. Here is the real reason why she is crusing for a brusing on the 7th. (From the same Boston Globe story quoted up top):
"Her advisers, people who have proven themselves unfit to run a big-league gubernatorial campaign, convinced her at the outset that she had no choice. They tossed out her many moderate credentials. They threw away the accomplishments of the Romney administration. They showed no regard for what most people who know her know is a reasonably engaging personality."
Healey shunned Romney and his administration's record. She didnt want to be seen with him (even when he was campaigning for her). Plus her advisors have let her down. That's her fault because she chose to surround herself with people "who aren't ready to run a big league campaign."
http://www.boston.com/news/local/politics/candidates/articles/2006/10/27...
While Romney's conservative positions are not popular in a Blue State, it still doesnt make sense for Healey to try to run from the "Romney-Healey" administration record. That record is her record. She is part of the administration. How can you run a campaign if you dont want to higlight your accomplishments? Its completely illogical.
Healey's defeat will simply be the result of a poorly run campaign.

I haven't followed Carr's coverage of Romney over the years but for those not from Massachusetts, yes, Carr is a bare-knuckles conservative columnist and talk radio guy and longtime tormenter of Ted Kennedy.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill