MD-SEN: Cardin (D-MD) loses support in black community
Major endorsements shift race in Steele's favor
By Adam C Posted in 2006 — Comments (14) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Here are the SUSA poll internals. In parentheses are the past two SUSA polls taken on 10/18 and 9/20. Note the partisan breakdown of the samples. This sample is 30R/49D/17I compared to 33R/51D/14I and 34R/50D/14I in the past two.
TOTAL
Steele 47 (46) (48)
Cardin 47 (46) (47)
Undec. 4 (4) (2)
BLACK VOTE
Steele 33 (25) (33)
Cardin 57 (64) (63)
Undec. 8 (9) (0)
BALTIMORE CITY
Steele 35 (27) (27)
Cardin 52 (65) (67)
Undec. 11 (4) (0)
Rep. Cardin has lost significant support in the black community, including in Baltimore city. These loses came after the major endorsements made by black Democratic leaders. SUSA seemed to be an outlier in earlier polls, but this sample has fewer Republicans than the past ones and is probably a better sample. More importantly, the trends can be analyzed and this is the first full poll since the black voter revolt in Prince George's county began. Among Baltimore city voters, Cardin lost, Steele gained, and many shifted to "undecided." Overall, all of Steele's gain among black voters came straight from Cardin supporters rather than from undecided voters. Those gains count double since Cardin loses a vote and Steele earns one.
Steele is not the favorite, but his decades of work in Prince George's County are paying off. He worked with many of the black Democrats there and they respect one another. After being disrespected by the Democratic leadership over the past few election cycles, these local leaders are now campaigning across party lines to help put Steele into the Senate. And this poll is the first piece of evidence that their efforts are working.
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MD-SEN: Cardin (D-MD) loses support in black community 14 Comments (0 topical, 14 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
but in case I'm wrong, I'll respond. If all you look at is the headline number, you are correct. But you are also missing large amounts of information that come from polls then. There is a notable and important shift occuring in the black vote. In PG county this may not be surprising given this week's happenings, but it seems to be occuring in Baltimore city as well. These are very significant developments. If you wish to ignore them, that is your choice. I look forward to a corroborating poll to compare to.
still oversamples Republicans a bit, but look at the movement in the black vote (at the same time as the downsize of the R sample): Cardin -7, Steele +8, and still 8 undecided, 2/3 of which I think will break to Steele (and if not, will probably be made up for with further leakage from Cardin's support as the effects of the endorsements continue to spread). blacks are twice as likely to be undecided as the population as a whole, which I guess translates to about 3 times the non-black population
Steele is going to win. and its going to change a lot of things.
The state went 56 Kerry / 43 Bush / 1 Nader in 2004. By how much CAN it be oversampling Republicans?
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If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
I don't want to sound silly, but how could the sample of Rs to Ds to Is change in just a few weeks in a state that is deep Blue?
Don't get me wrong. I hope Steele wins. He definitely has the "Big MO", and is taking the black vote from Cardin. But, did that many Ds just not answer the phone?
Sitting out is a vote for KOS.
Every sample is different, which is why multiple polls is good. FWIW, if the electorate shifted 3 points toward Democrats and Steele is still tied then it is progress. But since this sample matches '04 and the prior samples oversampled Rs by 3 points, "Ds not answering" is not a likely problem. More likely, the samples differed a little. This sample was probably better (unless the state is a few points more Republican than it was).
According to the exit polls, MD in 2004 was 48D/30R/22I. So the most recent sample is pretty in tune with the '04 results.
I will offer this.
If Steele is pulling 25-33% of the African American vote Cardin is toast. Bob Ehrlich won in 2002 with well under 25% of the African American vote.
If one believes, as I think that the anecdotal information indicates, that many are voting Steele because of a feeling of alienation from the Democrat party then one has to think this bodes well for Bob Ehrlich as well.
I have seen a ton of stupid (in terms of politics) Marylanders.
I have listened for years to the ignorant rationale for supporting liberal candidates of the past.
BUT
I have seen the records of and heard the rhetoric of the two Dem candidates (O'Malley and Cardin) and it doesnt get any dumber than these two! Talk about bankrupcy of ideals!!
Blacks in MD have thrown in the towel on the Democrats! They have been held down for too many years by the liberals in this state. Its all over.
I dont know how many Marylanders are represented here, maybe they will agree, but I see and feel the momentum. Its in the air! And Cardin and O Malley keep digging thier graves day by day.
These two Republicans will shock everyone in America except those who live here in the Baltimore area!
Once again proof that liberalism fails whereever it is tried! Some voters realize it sooner than later but eventuality is on our side. Marylanders get it finally.
The most interesting thing about this poll is that the make-up of 26% African American. Somewhere this week, I either heard or read, that the Ehrlich campaign is expecting something like 18-19% Black vote.
Attributing that lower than normal (22 odd%) AA percentage to a number who will not vote Republican, so they will sit this one out. Makes some sense, since I know Ehrlich has worked fairly well with AA leaders in Baltimore.
If that is in fact true, the numbers move comfortably in Steele's & Ehrlich's favor.
One other tid bit, probably already known to those on this board, yesterday at a Prince Georges rally with Sen. Obama, a Democrat State Senator confronted Cardin after the rally for not being announced at the rally. Cardin's comment was in essence...No bid deal, he's supporting us. That's the attitude which seems to be at the root of his AA problems.
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every minute of it!
one of the Maryland polls assumes a 19% black turnout (IIRC the SUSA poll). Another Maryland poll assumes a 22% turnout. This has nothing to do with the Ehrlich campaign but is merely the differing population weighting assumptions for two different polls.
For a Democrat to, in the largest city in the state, be struggling to get up to 50% of the vote (the difference in still within the margin of error right now) is absolutely disastrous. Dems tend to be able to shore up losses in suburban and rural areas by enforcing a stranglehold over the urban centers... without those, explain to me how Cardin can win.
"I could explain, but that would be very long, very convoluted, and make you look very stupid. Nobody wants that... except maybe me."
In 2002, Ehrlich and Steele shifted their campaign's into 5th gear in the final weeks and days leading up to election day. The same is happening this year.
First, the MD GOP's ground game and GOTV efforts made huge strides in 2002. They've only improved in 2004.
Second, Ehrlich and Steele have both achieved their media goals in the final week of the campaign. They've effectively engineered it so everyone on the street is talking about the surge of Ehrlich and Steele: Steele's laid back approach and common-man-knowledge, and Ehrlich's successes the past 4 years and his fresh ideas...
And third, They've run a tight ship and neither of them has slipped up. By being perfect in their words, deeds and actions (as well as the actions of those working on their respective campaigns) they've been able to bring attention to Cardin and O'Malley's mishaps (I.E. the recent "he's supporting us" Cardin lipservice/slap-in-the-face/disrespect of a Democratic State Senator)
I'm not from Maryland, but I'm from Delaware. I cross into MD near-daily, hear and watch the ad-wars, and get the news (radio and TV)... Steele and Ehrlich have the BIG MO, and I'm convinced they're both going to win.
show a tie. Nothing has changed.