MD-SEN: Cardin 49, Steele 46
SUSA's final poll shows race is still toss-up
By Adam C Posted in 2006 — Comments (12) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
SUSA's final poll was released today and finds the race to be a dead heat. Although the movement from the past two polls is in Cardin's favor, it is also within the margin of error.
Cardin 49 (47) (46)
Steele 46 (47) (46)
The internals of this poll have not been released yet. However, the news show that commissioned the poll mentions that "Steele gets 1 in 4 black votes." Steele must win 25% of the black vote to have a chance. If he wins 30% he is in good shape. If he win 35% then he should win the seat almost assuredly.
If the internals are released tonight, I will update with analysis. Here is the analysis of the SUSA poll on MD SEN released last week.
[UPDATE] While waiting for the SUSA internals here is the final Evans-Novak report on the Steele-Cardin race. Note that the Evans-Novack report is one of the more dispassionate pundit outlets in the country:
Maryland: The momentum in this race has all been going one way for weeks now. The problem is that for a Republican in Maryland, there is always such a long way to go. Not only has Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) run a near-flawless campaign, he has also benefited from several gaffes by his opponent, Rep. Ben Cardin (D) -- particularly one debate performance that can be described only as disastrous for Cardin.
Near the end, the two are tied in the polls. The question here is whether Steele will get the 12 percent of the black vote that those public polls suggest, or the 20-plus percent suggested by his internals.
The Braynard Group did a late poll for us showing Cardin leading, 48-38, and Steele attracting just 12 percent of the black vote. We had to consider this an outlier, particularly when Mason-Dixon, Survey USA, and the Baltimore Sun all showed a much closer race. However, the others may be missing something, and it is interesting how they share the 12 percent number in common.
The problem is that 12 percent would be consistent with a year in which Republicans did not win a single new black vote, and Steele has been collecting key endorsements from Democrats in the black community, and should do much better than the average Republican.
Steele may well outperform Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) on tomorrow's ballot, and we believe that both will win. Leaning Republican Takeover.
[UPDATE]: SUSA internals.
BLACK VOTE
Steele 25 (33) (25) (33)
Cardin 65 (57) (64) (63)
Undec. 2 (8) (9) (0)
BALTIMORE CITY
Steele 25 (35) (27) (27)
Cardin 51 (52) (65) (67)
Undec. 0 (11) (4) (0)
Note that the black vote is only 23% of this sample and was 26% of the last one. Notably, 8% of blacks and 24% of Baltimore city voters in this survey report they will vote for the Green party which may reflect some protest voting against the Democrats for neglegecting the black community. Steele is winning Indies 53-39 and losing Ds 78-16 while winning Rs 87-11. Steele must win more than 25% of the black vote to win. This will be a toss-up until all the votes are counted.
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MD-SEN: Cardin 49, Steele 46 12 Comments (0 topical, 12 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
SUSA has been leaning more Dem than the other polls this entire midterm.
(and as a Dem, I'm obviously rooting for Cardin), Steele's made important inroads in the black community. I'm no historian or statistician, but I'd imagine not many black GOP candidates for major offices have polled so well among other black people. He's run quite a campaign.
And it stands in contrast to the Keyes runs in MD before (and IL in 2004) as well as the Swann race in PA. Blackwell in OH has done well among black voters in the past and I'm a bit surprised he is doing so poorly this time around.
But Steele in MD has done what many of us who are fervent supporters of the black voter outreach efforts have hoped for. He has roots in the community. At the least, he has the respect of the community in Prince George's County. And that will go far in any election, much less one where an overarching theme is the Democrats inability to nominate any blacks to major offices despite black voters making up 40% of the state party.
It was interesting to read his analysis of the Senate racing. He has a net gain of only 2 by the Dems. This does not include MT. It could be a better night than anyone thinks tomorrow. If it happens, it will be spectacular to watch the Dems meltdown, kill their young, and hand their heads in shame.
and it would totally suck for him to lose to the boring man with no ethics, simply because he lacks the (D) beside his name.
I realize there is anger at the GOP out there, but I don't think it helps the party for good candidates to get booted to the curb.
Steele may pull this one off. When you first began to write about this race, Adam, I was afraid you were overly optimistic because this was in Maryland (I didn't post but thought this). Let me apologize for my previously unremarked thoughts, and commend you on some astute and in hindsight dispassionate (on your part) analysis of this race.
I was a little disheartened by the Cardin win. I think against Mfume, Steele would have been ahead by now. It changed the strategy of the race. If he wins, this is for the better. He has spent his time and energy in outreach to Prince George's County and black voters. But it is a steeper hill against Cardin.
I saw Steele at the 2004 RNC and was really impressed. When Sarbanes retired, I immediately hoped Steele would run. His campaigning ability is as good as his speaking ability. That has kept him afloat even in MD.
Looking at these internals I am skeptical that Steele has LOST black support over the last week. This final poll would relagate him to the share of the black vote won by Ehrlich, another proposition I find doubtful. As many have said, this race will come down to what percentage of the black vote Steele actually captures. There is a possibility that this race may demonstrate a reverse Wilder effect where black democrats will say they are voting Democratic or green but enter the both and pull a lever for a black Republican.
SUSA's weights for Missouri turnout in thier McCaskill +9 call
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=270d1bcf-18e3-40f2-895...
R D I
33% 42% 21%
The two candidates are basically tied among independents which is a great sign for Talent.
Well, although Steele is my fav candidate this election year, I think he's going down. Too much blue across that river.
I wonder if SurveyUSA's final MD Senate poll is as skewed as their final VA poll.
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